Iran, Political Prisoners, & New Media: Discovering The Case of Zahra Bahrami

This is a story of an Iranian-Dutch woman who may be facing death in Tehran. It is not a nice story. It is not a story with a happy ending (thank goodness that it has no "ending", given the possibilities, so far).

But at least it is now a public story.

Last year Zahra Bahrami travelled from the Netherlands to visit one of her children in Iran. On 27 December, the day of the Ashura demonstrations, she was accused of taking part in the protests and arrested.

Then Zahra Bahrami effectively disappeared amongst the thousands who have gone through the Iranian prisons since last June's election. She had changed her name slightly to Sahra Baahrami on her Netherlands passport, so no one --- if they knew of her plight --- apparently made the connection between the woman was now in prison and the Dutch citizen.

In April, Reporters and Human Rights Activists in Iran (RAHANA) wrote:

45-year old Zahra Bahrami was brutally arrested and taken to Ward 209 of Evin on December 27, 2009 during the Ashura protests. She has been held in solitary confinement in Ward 209 since her arrest more than 3 months ago. Bahrami has been interrogated numerous times during her detention. The sessions last several hours and are comprised of physical and psychological torture, as well as incessant vulgar insults.

And there was more: some Iran-watchers spoke of the charge of "mohareb" (war against God). If true, that meant Bahrami faced the death penalty if she was convicted.

There was no indication of Bahrami's dual citizenship --- RAHANA said, "Due to her unknown status, Bahrami has been subjected to the harshest physical and mental torture techniques" --- however, when we noted, "Activists are playing close attention to her case," we had learned from EA readers that Bahrami was an Iranian-Dutch national. One of them pointed us to a website which provided further information and urged people to write letters to the Dutch Foreign Minister, Maxine Verhagen, to highlight Bahrami's plight.

This past week, those campaigns culminated in a joint expression of concern by Amnesty International and the Dutch Government. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs at The Hague said, amidst the growing chatter on the Internet, that it had "attempted to obtain an explanation from Iranian authorities, but none [had] been provided". However, with the family confirming to the Ministry on 23 June that Bahrami had been detained and with clarification a month later over the change of name on her passport, Dutch authorities were now convinced of the seriousness of the case.

So now Zahra Bahrami's story is no longer confined to "hot spots" in the new media. EA readers in The Netherlands continued to spread information, and they now report that the political prisoner's situation has moved from dozens of websites to national news and Radio Netherlands Worldwide.

Iran Feature: Why "Normal" Is Not Bad (Pedestrian)

Pedestrian writes:

These days, when I talk to my friends in Iran, hardly anyone, even the most politically active, talks about politics anymore.

I’m certainly not claiming that my friends are a representative of the entire Iranian population – they certainly are not. But it was at first somehow disappointing to hear them disregard the latest political news the way when, just months ago, they were the ones filling me in on things I might have missed. Now, even when I bring up things like “Did you read Mousavi’s latest letter?” or “Did you hear about so-and-so’s outrageous prison sentence?”, they are quick to change the subject.

When I ask them about their schools, they tell me that most students are back to trying to catch up on their school work, admissions, master’s entrance exam, etc., etc. There is very little talk of politics.

And yet you hear daily of new arrests, new prison sentences, new letters from prison. Many of those on hunger strike are students. These direct threats and hurdles are also a daily reality for a part of Iranian society that has continued the fight. As Mohammad Nourizad said in his interview: “These are realities we are living amidst.”

It is not that my friends are indifferent towards these realities. But it was somehow disappointing for me that they do not pursue them with the same vigor they did just a few months ago. My own unease about this made me uneasy, so I had to ponder it a little more.

These feelings are exasperated when I meet seemingly reasonable Iranians who insist that life shouldn’t go back to normal in Tehran, that things are still in a state of chaos and people are organizing against the establishment 24/7 ”until the regime is toppled”, “Khamenei stands trial”, and “Freedom is achieved”. “We can’t take anymore of this,” they insist, “The youth of Iran will get us freedom soon.”

Maybe they mean well, but as someone who was one of those “youth” not long ago, I feel these words are said self-servingly. I am more certain of this when I tell them about my observation --- that most of my friends have indeed gone back to their usual lives --- and it angers them.

I realize that following the news on Iran for many on the outside, is a break from a life of daily calm, and a step into chaos. For my friends, this chaos is everyday reality. The latest policy change, change of university chancellor, ban, sanction, etc., etc. is what they live with. For many outside Iran, finding out about these things, no matter how painful or difficult, has little connection to the physical, tangible reality of their everyday lives (although it has extreme repercussions for our mental, spiritual and psychological lives, but that’s another story). I want to be up-to-date with news in Iran, but my immediate life – work, school, bills, etc – would be no different whether I did or didn’t.

My friends don’t have that luxury.

In essence, maybe things have gone back to the way they always were: our people don’t forget. But rather, they’ve become experts at carrying on this heavy baggage while simultaneously getting on with their lives. It is a painful art form that maybe only an Iranian would truly understand.

And maybe as someone on the outside, a part of me wants to see them still leave their lives on the back burner, as they did last June, and only show concern for certain political aspirations? In a very selfish way, am I trying to feel better thinking that this would guarantee a “quicker” result? As if my friends are trained soldiers who should be fighting on my behalf, and if ever they stop fighting, or at least not enough, it ticks me off?

This is a question I have always come back to when following the student movement, both as an insider, and as someone watching from the outside.

On one level, their activism seems necessary for the greater democratic movement in Iran. On another, I think it is in the best interests of the students themselves to focus on their school work, and not have to pay such a hefty price. Having worked closely with the Muslim Students Association at my school, I know that the students themselves and their families faced this dilemma every single day even when the environment was less lethal: do we become more politically active and risk everything? Or mind our own business and just get on with our lives? Do we organize Mohsen Kadivar’s visit to our school (as we did) or is it too much of a risk? Do we design a poster for Ghods Day or no?

I think that’s a nuance that’s often missing in analysis that comes from the outside, however, as we just like the students to be active, to applaud them for pushing both the democratic aspirations of the country and their own generation. From afar, they are more like a band of warriors than real kids with fears and aspirations whose dreams are often jeopardized or shattered by political activity, and who may be better off personally had they not been active politically. These contradictions and complexities are so real when you deal with them on a day-to-day basis.

It seems to me that for now, life has gone back to “normal” --- the painful chaotic normal we are used to --- in Tehran. And that is a good thing. People need to live their lives; they need to take trips and go to work and eat at jolly family dinners. For those who know Iran, they know that the events of last June did not come out of thin air. They were a continuum of what had come before. And this story is anything but finished. It is simply somewhere else – somewhere other than it was a year ago.

Life goes on in Tehran…but it seems to me that some ill-wishers would rather that it never could.

China Economy Weekly: Foreign Reserves; Investment and Trade Surges; Co-operation with India and with General Motors

China's Foreign Exchange Reserves: China has diversified its foreign reserves by cutting US Treasury bond holdings and increasing Japanese debt holdings.

According to data released by the US Treasury Department, China held nearly $843.7 billion of US debt at the end of June, $94.6 billion less than the peak of $938.3 billion it held in September 2009. Despite the fall, China is still the largest US debt holder, followed by Japan and the United Kingdom.

China This Week: Geological Disasters; US-Chinese Relations; Carbon Emissions

As the nation trims its US exposure, it has been expanding its Japanese debt buys. China has purchased $20 billion worth of Japanese treasury debt for six consecutive months, almost five times the total increase of its holdings during the past five years.

China has alsodoubled South Korean debt holdings and bought more mortgage bonds of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two largest US home funding companies.

South Korean treasury bonds held by Chinese investors rose 111 percent to 3.99 trillion won ($3.4 billion) in the first half of the year, while mortgage bond holdings, including those of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, by nearly $5.6 billion in June.

China Moves to quell concerns over Foreign Innovation: Addressing concerns about local bias in government procurement, Minister of Commerce Chen Deming said innovation by foreign-invested companies enjoys equal support if at least 50 percent of a product's added industrial value comes from operations in China.

Chen made the remarks during a meeting in Beijing with Doris Leuthard, president of the Swiss Confederation and minister of Swiss Economic Affairs.

In November, China's Ministry of Science and Technology, National Development and Reform Commission, and Ministry of Finance jointly announced that China-made innovation would be given priority in government procurement. The policy stirred unease among foreign investors concerned they could be locked out of China's vast government purchases.

China-Related Mergers and Acquisitions Rebound:  Most China-related merger and acquisition deals have rebounded strongly in the first half of the year, and set the scene for robust activity for the remainder of 2010 and into 2011, accounting firm PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PwC) reported.

Chinese outbound merger and acquisition deals for the first six months of 2010 reached record levels, up by more than 50% over the same period last year.

Natural resources are the main industry target for Chinese investors overseas. Though Australia is identified as the main target destination, Africa is growing in prominence for Chinese resource investors.

"Although natural resources continue to be the priority industry target for Chinese investors overseas, we are seeing other industries starting to get increased attention, including technology, manufacturing and services industries," said Andrew Li, Transaction Services Partner at PwC. "Meanwhile, investors are broadening their target regions to include the United States, Japan and the European Union."

India aims to Double Trade with China: India is striving to double bilateral trade with China, its largest trading partner, within four years, according to Subas Pani, chairman of the India Trade Promotion Organization.

Bilateral trade between India and China has risen dramatically over the last decade. From a modest $3 billion at the turn of the century, annual trade reached $42 billion in 2008-09. The level reached $32 billion in the first half of 2010 and is expected to exceed $60 billion for the year.

China's Trade Surplus to Shrink: The Ministry of Commerce on Tuesday said China's trade surplus is expected to shrink gradually in the next few months, as the government adopts more stimulus measures to boost imports.

China's trade surplus for July surged unexpectedly to an 18-month high of $28.7 billion as exports grew 38.1% year on year to a record high of $145.5 billion. Growth in imports fell to 22.7% from 34.1% in June.

The slower growth in imports is the latest sign that China's curbs on the real estate sector are affecting demand, and many economists said the trade surplus will remain high as import growth continues to decelerate.

Foreign Direct Investment Surge: The Ministry of Commerce reported that the foreign direct investment (FDI) rose by 29.2% year-on-year to $6.92 billion in July, the 12th consecutive monthly gain and the fourth month this year that the increase was above 20 percent.

The high growth was buoyed up by larger volume of foreign funds into the service sector and China's western and northeastern regions, and the trends will continue, analysts said.

"No systemic risk" for local borrowings: The Chinese government said risks related to borrowing by local government-backed investment units are "controllable" and would not cause systemic damage to the economy, as it worked out detailed measures to clean up financing of these vehicles.

Some economists are concerned that the problem of local government debt could destabilize the financial system of the world's fastest-growing major economy if not managed properly. They especially cite the central government's tightening of the housing market, which could affect local fiscal revenue and make debt repayment more difficult.

Local governments are not allowed to borrow directly from banks or issue bonds to fund deficits and support infrastructure construction. In consequence, many have set up investment vehicles by using land and fiscal revenue as collateral.

Alliance Promotes Electric cars: An alliance of sixteen of the largest State-owned companies wants to accelerate development of electric vehicles in China, a move which underscores the country's ambition to be a world leader in new energy vehicles.

The alliance, formed on Wednesday, is gearing up to invest 100 billion yuan ($14.7 billion) on electric vehicles by 2012. Guided by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC), it was formed by almost all the major players in related sectors, including the country's top three oil majors, top two power grid operators, and two major automakers --- China FAW Group Corp and Dongfeng Auto Corp.

SAIC, GM Form New Business Model: China's biggest automaker SAIC Motor Corp Ltd and General Motors Co announced plans to jointly develop fuel-efficient engines and transmissions on Wednesday.

Under the agreement both sides will together develop a new small-displacement gasoline engine family and an advanced transmission, which will be used by GM and SAIC in China and future vehicles worldwide.

"The cooperation kicks off a new business model for China's automobile industry", said Hu Maoyuan, chairman of SAIC.

Chinese "Investor Immigrants" Inject Money Into Canada: Billions of yuan may be transferred to Canadian banks every year from China after the media reported that Chinese are now the top seekers of permanent residency in the country.

In 2009 alone, Canada admitted more than 25,000 permanent residents from the Chinese mainland. Around 2,000 applicants moved there after being wooed by Canada's immigration policies for overseas investors, which require a minimum net personal worth of C$800,000 ($771,395) and investment of C$400,000.

Both before and after arrival in Canada, applicants can transfer at least C$500,000 to Canadian banks for living expenses, according to sources familiar with the immigration industry.

Total yuan deposits in Canada may reach 6.7 billion yuan this year if another 2,000 Chinese investor immigrants enter.

E-Commerce Surges: China's e-commerce industry is expected to see rapid growth in the next few years, with the average annual increase surpassing 35%.

Qian Xiaoqian, deputy director of the State Council Information Office, said online shopping is become more and more popular in the nation. "E-commerce sales volumes surged to 3.6 trillion yuan ($530 billion) last year," said Qian. He said the Internet industry is also changing from an entertainment-oriented approach to a more balanced structure offering diversified services.

The Latest from Iran (23 August): Political Cease-fire?

1830 GMT: Shh, Don't Mention the Sanctions. In an interview with former President Abulhassan Banisadr, Deutsche Welle refers to two directives from Iran's Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance. One banning newspapers from printing pictures and news of opposition figures has already been mentioned (see 0919 GMT).

The other is new to us: Iranian media have apparently been told to make no mention of the effects of sanctions.

NEW Iran Document: Interview with Detained Filmmaker Mohammad Nourizad
NEW Iran Special: Have Ahmadinejad and Ali Larijani Kissed and Made Up?
Iran: Today’s Shiny Object for Media? Why, It’s an Ambassador-of-Death Drone Bomber!
The Latest from Iran (22 August): Ahmadinejad Aide Mortazavi Suspended?

1800 GMT: The President's Men. Fars News is now carrying the story of the suspension of three officials over the Kahrizak Prison abuses, but does not name any of them, including Presidential aide Saeed Mortazavi.

1745 GMT: MediaWatch (cont.). Thomas Erdbrink, writing in The Washington Post, is the first "Western" reporter to name Presidential aide Saeed Mortazavi as one of the three officials suspended for alleged connections with post-election Kahrizak Prison abuses. Erdbrink quotes human rights lawyer Saleh Nikbakht, "Mortazavi is among them, and now that he no longer has judicial immunity, he could face trial."

And The Financial Times is clearly on a roll with its coverage of the in-fighting. Having noted the Supreme Leader's intervention on Wednesday (see 1735 GMT), the newspaper also features Najmeh Bozorgmehr's article "Shia Schism Deepens Ahmadi-Nejad's Woes": "The infighting between Iran’s fundamentalists has deepened the gulf between supporters and opponents of President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad."

1735 GMT: MediaWatch on The President's Men. Credit to Reuters for picking up on Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's appointment of his chief of staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, as one of his four "special representatives" for foreign policy --- Rahim-Mashai's responsibility will be the Near East --- and for putting that in the context of political battles within the establishment.

Not so sure, however, that Reuters' snap conclusion is on the mark: "[This suggests] for now that for now [Ahmadinejad] may have the upper hand over the critics." (Someone might want to consult Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani.)

The Financial Times, belatedly but interestingly, notes the Supreme Leader's intervention last Wednesday and frames it as "Ayatollah Warns Bickering Politicians". The reporter, Monavar Khalaj, picks out this extract from Ayatollah Khamenei's statements, “I gave a serious warning to the officials not to make their differences public....Unity and solidarity among the country’s officials is a religious duty and the intentional rejection [of unity] is, especially in the upper echelon, against religious teachings.”

1720 GMT: Baby Basij. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, drawing from Aftab News, reports that female commander of the Basij militia, Zohreh Abbasi, has said that her unit has introduced a special program that allows baby girls to be registered as members of the force and receive training.

Abbasi said that, in the past six years, 23 baby girls had been trained as Basij members through "Koranic, cultural, educational, and military" classes.

"Basij mothers register their baby girls 40 days after they were born at the Hossein Haj Mousaee unit by presenting documents and IDs," Abbasi said. She declared that two babies have recently been born and  work is under way to prepare a dossiers for the new arrivals to enrol them in the special program.

1715 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Detainees at Rajai Shahr Prison written to Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, asking him to support human rights and labour activism.

1450 GMT: Energy Squeeze. Nabucco Gas Pipeline International GmbH, the company behind the amibitious Asia to Europe "gas bridge", will supply Europe through links to Turkey’s borders with Georgia and Iraq, rejecting a connection to the Turkish-Iranian border. Nabucco said the shareholders' decision was “due to the current political situation".

1335 GMT: MediaWatch (President's Man Edition). Almost 24 hours after the suspension of Ahmadinejad aide and former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi from his post because of alleged links to the Kahrizak Prison abuses, non-Iranian media --- like their counterparts in Tehran --- are not providing a name. The BBC, following the lead of the Associated Press, say only that "Iran has suspended three judicial officers".

1315 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Persian2English reports that Amnesty International and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands have expressed concern over the possibility of a death sentence for Zahra Bahrami, an Iranian-Dutch citizen arrested in Iran after the Ashura protests of 27 December.

1245 GMT: Tough Talk Today. Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi, the Revolutionary Guard's Navy Commander, says Iran's missile-launching vessels are the best in the world for speed and power. “American warships currently have a maximum speed of 31 knots while Iranian vessels can travel twice as fast on average,” Fadavi said at a ceremony to open production lines for domestically-built Zolfaghar and Seraj craft.

1100 GMT: The Nuclear Front. Yesterday we noted, from a paragraph in a New York Times article on the Bushehr nuclear plant, the significant announcement that "Russia would provide Iran with iodine and molybdenum, nuclear isotopes used in medicine" and asked, "Will Iran withdraw its demand that it be allowed to enrich uranium to 20%, at least while discussions proceed on a long-term deal over the nuclear programme? And is Washington up-to-speed and supportive of the Russian move?"

An EA source offers an answer, noting this statement from the head of Iran's nuclear enrichment programme, Ali Akbar Salehi:

We will go as far as our needs are met. So we have no intention to proceed forever for enriching [uranium] to 20%, although it is our right according to the NPT [Non-Proliferation Treaty] and the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] statute to enrich uranium to any percentage that is needed for peaceful uses in nuclear energy. But this does not mean that we shall do so. We only embarked on 20% because of the conditions that were imposed on us. I reiterate that we will go as far as our needs are met.

Our source comments, "Seems to me that Iran is gearing up to offer this as a bargaining chip."

0919 GMT: Blackout in the Newspapers. Daneshjoo News publishes a document which it claims is a Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance order barring the names and pictures of Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami from newspapers.

0918 GMT: Silence in the Theatre. Voice of America offers an overview of new restrictions by the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance on Iran's theatre.

0915 GMT: We have published a separate feature: journalist and filmmaker Mohammad Nourizad, just before returning to prison last week, posted his comments in an interview for his website.

0739 GMT: The Hunger Strike. Jila Bani Yaghoub, the wife of journalist Bahman Ahmadi Amoui, one of 17 detainees who recently went on hunger strike in Evin Prison, has offered an update on her blog.

Bani Yaghoub says the hunger strikers, who ended their fast last week, are "weakened" but in excellent spirits. She claims that, when they were finally returned to the general ward --- Amoui was one of the last three prisoners to be let out of solitary confinement --- they knew already about the international "echo" of their protest.

0735 GMT: Cleric Stands Tough. Following yet another attempt by a crowd to intimidate him by gathering outside the Shiraz mosque where he presides, Grand Ayatollah Dastgheib has warned "those who meet clandestinely to attack Qoba Mosque again". He said that he is interpreting the Qu'ran in mosque, and all that his followers want is justice and implementation the Constitution.

0725 GMT: The Supreme Leader and the Students. More on Ayatollah Khamenei's three-hour meeting with student represenatives on Sunday....

The Supreme Leader declared, "I am united with all those who follow principles, but others are outside" the Iranian system. He added, "We must not eliminate people with weak religious belief on pretext of purifying society."

Khamenei admitted --- interestingly, in light of yesterday's news about the suspension of three officials --- that procedure in the Kahrizak abuse case had been slow.

0650 GMT: An Ahmadinejad-Ali Larijani Deal? Really?

Already EA correspondents are moving beyond the public face of a reconciliation between the President and the Speaker of Parliament --- considered in our special analysis this morning --- and the notion of a resolution between the Majlis and the Government is far from clear-cut.

First, the Ahmadinejad meeting with Parliament that preceded the press conference with Larijani....

The President, attending with Minister of Agriculture Sadegh Khalilian (who is under some pressure from the Majlis) and Minister of Economy Shamsoddin Hosseini, welcomed the monthly discussions. Then the questions began on topics which have been long-standing and growing sources of dispute: privatisation, proper implementation of laws, cultural problems (hijab), and the possible impeachment of Khalilian.

That in itself was a bit of a climb-down for Ahmadinejad, who had balked at given an account of his meetings, but it cut off an initiative by some MPs for formal questioning of the President. This, as well as the Supreme Leader's intervention on Wednesday, lay behind the good-news statements that followed the meeting: Ali Larijani said the Majlis has made the first step for unity of powers, while Ahmadinejad declared, "If you make good laws, the Government will implement them."

Whether that reconcililation holds is another issue. In the meeting, Ahmadinejad faced challenges, such as Mohammad Ebrahim Nekounam insisting on the Government's "duty" to implement Majlis legislation and Gholam-Ali Hadad Adel insisting that the President's enforcement of the "hijab and chastity project" is absolutely necessary. (As always, make what you will of the fact that this description is appearing in Khabar Online, linked to Ali Larijani.)

And there are signals of persistence, if not defiance, from each side. The President has given his Chief of Staff --- Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai --- a prime target for the criticisms of conservative MPs --- yet another post, appointing him as special representative for the Near East. (There have also been appointments for Asia, the Caspian Sea area, and Afghanistan.)

From the Parliamentary side, Mohammad Karami-Rad said that a meeting with Minister of Agriculture Khalilian, postponed because of Wednesday's discussions with the Supreme Leader, will take place and the Majlis will proceed with moves for impeachment.

0640 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Persian2English publishes a letter from Sepideh Pooraghaiee, a friend and colleague of Shiva Nazar Ahari, about the deatined human rights activist and journalist:

Shiva Nazar Ahari has acted very distinguishably throughout the years. She never allowed intimidations and threats to turn into an impenetrable dam against her sacred efforts. Along with her bravery and clarity, she also was calm, patient and hopeful. She never expected to be praised. She never compromised with the resolution of a problem, however small, for a human being.

Nazar Ahari has been imprisoned since July 2009 and reportedly faces a charge of "mohareb" (war against God), which carried the death penalty.

0630 GMT: A Kurdish Political Perspective. Rooz Online carries an interview with the head of the Komeleh Party, Abdollah Mohtadi. The opening exchange:

Rooz: The Komeleh Party and the Green Movement! Is this not strange?

Abdollah Mohtadi: No, I do not believe it to be strange. I view the green movement to be a rightful and democratic movement, and we support any such movement. Even though this movement has not cut its nuptial cord from people who I think are official reformers and is still connected to them, I do not view the green movement to be the simple extension and continuation of what has been known as the reformist path in Iran. On the contrary, I believe that impasse of that model of reforms and ineffectiveness of its methods in its confrontation of dictatorship and the inability of reforms to create change at the top, has caused the green movement to take shape from the bottom through the public to attain its demands.

0615 GMT: We begin today with a special analysis: has the Supreme Leader mediated a political compromise between President Ahmadinejad and Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani? And is the Ahmadinejad-Larijani profession of co-operation more than a temporary, public measure?

Meanwhile....

Political Prisoner Watch

This week we have been noting the case of Abed Tavancheh, the student activist sentenced to one year in prison. To put further pressure on him, Iranian authorities have threatened to seize his family's home.

Now, according to Tavancheh's Facebook page --- as relayed to EA by a reader --- a deal has been proposed. The activist has been told that he should be at home on Wednesday, so agents accompanied by the relative who posted the house as bail can raid it and detain him. This way the relative has made a sign of co-operation and the house will not be confiscated.

Academic Corner

Students at Zanjan University staged a sit-in protest on Sunday to protest the firing of Professor Yousef Sobouti.

Palestine-Israel Analysis: Ramallah's "One Month Trial" and Netanyahu's "Security Card"

After half the members of the Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization failed to attend the discussion over direct talks with Israel, the Palestinian Ma'an News Agency reported that Hamas cancelled Saturday's reconciliation meeting with Fatah.

According to the London-based Arab language daily Al-Quds Al-Arabi, the Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas has re-labeled the talks as a two-stage process: a one-month trial period to see if Israel's Netanyahu Government will extend the freeze on West Bank settlements and then direct talks focusing on core issues.

Israel-Palestine: Forget the Hype, Talks Are Going Nowhere (Walt)

For that second stage of the talks, Abbas suggested that the Quartet --- in which Russia, European Union, and United Nations sit with the US --- can press Washington to get Israel to reveal its hand, behind closed doors, on the borders of a future Palestinian state. In a letter, Abbas urged the Quartet members to abide by resolutions of the UN pertaining to the Israeli-Arab conflict, the principles of the 1991 Madrid Peace Conference, the 2002 road map and the 2002-2007 Arab Peace Initiative.

Azzam al-Ahmed, a senior Fatah official who also serves as an adviser to Abbas, expressed dismay over Washington’s failure to invite representatives of all the Quartet members to the launch of direct talks in Washington early next month.

On the Israeli front, Prime Minister Netanyahu is preparing to use his best card, "security issues", as soon as the talks commence. Over the weekend, Netanyahu said he plans to focus on security arrangements before addressing final borders. (That means "drawing final borders across security arrangements". If Israeli forces are deployed in the Jordan Valley and most of the 500.000 Israeli settlers are kept as a buffer force for the Israeli state from missiles, then the lines have more or less been drawn.)

Netanyahu increased the pressure by depicting a "real partner on the Palestinian side, sincere and serious in negotiations, negotiations which will require both sides to take necessary measures, not only the Israeli side but also the Palestinian side”. Then it would be possible to “shortly reach a historic peace agreement between the two peoples.”

In response to Ramallah's "one-month trial" for the extension of a settlement freeze, Netanyahu will use his "security" card in order to get the maximum concessions at the beginning of negotiations. That is a wise strategy: if the concessions are not made, then West Jerusalem can blame Ramallah for not living up to its agreement to negotiate. However, that in turn also points to the difficulty of getting Israel to move beyond the initial phase of talks.

Who might be responsible for that position? What about a country whose administration once supported Palestinians pre-conditions --- including the settlement freeze and ending the occupation in East Jerusalem --- yet, with urgent phone calls to Ramallah, has insisted on no pre-conditions and definitely no reference to Israel's weapons programmes, including its nuclear capability? Any guess who that might be?