The Latest from Iran (2 March): Marching Through the Blackout

2135 GMT: Economy Watch. Voice of America profiles the five- to ten-fold increase in domestic gas prices after the removal of subsidy cuts.

2125 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Farah Vazehan, arrested after the Ashura demonstration of December 2009, has been sentenced to 17 years in prison.

Vazehan was originally condemned to death.

Reformist activist Davoud Kahnamooei was arrested in Tabriz during Tuesday's protests.

Kahnamooei is a member of the East Azerbaijan branch of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front and of Mir Hossein Mousavi's 2009 Presidential campaign.

Three other activists distributing green wristbands have also been detained.

2005 GMT: The Arrests. AFP picks up on a key sentence in the report presented by a Parliamentary Committee to the full Majlis today (see 1355 GMT), pointing to a trial for Mir Hossein and Mehdi Karroubi, "This committee based on proof and evidence sees the need for prosecution of Mr. Mousavi and Karroubi and their dependents, and frankly announces that the Majlis can no longer accept any justification for [the judiciary] not taking action."

2000 GMT: A Glitch in the Ceremony (cont.). Earlier today (1600 GMT) we noted that a member of the audience in Khorramabad in western Iran for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's speech had greeted him with the poster, "We Are Hungry".

An EA reader points us to another photograph of the occasion --- the purple sign below, held just in front of the podium where Ahmadinejad was speaking, declares, "Swear to God, we have had enough of discrimination and injustice."

Photo: ISNA

1955 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Blogger Payman Roshanzamir has been released on bail from Karoon Prison in Ahwaz.

1945 GMT: Clarification. The Assembly of Experts meeting, including the election of the leader, will be next Monday and Tuesday, 7-8 October March.

Hashemi Rafsanjani is trying to retain his position as head of the Assembly.

1925 GMT: Clerical Intervention. Ayatollah Dastgheib has called on the authorities to free Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, allowing them to state their case on State television and radio.

Dastgheib, a prominent critic of the Government, has again condemned the illegal and illegitimate acts of the Ahmadinejad administration and called on his fellow senior religious figures and scholars to break their silence and side with the truth and the people.

Dastgheib also criticised the role of the Guardian Council in the vetting process for nominees in elections, emphasising that the Council should not have the power to disqualify nominees from running. He condemned the performance and policies of state-run TV and radio stations: "[They] The are only following the orders of the higher ranking authorities instead of trying to fulfill people's demands. They broadcast biased programs and false accusations without giving the chance to those being falsely accused to defend themselves."

Dastgheib claimed the armed forces, especially the Revolutionary Guards, are interfering in political affairs of the country for the benefit of a certain movement.

1830 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Another twist in the conflict around former President Hashemi Rafsanjani....

The head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, has said that he will not accept attacks on the family members of Iran's officials and added that the Supreme Leader has condemned them.

Although he did not name a specific official, the statement is a clear reference to this week's harassment --- caught on video --- of Rafsanjani's daughter Faezeh Hashemi.

This is not a political intervention by Larijani on behalf of Rafsanjani's battle, against the supporters of the President, to retain his leadership of the Assembly of Experts. It does, however, set limits on what tactics are acceptable in the ongoing maneouvres for influence.

1610 GMT: Protest in Paris. On Tuesday, activists painted graffiti on the residence of the Iranian Ambassador to France. Six were arrested but released in time to join a protest on Tuesday.

1600 GMT: A Glitch in the Ceremony. BBC Persian reports that, at the speech of President Ahmadinejad in Khorramabad in Lorestan Province in western Iran today, a member of the audience held up a banner, "We Are Hungry".

Photo: ISNA

1540 GMT: The Arrests. On Tuesday, the President of the European Parliament, Jerzy Buzek, declared, "I am deeply concerned by the arrest of the Iranian opposition leaders Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi....I firmly condemn this attempt at the personal integrity of the highest representatives of the democratic opposition in Iran. Their arrest is unfounded and unjustified by all standards. This attempt at intimidation is a grave violation of the most basic principles of democracy and justice."

1530 GMT: The 10 Esfand Protests. Saham News has claimed at least 79 people were arrested in yesterday's protests. Earlier today, another opposition website, Kalemeh said about 200 people in Tehran alone had been detained (see 0830 GMT).

Another eyewitness account, via Tehran Bureau:

Last night the Green Zone was completely blacked out communication wise. Though the Internet and telephone lines were working elsewhere, the regime managed to disconnect the demonstrators' electronically and even physically in the Zone. The security forces initially created a wall and after the demonstrations reached its peak, moved in for the kill: tear gas, pepper gas, paint-guns (to paint demonstrators and easily catch them afterwards), rubber bullets, and around 7 p.m. near Enghelab Square, the sound of live ammunition. There were hundreds of arrests and hundreds got beaten and sprayed. I was with a group of friends and we last saw each other around 6:30 on Enghelab Avenue. We all ran in different directions and I have not managed to contact [one of them] ever since.

The Green Zone however seemed to be expanding rapidly and late in the evening, when I got back home, I heard of unrest in Islam Shahr (a small working class town in southwest Tehran). This news is extremely interesting as it would mean that members of the lower classes are also joining the movement. Another welcome piece of news was that [about] Grand Ayatollah Dastgheib in Shiraz (whose brother was murdered by the MEK while praying in a mosque). Ayatollah Dastgheib, who is a member of Khobregan [Assembly of Experts], is challenging the Supreme Leader's decisions both based on human rights and that of Islamic scholarly teachings. So someone from the religious circle of the Grand Ayatollahs is still brave enough to directly challenge the leader. And the last piece of news that cleared the tears off my tear gas covered face was that the price of oil increased due to the unrest in Iran. Perhaps this is an indication that the international business community is losing faith in the regime and that the Islamic Republic cannot continue to buy business people elsewhere and keep on killing its own people.

1515 GMT: The 10 Esfand Protests. Another attempt by the regime to push away Tuesday's demonstrations, this time from Iran Prosecutor General Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie: "The Zionists and US make videos of a minor act and make it sound like Iranians are protesting and are unhappy."

1355 GMT: The Arrests. More efforts by the regime today to build the case for the detentions of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi. The head of the Iranian judiciary, Sadegh Larijani --- who reportedly opposed the detentions but was overruled --- has said that the regime had offered a recount after the disputed June 1989 Presidential elections; if violations were found, the poll would be cancelled. Larijani asserted that Mousavi and Karroubi turned down the offer.

Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has commanded Iranian authorities to act on the findings of a Parliamentary "enquiry" into the protests of 14 February, which claimed to link Mousavi and Karroubi to the US and Israeli Governments.

1330 GMT: The Arrests. Mehdi Karroubi’s son Mohammad Taghi has again denied the claims by authorities that his parents, government Mir Hossein Mousavi, and Zahra Rahnavard are in their houses. Mohammad Taghi Karroubi claims his parents were transferred to an unknown location 20 days ago, before the opposition resumed public marches on 14 February.

The statement left open the possibility that the Karroubis have been taken, as initially reported this weekend, to a "house of detention", controlled by the security forces, rather than to a prison.

Mohammad Taghi is the only one of Karroubi's three sons able to speak out --- his brother Ali was detained in a raid on the family's residences last month and his brother Hossein is in hiding, avoiding arrest.

1320 GMT: The Arrests. Sweden has summoned the Iranian Ambassador to protest the detentions of Mir Hossein Mousavi, Zahra Rahnavard, and Mehdi and Fatemeh Karroubi.

Both officials, such as Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi, and supportive media like Kayhan continues to hold the line that the arrests have not occured and that the four opposition figures are still in their houses.

1310 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. The President addressed a crowd in Lorestan in western Iran today, warning the US and its allies against interventions in North Africa and the Middle East and claiming they are falsely presenting themselves as defenders of human rights.

1300 GMT: The 10 Esfand Protests. Rah-e-Sabz summarises that there were demonstrations in Tehran, Shiraz, Isfahan, Tabriz, Rasht, Eslamshahr, and Mashhad. It adds that "hundreds" participated in a silent protest in Kermanshah.

0940 GMT: A Correction. I apologise for an error in the opening analysis (see 0545 GMT). In the observation that foreign journalists in Tehran were shut away by authorities and thus unable to cover Tuesday's demonstrations, I mentioned Thomas Erdbrink of The Washington Post by name.

Erdbrink's article is able to cite several witnesses, quoting from a phone call with one, as well as drawing from opposition websites to cover --- in difficult conditions --- the protests.

0925 GMT: Rafsanjani Rafsanjani Watch. EA reader "TheReed", in comments below, finds a new statement from former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and offer an incisive interpretation, pointing to Rafsanjani's positioning as he faces a challenges to his posts within the system:

Rafsanjani had an interesting write-up on his site today where he didn't back off in his criticisms against the government. He criticised the absurdity of the President telling international media that there are no political prisoners in Iran, claiming that everyone knows that not to be true. He also criticized the Revolutionary Guard for acting as it pleases, and not according to the orders of the Supreme Leader, or other commanders in charge. He kept arguing that Ahmadinejad and certain figures in the Revolutionary Guard are sullying the Supreme Leader's name by their actions (specifically mentioning that the Supreme Leader constantly expresses surprise and worry when Rafsanjani tells him of the individuals who are being arrested). He rationalized the Supreme Leader's unwillingness to be more directly involved by claiming that there are both too many cases for his capacity to review each one, and that the atmosphere of fear that has been created by Seda va Sima (the state broadcasting service) has made security a priority. He argued that this atmosphere of fear is created and used by certain groups to further their own aims and is not in the national interest.

He argued that he still believes that there are five or six steps that could help alleviate the situation. He listed three of them: 1) Freeing political prisoners; 2) Inclusion of all views on state broadcasts; and 3) Adherence to the law by all (including the Guardian Council which failed to be nonpartisan during the elections).

0900 GMT: The 10 Esfand Protests. The opposition website Akhbar Rooz posts a spirited evaluation of Tuesday's demonstrations, "The Streets Demand the Dismissal of the Dictator".

The commentary claims that the regime has failed with its trump card, as the arrests of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi did not halt protests. It claims there were demonstrations from the north to south of Tehran, including workers.

0845 GMT: The Battle Within. Leading conservative MP Ahmad Tavakoli has again attacked President Ahmadinejad. Tavakoli said Ahmadinejad was "racist" in his treatment of Persian history and literature, "insulting Islam and insulting civilisation".

0830 GMT: The 10 Esfand Protests. Kalemeh, summarising protests and clashes, claims there were about 200 arrests in Tehran during yesterday's demonstrations.

0720 GMT: An Illuminating Interview. Yesterday, Tehran University academic Seyed Mohammad Marandi made his first appearance on CNN since 2009. He restates the common claim of Iranian media and authorities that the people are rejecting Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, who caused post-election riots, even making the (unsupported, to our knowledge) assertion that "reformists" have broken with Mousavi.

Much more interesting, however, is the combination of Marandi on the protests and the detentions of Mousavi and Karroubi --- he does not acknowledge these have occurred --- and his claim, "There is a great deal of openness in the country."

And the recent theatre in Parliament, with pro-Ahmadinejad legislators calling for the death penalty for Mousavi and Karroubi? A few people chanting slogans. That is symbolic."

0700 GMT: Nothing to See Here, Move Along (Revised). An update on the entry below....

While state media such as IRNA are not mentioning Tuesday's protests, other Iranian outlets are taking the line that there were small gatherings that failed. Tabnak claims that there were groups of "10-15 counter-revolutionaries" in Tehran locations such as Vali Asr, Enghelab Street, and Keshavarz Boulevard but they were quickly dispersed. Thus, the attempt by foreign media, such as BBC Persian, to bring people to the streets had failed.

The "hard-line" Raja News goes further in portraying any protest as part of the foiled plot of Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami, supported by the BBC. The website says that any demonstration was far less than that on 14 February (25 Bahman) --- interestingly, however, Raja puts the number in the protest at "thousands", which is more than any other Iranian official or semi-official outlet has admitted.

And while IRNA is not accepting any sign of protest on Tuesday, it is pushing --- perhaps curiously, if no one is turning out on the streets --- the threat of "sedition". Far from coincidentally, Parliament is receiving a report from a Committee "inquiring" into 25 Bahmanl, withe the conclusion of contact between the US, Israel, and the "leaders of sedition". IRNA also features a statement from Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani that "Iran's response to America will be strong and bitter" and a cleric's denunciation of "fitna" (sedition).

0625 GMT: Nothing to See Here, Move Along. Perhaps needless to say, Iranian state media is not mentioning any protest on Tuesday. After all, the outlets --- having put out the regime that the demonstrations of 14 February were only of few supporters of "terrorism" and "sedition" --- refused to accept that any demonstration took place on 20 February, claiming that any extra people on the streets were getting an early start in their shopping for Iranian New Year. And the detentions of Mir Hossein Mousavi, Zahra Rahnavard, and Mehdi and Fatemeh Karroubi are still being denied by Iranian officials.

The President's office contents itself with two pronouncements: Ahmadinejad met the new Ambassador of China and explained, "The current system of the world is old and rotten and its unjust nature has now become clear to everyone." And the President discussed bilateral and regional cooperation in a phone call with Oman's leader, Sultan Qaboos.

0600 GMT: And As Well as the Marches.... It should not be forgotten that there are also important battles within the Iranian system this week. The immediate contest is over the leadership of the Assembly of Experts, where pro-Ahmadinejad forces are trying to depose former President Hashemi Rafsanjani.

The campaign of Ayatollah Mahdavi-Kani, the man chosen to get rid of Rafsanjani, is now claiming that it has the support of 50 of the 80 members of the Assembly of Experts. 

A sharp-eyed observer of Iranian politics summarises for an Italian newspaper: "Rafsanjani's departure from his position in the Assembly of Experts could serve as a corollary to the strengthening of those branches within the Islamic regime who are intent on putting an end, once and for all, to the activities of the suddenly-revived Green Wave."

An Iran-based EA correspondent, who also believes Mahdavi Kani will win, puts another possibility: "Rafsanjani's defeat may mean that he finally has to choose, for his survival, to come off the fence and align himself with the opposition."

0545 GMT: It is taking even longer than on 25 Bahman (14 February) and 1 Esfand (20 February) to get a full picture of yesterday's opposition marches in Tehran and other Iranian cities. The handful of foreign correspondents who have been operating in the Iranian capital appear to have been shut away, their licenses revoked, by the authorities.

(There were exceptions --- Thomas Erdbrink of The Washington Post, who has been in Tehran throughout the crisis, was able to cite several witnesses as well as drawing upon opposition websites. However, AFP's report was distingushed by a glaring error --- "Security forces, deployed in large numbers, fired tear gas at people chanting "Ya Hossein, Mir Hossein!" in support of Mousavi as well as "Death to the Dictator," referring to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the main target of the protests." The Dictator chant is not directed at Ahmadinejad; it is meant for the Supreme Leader, a sign of how far the marchers are going in their call for change.)

However, the network of LiveBlogs now established to cover Iran, despite the restrictions, was able to draw on witnesses inside the country for a steady stream of reports and some video evidence of the day --- BBC Persian and Mardomak were particularly useful --- and EA was able to use its own sources to open up a glimpse of the opposition's revival.

And the starting point for that assessment is remarkably unchanged from our analysis before the marches. The opposition is now able --- despite the attempted deterrence of security forces, the cut-off of communications, and now the detention of its leading figures --- to get thousands, perhaps ten of thousands, onto Tehran's streets. And yesterday also confirmed that this is not the capital: the march in Shiraz, in particular, appeared to have grown in size and intensity, with evidence of arrests and confrontations.

The question will thus become, "What next?", in the sense not of appearing on the streets but of framing political objectives. That may be even more difficult to co-ordinate, given the regime's attempted decapitation of the Green Movement, political parties, activist organisations, and unwelcome media, than the effort to prove that resistance is still alive.