Turkey Analysis: A Big Opportunity? Ankara's Talks with Imprisoned Kurdish Leader Ocalan

PM Erdogan & PKK Leader OcalanSo Turkish authorities have been speaking with the imprisoned leader of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), Abdullah Ocalan, since last month. Indeed, the head of the National Intelligence Organisation (MIT), Hakan Fidan, visited Ocalan in his Imrali Island prison --- where he has been kept since 1999 --- for two days of one-to-one meetings. This was followed by the Erdogan Government’s high-profile if vague statements of a peaceful settlement on the Kurdish issue and by the dispatch of two experienced MPs from pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP), to Imrali.

This is not the first occurrence of negotiations with Ocalan and the PKK --- two years ago, the MIT was involved in a series of meetings in Oslo. There are key differences in the recent talks, however.

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A Deadly Car Bomb in Damascus

A petrol station in the Barzeh area of Damascus, destroyed by a car bomb on Thursday night

See also Bahrain Audio Feature: Why the Detention of Photojournalist Ahmed Humaidan Matters --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24
Thursday's Syria (and Beyond) Coverage: UN --- Death Toll Passes 60,000

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2107 GMT: Syria. The head of the insurgency's military command, Brigadier Selim Idris, has denied reports that his troops possess chemical weapons and intend to respond in kind if the Syrian regime uses them.

The political adviser of the Free Syrian Army, Bassam al-Dada, said on Wednesday that insurgents could put together components of chemical weapons and use them if necessary.

“In our faith, we can't use such a weapon,” even if the regime attacked with it, Idris said. "We will not try to acquire them, will definitely not produce them or facilitate their production."

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: On "Quiet" Sunday, 78 People Are Killed

2240 GMT: Syria. The LCC has posted an EXTREMELY GRAPHIC video, reportedly showing 13 bodies "massacred," shot in the head in Bahdalieh, a suburb south of Damascus (map).

We cannot verify the video, except to say that, with graphic closeups of the brains shot over the pavement, it looks real. The hands of the bodies appear to be bound, and all the bodies (men) were wearing civilian clothing. At one point a man holds a sign that reads today's date.

The only problem - a different video, which sounds like it was taken by teenagers, was posted two days ago, and shows only five bodies. Here is the description:

GRAPHIC - Five more Syrian Sunni Arab victims of Assad's reign of terror in Damascus: Al-Bahdalieh, Nov 17th, '12 (Graphic)

Five males are found on waste ground in Al-Bahdalieh, having been stopped by an Alawite gang.

There are commonalities between the two videos. The video shot on the 17th appears to show the men to the far left of the frame (note the shirt colors and the red bag near the bodies - at the 23 second mark in the liveleaks video and the 51 second mark of the Youtube video). The Youtube video explains that the 8 new bodies (on the right) were in addition to the ones on the left, which were old:

Published on Nov 19, 2012 - Eight bodies were executed on the ground by firing squad in the Bahdalieh added to a group of bodies that are found almost daily in the region...

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Insurgents Take a Military Airport in the North

See also Syria 1st-Hand: A Taxi Ride In the Damascus Suburbs
Israel-Palestine Live Coverage: Talk of Ceasefire Fades as Israel Pounds Gaza
Saturday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Insurgents Change the Situation on the Ground

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2059 GMT: Jordan. Security officials are holding and interrogating 130 citizens for 15 days on suspicion that they called for the overthrow of King Abdullah II at protests this week. They face charges of "threatening to undermine the regime, illegal gathering, and creating civil strife", which can carry sentences of up to 5 years.

Human rights lawyer Musa Abdallat said of the detained individuals, "These are prisoners of conscience who should be released".

1919 GMT: Bahrain The Ministry of Interior offers its thought for the day:

Freedom of religion in Bahrainis not an iron curtain behind which politically explosive activities can be used to incite people

— Ministry of Interior (@moi_bahrain) November 18, 2012

Some may disagree. The main opposition society AlWefaq recently released a report on the attack on Friday prayers led by Sheikh Isa Qassim which took place on 9 November. Authorities reportedly set up 26 separate checkpoints to keep worshippers away from Duraz. People who attempted to travel to the mosque by foot were fired on with tear gas.

The Government, however, is unlikely to heed the dissent. It said Sunday that “a number” of Shiite religious figures have been referred to the public prosecutor for delivering political sermons or leading anti-regime chants.

See also Preaching Religious Tolerance, Practicing Religious Discrimination.

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Turkey-Syria Analysis: What Will Ankara Do Now? What Should It Do?

Turkey's Erdogan with Syria's AssadWednesday's mortar that fell on Akcakale in southeastern Turkey was not the first fired by Syrian forces across the border, but it was the first to kill Turkish civilians, slaying three women and two children. So --- given that Syria's downing of a Turkish reconnaissance aircraft in July and subsequent manoeuvres near the border had brought Ankara's warning of a red line --- Ankara's retaliation with artillery fire against Syrian bases was not surprising.

The question was and still is: what comes next?

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Turkey Analysis: Syria and Barzani Unsettle Ankara's Official Policy on Kurdistan

Prime Minister ErdoganThe Erdogan government will try to rely on a "security-first" agenda to challenge both the opposition parties and the PKK, at the same time promoting its synthesis of nationalism and Islam.

However, Ankara now has to review its calculation that playing the game with more players and more cards would turn the situation to its advantage. Both Iraqi Kurdish leader Barzani's involvement and the changing Syrian situation pose a question: what will Erdogan do if an autonomous Kurdish region is declared not only in Syria but in southeastern Turkey?

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Turkey Live Coverage (7 June): Politics and Pressure over the Kurdistan Talks

1740 GMT: Following the Global Counter- Terrorism Forum, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said regarding Turkey's fight against PKK: 

With respect to our fight against terrorism, we work very closely together, and in fact, we are learning every week how we can be more closely knit together to cooperate and to support Turkey’s fight against the PKK. I will not discuss potential arms transfers that have not been formally notified to Congress, but I will say that the extensive assistance that we currently provide is going to intensify through closer cooperation and planning, and both the foreign minister and I are committed to making sure both of our governments are as focused and coordinated as we can be going against those that threaten Turkey and Turkish lives.

 I think I’ve said it on every trip to Turkey – the United States stands strongly with Turkey in your fight against the PKK whose long campaign of violence has claimed tens of thousands of lives. 

1535 GMT: Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu criticized the silence of countries who haven’t spoken out against the Assad regime so far and underlined, once again, the significance of an international consensus. He said:

From Turkey’s perspective, there is instability on the border between Turkey and Syria. The Assad regime does not create stability: On the contrary, Assad’s methods destroy the stability in the region. 

The international community should act unanimously to stop the oppression and atrocities.

Turkey will continue its inclusive activities to strengthen the opposition in Syria.

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Turkey Live Coverage (23 April): The Kurdish Issue, Iraq, and the Region

1700 GMT: BDP's co-chairman Selahattin Demirtas announced his party's programme that is to start in the U.S. today. According to the official plan, the BDP commission will see Kubat Talabani, KRG's representative in Washington before meeting with Turkey's ambassador Namik Tan. The committee is also expected to meet with Assistant Secretary of State Philip Gordon, some senators and congressmen, San Fransisco Mayor Ed Lee and American Bar Association's Center for Human Rights. 

1555 GMT: BDP's MP Emine Ayna blamed Premier Erdogan for the deaths. Ayna said: "Erdogan has his own signature behind the deaths either of guerillas or of soldiers."

1540 GMT: Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President Massoud Barzani claimed that he raised the agreement of F-16 jets sale to Baghdad during his recent visit to Washington. Barzani said:

The F-16 must not reach the hand of this man. We must either prevent him from having these weapons, or if he has them, he should not stay in his position.

1400 GMT: Ankara's ambassador Yunus Demirer was summoned by Iraqi officials following an exchange of complaints and accusations between Prime Minister Erdogan and his Iraqi counterpart Nuri al-Maliki. 

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Turkey PKK Special: Invasion of Kurdistan? Don't Count on It

On Sunday, Turkish PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke, and his target was the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP). In response to a series of fights between Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) and PKK militants, Erdogan said:

"We are maintaining our patience because of our respect for Ramadan. But, everyone should know that the beginning of peace will be more different after this month of peace and solidarity

I am saying it frankly. The cost of this will be heavy for them. Those who fail to distance themselves from the separatist terrorist organization in this country are also abetting this crime. They are also doomed to pay the price for that. "

Does this threat have any teeth? This is a time when Iran is increasing pressure on PKK’s PJAK branch and while speculations have arisen to such an extent that the Turkish state’s own news agency, Anadolu Agency, was announcing at first that PKK’s second man (Murat Karayilan) had been captured by Iranian security forces, a statement which couldn’t be confirmed by Turkish politicians. With the significance of this regional PKK-targeting game, is Turkey really willing to carry out an operation in northern Iraq? 

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Turkey After the Elections: A Deadlock in the Kurdish Opening?

Earlier this month, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) ended up with less than 330 MPs out of 550 in the Parliament, short of the "super-majority" which would enable the AKP to amend the Constitution without resistance.

Meanwhile, the imprisoned leader of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), Abdullah Ocalan, declared that passive resistance, rather than armed conflict, would continue if two conditions were met: a halt to Turkish military operations and engagement with his leadership, reaching out to the militants and urging them to accept a democratic solution. 

Both these headline developments are now accompanied by other manoeuvres.

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