The Latest from Iran (20 September): A Quieter Monday --- So Far

1915 GMT: Clerical Challenge. Ayatollah Bayat Zanjani, in his latest criticism of the Government, has said that Iran's main problem today is the lack of tolerance for opposition votes and opinions. He added that "unfortunately" religions are abused to confront civilisations and people instead of supporting dialogue and rapprochement.

1900 GMT: Fact-Checking. Earlier we cast some doubt on the President's ability to tell the truth. Looks like his 1st Vice President might also need some help....

Mohammad Reza Rahimi, on the eve of scheduled subsidy cuts, has said that inflation is single-digit (official rate 10,4%) and rice is imported only to cover deficiencies (Iran's heavy imports of rice and sugar have led to widespread bankruptcy of domestic producers).

Meanwhile Iran's banking experts have called published inflation data "an insult to people's intelligence". One said, "You have to add 15% due to subsidy cuts to the official rate of 10%."

1850 GMT: Parliament v. President. Reformist Emad Afrough strikes back at Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's "I Rule" statement with a call to fellow legislators to get tough.

Afrough said it is a reality that the Majlis is not at the head of affairs, even though it should be and would be had it not retreated from its rights in many cases. He calls on the Parliament to demand "why Ahmadinejad talks like this and why he falsifies Imam Khomeini's words" about the need for an Iranian legislature to prevent government becoming a dictatorship.

It's not just reformists speaking out. Key conservative Hossein Sobhani-Nia has also said that Khomeini's injunction is "not temporary" and announced that a joint Majlis-Government-Guardian Council commission on the legal powers of the three bodies will discuss Ahmadinejad's latest statement. 

On the clerical front, Isfahan Friday Prayers leader Mohammad Taghi Rahbar has warned that no one should "freely interpret" Khomeini's words, for what he said about the government and Majlis was "still valid". Isfahan's head of seminary Ayatollah Mazaheri declared that "insults against the Majlis are not acceptable".

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Iran Analysis: Mahmoud's New York Sideshow

On Sunday afternoon, a reporter noted simply and incisively, "Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad must be feeling like he's in Heaven now. He loves New York, and he loves media attention."

For those of us who do not equate New York City with God's kingdom, that statement was a bit jarring. But as I watched Mahmoud Ahmadinejad skip and swagger his view through media interviews --- and, more importantly, as I saw the "Ahmadinejad" in the accounts of US journalists --- I saw the point.

The Iranian President is being portrayed as a villain, of course; to do otherwise would ruin the dramatic narrative of conflict. However, like the villain in any long-running pantomime, he is never actually vanquished. The media's blows are those of soft bats rather than hard questions, letting the audience boo and hiss but leaving Ahmadinejad to take his bows at the end of the performance. 

And to return the next night.

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Iran Video & Transcript: Ahmadinejad on ABC News "US Hikers, Sanctions, & Human Rights" (19 September)

And so Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's US media tour begins, only hours after he arrived in New York. The first interview was with Christiane Amanpour of ABC News's This Week:

Watch the video....

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Iran Breaking: The False Rumour of 7 "Captured" US Troops

UPDATE 1305 GMT: Now to the Important Question....Which Iranian official started the story of the captured troops and why? 

Starting point has to be the Revolutionary Guard, given that its outlet Javan (again, not Fars, which may have repeated the story but soon deleted it) started the rumour. But with Javan soon pulling its attempted scoop and apologising, I doubt anyone will be admitting responsibility.

Indeed, Press TV brings a smile with its coverage: "Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) rejects rumors of seven US troops being detained on the border of southeastern province of Sistan-Baluchestan."

Somehow, Press TV forgets to mention who started those rumours....

UPDATE 1225 GMT: Mystery Solved. Javan, which started the story that seven US troops had been captured, has just posted that "the news is not true" and has apologised to its readers.

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The Latest from Iran (19 September): While the President's Away....

1920 GMT: Striking Back. Mehr News posts responses from eight members of Parliament, ranging from conservative to reformist, on the President's recent remarks about his office and the Majlis. The summary --- "A number of lawmakers have criticized President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s recent claim that the executive branch of government is more important than the legislature" --- is far milder than the comments summarised. 

An example? Key MP Ali Motahari's statement, "Among the three branches of government, the parliament is still on top of affairs and has the authority to impeach the president and remove him from office."

1850 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Student activist Majid Tavakoli, detained since December, has reportedly met his family for the first time in two months.

Tavakoli's sentence of 8 1/2 years in prison was confirmed last week by an appeals court. Last month, he and 16 other political prisoners went on hunger strike; one of their demands was the restoration of visits with relatives.

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Iran Analysis: Karroubi's Challenge --- Who Acts and What Happens Next?

The President, as he presses on with his appointments, his rhetoric, and his journeys --- "Look at Cyrus the Great." "Now Look at Me." --- has thrown the Supreme Leader's intervention for unity back at his feet. 

So after Rafsanjani put out his coded jab at Ahmadinejad at the Assembly of Experts this week, after Karroubi tossed in his brick of a letter, and after the President persists in his grandstanding, does the Supreme Leader finally set aside a "unity" which is not happening? Does he point the finger at the Larijanis --- or others in the establishment --- and say....

"Will not someone rid me of this troublesome....?"

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Iran Breaking: Karroubi Intervenes with Letter to Rafsanjani "Take Charge"

UPDATE 1910 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz has published the full text of the Karroubi letter to Rafsanjani.

BBC Persian is reporting that opposition figure Mehdi Karroubi has made a pointed intervention with a letter to former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, in Rafsanjani's capacity as the head of the Assembly of Experts.

Karroubi's letter, sent to Rafsanjani just before this week's bi-annual Assembly meeting, called on the Assembly to exercise its powers to "monitor the functions and institutions under the auspices of Iran's Supreme Leader". Karroubi cited problems such as "a lack of independence of the judiciary and courts", the interference of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps and Basij militia in political issues, and the IRGC's expanded involvement in Iran's economy.

And, in an even more provocative challenge, Karroubi pointed to the Assembly's powers, under the Iranian Constitution, to remove the Supreme Leader if he becomes incapable of carrying out his supervisory role.

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Iran Analysis: Is There A Rift Between Khamenei and Ahmadinejad? (Mahdi)

Dr Ali Akbar Mahdi writes a guest post for EA WorldView to answer the question of a leading Washington journalist, "Is there a rift between the Supreme Leader and the President?":

All along, Ayatollah Khamenei's support for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been tactical and not based on what the clerics often refer to as "aqd-e okhovvat" (a tradition of  "brotherhood contract", established by Prophet Mohammad in Medina).  

Khamenei will support Ahmadinejad as long as the advantages of such support outweigh its disadvantages.  However, Khamenei is starting to see how the obedient president is enjoying power and is slowly outgrowing his own skin. That is why different signals are sent out from Khamenei's lower associates to the President, such as letters from the Supreme Leader's offices and critical editorials in newspapers like Kayhan and Jomhouri Islami.

Yet, assured of a ride to the end of presidency, Ahmadinejad has begun acting more unpredictably and controversially than expected. Khamenei knows that he invested too much in him in the last presidential election –-- an investment which much of it has turned to be a loss. For his own sake as the leader above the political fray --- a priority which former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and other clerics have been highlighting to him --- Khamenei needs to distance himself from Ahmadinejad.

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The Latest from Iran (18 September): Watching Ahmadinejad

1903 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Peyke Iran reports that Journalist and human rights activist Abolfazl Abedini has been severely beaten in Karoun Prison.

Abedini has been arrested twice since the 2009 elections and was sentenced this spring to 11 years in prison.

1900 GMT: The US Detainee. Sarah Shourd, released earlier this week from Evin Prison on a guarantee of $500,000 bail, has left Oman for the US. 

1750 GMT: The Conservative Reaction Begins. Alef has responded to the Ahmadinejad statement: both the President and his Ministers are accountable to the Parliament, and that Parliament has the authority to censure a Minister and impeach if necessary.

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Iran Feature: The Intimidation of the Regime (Baji)

"Yasaman Baji", an Iranian journalist in Tehran, writes for the Institute for War and Peace Reporting:

The Iranian security forces stepped into action to prevent opposition protesters coming out onto the streets and hijacking the annual anti-Israel demonstration last week.

The last Friday of Ramadan is designated Quds (“Jerusalem”) Day in Iran, and is used by the regime as a ritual show of anti-Israeli and anti-American sentiment.

Last year, however, the opposition Green Movement took advantage of the officially-sanctioned presence of crowds on the street to make their own appearance, to the consternation of the government. They challenged official policy on the Palestinian cause – normally a taboo subject – by shouting, "No to Gaza, no to Lebanon, may my life be sacrificed for Iran."

This year, the intelligence agencies were ready, and took action to forestall any public appearance by the opposition.

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