Turkey Analysis: The Elections Bring An Embrace of Neo-Liberal "Stability"

A mixed result for Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Sunday's vote: it won the elections with 49.8%, a 3.2% increase from the 2007 ballots. On the other hand, it claimed only 326 seats in the Parliament, 14 less than four years ago.

The Republican People's Party (CHP) received 25.9% of the vote and Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) 13%.  Independents, with 36 candidates have been supported by the pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) and other leftist groups, had 5.9% of the ballots.

So, what does this picture show us?

First of all, AKP has reached its apex, with one of every two people voting in favour of the ruling party's neo-liberalism. The success had two foundations. The first is that the upper-middle class has unsurprisingly protected its class interests despite of increasing public criticism of AKP fromleftists, student collectives, workers' unions, syndicates, and pro-Kurdish demonstrators. Secondly, the AKP have implanted the keyword "stability" in a "stable economy" and a "stable service", presented to the lower-middle class and those on meagre incomes. 

In fact, the three big parties --- AKP, CHP and MHP --- that won more than 90% of the Parliament share the common ground of that hegemony. AKP's discourse is constructed upon the basis of conservatism; CHP's upon a Kemalist model of secularism, and MHP's upon nationalis, but all pursue a neo-liberal economic agenda. A few facts:

- Three quarters of the three big parties's leaders and administrative staff are "bourgeoisie", with 34% as employers and 43% as working for his/her own business. 

- The proportion of big and small employers and people working for their own businesses is 92.8% in AKP, 73.9% in CHP, and 79.9% MHP. Indeed, the number of businessman/women at MHP is more than those at AKP. 

- The rate of unskilled workers in the parties' leaderships: 0% at AKP, 2.9% at CHP, and 3.3% at MHP. 

At the end of the day, the people of Turkey voted for a hegemonic "stability" --- the continuation of a relatively settled neo-liberal period --- rather than a coalition government. 

Big patrons are satisfied with the results. The Confederation of Businessmen and Industrialists of Turkey (TUSKON) said: "Our nation, with its common sense, preferred stability. As of now, we expect representatives of the parliament, collectively, to work fast on the preparation of EU reforms and the new constitution." TheIndependent Industrialists and Businessmen's Association welcomed the results and asserted: "Once more, our beloved nation used its vote with its own will accordingly in favour of whoever it wants to rule itself, of projects it sees hope, and of whoever it thinks that will enrich and develop the country." The Turkish Industrialists' and Businessmen's Association (TUSIAD) also emphasised the importance of "stability": "Our expectation in the next tenure is a new Turkey that will have completed a new constitution with large contribution and negotiations, neared to EU [European Union] membership, increased its employment capacity by guaranteeing economic stability and decreased the level of unemployment."

But what awaits on the Kurdish issue? The imprisoned leader outlawed PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party), Abdullah Ocalan, set 15 June as a deadline for the government to set out concrete steps towards the solution of the Kurdish problem. The pro-Kurdish BDP declared that it would implement administrative autonomy in municipalities where Kurds have greater power, especially in the southeastern part of Turkey. 

However, developments are likely to take a different path now. Since AKP needs 330+ seats to amend the constitution, the very first door to knock upon will be that the independents. Why approach pro-Kurdish MPs  rather than the other major parties, CHP and MHP? If Erdogan can win the support of the independents in constitution-making, CHP and MHP will be more likely to follow. The beginning of dialogue will be accompanied by passive resistance by the PKK, but AKP will show the whole country, particularly Kurdish people that have sympathy for PKK, that warnings, deadlines and threats are of no use against the state.

The pro-Kurdish parties will not come to terms without conditions. On Monday, BDP's ex-chairman --- now an independent in the Parliament --- called on the government to talk to PKK directly. He added that peoples of Turkey have confirmed the principlie democratic autonomy and demanded the release of Ocalan and other imprisoned politicians, the recognition of the use of Kurdish in courts, and the halt of military operations against PKK.

That in turn will bring negotiations. As the AKP seeks the amendment on the Constitution, it will face the use of Kurdish in schools, local administrative autonomy, further EU reforms on human rights, the release of some PKK members who have not participated in operations, and dialogue with Ocalan and his house arrest.

Erdogan declared an embrace of unity in his first speech after Sunday's results. But whom will he embrace first?