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Entries in Sean Foley (3)

Monday
Feb082010

Today on EA (8 February 2010)

Iran: With 22 Bahman just three days away we are watching the situation in Iran even more closely than usual. The Iranian regime's rhetoric on its nuclear programme has continued throughout the day, but the Western media, which had chased the story to the exclusion of all other topics, has now re-discovered Iran's internal development.

The White House,on behalf of the US Government and the European Union, has issued a statement condemning the human rights violations in Iran since the June elections. All the latest news in our live weblog, which also contains links to other stories.

Former President Khatami set out his thoughts for Thursday's anniversary of the 1979 Revolution.

There have been new protests at Sharif University today, and we have the video.

We have a list of the 57 journalists currently detained in Iran's prisons.

Arabian/Persian Gulfs: Sean Foley has written an EA special analysis of the Gulf States and Iran in the wake of recent news about the deployment of  US soldiers and advanced weapons to Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Israel/Syria: Do we have  peace, or commitments to work towards peace from Israel and Syria? Follow the statements from the main players over the weekend.

Palestine: Mahmoud Abbas, Leader of the Palestinian Authority, has expressed his disappointment with the Obama administration and says he will  "not back down" from his demands.

Monday
Feb082010

Arabian-Persian Gulfs: An Introduction to Iran and the Gulf States

Sean Foley writes for Enduring America:

The news in recent weeks about the deployment of US soldiers and advanced weapons to Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) reminds us of the central position of the Arab oil-producing monarchies in the Persian Gulf to international efforts to contain the Iranian nuclear program. Few states in the Middle East have closer links to the two chief actors in the dispute, Iran and the United States, or few would be more negatively affected if Washington attacked Tehran.

Yemen: A Beginner’s Guide to (The Perils Of) Intervention


The six Arab oil-producing monarchies in the Persian Gulf region --- Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE --- are known as the Gulf Cooperation Council (or GCC) and have the largest oil and gas deposits in the world. GCC nationals and governments own significant portions of US and European corporations, while Europeans and Americans have invested heavily in the Council's states. The US Fifth Fleet is based in Bahrain, and the US military maintains a large presence in Qatar and Jebel Ali (UAE), the only port deep enough to berth an aircraft carrier in the Gulf. Finally, GCC states have bought billions of dollars worth of US and European advanced weapons and technology, including French nuclear reactors.


GCC ties with America and Europe in part reflect the history of tensions between the government of Shi'a and Persian-speaking Iran and the much smaller Arab and Sunni states of the GCC. Relations have been especially hampered by the 1979 Iranian revolution, the support of many GCC states for Baghdad during the Iran-Iraq war, and the outbreak of sectarian violence in Iraq. Iran has also threatened to seize GCC territory and to radicalize Shia populations living in the GCC. GCC governments worry that Iran could use nuclear weapons to dominate the Middle East, seal off the chief avenue for transporting oil and gas outside the Gulf (the Straits of Hormuz), or destroy desalinization plants in the GCC. These plants have accounted for as much as 50 percent of the water and electricity in some GCC states and are vulnerable to attack because they are large, utilize complicated machinery, and are built near coasts.

Nonetheless, senior GCC and Iranian officials frequently exchange official visits. Qatar has provided diplomatic support for Iran and its nuclear program at the United Nations and in the GCC. Oman cooperates with Iran in managing the Straits of Hormuz, while Qatar and Iran have jointly developed the North Gas Field, the largest field in the world. Dubai has a sizeable Iranian population and has run a highly profitable re-export trade with southern Iranian ports for decades. Iran has also become a strong market for GCC goods, especially those from the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Ultimately, the GCC states will be a key barometer of stability in the Middle East. If the GCC states publicly and consistently side with Washington against Iran, then war may be inevitable. But if the GCC states continue to quietly cooperate with Washington while publicly talking to Tehran, a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear dispute may be attainable.
Tuesday
Feb022010

Yemen: A Beginner's Guide to (The Perils Of) Intervention

Yemen, the state on the Arabian Peninsula which has recently exploded into the headlines as a country of concern, is little-known to most Americans. It does have a track record, however, of embroiling outside powers who decided to intervene. Sean Foley, a professor at Middle Tennessee State University  and author of the forthcoming The Arab Gulf States Beyond Oil and Islam, writes for EA:

In October 1927 Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founder of the Turkish Republic, delivered an historic speech in which he explained why Turks had to abandon the Ottoman Empire and embrace his new state. Ataturk in particular focused on Yemen and the fact that the Empire’s leaders had sent millions of Turks to die in South Arabia in the name of a universal Muslim state: “Do you know,” he asked, “how many sons of Anatolia have perished in the scorching sands of Yemen?”  In the future, Ataturk promised, Turks would not die in wars in Yemen—a state that had become synonymous with the plight of the Ottoman soldier in Turkish folklore.

Saturday Special: Helping Yemen?


Forty years later, Yemen made a similar entrance into Egyptian national consciousness. When Israel defeated Egypt in the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, much of Egypt’s army was fighting a protracted and bloody guerilla war in Yemen.

The experience of Turkey and Egypt should give U.S. officials pause, as they contemplate intervening in Yemen and along its 1,800-kilometer border with Saudi Arabia.


That border is one of the most disputed regions in the Middle East.  Its deserts and vast open spaces assist smugglers transporting various consumer goods, weapons, illicit drugs, and illegal immigrants. Al-Qaeda has reportedly brought weapons and explosives into Saudi Arabia from Yemen and trained operatives in the country, such as Umar Farouk Abdul Mutallab, the Nigerian man who sought to destroy a U.S. airliner on Christmas Day 2009.

Although Yemen and Saudi Arabia both wish to eradicate al-Qaeda, their efforts to control the border are hampered by years of mutual mistrust. The two countries fought wars over the border region as recently as 1934, and Yemenis have claimed that Red Sea Saudi islands and the southern Saudi regions of ‘Asir, Najran, Tihamah, and Jizan should be part of Yemen. Saudi Arabia has tried to build a fence along the border, which was only officially demarcated in the year 2000.

Further complicating matters is the nature of the border communities. Not only are there Sunni Muslims, but there are also Ismailis and Zaydi Shi‘a Muslims. Zaydis are more than 40 percent of Yemen’s population and have a tangible presence in Saudi Arabia. (Jews even lived in Najran until the 1950s.)  Riyadh’s relations with border peoples are often problematic, while the Huthis, a Zaydi rebel group, have attacked Yemeni and Saudi military forces.  The Huthis have also received moral and potentially military support from Iran.  In 2009, Saudi Arabia sought to destroy the Huthis by launching the Kingdom’s biggest military operation since 1991.  As of February 2010, the Huthis continue to fight on both sides of the border, and the Saudi offensive has become a contentious issue between Riyadh and Tehran.

In the long run, the best U.S. approach in South Arabia is to continue to support Yemen and Saudi Arabia, since both have the incentive and the means to attack American enemies there. Any other approach risks starting Americans down the road to a military quagmire. Indeed, no American need die in the sands of Yemen for Washington’s policies to succeed in the Middle East.