Syria Audio Analysis: Is Assad's Military Crumbling? --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

With Syria's Grand Mufti calling for universal conscription of young men amid insurgent gains, I spoke with Monocle 24's The Briefing on Wednesday about the state of the Syrian military and the current situation in the cities and countryside.

The discussion starts around the 8-minute mark in this pop-out window.

The take-away point? While President Assad's military may be under pressure and his position may be eroding, this is far from a final stage in the Syrian conflict.

Venezuela Analysis: Hugo Chavez's Dubious Legacy for Iran and the Middle East (Postel)

In June 2009, as millions of Iranians took to the streets to ask Where Is My Vote? Chávez was among the first world leaders to congratulate his ally Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Tehran on his reelection.

“In Egypt, the situation is complicated,” Chávez pronounced during the Tahrir Square protests that brought down Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak. He remained conspicuously silent on the Battle of Cairo, one of the great democratic uprisings of recent times, remarking merely that “national sovereignty” should be respected.

But silent he was not as the Arab revolts spread to Libya and Syria; he spoke out emphatically in support of Muammar Qaddafi and Bashar Assad.

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Just Another Day --- 114 People Die on Monday

2005 GMT: Syria. Another interesting pickup by Bill Neely, who is in Damascus and has been to Douma today. He notes that while he has not personally witnessed this, he has seen and heard the shells fall and believes this is real:

Video shows #Syria army bombarding #Damascus suburb youtube.com/watch?v=iFFupm…#Douma

— Bill Neely (@billneelyitv) July 3, 2012

1948 GMT: Syria. It's been another bloody day in Deir Ez Zor, as battles for control of key areas continue to rage.

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Syria Flashback: The Schoolboys Who Sparked an Uprising (Hamano)

Daraa, 25 March 2011On March 20 last year, an intelligence officer in Damascus rounded up a group of teenagers from Daraa and told them: "You disrespected the president, but he has decided to pardon you." The boys were surprised. They had been held by the authorities for more than a month and Bashir Abazid, who was just 15 at the time, almost refused to believe what he was hearing, because every time the boys had been told they were being released, they had been transferred to yet another intelligence branch.

Remarkably, the teenagers were sent back to Daraa later that same day. "We were terrified for the entire way home," Bashir recalls. As they approached the city and headed towards the Baath party headquarters, they witnessed a scene they only knew from television: they saw crowds of people lining the streets.

"I thought they had prepared the square for our execution," he says. "Our eyes filled with tears. When we got to the square, the officers ordered us to draw the curtains on the bus. That made us even more scared. The news spread to the people that we were inside. They stormed the bus. We opened the shaded windows and I saw my brothers and uncles. My mother was crying. I jumped out of the window."

Bashir's brother embraced him and

cried: "You see all these people? They are here for you."

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Syria 1st-Hand: Debating the Future in Homs (Shadid)

Clock Square in Homs, 15 May 2011Syria is awash in such stories of solidarity these days, bridging traditional divides that have colored the country’s politics for generations. But far from disappearing, the old divisions of geography, class and, in particular, religious sect are deepening.

Syrians offer different explanations. Protesters blame the cynical manipulation of a government bent on divide and rule, and the government points to Islamist zealots seeking to impose a tyranny of the majority.

Which prevails — new loyalties born of revolution, or old rivalries entrenched in smaller identities — may decide the fate of Syria’s four-month revolt.

Colliding along the front lines of the uprising, and especially here in Homs, these forces suggest a grim reality of the revolt against President Bashar al-Assad: the longer his government remains in power, the less chance Syria has to avoid civil strife, sectarian cleansing and the kind of communal violence that killed at least two dozen people in Homs last week. Unlike in Egypt, and despite the protesters’ hope and optimism, time is not necessarily on their side, a point that some of them admit.

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The Latest from Iran (18 September): Watching Ahmadinejad

1903 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Peyke Iran reports that Journalist and human rights activist Abolfazl Abedini has been severely beaten in Karoun Prison.

Abedini has been arrested twice since the 2009 elections and was sentenced this spring to 11 years in prison.

1900 GMT: The US Detainee. Sarah Shourd, released earlier this week from Evin Prison on a guarantee of $500,000 bail, has left Oman for the US. 

1750 GMT: The Conservative Reaction Begins. Alef has responded to the Ahmadinejad statement: both the President and his Ministers are accountable to the Parliament, and that Parliament has the authority to censure a Minister and impeach if necessary.

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