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Entries in Ahmad Tavakoli (102)

Friday
May132011

The Latest from Iran (13 May): Friday the 13th

1935 GMT: Karroubi Watch. An interesting intervention by Mehdi Karroubi's advisor Ahmad Vahidi in an interview with Khodnevis....

Vahidi, who is based in the US, made a distinction between Karroubi and the Green Path Coordinating Council of the opposition. He said that neither he nor any of Karroubi's associates held memberships in the Council, although they had been consulted by them.

Vahidi continued that those on the Council had views similar to Karroubi's in regards to free and fair election and people's rights. However, he indicated that "the goal of the movement should not be restricted to the application of the Consitution", adding that people's demands are beyond what the Council offers.

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Monday
May092011

The Latest from Iran (9 May): Ahmadinejad Bows Down?

1900 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The husband of detained human rights lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh says she has been cut off from her family for the past 10 days.

Reza Khandan said he has not been allowed telephone contact with his wife since she was transferred to a different ward in Evin Prison.

Sotoudeh was sentenced in December to 11 years in prison and a 20-year ban on the practice of law.

1855 GMT: Fashion Police. More on Iran's "moral security" force (see 1215 GMT), with 70,000 officers reportedly taking to the streets to enforce proper fashion and behaviour....

Commander Ahmad Rouzbehani, the head of the force, explained, “In some instances, some people have been seen to take off their head covering in their vehicles. Such vehicles will be stopped and their passengers will be referred to the judiciary.”

Commander Rouzbehani also listed “installation of satellite dishes and sale of alcoholic drinks” as violations.

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Monday
Apr182011

The Latest from Iran (18 April): A Matter of Intelligence --- Ahmadinejad v. Khamenei?

2115 GMT: A Matter of Intelligence. Ali Akbar Javanfekr, former media advisor to President Ahmadinejad and now managing director of State news agency IRNA, reinforces his paper's line (see 2030 GMT): "The lying media, claiming the aupreme leader has refused the change of the intelligence minister, are executing new scenarios against the government and pretending the president isn't loyal to the supreme leader. Changing a minister in such a strategic and important ministry is impossible without coordination between the president and the dear supreme Leader."

2050 GMT: Claim of Day. Tahavol-e Sabz asserts that a domestic flight was cancelled because of the high price of fuel, which has tripled recently. The website says a senior deputy of the Ministry of Oil stopped the flight at Mehrabad Airport in Tehran, even though President Ahmadinejad ordered payment on credit for domestic airlines.

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Tuesday
Mar292011

The Latest from Iran (29 March): The Party's Over

2030 GMT: Cartoon of the Day (Iran-Syria Special). Maya Nayestani depicts a special message from Tehran to Damascus, a woman explaining to her friend, "He is sending a smoke signal to Bashar al-Assad":

2015 GMT: The House Arrests. Kalemeh updates on the house arrest/detention of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Zahra Rahnavard....

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Monday
Mar282011

The Latest from Iran (28 March): Politics Resumes

1800 GMT: Economy Watch. Prominent economist Saeed Leylaz has declared that the main problem of the Iranian economy is domestic mismanagement rather than foreign sanctions, adding that smuggling is $20 billion per year.

1755 GMT: Labour Front. Claimed video of a strike on 19 March at the Bandar Imam Petrochemical Complex in Mahshahr in southwestern Iran:

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Sunday
Mar272011

The Latest from Iran (27 March): A Regime Party

1525 GMT: Back to the Regime Party. Iranian media have released pictures of regional Presidents being treated by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at Nowruz festivities. Not sure it's a 100% success, however --- Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai appears to be sleeping through the entertainment.

Better news for Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdimuhammadov --- Ahmadinejad gave him a two-seater LSA airplane worth $130,000.

Last week, Berdimuhammadov sent a thousand tons of flour to Iran for Nowruz.

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Friday
Mar182011

Iran Special: A Rafsanjani Alliance with "Moderate Conservatives"?

Watch these references to "unity" from Rafsanjani and the "moderate conservatives". They may indeed mark a unification --- one which is not of support for the Government, but of the forging of an alliance to challenge Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his closest allies.

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Friday
Mar112011

Iran Analysis: Why This is the Political Demise of Hashemi Rafsanjani (Tehrani)

Rafsanjani and Mahdavi-KaniAfter 30 years of patient mediation as the Islamic Republic’s quintessential “crisis man”, Rafsanjani has been shunted aside because, in the words of his brother, “no one listens to him anymore”. Despite paying lip service to the Leader, maintaining control over the largely spent Expediency Council and calling for internal unity, Rafsanjani is moving closer and closer to becoming a ceremonial figure, one whose capacity for scheming and plotting is diminishing by the day.

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Wednesday
Mar022011

The Latest from Iran (2 March): Marching Through the Blackout

2135 GMT: Economy Watch. Voice of America profiles the five- to ten-fold increase in domestic gas prices after the removal of subsidy cuts.

2125 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Farah Vazehan, arrested after the Ashura demonstration of December 2009, has been sentenced to 17 years in prison.

Vazehan was originally condemned to death.

Reformist activist Davoud Kahnamooei was arrested in Tabriz during Tuesday's protests.

Kahnamooei is a member of the East Azerbaijan branch of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front and of Mir Hossein Mousavi's 2009 Presidential campaign.

Three other activists distributing green wristbands have also been detained.

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Friday
Feb182011

Iran Analysis: Walking the Same Green Tightrope

The regime knows that it must contain Mousavi and Karroubi. Karroubi and Mousavi know that they have to increase pressure on the regime. The people know that they must march. Yesterday's call for more protests finally hint that neither Mousavi or Karroubi are in a mood to compromise; the rhetoric to prosecute or execute the reformist leaders indicate that the regime is unwilling to negotiate.

Someone is going to fall off this tightrope. Someone is going to concede ground, or charge ahead further than they have ever gone. If this happens, expect widespread unrest and chaos in the streets, because this will be the minute the opposition moves from dissent to rebellion.

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