Turkey-Syria Analysis: What Will Ankara Do Now? What Should It Do?

Turkey's Erdogan with Syria's AssadWednesday's mortar that fell on Akcakale in southeastern Turkey was not the first fired by Syrian forces across the border, but it was the first to kill Turkish civilians, slaying three women and two children. So --- given that Syria's downing of a Turkish reconnaissance aircraft in July and subsequent manoeuvres near the border had brought Ankara's warning of a red line --- Ankara's retaliation with artillery fire against Syrian bases was not surprising.

The question was and still is: what comes next?

The Erdogan Government has already ensured that it has a blank cheque from Parliament, winning the support of 320 of 550 MPS for any "military actions in foreign countries". At the same time, Deputy Prime Minister Besir Atalay said, "The motion was passed not to declare war but to protect our interests." 

Now the Government reaches Stage 2, recognising that it cannot move without an international consensus. There is no space for a big show of force before the US elections in November, and European allies were also putting out a line of caution. British Foreign Secretary William Hague summarised, “Turkey's military response to a Syrian mortar attack was understandable but an escalation of the situation should be avoided.” Any Turkish strike also has to anticipate a Russian reaction. So Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, against his impulse to lash out at Damascus, needs to project calm and co-operation with international partners.

That approach has a domestic dimension, as it could boost Erdogan's credibility as “leader” while strengthening his influence inside Turkey and in the region, especially over Kurdistan. As Turkey goes through the process of amending a Constitution, the Erdogan Government --- following a period of detentions of Kurdish activists and politicians and clashes with the insurgent PKK --- should be looking to reduce tension. 

This would open up the option of a "protected zone" inside Syria through the offers of a hand to Kurds. Last week, the imprisoned leader of the PKK, Abdullah Ocalan, reportedly sent the message to Syrian Kurds that they should be the "third independent power" inside Syria until President Assad is toppled. With that possibility, the PKK, while pursuing hit-and-hide operations in southeastern Turkey, is signalling that it is no longer is interested in a sharp increase in tensions with Ankara.

Apart from steps towards a solution of the Kurdish issule Ankara needs to re-establish relations with Tehran and Moscow, bolstering its importance as a diplomatic broker and giving it leverage when Russian and Iran finally reach a bottom line on the fate of President Assad.

On Thursday, as the world watched for a Turkish response to Syria, Iran’s Vice President Muhammed Reza Rahimi was in Ankara for a meeting with  Erdogan. Could this be the signal of Ankara's "real" strategy, preparing the ground for a protected zone instead of firing more artillery?