The Latest from Iran (17 September): The President's Political Baggage

2035 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Foreign Policy Power Play (cont.). So the Iranian President has given his nationally-televised speech in advance of his trip to the United Nations.

Nothing unexpected, as Ahmadinejad gave the ritual thrashing of US foreign policy --- misguided towards Iran, Iraq, the Middle East, and Afghanistan --- and declared that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is "under Western pressure" as it reports on Iran's nuclear programme. His symbolic play was to associate himself with Persia's great rulers by referring to how he brought back the Cyrus Cylinder to Iran from the British Museum (albeit only on loan for four months).

An Iranian activist has the best blow-by-blow summary.

2030 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Didi Remez, writing for Israel's Yediot Ahronoth, reports on Italy's growing trade with Iran:

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Iran Analysis: Which Way Forward for US Policy?

Marc Lynch, one of the leading analysts of US foreign policy on the Middle East and Iran, posts this challenging piece in Foreign Policy.

I appreciate Lynch's attempt to find an "off-ramp" to get out of confrontation with Tehran, but I can't help feeling, after reading and re-reading, that he is locked into the dilemma that "we have to do something" to head off those pressing for military action against Iran. Unfortunately, because Lynch can't find a "something" that will work, he winds up back at the default position --- with a shrug of his shoulders --- of intensified conflict and a probable strike on Iran.

The alternative? Instead of "do something", a bit of patience might be in order, as well as a recognition that internal developments in Iran --- while likely to change the situation significantly --- take time. So, instead of "doing something" directed at Tehran, perhaps "doing something" directed at the US policymakers and chattering classes might be advisable: don't give in to an inevitability that talk of military action means military action; instead, head it off and knock it back.

What happens in Iran should be led by Iranians, not by Washington. And it certainly should not be directed by or be dependent on the nuclear-military setting: 

This morning, at a small meeting with various Washington-based analysts and European diplomats, I was asked to speculate on the future of Iran policy.  While it's of course impossible to predict, I don't expect to see military action by the U.S. or by Israel.  Nor do I expect to see any serious progress towards a political bargain, either a narrow one about the Iranian nuclear program nor an expansive one about Iran's place in the Middle East.  Nor do I expect Iran to test a nuclear weapon.

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Iran Video: Ahmadinejad with NBC News on "Muslims", "Zionists", & Obama (15 September)

President Ahmadinejad is off to the United Nations for his annual presentation to the General Assembly, so that means another round of interviews with US television networks.

It's a low-risk strategy for Ahmadinejad, as the American interviewers do not usually bring more than two-dimensional questions, and this encounter with NBC News' Andrea Mitchell was no different. Rather than pushing the President on Iran's internal matters, Mitchell settled for a snapshot of the case of the three US hikers --- Ahmadinejad had released Sarah Shourd on "compassionate grounds" but was defiant over the continued imprisonment of Shane Bauer and Josh Fattal --- and got into a tangential discussion on the proposed Islamic cultural centre in New York and a general overview of President Obama and US politics. Ahmadinejad countered with assertions of Muslim goodwill (and thus his own) --- "Muslims do not hate Americans" --- while saying that a "Zionist minority" was limiting the President's options on US-Iranian relations.

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The Latest from Iran (16 September): Suspending Damocles' Sword

2030 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. University student Mohammad Reza Valian, detained after the Ashura protests last December --- one of the charges against him was "throwing stones" --- has been released. 

2015 GMT: Stopping the Attorneys. Radio Farda follows up on the story, reported on EA earlier this week, that the husband and lawyer detained human rights lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh have been threatened with arrest if they spread information about her case.

Sotoudeh's husband, Reza Khandan, said he and attorney Nasim Ghanavi had been warned by the Ministry of Intelligence: "They told Ms. Ghanavi that a case has been filed against her and me for giving interviews about my wife's arrest."

Sotoudeh was detained on 4 September on accusations of "collusion against national security" and "spreading propaganda against the Islamic Republic". Days earlier, she had spoken about a raid on her office, claiming that Iranian authorities were trying to stop her representing clients like activist Shiva Nazar Ahari.

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Iran Analysis: Is Rafsanjani Ready for a Fight?

UPDATE 1725 GMT: Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi says "the file remains open" in the case of Mehdi Hashemi, Hashemi Rafsanjani's son. Iranian authorities have threatened to arrest Mehdi Hashemi, who currently lives in London, if he returns to Iran.

Raffers is back. Possibly.

Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani used the bi-annual meeting of the Assembly of Experts, which he heads, to put out a rather pointed challenge to the Government yesterday.

So President Ahmadinejad thinks he can wave away sanctions as a "used hanky"? Not so fast, said Rafsanjani: "Throughout the revolution, we never had so many sanctions (imposed on Iran) and I am calling on you and all officials to take the sanctions seriously and not as jokes....Over the past 30 years we had a war and military threats, but never have we seen such arrogance to plan a calculated assault against us."

Sure, that's a headline slap at "the West", but it's also the signal of a lack of confidence in both the President's politics and his skills at managing the economy.

So, is Rafsanjani ready to rumble?

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The Latest from Iran (15 September): Ahmadinejad and His Challenges

1710 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Foreign Policy Move --- A Reminder (see 1310 and 1325 GMT). The Associated Press, for inexplicable reasons, is reporting that the President has "demoted" six aides from "senior envoys" to "advisors" for international affairs.

No, that's not a demotion, that's just another name for Ahmadinejad's staff as they take on foreign policy posts. (And AP might have noted that the President, far from backing down in the face of the Supreme Leader's criticism, has added two envoys-now-advisors to the four he originally named.)

And while we're talking who is trying to claim Iran's foreign policy, let's note a statement from the office of one of Ahmadinejad's Vice Presidents: it was the President who took the final decision on the release of US hiker Sarah Shourd, acting "for humanitarian reasons".

1700 GMT: Oil Squeeze (Subsidy Cut Edition). Tehran has postponed increasing the price of gasoline, despite the subsidy cut plan which was to be implemented next week.

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Iran: An Open Letter on Haystack and Human Rights (Shahryar)

This week the testing of Haystack, a highly-publicised system seeking to provide access to the Internet --- free from surveillance and filtering --- to Iranians, was suspended amidst security concerns and criticism of both the technology and the promotion of the initiative.

Josh Shahryar reflects and responds in this open letter:

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Iran Special: Sarah Shourd and Ahmadinejad's Gamble for Power (Gary Sick)

Iran has had bitter internal disputes ever since the revolution. What is different this time is that it has gone public. The release of Sarah Shourd, as welcome as it is, is only a symptom of a much larger process: the attempt by Ahmadinejad to make the presidency into an indispensable and ultimately independent policy-making center. In that contest, he has allied himself with the Revolutionary Guards, arguably the real power behind the sanctified throne in Iran, rather than the Supreme Leader.

This is not good news for the United States in its on-again off-again efforts to engage with Iran. Ahmadinejad has given some evidence of wanting to forge an opening to the United States, as have presidents before him. But Ahmadinejad, like his predecessors, is hostage to a hostile internal environment that fears a deal with America could interfere with the cozy military-industrial-political consortium involving not only the Supreme Leader but also his protectors and economic beneficiaries in the Revolutionary Guards.

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Iran Urgent: US Hiker Sarah Shourd Released ---- Her Statement

UPDATE 1930 GMT: A CNN journalist claims, "Senior US source says Oman paid Iran bail for US hiker Sarah Shourd. Shourd flew from Iran to Oman, who has been working issue for some time."

UPDATE 1800 GMT: Before she flew out of Tehran's Mehrabad Airport, Sarah Shourd told Press TV, "I want to really offer my thanks to everyone in the world, all of the governments, all of the people, that have been involved, and especially, particularly want to address President Ahmadinejad and all of the Iranian officials, the religious leaders, and thank them for this humanitarian gesture. I'm grateful and I'm very humbled by this moment."

UPDATE 1630 GMT: The families of the three US hikers who were detained in July 2009 --- Sarah Shourd, Shane Fattal, and Josh Bauer --- have issued a statement:

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Iran Analysis: Dead End for Reform --- and Which Way Forward? (Rasoulpour)

Saman Rasoulpour writes in Rooz Online:

How have the events of the past year affected the future of reforms and movements for reform in Iran? This is a question worth asking these days. The protests of the past year, while challenging every aspect of the regime, had one unintended consequence: It exposed significant challenges to the future of reform in Iran. These challenges can be grouped in several categories.

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