The Latest from Iran (5 March): The Election? So Far, It's a Muddle

See also Iran Opinion: Why Iranians Voted in the 2012 Elections
Iran Elections Snapshot: The #1 Subversive Moment "They're All the Same"
Iran Snap Analysis: Rearranging the Political Chairs --- What Has Changed?
The Latest from Iran (4 March): The Play-Acting of the Election

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1747 GMT: Oil Watch. Industry sources say India's largest customer for Iranian oil plans to cut daily imports by almost 50%.

State-run Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd could reduce imports to as little as 80,000 barrels per day from 1 April, the sources said. MRPL usually buys 150,000 bpd.

The report is further evidence that while New Delhi publicly says it will not comply with US-led, the Indian Government has privately instructed refineries to cut imports.

India, China and Japan buy almost half of Iran's estimated 2.6 million barrels per day of oil exports,

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Iran Snap Analysis: Rearranging the Political Chairs --- What Has Changed?

A year ago, at the height of the conflict between the Supreme Leader and President Ahmadinejad --- marked by the fight to control the Ministry of Intelligence, and culminating in the President's defeat and an 11-day boycott of his duties --- we assessed that Ahmadinejad was now a "lame-duck" occupant of his office. He would not be removed, as this was cause instability and more in-fighting over the issue of who would replace him, but he would be contained and constricted by his rivals and the Supreme Leader's office.

And so it goes. The President will serve out the last year of his term, with more pressure put on those around him, such as Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai. But he is unlikely to do more than put out his rhetoric and proclaim the myth of his legacy.

The bigger question, for example, is whether the Supreme Leader's office has arranged a Parliamentary outcome that guarantees it will have no problems with the Parliament as well as the President.

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The Latest from Iran (2 March): The Parliamentary Elections

Maya Neyestani on today's "historic" election

See also Iran Special: A Beginner's Guide to Today's Parliamentary Elections
Iran Snap Analysis: So Who is "Winning" These Elections?
The Latest from Iran (1 March): The Issue Is Legitimacy

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2055 GMT: ANd now a good-news story from the elections....

The 100-year-old man in Hamedan voted and died (see 1215 GMT), and the 95-year-old man in Damavand said, ""God, please accept this vote from me" and passed away (see 1645), but the 117-year-old man in Gonbad-e Qabus cast his ballot and lived.

2030 GMT: Well, I now have first-hand experience of how Iranian media handle news and analysis about this election.

Fars has not only noted my interview with BBC Persian; they are presenting it as if I had spoken to them. The headline is a selective extract, reflecting Fars' emphasis, of my comments, "The Western Leaders Don't Have a Clear Understanding of the Iranian Elections".

To be fair, Fars does fairly repeat some of my remarks, such as this election is too complex to be "Conservatives v. Clergy" and "The election is less about foreign policy than it is about Iran's internal affairs, economics, political accountability, and even topics such as judicial and legal rights."

What is interesting is what is left out or abbreviated. Fars' "interview" forgets to include my remarks that this election --- crucially --- is about the legitimacy of not only the Government but also the regime. And while the site does accurately mention my comment, "Reformists had no chance in this election of achieving some kind of political power", it indicates this was the main reason for their boycott of the vote --- conveniently omitting the rest of my analysis that the strategy was to raise question marks about the regime: "The message, following the 2009 Presidential election protests ie not just "Where is my vote?" but "Where is my government's responsibility?"

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Iran Snap Analysis: So Who is "Winning" These Elections?

A day before Iranians vote in Parliamentary elections, who's winning?

We do not know. And we will not know for some time to come. The messy truth beyond the easy narrative of Supreme Leader v. President Ahmadinejad is that the lists of candidates do not work that way, and the vote itself will not yield a "dominant" faction.

In the meantime, there is another, far different measure of "winner" and "loser". Almost all the factions and, more importantly, the Supreme Leader have put their chips on a high turnout in the vote. If that does not materialise, then all will suffer a blow to legitimacy.

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The Latest from Iran (29 February): Playing the Numbers Game

Nikahang Kowsar "Defrosting the Elections" --- His journalist to the Supreme Leader, "Haji, be careful that your beard doesn't get burned!"

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1829 GMT: All the President's Men. The one-year prison sentence of Ali Akbar Javanfekr, President Ahmadienjad’s media advisor, was confirmed today by an appellate court.

Javanfekr, who is also editor of Iran newspaper, was charged with “insulting the Supreme Leader” because of comments on his blog. He was also given a five-year ban from political activity.

1818 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Analyst Robin Mills notes the story, mentioned in Tuesday's Live Coverage, that Iran will accept gold rather than foreign currency with other countries because of sanctions. He adds, "Also willing to be paid in rice, used socks, etc."

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The Latest from Iran (26 February): Bashing the BBC, Jailing the Journalists

See also Iran Opinion: Myth and Reality About Nuclear Ambitions
Iran Snapshot: When the Revolutionary Guards Confuse Computer Viruses with Condoms
Iran Snapshot: Kentucky Fried Chicken or No Kentucky Fried Chicken? That is the Question
The Latest from Iran (25 February): A Far-from-Simple Election

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Journalist Marzieh Rassouli (see 0550 GMT)2028 GMT: CyberWatch. The "Hezbollah Cyber Army" hacked the website of the reformist Assembly of Combatant Clerics today to post the message: "I participate in elections. With God's wisdom, the great Iran nation will put supporters of the US line of an election boycott in their place."

The Assembly has already replaced the text with a quote from former President Mohammad Khatami, "Nothing will appease people but ruling their fate themselves."

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The Latest from Iran (24 February): Here a Deviant Current, There a Deviant Current

See also Iran Document & Snap Analysis: The IAEA Report on Tehran's Nuclear Programme
Iran 1st-Hand Video: A 53-Minute Look at Life, Politics, and the Economy
The Latest from Iran (23 February): Don't Panic!

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2045 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Dr. Sadegh Akhoundi, associate professor in the Department of Orthodontics at Tehran University's School of Dentistry, has been arrested.

1950 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Police in Sanandaj in northwest Iran arrested dozens of people at a meeting of a mountain climbing group last Friday.

The reason for the detentions is not clear.

Since the arrests, families of those arrested have gathered daily outside the Intelligence Office for news. A source said the Intelligence Office has promised the families to release the detainees on bail of about 40 million Toman (about $2000) each.

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The Latest from Iran (15 February): The Momentum of Protest, Part 2

1905 GMT: Oil Watch. Looks like Tehran has got itself in a muddle with today's grandstanding announcements. While the Ministry of Oil is saying exports to six European countries will be cut off, Hassan Tajik, the Foreign Ministry's deputy for Western Europe, is assuring that supplies will continue.

1850 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Saeed Jalili, the Secretary of the National Security Council, has sent a note to Catherine Ashton, the foreign policy representative for the European Union, about renewed talks on Iran's nuclear programme.

A spokeswoman said Ashton is consulting with the "5+1" Powers --- the US, Britain, France, Russia, China, and Germany --- on a response.

Tehran's letter was revealed as President Ahmadinejad made the announcement that Iran could now produce fuel rods of 19.75% uranium for the Tehran Research Reactor, making medical isotopes. Ahmadinejad also said that new centrifuges at the Natanz facility have "a three-fold higher capacity" compared to older models, boosting Iran's capacity to produce 3.5% lower-enriched nuclear fuel by 50%.

1714 GMT:. Claim of the Day. MP Morteza Agha Tehrani, the head of the Unity Front list of candidates, has asserted that the Islamic Republic has become a model for the world, with even the biggest US philosophers respecting Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi --- the head of the Islamic Constancy Front --- and ceding their speaking time to him.

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The Latest from Iran (11 February): Watching the Revolution's Anniversary

See also Iran Breaking: Tehran Worried US May Be Building 8500th Nuclear Weapon
The Latest from Iran (10 February): A Radio Debate Brings Back the 2009 Election

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1838 GMT: Protest Watch. Peyke Iran, using photographs from Mehr, has a must-see comparison of the pro-regime crowd today and the demonstration after the disputed Presidential election. Two of the images --- the first from 11 February 2011; the second from 15 June 2009.

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The Latest from Iran (7 February): Campaign Season

See also Iran Feature: A Middle Class on Edge
Iran Film Special: The Simpsons Are Gone, But You Can Still See Shrek in Tehran
The Latest from Iran (6 February): "The Regime Will Demolish Ahmadinejad"

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1917 GMT: Oil Watch (China Front). Evidence that China is joining the squeeze on Iran over Tehran's oil exports...

Beijing, Iran's biggest customer, has said publicly that it will not join US-led sanctions; however, in January and February, it has halved its crude from Tehran. Now industry sources say China is increasing its supplies from Saudi Arabia, which has raised production since December.

Beijing is also importing more cargoes from West Africa, Russia, and Australia to replace reduced supplies from Iran.

China takes around 20% of Iran's total exports. Since January, it has cut purchases by around 285,000 barrels per day (bpd), just over half of the total daily amount it imported in 2011. At the same time, Beijing has purchased an additional 200,000 bpd from Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabian output reached 9.76 million barrels per day (bpd) in December, up 360,000 bpd from October, and remained near that level in January.

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