Iran Analysis: The Opposition Responds to The Regime's Hatred Rally

 Today the Iranian regime tries to counter the public re-appearance of the Green Movement with its call for "good" people to turn out after Friday Prayers to demonstrate against "sedition".

It is not a new tactic. The Tehran leadership used the same tactic just after the December 2009 Ashura rallies that marked the high point of the opposition's public challenge to the regime's authority. On that occasion, the hook-line was that the Greens had burned and disgraced the image of Imam Khomeini. A large crowd turned up, giving the regime and Iranian media to put the focus on the support for its legitimacy.

The success of that 30 December gathering has been overstated by those backing the regime's supposed victory over the opposition. There would be another six weeks of uncertainty --- to the point of planning within the establishment to put aside President Ahmadinejad --- before a sense of security was established. However, it is clear that the Supreme Leader and the President's office see this as a blueprint to be re-used when the announcement of the Green Movement's death is premature.

This time, however, there has been a twist. The opposition movement has countered quickly, putting out a call to march on Sunday, 1 Esfand. And it too has a specific public cause: mourning the two demonstrators, Sanee Zhaleh and Mohammad Mokhtari, who were killed during Monday's march.

Initially, the response was confused amidst the regime's attempts to quash resistance, from detentions to house arrests to shut-downs of communications. By last night, however, a coalition of groups had agreed that they would march on Sunday rather than today.

That, in itself, is a small victory over the regime's quest for "decapitation" by cutting off Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi. And it confirms a shift in the opposition's approach. Rather than play on the ground of the regime's celebrations, as it did up to the disappointment of 22 Bahman, the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, last February, it will now try to establish its own significant moments on other days.

And it is a significant contrast to what was attempted after Ashura 2009 and the regime's reply. On that occasion, Mir Hossein Mousavi put out a statement from on high, with the most detailed exposition of Green aims that has been attempted since the June 2009 election. That brought a lot of debate --- reform of the Islamic Republic or the establishment of a different system? --- but, in the end, it failed to maintain the public momentum of the challenge to regime legitimacy.

That comes --- as Tunisia, Egypt, and Bahrain have shown in recent weeks and, ironically, as commenters on a pro-regime website have been declaring --- through people expressing defiance on the streets.

The call for the marches of 1 Esfand may not bring that public success. Indeed, the regime's trump card --- even if it cannot repress the Green movement out of existence --- is that it can make coverage of the opposition marches so difficult that an approximate measurement of what has occurred is difficult. In particular, the reaction of the Iranian population, beyond those dedicated to either a pro-regime or anti-regime path, is hard to guage. And, as Mr Tehrani evaluated this week, the opposition faces difficult questions over its methods and aim beydon the short-term.

 However, for the first time since February 2010, the regime does not have the public arena all to itself. That could be a small but significant shift in the political contest.