The Latest from Iran (21 February): The Contest Continues

2155 GMT: The 1 Esfand Casualty. Shiraz University students have announced a week of mourning for Hamed Nourmohammadi, who was allegedly thrown off a bridge by security forces during Sunday's protests.

2135 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Singer and composer Afshin Taheri was detained on Tuesday and is in an unknown location.

2125 GMT: 1 Esfand. Setareh Sabety offers an overview and crisp analysis of the significance of Sunday's opposition marches:

1st Esfand (Feb.20) was big enough to show that 25th Bahman (Feb.14) was not a single outburst inspired by the events in Tunis and Egypt but rather the revival of an opposition movement that continues to show signs of resilience. Iranians are pragmatists and unlike their Arab neighbors have recent experience with revolution. They will not risk life and limb unless they are sure that they are on the winning side. 1st Esfand was a step in the winning direction for the opposition in Iran.

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Latest Iran Video: The Protests of 1 Esfand

Protests Against the Supreme Leader

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The Latest from Iran (20 February): So What Happens on 1 Esfand?

2225 GMT: More Political Prisoners. Tehran University School of Science student Sohrab Jafari and law student Habib Farahzadi were arrested today.

2135 GMT: More 1 Esfands. In an interview with Radio Farda, Mehdi Karroubi's advisor Mojtaba Vahedi gets to the point: he is impressed with the turnout today and there will be more protests until demands are met.

Vahedi adds that mounting casualties will only have the same effect as 1979, building up a rally of mourning.

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The Latest from Iran (19 February): Is That All There Is?

2150 GMT: 1 Esfand. Students at 14 Azad (Technical) Universities around Iran have announced their support of Sunday's rallies.

In an interview with the Green outlet RASA TV, Mir Hossein Mousavi's advisor Ardeshir Amir Arjomand confirms that Sunday's marches go ahead even though Mousavi is under house arrest:

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Iran Analysis: Walking the Same Green Tightrope

The regime knows that it must contain Mousavi and Karroubi. Karroubi and Mousavi know that they have to increase pressure on the regime. The people know that they must march. Yesterday's call for more protests finally hint that neither Mousavi or Karroubi are in a mood to compromise; the rhetoric to prosecute or execute the reformist leaders indicate that the regime is unwilling to negotiate.

Someone is going to fall off this tightrope. Someone is going to concede ground, or charge ahead further than they have ever gone. If this happens, expect widespread unrest and chaos in the streets, because this will be the minute the opposition moves from dissent to rebellion.

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The Latest from Iran (18 February): Another Regime Show

2210 GMT: Khabar Online reports on the slogans against Hashemi Rafsanjani in today's pro-government rally in Tehran. They included: 

Master of cunning, Akbar Rafsanjani

Akbar R., Iranian Mubarak

Aghazadeh [Mehdi Hashemi?], your father has gone to the dogs

Be ashamed, quit bargaining

Hashemi, Where is you honour, Faezeh [Raffers daughter], where is your chastity?

2200 GMT: Here are pictures from the government-sponsored 'anti-sedition' rally held in Tehran today. The first image shows protesters getting handed signs. 

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Iran Analysis: The Opposition Responds to The Regime's Hatred Rally

The call for the marches of 1 Esfand may not bring public success. Indeed, the regime's trump card --- even if it cannot repress the Green movement out of existence --- is that it can make coverage of the opposition marches so difficult that an approximate measurement of what has occurred is difficult. In particular, the reaction of the Iranian population, beyond those dedicated to either a pro-regime or anti-regime path, is hard to guage. And, as Mr Tehrani evaluated this week, the opposition faces difficult questions over its methods and aim beydon the short-term.

 However, for the first time since February 2010, the regime does not have the public arena all to itself. That could be a small but significant shift in the political contest. 

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