UPDATE 23 August: Another day, another super-shiny, super-scary object. From Bloomberg:
Iran announced it has begun producing two types of missile-equipped speedboat, a day after the country unveiled a long-range drone that can carry bombs.
“Enemies should be careful not to play with fire,” Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi said on state television today at the opening ceremony for the vessels’ production lines. “If they attack Iran our response will not be limited to one region and will be unpredictable.”
The Seraj-1 is a rapid-assault vessel that can operate in stormy weather, while the Zolfaqar can travel at 82 miles per hour and is equipped with the Nasr missile to strike enemy ships, Vahidi said, according to the official Islamic Republic News Agency. Both speedboats will “significantly boost the Iranian navy’s defense capability,” he said.
Why, it's an unmanned drone bomber, courtesy of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the Iranian military on Defense Industry Day. Ahmadinejad's pitch played on pre-emptive strikes (since the US did it in Iraq in 2003, why can't Tehran?):
If there is an ignorant person or an egoist or a tyrant who just wanted to make an aggression then our Defense Ministry should reach a point where it could cut off the hand of the aggressor before it decided to make an aggression.
We should reach a point when Iran would serve as a Defense umbrella for all freedom loving nations in the face of world aggressors. We don't want to attack anywhere, Iran will never decide to attack anywhere, but our revolution cannot sit idle in the face of tyranny, we can't remain indifferent.
The Karrar UAV [unmanned aerial vehicle] is capable of carrying a military payload of rockets to carry out bombing missions against ground targets. It is also capable of flying long distances at a very high speed.
Iran's defense industries have demonstrated spectacular progress in the recent year, launching numerous domestically-built armaments, including aerial and sea-borne military vehicles such as submarines, combat frigates, and various types of missiles.
Iran inaugurated the production line of two domistically-built UAVs with bombing and reconnaissance capabilities.
The two hi-tech drones named 'Ra'd' (Thunder) and 'Nazir' (Harbinger) are capable of performing long-range reconnaissance, patrolling, assault and bombing missions with high precision.
Ra'd, a UAV especially designed for assault and bombing missions, has the capability to destroy specific targets with high precision.
And the Associated Press has a ready-made, over-the-top headline, courtesy of Ahmadinejad. Can you spot which three words below it chooses (clue: it's not "peace and friendship"):
The jet, as well as being an ambassador of death for the enemies of humanity, has a main message of peace and friendship.
If you think the announcement that the Israelis and Palestinians are going to resume "direct talks" is a significant breakthrough, you haven't been paying attention for the past two decades (at least). I wish I could be more optimistic about this latest development, but I see little evidence that a meaningful deal is in the offing.
1. There is no sign that the Palestinians are willing to accept less than a viable, territorially contiguousstate in the West Bank (and eventually, Gaza), including a capital in East Jerusalem and some sort of political formula (i.e., fig-leaf) on the refugee issue. By the way, this outcome supposedly what the Clinton and Bush adminstrations favored, and what Obama supposedly supports as well.
2. There is no sign that Israel's government is willing to accept anything more than a symbolic Palestinian "state" consisting of a set of disconnected Bantustans, with Israel in full control of the borders, air space, water supplies, electromagnetic spectrum. etc. Prime Minister Netanyahu has made it clear that this is what he means by a "two-state solution," and he has repeatedly declared that Israel intends to keep all of Jerusalem and maybe a long-term military presence in the Jordan River valley. There are now roughly 500,000 Israeli Jews living outside the 1967 borders, and it is hard to imagine any Israeli government evacuating a significant fraction of them. Even if Netanyahu wanted to be more forthcoming, his coalition wouldn't let him make any meaningful concessions. And while the talks drag on, the illegal settlements will continue to expand.
3. There is no sign that the U.S. government is willing to put meaningful pressure on Israel. We're clearly willing to twist Mahmoud Abbas' arm to the breaking point (which is why he's agreed to talks, even as Israel continues to nibble away at the territory of the future Palestinian state), but Obama and his Middle East team have long since abandoned any pretense of bringing even modest pressure to bear on Netanyahu. Absent that, why should anyone expect Bibi to change his position?
So don't fall for the hype that this announcement constitutes some sort of meaningful advance in the "peace process"....
UPDATE 1120 GMT: The latest signals, brought to us by EA contacts inside and outside Iran....
The Islamic Republic of Iran News Network is loudly featuring the "co-operation" proclaimed at yesterday's Larijani-Ahmadinejad press conference. At the same time, Iranian media are highlighting the appointment of Ahmadinejad Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai as special representative for the Middle East, while largely ignoring the other three special representatives who were named.
There has no mention of the suspension of Saeed Mortazavi as a Presidential aide, apart from the opposition site Rah-e-Sabz. Media in Iran continue to say only that three officials have been removed from their posts because of alleged complicity in the Kahrizak Prison abuses.
UPDATE 0930 GMT: We have rounded up the developments around the Ahmadinejad-Larijani press conference, assessing whether they point to co-operation or further tension, in our LiveBlog at 0650 GMT.
The two pieces of news that livened up --- yes, even more than the President's "Ambassador of Death For Peace" speech introducing a model of Iran's drone bomber, Karrar --- our Sunday....
1. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, after a formal meeting between the Government and the Parliament, hold a joint press conference in which they stress the need for co-operation between the Presidency, the Majlis, and the judiciary to address Iran's internal problems.
2. Saeed Mortazavi, who was Tehran Prosecutor General during the 2009 election and until the autumn, who found refuge under pressure as an aide to Ahmadinejad, has been suspended from his post --- along with two judges --- for his alleged role in the post-election abuses at Kahrizak Prison.
And a reminder....
3. On Wednesday, after months of tension between the heads of his three Government branches, the Supreme Leader met with Ali Larijani, Ahmadinejad, and head of judiciary Sadegh Larijani.
Ayatollah Khamenei hasn't sent me a morning e-mail to confirm this, but I'm still going to play Make-the-Connections....
The Supreme Leader tells his three politicians that enough is enough. The factional quarrels within the establishment are preventing a common front at a time when Iran faces serious economic problems, in part because of sanctions, and the decision whether to proceed with talks --- including with Washington --- on the nuclear programme.
But both Larijanis, apart from any personal rivalry and difficulties with the President, have a long set of grievances against Ahmadinejad's men going back to last summer. There have been accusations of economic mismanagement, corruption, mis-handling of the post-election crisis, and complicity in the abuse and killing of detainees.
It's not going to be possible to address all those issues, even with the Supreme Leader as the mediator, at a single session. So a sign is needed. A sign that can come through a sacrifice of one of the President's men, someone who symbolises the problems caused by the Government's own mis-steps.
Three nominees for Fall Guy spring to mind. There is Ahmadinejad's Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, who has brought some serious dislike upon his head with his statements, his protection from his brother-in-law (M. Ahmadinejad), and his accumulation of posts with both nominal and very real influence and control of money. He has already been at the centre of a dispute between the President and the Supreme Leader, which ended last summer from his step-down from 1st Vice President only to become Ahmadinejad's top aide weeks later.
There's current 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, who is suspected by many conservatives of involvement with suspect financial schemes, including the Fatemi Street insurance fraud. Rahimi has also played Foreign Policy Expert with some curious statements in recent weeks and succeeded only in unsettling Iran's diplomacy, as well as looking a bit of a fool.
And there's Mortazavi, who is blamed by key conservatives for the Kahrizak debacle, which in turn is a symbol for the sprawling system of detention and alleged abuse that has continued long past the summer of 2009. One of those who died in Kahrizak was the son of the campaign manager, Abdulhossein Ruholamini, of the 2009 election bid of Mohsen Rezaei, former head of the Revolutionary Guard and current Secretary of the Expediency Council.
Rahim-Mashai, because of personal ties, his accumulation of influence, and his symbolic position as Presidential right-hand-man, is still too important for Ahmadinejad to let go of him. The departure of Rahimi, despite the dislike he has provoked and the seriousness of the corruption charges, might not have enough political significance to make an impact.
So Mortazavi was tapped on the shoulder, the sacrifice that brings a respite in the squabble between Ali Larijani and Ahmadinejad, Parliament and Government.
But is that a long-term lull? And is more of a public show at a time when Iran's international opponents as well as the supposedly-dead opposition movement are drawing conclusions from the rifts within the establishment?
Let's go with "temporary" respite. And let's watch to see if Mortazavi is only the first Fall Guy.
When American and Pakistani agents captured Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Taliban’s operational commander, in the chaotic port city of Karachi last January, both countries hailed the arrest as a breakthrough in their often difficult partnership in fighting terrorism.
But the arrest of Mr. Baradar, the second-ranking Taliban leader after Mullah Muhammad Omar, came with a beguiling twist: both American and Pakistani officials claimed that Mr. Baradar’s capture had been a lucky break. It was only days later, the officials said, that they finally figured out who they had.
Now, seven months later, Pakistani officials are telling a very different story. They say they set out to capture Mr. Baradar, and used the C.I.A. to help them do it, because they wanted to shut down secret peace talks that Mr. Baradar had been conducting with the Afghan government that excluded Pakistan, the Taliban’s longtime backer.
In the weeks after Mr. Baradar’s capture, Pakistani security officials detained as many as 23 Taliban leaders, many of whom had been enjoying the protection of the Pakistani government for years. The talks came to an end.
The events surrounding Mr. Baradar’s arrest have been the subject of debate inside military and intelligence circles for months. Some details are still murky — and others vigorously denied by some American intelligence officials in Washington. But the account offered in Islamabad highlights Pakistan’s policy in Afghanistan: retaining decisive influence over the Taliban, thwarting archenemy India, and putting Pakistan in a position to shape Afghanistan’s postwar political order.
“We picked up Baradar and the others because they were trying to make a deal without us,” said a Pakistani security official, who, like numerous people interviewed about the operation, spoke anonymously because of the delicacy of relations between Pakistan, Afghanistan and the United States. “We protect the Taliban. They are dependent on us. We are not going to allow them to make a deal with Karzai and the Indians.”
Some American officials still insist that Pakistan-American cooperation is improving, and deny a central Pakistani role in Mr. Baradar’s arrest. They say the Pakistanis may now be trying to rewrite history to make themselves appear more influential.
“These are self-serving fairy tales,” an American official said. “The people involved in the operation on the ground didn’t know exactly who would be there when they themselves arrived. But it certainly became clear, to Pakistanis and Americans alike, who we’d gotten.”
Other American officials suspect the C.I.A. may have been unwittingly used by the Pakistanis for the larger aims of slowing the pace of any peace talks.
At a minimum, the arrest of Mr. Baradar offers a glimpse of the multilayered challenges the United States faces as it tries to prevail in Afghanistan. It is battling a resilient insurgency, supporting a weak central government and trying to manage Pakistan’s leaders, who simultaneously support the Taliban and accept billions in American aid.
A senior NATO officer in Kabul said that in arresting Mr. Baradar and the other Taliban leaders, the Pakistanis may have been trying to buy time to see if President Obama’s strategy begins to prevail. If it does, the Pakistanis may eventually decide to let the Taliban make a deal. But if the Americans fail — and if they begin to pull out — then the Pakistanis may decide to retain the Taliban as their allies.
“We have been played before,” a senior NATO official said. “That the Pakistanis picked up Baradar to control the tempo of the negotiations is absolutely plausible.”
As for Mr. Baradar, he is now living comfortably in a safe house of Pakistan’s intelligence agency, the Pakistani official said. “He’s relaxing,” the official said.
Mr. Nourizad, are you being sent to prison once more for your most recent letter to the leader?
I believe so. That is, I see no other reason. I believe that I’m being sent to prison for humbly writing this letter. In this letter, I put myself before the judgement of God, and I put him [the Leader], who I like very much, before the judgement of God. And I revealed to him the questions we must both answer. So I do believe I am being called to prison for this letter.
In the call they made to your home, what did they state as the reason, and when did they say you should be there?
I will go tonight. It seems as though these friends have missed me and I must go soon.
You have written six sympathetic, criticizing letters to the leader. What kind of a reaction did these letters invoke from your friends in the principalist factions? Are they too facing the same doubts towards the leader?
Yes, many have faced the same doubts. I am but a known repersentative of this group. I have become known for these questions I ask, but there are many others in cultural, economic, military and basij circles, even those in clerical or religious circles, and when they come to see me, they tell me that I am putting their views forward as well. But they say that they do not have the space to put forth their views, or are worried of the repercussions. I am not the only one who thinks this way. This is an all-encompassing phenomenon.
This is a crack in the wall which has appeared in many places, and will continue to expand. In the thirty or so years since the revolution, there is a big population that has heard of the ideals we never achieved and has seen that we have actually sinked further and further. We have lost opportunities because of mismanagement and lack of wisdom. We have lost our national riches and resources, and I am certainly not the only one who is worried about this. Rather, many of my ilk think the same way.
I have written six letters to Mr. Khamenei, and have stated that the sixth letter is the last one. I hope that this letter is read, and with my attempts to depict judgement day, some of these calls, most notably the call to free prisoners, are heard.
You mentioned that this is your last letter. Are you disappointed in the prospects of this letter being read?
In the end of the letter, I mention that I hope the leader will read it and free political prisoners and act towards reconciling with each and every one of our people. This last letter is written to depict my hopes. I end it on a very hopeful note.
How did interrogators treat you, a child of the revolution and of the system, and who has fought in the war? How did they speak to you? Can you talk about the physical nature of the violence inflicted on you in prison?
I am not important. If only one person is harmed, that’s like all Iranians, and even all of humanity, has been hurt. I have been subject to physical abuse when I should not have been. But I know many good, loving, honest men who have been subject to torture, have been tormented and abused. Their families have been threatened. All of this comes at a time when we expect patience and wisdom more than anything else. We expect lawful, rightful action.
When you are met with beatings and abuse, when they forcefully put your head into a toilet bowl, and when they swear using the most vile language, this is completely against any ethical or religious teaching we have ever known. I am distraught with what is happening to our children in prison, and I loudly declare that in solitary confinement our youth and our men are under torture, and are subject to beatings and abuse and their wives and children are being threatened using the most vicious language. This is the very sad reality that we seem to be living in.
How do you see the future? Where is this Green Movement headed? From your last letter, it seems you believe in fate and the end of tyrants?
I see a very bright future. The growth and maturity our people have experienced in the past year is one that takes a whole decade to achieve. And the vicious face we came to see on the other side can take ten to fifteen years to reveal itself. This can only mean brightness and hope.
We are seeing harm, but no victory comes without a price. We do not want to undo everything we have done. Every revolution in every country means a step back for that country. We want change. We say we want ugliness to be replaced with beauty, insecurity to give its place to safety, disrespect to give way to respect, and lawlessness to be replaced with the rule of law. It is only a truth that we utter. And to want this change is a holy tradition. We have learned this from the prophets. When your clothes are stained and dirty and you attempt to wash them, no one criticizes you because you have acted rightly.
So we too are attempting to clean this dirt. We want to rid our country of this dirt and pollution and replace it with purity. I see a very bright future. I didn’t write this letter in hopelessness, I didn’t leave it to fate. Those questions I present are not only issues we will face on judgement day, but whether we want or not, complexities we will have to face in this world. The questions I put forth are not questions for the afterlife, but this life. Either way, we all have questions before us which we should be ready to answer.
You met with the family of Mr Tajzadeh [former Deputy Minister of Interior, now detained] the day before. Would you have signed that letter [of seven reformists who have taken legal action against Commander Moshfegh for statements about military intervention against the opposition before and after the election] if you were invited to do so? And like those seven reformists, do you believe in the [military] coup d’etat?
That letter is a letter which expresses the views of millions of people. If an action is righteous, we will support it, no matter who it comes from. This is a long held tradition which even our religion advocates. When an unknown person is treated unjustly, no matter what the religion of that person, when his rights are trampled and when he is subject to injustice, people must stand by him, so he does not feel that he is alone.
It’s not only me, we are all standing with any move that aims for justice. Sometimes you say a word, but it is really a word that all of society feels, or you write a letter on behalf of all people. I believe Mr. Tajzadeh is innocent. But, there is a plan to force him to confess to certain things, and there is plan to force him and his colleagues to say certain things, and so he is subject to torture in solitary confinement. If you really think about the beatings he’s injured in solitary confinement, four days straight, your body will shiver. Who does this and with what mentality? So no matter what the religion of a person may be, no matter how little known or far away they may be, if they have been forced to endure injustice, all of humanity will stand by him.
Considering the fatal blow on religon that the establishment has caused, what do you think our relationship will be towards religon in the future?
We must plead with people, so that they do not consider religon the reason behind our horrible acts which have contributed to a terrifying depiction of religion. People have a right to turn against religion when they are so hurt with our actions. People have a right not to believe in God and the prophet, not to fast and not to pray. Because we have lied to people using this very prophet, this very prayer. We have tormented them using these tools, we have tyrannically trampled their rights.
We have to plead with people so they know that if someone acts in the name of religion, that has nothing to do with the essence of religion. The essence of religion is a call to peace, calm, reason, wisdom and goodness. The call of all holy religions was a call to righteousness, reason and purity and if a group of people were impure and propagated this impurity in the name of religion, we must separate them. The actions of the past few years must not make people turn away from a religion that has come to humanity with open arms. And if such a thing were to happen, I completely understand why a wounded, hurt and traumatized people would turn away from religion....
Monday, August 23, 2010 at 14:56 
UPDATE 23 August: Another day, another super-shiny, super-scary object. From Bloomberg:
