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Wednesday
Sep082010

Israel: Netanyahu's New Year Message "No Concession on Security & Jewish Identity"

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu celebrated Rosh Hashanah with a message on ongoing direct talks with Palestinians: "Lasting peace must be anchored in security and it must be anchored in the recognition of the Jewish state’s permanence in this region, not merely as a fact, but as something that our neighbors accept by right."

Israel-Palestine: Israel’s Security Summit, Abbas and Netanyahu Clash on Core Issues
Video and Transcript: Obama’s New Year Message to Israelis


Transcript:

Dear Friends,

Sitting here in Jerusalem, the united capital of Israel, I want to wish Jewish communities around the world a Happy New Year – Shana Tova.

I hope it will be a year in which our people enjoy security, prosperity and peace.

Last year was one of the safest years in two decades.

But last week’s brutal murder of four Israelis, including a mother of six and a pregnant woman, reminds us that we must never take our security for granted.

We must continue a firm policy that makes clear that terror and missile attacks on our citizens will not be tolerated.

The past year has also seen a resurgence of the Israeli economy.

Israel has weathered the financial crisis better than nearly any other industrialized country.

Our economy is now firmly back on a robust path towards long-term growth.  But of course we know that the crisis is not over and we shall act resolutely, decisively, but also carefully.

In the year ahead, my government will continue on the path of economic reform because a stronger economy means a stronger Israel.

The last few days have also seen a renewal of the peace process.

I had been calling for direct talks with the Palestinians for a year and a half.

I am pleased that President Abbas joined me in those talks without preconditions.

I believe that we should make every effort to reach an historic compromise for peace over the coming year.

I guarantee one thing.  This will not be easy.  But as Israel’s Prime Minister, it is my responsibility to make every effort to forge a lasting peace with our neighbors.

Lasting peace must be anchored in security and it must be anchored in the recognition of the Jewish state’s permanence in this region, not merely as a fact, but as something that our neighbors accept by right.

In the next year, Israel will face many challenges.

I have no doubt that in meeting those challenges, Jewish communities around the world will stand by Israel’s side – I think we've seen that every step of the way up to now. We'll see that every step of the way going forward.

May you all have a healthy and happy New Year.  Shana Tova.
Wednesday
Sep082010

Iran Snap Analysis: Who is Running Foreign Policy?

On Tuesday, the Supreme Leader told industrialists and manufacturers, "The Iranian authorities and nation will undoubtedly circumvent sanctions (against the country) and render them ineffective just as they did over the past three decades and will move ahead with progress and development."

Beyond that straightforward assertion --- would you expect Ayatollah Khamenei to say Tehran is wobbling before the international pressure? --- a more intriguing and possibly more significant story was developing.

Iran Exclusive: FM Mottaki Attempted to Resign over Ahmadinejad Foreign Policy


On Monday and Tuesday, a series of politicians and officials lined up to challenge President Ahmadinejad's appointment of four envoys, including his Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim Mashai, for international affairs. Almost half of the members of Parliament issued a written warning. Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, who tried to resign over the incident but was dissuaded by the Supreme Leader's office, made it clear that "parallel actions" could not be tolerated, a line echoed by Ahmadinejad's primary critics on domestic issues. Even the Foreign Ministry spokesman took a swipe at the President.

So far, however, Ahmadinejad has refused to retract the appointments of the envoys. Indeed, his public display was to dash to Qatar, with his political supporters acclaiming his abilities as a statesman.

Officially, the Iranian line will be --- it has been since 1979 --- that foreign policy is unified under the undeniable authority of the Supreme Leader. But the repeated calls yesterday, almost a week after Khamenei publicly criticised the envoys' appointments, for the President to heed the words of the Supreme Leader indicate that some leading politicians and officials do not believe Ahmadinejad is accepting that official position.

And that in turn, amidst discussion of renewed talks on the uranium enrichment issue and the high-profile regional manoeuvres from Israel/Palestine to Iraq to Afghanistan, raises the question --- both for international community and for Iranians:

Who speaks for Tehran?
Wednesday
Sep082010

Israel-Palestine: Israel's Security Summit, Abbas and Netanyahu Clash on Core Issues

Israel's Security Summit: On Monday, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with members of the Israel Security Council led by Maj.-Gen. (ret.) Uzi Dayan. In the meeting, four strategic measures were discussed in detail: "Maintaining a solid Jewish majority in the State of Israel, preventing the creation of a hostile Palestinian entity that could threaten Israel from Judea and Samaria as is the case today in Gaza, the Iranian threat, and the de-legitimization assault against Israel."

The Israel Security Council also stated that there must be clear red lines during negotiations with Palestinians, especially in maintaining the Jordan Valley as Israel's eastern security border. The need to to strengthen Jewish-democratic identity in Israel and to prevent Iran from arming itself with nuclear weapons were also conveyed to PM Netanyahu.

Video and Transcript: Obama’s New Year Message to Israelis
Israel-Palestine Analysis: Can Ramallah’s “Security” Card Advance the Talks? (Yenidunya)


No Israeli Presence in the West Bank: Talking to al-Ayyam on Monday morning,  Palestine Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas said: “We clarified that [the Palestinian Authority] would not agree to continued Israeli presence, military or civil, within a future Palestinian state.”

Abbas-Netanyahu Challenge on Core Issues: According to Al Quds, Abbas has said that if he is pressured on key issues at the direct talks, such as borders and refugees, he "will take his bags and leave". Abbas stated that the issue of the pre-1967 borders are as important as Israel's emphasis on its security.

Abbas said late Monday that he has asked the U.S. "to intervene in the settlement issue", with the freeze ending in less than three weeks. It appears that Israeli "gestures" instead of an extension of the freeze did not work in Ramallah. Abbas does not see these gestures --- such as transferring an important piece of land from Israeli to Palestinian control, releasing hundreds of prisoners, and removing dozens of checkpoints --- as a substitute of a concession on settlements.

Chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat denied on Monday that there will be a meeting between President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Premier Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem in mid-September. "What has been agreed upon is a meeting between President Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu in Sharm el-Sheikh on Sept. 14 only," Erekat told Xinhua.

On Tuesday, in a Rosh Hashanah greeting, Netanyahu told the nation that there was no guarantee that negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians would succeed, but he vowed to aim for a peace agreement by the end of the year. (Interpretation: Our red lines are crystal-clear, sothere can be no improvement if Palestinians do not come to terms.) He said:
We are trying in good faith, but not naivety, to reach a peace agreement. Any arrangement between us and the Palestinians will be based on two criteria: security and recognition of Israel as a Jewish state.

Security, because no peace will last without a strong anchor of actual security on the ground, not on paper and not as a hazy international commitment. The second thing is the recognition that Israel is the national state of the Jewish people.

If we are asked to recognize a Palestinian state, it is both natural and appropriate that the Palestinians recognize the state of the Israeli people as a Jewish state.
Wednesday
Sep082010

Video and Transcript: Obama's New Year Message to Israelis


Israel-Palestine Analysis: Can Ramallah’s “Security” Card Advance the Talks? (Yenidunya)


Transcript:

As Jews in America and around the world celebrate the first of the High Holy Days I want to extend my warmest wishes for the New Year. L’shana Tova Tikatevu – may you be inscribed and sealed in the Book of Life.

Rosh Hashanah marks the beginning of the spiritual calendar and the birth of the world. It serves as a reminder of the special relationship between God and his children, now and always. And it calls us to look within ourselves – to repent for our sins; recommit ourselves to prayer; and remember the blessings that come from helping those in need.

Today, those lessons ring as true as they did thousands of years ago. And as we begin this New Year, it is more important than ever to believe in the power of humility and compassion to deepen our faith and repair our world.

At a time when too many of our friends and neighbors are struggling to keep food on the table and a roof over their heads, it is up to us to do what we can to help those less fortunate.

At a time when prejudice and oppression still exist in the shadows of our society, it is up to us to stand as a beacon of freedom and tolerance and embrace the diversity that has always made us stronger as a people.

And at a time when Israelis and Palestinians have returned to direct dialogue, it is up to us to encourage and support those who are willing to move beyond their differences and work towards security and peace in the Holy Land. Progress will not come easy, it will not come quick. But today we had an opportunity to move forward, toward the goal we share—two states, Israel and Palestine, living side by side in peace and security.

The scripture teaches us that there is “a time to love and a time to hate, a time for war and a time for peace.” In this season of repentance and renewal, let us commit ourselves to a more hopeful future.

Michelle and I wish all who celebrate Rosh Hashanah a sweet year full of health and prosperity.
Tuesday
Sep072010

The Latest from Iran (7 September): The Real Stories

2140 GMT: Is It Really OK to Criticise the President Now? We noted last evening that the chairman of the Supreme Audit Court, Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, had "taken apart the Ahmadinejad Government over its development plans, privatisation, imports, and subsidy reform".

Iran's Press TV either A) forgot to read EA or B) thought long and hard about whether it would be wise and appropriate to publicise Fazli's criticism. Finally, this afternoon it decided it was OK to let Ahmadinejad have it: "The Iranian government's plans to scrap state subsidies should not lead to 'political disputes' in the country, says the head of Iran's Supreme Audit Court."

Press also noted Fazli's comments on the suspect nature of the Government's privatisation but left out the chairman's scathing remarks on cheap imports pushing out Iranian goods and costing Iranian jobs.

NEW Iran Exclusive: Rafsanjani Declares “I Won’t Bear This Situation”
NEW Iran Exclusive: FM Mottaki Attempted to Resign over Ahmadinejad Foreign Policy
Iran Witness: Political Prisoner Arjang Davoudi From Evin on Human Rights (2008)
Iran Feature: Inside Rajai Shahr Prison (Bijnen)
The Latest from Iran (6 September): Stresses on Authority


2120 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Foreign Policy Problem. You know it's been a bad day for the President when even the Foreign Ministry spokesman is slapping him around.

At his press briefing today, Ramin Mehmanparast was asked if foreign policy had been hindered by the President's appointment of special representatives for international affairs.

Mehmanparast replied, "We believe the Foreign Ministry should not be undermined....The Foreign Ministry is the only body that makes final decision and implement foreign policy."

1540 GMT: School Days. "Free teachers", with between four and eight years of experience, from 5 provinces have protested in front of Parliament over discrimination in professional examinations and lack of jobs.

1535 GMT: Economy Watch. Khabar Online reports that about 800,000 jobs have been lost in agriculture since 2005.

1530 GMT: Sedition Alerts. The head of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, Mohammad Ali Jafari, says fitna (sedition) is much more dangerous than the 1980s war with Iraq. Commander Ali Fazli has asserted that tens of thousands were arrested during the past year's fitna. Of these, 5000 have "repented".

1525 GMT: A New Political Contender? The supporters of the new "Front for Justice and Welfare", linked to Ahmadinejad's Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, met yesterday. They defended the and his Government and sharply attacked the hardline newspaper Keyhan, which has been critical of Rahim-Mashai.

1510 GMT: Parliament v. President. Challenges to Ahmadinejad on a number of fronts....

122 of the 290 MPs in the Majlis have issued a warning to the President about "parallel actions" in foreign policy, reminding him to follow the command of the Supreme Leader.

The Article 90 Commission has threatened to send its file on the National Iranian Oil Company, whose statutes since 2007 are supposedly missing, to the judiciary.

On Wednesday the Parliament will officially present letters of impeachment of Minister of Energy Majid Namjoo and Minister of Agriculture minister Sadegh Khalilian.

Reformist MPs have demanded the pursuit and punishment of the perpetrators, and those who led them, of last week's attacks on the home of Mehdi Karroubi and Qoba Mosque in Shiraz.

1500 GMT: The Battle Within. Mohammad Nabi-Habibi, the Secretary-General of the Motalefeh party, has issued a stinging criticism of the President in Khabar Online.

Nabi Habibi rebuked Ahmadnejad for his "parallel actions" in foreign policy and said he should stop them immediately to please the Supreme Leader. While noting the "good performance" of the Ahmadinejad Governments, he added that they should also accept criticism, end quarrels, and create a better life for the people by establishing justice. He urged concentration on the creation of jobs and economic growth.

Nabi Habibi called for a Government commission with Parliament and the Expediency Council to resolve problems.

1440 GMT: Labour Front. Textile workers in Amol in northern Iran have rallied in front of the governor's office.

1435 GMT: Execution (Sakineh) Watch. The Parliament's Human Rights Commission has condemned the intervention of the French and Italian Governments in the case of Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, condemned to death for adultery.

1430 GMT: Putting Away the Rumour of the Day. The Majlis has denied the story, which we noticed this morning, that Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani suffered a heart attack last week.

1315 GMT: MediaWatch. A quick answer to our enquiry earlier today (see 0650 GMT) about whether Thomas Erdbrink of The Washington Post, one of the few front-line "Western" correspondents in Tehran, would be returning to Iran after a break in The Netherlands.

Turns out Erdbrink's story on the Iranian opposition in Delft, published today, was developed last month, and he is already back in post in the Iranian capital.

1250 GMT: Sanctions Watch. On Monday, the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates froze four Iranian bank accounts, in accordance with the recent sanctions on 41 firms and individuals adopted by the United Nations Security Council.

A source at the CBE said the other 37 accounts on the UN list were outside the country and the amounts frozen in the UAE were "very limited".

1245 GMT: Power Squeeze. Peyke Iran reports that electricity bills for some people in Tehran have risen five times. Khabar Online is also carrying the story.

1120 GMT: Transport News. Claims are circulating that, with a shortage of gasoline in Tehran, private bus drivers are waiting hours at stations.

1025 GMT: Execution (Sakineh) Watch. For the second time in two weeks, the Iranian Foreign Ministry has warned other countries not to interfere in Iran's legal system over Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, sentenced to death for adultery.

"Unfortunately, (they are) defending a person who is being tried for murder and adultery, which are two major crimes of this lady and should not become a human rights issue," Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast. "If releasing all those who have committed murder is to be perceived as a human rights issue, then all European countries should release all the murderers in their countries."

Not sure that the latest Iranian protest will check the pressure, however: the Parliament of the European Union will pass a resolution on Wednesday in support of Ashtiani. On Monday, the introduction of the resolution brought more than 30 minutes of denunciation of Tehran:



1020 GMT: The Foreign Policy Battle. Key MP Ahmad Tavakoli has issued a harsh warning to President Ahmadinejad over his naming and retention of special envoys for foreign policy, amidst the growing dispute with the Foreign Ministry. Tavakoli said that ignoring the commands of Ayatollah Khamenei to cease "parallel actions" would have "grave consequences".

1015 GMT: Stopping the Lawyers. Reporters Without Borders has condemned the detention of defense attorney Nasrin Sotoudeh, whose office was raided on 28 August and who was summoned to the prosecutor's office inside Evin Prison on Sunday over charges of anti-government propaganda and conspiring against the regime

Reporters Without Borders said. “Detained journalists and other political prisoners are denied their most basic rights. Lawyers cannot visit their detained clients or see their case files. Now the repression is being stepped up a notch. By arresting lawyers, the regime is trying to gag the last dissenting voices. Lawyers’ organisations throughout the world must demand this courageous lawyer’s immediate release.”

0755 GMT: Nothing to See Here, Move Along (Nuclear Edition). And now the other side of the headline hype (see 0525 GMT). Press TV quotes Iran's ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, on the IAEA's latest statement: "After seven years of constant inspections, the report once again confirms the non-diversion of Iran's nuclear activities towards military and banned objectives

Ali Abkar Salehi, the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, chimes in, "Like the previous reports, the new report reiterates the non-diversion of declared nuclear material ….Therefore, we believe that the other issues mentioned in the report are minor."

It is useful to note Salehi's response to the most challenging remarks in the IAEA reports, criticising Iran's denial of inspections of its heavy water plant: "The IAEA should tell us that by which clause of the mutual agreement can it inspect the heavy water facilities. We have not found such a clause…if they prove it, I will immediately allow inspectors to visit [the plant]."

0700 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. We have posted an exclusive, based on sources in Iran, "Rafsanjani Declares, 'I Won't Bear This Situation'".

0650 GMT: Opposition Abroad. Here's a story I suspect some EA readers already knew, brought out by Thomas Erdbrink of The Washington Post:
A dreamy university town in the Netherlands known as the birthplace of 17th-century painter Johannes Vermeer has become a major center for Iranian activists abroad.

Over 1,000 Iranian students, the majority fresh arrivals from Iran's best universities, are studying courses such as applied physics and aerospace engineering at the Delft University of Technology, and meeting during evenings in cafes that line the city's canals.

The university hosts one of the largest communities of visiting Iranian scholars in Europe, and many are involved with the Iranian opposition movement.

Now a question: Erdbrink, one of the few front-line "Western" correspondents who remained in Iran during the post-election conflict, by-lines the story from Delft. Is the Dutch national now outside Iran and, if so, will he be able to get back in?
0535 GMT: We're going to leave the nuclear chatter to others, unless there is a significant development. We've got more important matters to consider....

Our exclusive on the tension between the President and the Foreign Ministry, including Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki's attempted resignation, was posted last night. This morning, we'll be putting up an equally important story involving former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, and tomorrow or Thursday we should have an analysis --- based on new information from inside Iran --- of the battle within the regime.

0525 GMT: As we noted at the end of last night, there will be a lot of "Western"media brushfires to put out today,  with the coverage of the International Atomic Energy Agency's latest report on the Iranian nuclear programme. Even though there is almost nothing new of substance in the IAEA summary, most newspapers will be looking for --- actually, they have already seized upon --- a morsel of information to turn into a dramatic statement of conflict and threat.

So far, however, the Obama Administration has put out a relatively muted statement of "disappointment" in Iran over its failure to co-operate fully with the IAEA inspectors. That indicates the US Government is putting more emphasis on the possible resumption of talks with Tehran via the 5+1 Powers rather on a public conflict with Iran.

There is the slighter possibility that another rogue story may be whipped up into a cause for showdown. Reza Aslan, who normally is a good reporter and analyst of Iran affairs, is pushing the speculative and over-hyped claims of the agency STRATFOR that Iran "may have orchestrated last week's brutal attacks by Hamas militants against Israeli settlers in the West Bank in an attempt to derail the Middle East peace talks".
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