The Latest from Iran (25 September): The Nuclear Distraction

NEW Video: Ahmadinejad Interview with Time Magazine
NEW Transcript: Obama and Sarkozy Statements on Iran Nuclear Programme
NEW Iran: Obama's "Get-Tough" Move for Engagement
Iran: Rafsanjani, Ahmadinejad, and the Multi-Sided Chess Match
Latest Video: Full Speech of Ahmadinejad at UN General Assembly
Iran: English Text of Letters between Mousavi and Montazeri (13 and 22 September)

1835 GMT: Report that Azar Mansouri, deputy head of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, has been arrested after an interview with Norooz.

1735 GMT: Is Iran's "Secret Nuclear Plant" Legal? The quick soundbite for Time from its interview with President Ahmadinejad is ""This does not mean we must inform Mr. Obama's administration of every facility that we have."

However, Ahmadinejad may have a point, one which is relevant to the current case. Iran notified the IAEA on Monday that it was constructing a new pilot enrichment plant. If Tehran has not put nuclear material into this facility, Iran is in compliance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty's Comprehensive Full Scope Safeguards Agreement, which requires it to a six-month notification period before nuclear material is put in the facility. (Iran withdrew from the more Subsidiary Agreement 3.1, which requires more detailed and timely notification, after the International Atomic Energy Agency referred Iran's nuclear program to the U.N. Security Council.

So the case to prosecute Iran under the Non-Proliferation Treaty is not clear-cut. Of course, the US can and will rely upon the U.N. Security Council resolutions demanding that Iran cease all enrichment. Whether other countries (China, Russia) take the same line remains to be seen.

1730 GMT: President Ahmadinejad may have backed out of an encounter with the New York media, but he did give a one-on-one video interview to Time magazine. We've posted in a separate entry.

1700 GMT: President Ahmadinejad has replaced his New York press conference with an interview with Press TV.

1500 GMT: We've just posted Chris Emery's shrewd analysis of the politics of the US revelation of the "secret nuclear plant" and the Obama statement: "This high-profile initiative by Obama was designed to get movement on engagement."

1425 GMT: Amidst the continuing chatter on the Obama statement --- no additional information, just the theme of "He was Really Tough" --- news services drop in this interesting twist "Ahmadinejad cancels his 5 pm EST (2100 GMT) speech in NYC [New York City]".

1245 GMT: The Obama Line. The President has just made his statement on the Iran "secret nuclear plant". The message? This demonstrates Iran's "continuing unwillingness" to meets its "international obligations" on development of nuclear capability. This showed the "urgency" of resolution at talks with Iran on 1 October in Geneva.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy has backed this up by saying "everything must be put on the table", and British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has proclaimed this "the most urgent problem" of today.

This feels more and more like a scripted play. The "West" has known for some time that Iran was constructing a second uranium enrichment plant but had not announced this to the International Atomic Energy Agency. Tehran figured out that the US had learned of the plant and was preparing a big setpiece, ahead of the 1 October talks, to reveal the Iranian duplicity. So Iran went to the IAEA on Monday to put its plans above-board. This, however, was  not going to deflect the US-UK-France scheme to put Iran on the defensive in advance of the first direct discussions between Washington and Tehran.

1220 GMT: By the way, there was a Friday Prayer address today. After the drama of recent weeks, this one, by hard-line Government supporter and head of the Guardian Council Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, went almost unnoticed.

Nothing much new here. Jannati talks about triumph over "the enemy" through the political, military, and regional power of Iran and invokes the Holy Defense of the 1980-1988 war against Iraq. Like the Supreme Leader, he portrayed the demonstrations of Qods Day and Eid-ul-Fitr as Iranian support for the world's oppressed, and he condemned the tragedy of the assassination of the Kurdestan member of the Assembly of Experts.

1210 GMT: And Here's You Obama Administration  Line. A "senior Administration source" uses one of the reliable channels (i.e. will put out the message as presented, will not look behind or beyond it), ABC's Jake Tapper: "[Obama] to express 'great and increasing doubts about the strictly peaceful nature' of Iran's nuclear program"

1200 GMT: NBC's Ann Curry nails the politics on the "secret nuclear plant" story, and she only needs 1 Tweet to do it: "Remember the US and Iran about to negotiate. The West has an interest in increasing the pressure now."

1145 GMT: The Iran State Line. Press TV, in an article posted this morning, does not address the "secret nuclear plant" story but refers to French and British allegations of an Iranian nuclear progamme, made during the exchanges at the United Nations this week, as "totally baseless and untrue". The Iranian UN mission added that remarks by French President Nicolas Sarkozy were a "futile attempt aimed to cover up [French] non-compliance with its international disarmament obligations".

1050 GMT: So the story of Iran's "secret nuclear plant" (which isn't secret, since Tehran informed the International Atomic Agency of the construction of the uranium enrichment facility on Monday) is going to dominate the news cycle, as every US and many international outlets rush lemming-like to the tale and President Obama makes a statement at 1230 GMT.

If only someone takes a step back to note this comment from CNN's Fareed Zakaria, made after President Ahmadinejad's UN speech: "Ahmadinejad has been on a campaign over the last few weeks to change the subject. His great fear was that he would come to New York and the subject would be the Iranian regime and his massive repression of the Iranian democracy movement, the street protests, all the allegations being made by Iranians of what is happening in Iran --- rape, torture, abuse. What he wanted to do was to talk about anything but that."

0900 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Useful US Idiots. I was going to write the following analysis for Saturday, but events prompt me to offer a preview:

Ahmadinejad was on verge of major mis-step by playing New York trip as sign that all now resolved at home. 'West', however, played into his hands by raising Iran (and Ahmadinejad) to iconic threat on nuke issue. And Netanyahu gives kiss of death to opposition by praising their supposed aim of regime change. So the President gets to do his aggressive defend-Iran thing, getting more legitimacy out of West than he has many of his own people.

Five minutes after jotting this down, I read the Administration's latest strategic masterpiece in The New York Times, courtesy of David Sanger (who seems to have no recognition that he is a messenger-boy);

President Obama and the leaders of Britain and France will accuse Iran Friday of building a secret underground plant to manufacture nuclear fuel, saying it has hidden the covert operation for years from international weapons inspectors, according to senior administration officials.

Well done, guys. Instead of keeping your mouths shut and letting Ahmadinejad return to political complications at home, you've given him the ideal platform to pose as defender of Iranian sovereignty. And watch how your PR stick, wielded just before talks with Iran on 1 October, is turned into a stick by the President, his allies, and his supportive State media to bash "foreign-directed" reformists and the Green movement at home.

Idiots.

0650 GMT: Catching up, indeed. Even though the EA roadtrip was less than 72 hours, there appears to be a month's worth of incidents to consider. Forget the Ahmadinejad sideshow in New York; the events in and around the Assembly of Experts offer a plethora of possibilities. We've attempted an analysis,
"Rafsanjani, Ahmadinejad, and the Multi-Sided Chess Match", this morning.

Of course, state media features Ayatollah Khamenei's address to the Assembly of Experts, but it also keeps playing up President Ahmadinejad's defiance of the "West", from his warning against sanctions to his explanation that "Down with the US" refers to the "ugly behavior" of the American Government.

The Latest from Iran (21 September): Distractions

Iran: More on Rafsanjani and Khamenei’s End-of-Ramadan Speech
NEW Iran: Khamenei Scrambles for Position
The Latest from Iran (20 September): Khamenei’s End-of-Ramadan Speech

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2010 GMT: The buzz over Imam Khomeini's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, continues. After his appearance yesterday at the Supreme Leader's speech (analysed in a separate entry), the Islamic Republic News Agency has attacked him for his continued visits to the families of detainees (see 1510 GMT).

1535 GMT: Revelation of the Day. Rooz Online claims that the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps has ordered the Ministry of Health not to release the medical records of recently injured protesters, thus covering up the cause of their wounds.

Afternoon Update (1510 GMT): A New Act in the Crackdown? State TV has again put high-profile reformist detainees Saeed Hajjarian, Mohammad Atrianfar, and Saeed Shariati on air in a two-day roundtable to explain and analyse their transgressions, no doubt re-drawing the picture of foreign-directed attempts at regime change. The trio were featured in a roundtable last month after the first wave of Tehran trials.

Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Imam Khomeini, has continued his visits to the families of post-election detainees. The visits have been seen as symbolic of Khomeini's challenge to the current Government and have resumed a day after his appearance at the Supreme Leader's Eid-al-Fitr address.

Parliament Qualms? Deputy Speaker Mohammad Reza Bahonar has again raised the prospect of a legislative clash with the President after the cease-fire that led to approval of the Ahmadinejad Cabinet. Bahonar has expressed qualms about the President's power, saying he is worried that Ahmadinejad will start changing Ministers and declaring that Parliament will force Government to abide by laws.


0820 GMT: A quiet morning, as all sides continue to manoeuvre for position. The major political story is the Supreme Leader's attempt in his speech yesterday both to stabilise his position and to push for a settlement including both the President and Hashemi Rafsanjani. We've analysed that in a separate entry, "Khamenei Scrambles for Position".

Unfortunately, this story is now beyond the comprehension of most "mainstream" media outside Iran. So, instead of considering the internal dynamics, they will be distracted this week by President Ahmadinejad's visit to New York. They will not pick up on the most important aspect of this trip, namely that Ahmadinejad will use it to show Iranian people that he is in control and that protest against him jeopardises Iran's prominent position in world affairs. (Not many people, even veteran Iran-watchers, have figured out that this is why he gave the "exclusive" interview to NBC's Anne Curry.) They will not realise that the importance of Iran's nuclear programme is more in the prestige that it gives the President, especially as he can show defiance against "Western" and Israeli attempts to curb it, than in any imminent military use.

The headlines on the Supreme Leader's speech this morning give the game away: It's Not about Iranians, It's About US. CNN blares, "Iranian leader decries Obama's missile defense plan". The BBC adds, "Khamenei denies US nuclear claims". NBC, having tried to dine out on the interview with President Ahmadinejad, falls back into the superficial with "Iran's leader says U.S. nuke accusations wrong". The New York Times avoids the pitfall by saying nothing at all. (The honourable exception is The Los Angeles Times, which recognises,"Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei Says Opposition Protests Failed".)

Obama's Sunday Media Blitz: The Meet the Press Video/Transcript

Obama’s Sunday Media Blitz: The CNN Transcript
The Obama Sunday Media Blitz: The CBS Video/Transcript

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There will be no less than five interviews with Barack Obama aired today, as each news network scramble to make its face-time "exclusive" on issues from health care to race to Afghanistan. NBC's Meet the Press is the first to put its full interview on-line, with highlights on Afghanistan, health care, and race and political debate.

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

DAVID GREGORY: Mr. President, welcome back to Meet the Press.

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Great to see you.

DAVID GREGORY: This is a critical moment in the health care debate. And you've been able to assess the landscape. You've got a bill now that's working its way through the Senate. You've spoken to congress. As you assess the situation I wonder whether— you approach this with a minimum threshold of what you'll accept for reform? Or at this point have you said, "I've laid out my plan. Take it all or nothing"?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: You know — I— I think that— my focus is on some core principles. I have to have a plan that is good for middle class families who we know last year ended up seeing a 5 1/2 percent increase in their premiums, even though inflation was actually negative on everything else. That have seen a doubling of their premiums over the last decade. That are less secure than ever in terms of the insurance they can actually count on. And more and more of ‘em can't get insurance because of preexisting conditions, or they changed jobs, or they lost jobs.

So it's gotta be good for them. Now, the principles that we've talked about, making sure that there's an insurance exchange that allow people to buy in and get health insurance and negotiate as a big pool to drive down costs. Making sure that— we have insurance reforms that make sure you can still get health insurance even if you've got a preexisting condition and cap out of pocket expenses and so forth. Those core things that make insurance a better deal for American consumers.

Making sure that it's deficit neutral both now and in the future. Making sure that its driving down— health care inflation so that we can actually deal with our long-term budget deficits. Those are the core principles that are critical to me.

And I actually think that we've agreed to about 80 percent of that if you look at all the bills that are coming through all these committees. The key is now just to narrow those differences. And if I don't feel like it is a good deal for the American people, then I won't sign a bill.

DAVID GREGORY: Those narrow differences can also, in some cases, be very big differences. And as you were president elect, last year, you said to the nation, "In light of the huge challenges that the country faces," you said— "we're going to have to make hard choices. And not all of these choices are going to be popular." What are the hard choices that you are now asking the American people to make? And who are you gonna say no to — in order to get health care done?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Well— I— I've already made some— pretty substantial changes in terms of how I was approaching health care. When I was —

DAVID GREGORY: Like the public option. You effectively said to the left, "It's not gonna happen."

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Well what I — no, no, that's not true. What I — what I've said is the public option, I think, should be a part of this but we shouldn't think that, somehow, that's the silver bullet that solves health care. What I've said, for example, on — what's called an individual mandate. During the campaign I said, "Look, if — health care is affordable, then I think people will buy it." So we don't have to say to — to folks, "You know what? You have to buy health care."

And — what — when I talked to health care experts on both the left and the right what they tell me is that, even after you make health care affordable, there's still gonna be some folks out there who — whether out of inertia, or they just don't want to but — spend the money — would rather take their chances.

Unfortunately, what that means, is then you and I and every American out there who has health insurance, and are paying their premiums responsibly every month, they've gotta pick up the cost for— emergency room care when one of those people gets sick. So what we've said as long as we're making this genuinely affordable to families then you've got an obligation to get health care just like you have an obligation to get auto insurance in every state.

DAVID GREGORY: Are these the hard choices though? Who are you saying no to?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Well, that — that — that — I mean, that's an example of — of a hard choice because— that's not necessarily wildly popular. But it's the right thing to do. You know, I — I have said — that it is very important that we take into account the concerns of doctors and nurses who, by the way, support our efforts. And I— and that's something that doesn't get noticed much.

The people who are most involved in the health care system know that it's gotta be reformed. But I've said that we've gotta take into account their concerns about— medical malpractice. Now, that's not popular in my party. Never has been. But I've talked to enough doctors to know that— even though it's not— the end all be all of driving down health care costs, it's very important— to providers to make sure that— their— costs are going down.

So— I think there are gonna be a whole series of Republican ideas, ideas from my opponents during the campaign that we have incorporated and adopted. And this is hard. And— and— the— you know, one of the things I've always said is if this had— this had been easy, it would have been taken care of by Teddy Roosevelt.

DAVID GREGORY: But you're not really taking on, I mean, you're not saying to the left they've got to accept malpractice reform, or — or caps on — on — jury — awards. You don't even think that that contributes to the escalating cost of health care. What are you — what — what are you really doing to say to the left, "Look, you may not like this, but you gotta get on board and we gotta do this"?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Well, listen, I — I think I was awfully clear — and — and I'm surprised — David, maybe you haven't been paying attention to what both the left and the right have been saying about my speech to Congress. I laid down some pretty clear parameters. And what I said was we're gonna take ideas from both sides.

The bottom line is that the American people can't afford to stay on the current path. We know that. And that both sides are gonna have to give some. Everybody's gonna have to give some in order to get something done. We wouldn't have gotten this far if, you know, we hadn't been pretty insistent, including to folks in my own party, that we've gotta get past some of these ideological arguments to actually make something happen.'

DAVID GREGORY: This health care debate, as you well know, can sometimes be about bigger things. And — and among your harshest critics is the view, somehow, that government is out of control. And, in some cases, it's gotten very personal. Your election, to a lot of people, was supposed to mark America somehow moving beyond race. And yet, this week you had former President Jimmy Carter saying most, not just a little, but most of this Republican opposition against you is motivated by racism. Do you agree with that?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: No. Look, I said, during the campaign, are there some people who still think through the prism of race when it comes to evaluating me and my candidacy? Absolutely. Sometimes they vote for me for that reason, sometimes they vote against me for that reason. I'm sure that was true during the campaign, I'm sure that's true now.

But I think you actually put your finger on what this argument's really about. And it's an argument that's gone on for the history of this republic. And that is what's the right role of government? How do we balance freedom with our need to look after one another?

I talked about this in the joint sessions speech. This is not a new argument. And it always invokes passions. And I— it— it was a passionate argument between Jefferson and Hamilton about this. You know, Andrew Jackson built a whole political party around this notion that somehow— you know— there— there is populous outrage against— a federal government that was over inclu— intrusive.

And— and so what— what I think is going on is that we've got a healthy debate taking place. The vast majority of people are conducting it in a very sensible way. I— I think that every president who's tried to make significant changes along these lines, whether it was FDR or Ronald Reagan, elicit very strong passionate responses.

But I do think that we all have an obligation to try to— conduct this conversation in a civil way. And to— recognize that each of us are patriots. That each of us are Americans. And that, by the way, the— my proposals— as much as you may not like them— if you're— a Republican, or on the right, recognize that this is well within the mainstream of what Americans have been talking about for years, in terms of making sure that everybody in this country gets decent health care. And that— people who have health care are protected.

DAVID GREGORY: Just to be clear though. It wasn't just President Carter. There are others in the Congressional Black Caucus. Other thinkers who have said that they agree. That there is racism out there in that opposition to you. I just want to be clear, are you— are you saying to the former president and others, to speak this way is counterproductive?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Well, look— David, here's what I'm saying. I— I— I think that— the media loves to have a conversation about race. I mean, the— this is— is catnip to— to— the media because it is a running thread in American history that's very powerful. And it invokes some very strong emotions.

I'm not saying that race — never matters in— in any of these— public debates that we have. What I'm saying is this debate that's taking place is not about race, it's about people being worried about— how our government should operate.

Now, I think a lot of those folks on the other side are wrong. I think that they have entirely mischaracterized the nature of our efforts. And I think it's important that we stay focused on solving problems as opposed to plucking out a sentence here or a comment there. And then the entire debate, which should be about how do we make sure middle class families have secure health care, doesn't get consumed by— other things.

DAVID GREGORY: In that vein, House Speaker Pelosi worried about the opposition, the tone of it, perhaps, leading to violence as it did in the 70s. There's more recent examples of antigovernment violence— occurring even in the mid 90s. Do you worry about that?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Well, look— I think that we have an obligation in Washington, as leaders, to make sure that we are sending a strong message. That we can disagree without being disagreeable. Without— you know, questioning each other's motives. When we start caricaturing the other side— I think that's a problem.

And— unfortunately, we've got, as I've said before, a 24-hour news cycle where what gets you on the news is controversy. What gets you on the news is the extreme statement. The easiest way to get 15 minutes on the news, or your 15 minutes of fame, is to be rude.

And that's— that's— something that I think has to change. And it starts with me. And I've tried to make sure that I've sent a clear signal. And I've tried to maintain an approach that says, look, we can have some serious disagreements but, at the end of the day, I'm assuming that you want the best for America just like I do.

DAVID GREGORY: You get a lot of airtime too though, and your views are not rude, (LAUGHTER) I don't think you'd say –

(OVERTALK)

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Well, you know, the— I— I— I do occupy— a pretty special seat at the moment. But— but I do think that— look I mean, let's face it, the— if you look at the news cycle over the last— over the last week— you know, it— it— it hasn't been the— the sensible people who, you know, very deliberately talk about the important issues that we face as a country. That's not the folks who've gotten a lot of coverage.

DAVID GREGORY: Let me ask you about another important issue facing you and your administration, and that is Afghanistan. We've now been in Afghanistan for eight years. The Soviets pulled out of Afghanistan after ten years. Are we committed to this war for an indefinite period of time? Or do you think, in your mind, is there a deadline for withdrawal?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: I don't have a deadline for withdrawal. But I'm certainly not somebody who believes in indefinite occupations of other countries. Keep in mind what happened when I came in. We had been adrift, I think, when it came to our Afghanistan strategy. And what I said was that we are going to do a top to bottom review of what's taking place there.

Not just a one time review, but we're gonna do a review before the election in Afghanistan, and then we're gonna do another review after the election. And we are gonna see how this is fitting what, I think, is our core goal. Which is to go after the folks who killed the 3,000 Americans during 9/11, and who are still plotting to kill us, al Qaeda. How do we dismantle them, disrupt them, destroy them?

Now, getting our strategy right in Afghanistan and in Pakistan are both important elements of that. But that's our goal. And I want to stay focused on that. And— and so, right now, what's happened is that we've had an election in Afghanistan. It did not go as smoothly as I think we would have hoped. And there are some serious issues in terms of how that— how the election was conducted in some parts of the country. But we've had that election. We now finally have the 21,000 troops in place that I had already ordered to go.

DAVID GREGORY: Are you skeptical about more troops? About sending more troops?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Well, can I just say this? I am— I have to exercise skepticism anytime I send a single young man or woman in uniform into harm's way. Because I'm the one who's answerable to their parents if they don't come home. So I have to ask some very hard questions anytime I send our troops in.

The question that I'm asking right now is to our military, to General McChrystal, to General Petraeus, to all our national security apparatus, is— whether it's troops who are already there, or any troop request in the future, how does this advance America's national security interests? How does it make sure that al Qaeda and its extremist allies cannot attack the United States homeland, our allies, our troops who are based in Europe?

That's the question that I'm constantly asking because that's the primary threat that we went there to deal with. And if— if supporting the Afghan national government, and building capacity for their army, and securing certain provinces advances that strategy, then we'll move forward.

But, if it doesn't, then I'm not interested in just being in Afghanistan for the sake of being in Afghanistan or saving face or, in some way— you know, sending a message that America— is here for— for the duration. I think it's important that we match strategy to resources.

What I'm not also gonna do, though, is put the resource question before the strategy question. Until I'm satisfied that we've got the right strategy I'm not gonna be sending some young man or woman over there- beyond what we already have.

DAVID GREGORY: On a lighter note, before I let you go, Mr. President, you were brazen this summer at the All Star game wearing your Chicago White Sox (LAUGHTER) jacket out there to throw out the first pitch. Hate to break it to you, but doesn't look so good for your White Sox here. So I want to know who is your pick to win the World Series?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: You know — I am — I think mathematically, the White Sox can still get in the playoffs.

DAVID GREGORY: They can, mathematically. You're an optimist.

PRESIDENT OBAMA: So— until they are eliminated, I will make no predictions.

DAVID GREGORY: Oh, come on.

PRESIDENT OBAMA: I've got say, though, that the — the Cardinals have been— been coming on strong. And Pujols is unbelievable.

DAVID GREGORY: He is.

PRESIDENT OBAMA: But — this is tough to say. The Yankees are also doing pretty well. (LAUGHTER) And a shout out to Derek Jeter for breaking Lou Gehrig's record. He's — he's a classic.

UPDATED Iran: The Extended NBC TV Interview with President Ahmadinejad

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[Earlier commentaries and videos follow the extended 53-minute interview.]

I have been highly critical of the way NBC publicised and rolled out the earlier versions of this interview (see videos below), first in a "teaser" clip and then in the 6 1/2-minute extract featured on last week's NBC Evening News. The extended version has finally gone out on MSNBC today. To be fair, I'll refrain from further analysis until I've had a chance to give this full consideration.

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

The full interview went out on NBC's evening news last night. The lead question-and-answer was, "Did You Steal This Election?", the advance clip that we posted below with our less-than-impressed analysis. To be fair to interviewer Ann Curry, she did follow this with a carefully-phrased challenge as to whether Ahmadinejad's forces had rigged the vote. And, of course, the President held the line with his insistence on brave Iranian people recognising his legitimacy by supporting him.

Curry then jumped to the death of Neda Agha Soltan ("What were your emotions when you saw this video?"). The President handled this easily, promising to investigate a suspicous death. Curry then finally got to current issues of detentions, abuses, and torture, to which Ahmadinejad expressed his regret that some people had been killed but far more security forces had been slain. And that was it: Curry then jumped to the nuclear issue and US-Iran talks.

In short? Curry's claim that the President "made news on several fronts" is blather, as she generally referred to a few basic (if important) symbols of past months inside Iran. She showed no knowledge of what is happening in Iran this week, leaving the President free to walk away unscathed. Indeed, he walked away boosted by the legitimacy granted to him by a major US television network more interested in headline ratings than in an appreciation of the complexity and significance of what is happening in the Islamic Republic.

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

NBC has just posted the first extract from Ann Curry's interview with President Ahmadinejad. Here's their hard-hitting, headline question: "Did you steal the election?"

Pow, what a journalistic coup! Of course, the President was completely flummoxed and said, "Yes. Yes, I did."

OK, not really. Instead he trotted out the line --- familiar to all readers of Enduring America --- that these were the fairest elections in the history of the world, with 85 percent turnout, and other so-called "democracies" should recognise the superior superior system of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

But here's what burns me beyond the ineptitude. Curry's framing of the question of legitimacy is put not in the challenges from the Green movement and those marching on Qods Day but through the Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani.

We'll wait for the rest of the interview but it looks like NBC has given Ahmadinejad and the regime far more legitimacy than they have received from other governments, let alone many of the Iranian people.

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

The American television network NBC previewed its "exclusive" interview with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad about 1220 GMT. The interview is being conducted this afternoon, presumably to be aired tonight. Meanwhile, NBC has talked to the families of the three Americans detained when they crossed the border into Iran.

Already, however, this is in danger of being a travesty. After patting itself enthusiastically on the back for getting the interview, NBC frames these as the issues "at a critical moment": 1) Iran's nuclear programme and negotiations with the US; 2) Ahmadinejad's appearance at the United Nations; 3) the three US "hitchhikers".

No reference to Qods Day. No reference to Hashemi Rafsanjani, the Supreme Leader, and Friday Prayers. No reference to the Green opposition at all apart from the fleeting note of "crackdown on election protestors".

If I'm wrong when the interview is aired, I will say that with relief. For now, this looks like a perfect storm of Ahmadinejad's manoeuvring and the ineptitude of the US mainstream media.

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

The Latest from Iran (18 September): Qods Day

NEW Qods Day Video Special: The Black-and-White Soccer Game
NEW Iran's Qods Day: The Participants Speak
Qods Day: The Discussion Continues
Iran Qods Day: Snap Analysis and Summary Translation of Ahmadinejad Speech
NEW Iran Video: Qods Day Protests (18 September)
UPDATED Iran: The Full NBC TV Interview with President Ahmadinejad
NEW Iran: What’s at Stake on Qods Day for Green Movement and Regime?
Iran: So, What Are the Green Movement’s Goals Tomorrow?


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2135 GMT: The Best Rumour of the Day (1745 GMT) is now Fun Fact of the Day. Iranian state television did show tonight's football match in black-and-white, and we've got the video.

2040 GMT: An Important Note to Close (For Now). I was going to hold this until morning, but as a reader has noted on the discussion thread, it is far too important a development to be treated lightly.

Advar reports what we have been observing since yesterday: there are worrying signs that the Internet is being strangled inside Iran, with slowing speeds. An EA correspondent adds reports from Iran that other services, such as Yahoo Messenger and Gmail, are unreachable and anti-filter mechanism are also almost completely down. He asks, "Could this be the start of the Government's [next] crackdown?"

2006 GMT: I'm Going to Tell You One More Time, New York Times (1155 GMT). Your headline writer has his priorities wrong: "Amid Large Protests, Iran Leader Calls Holocaust a Lie".

Here's your rewrite: "Despite President's Israel Diversion, Large Protests Challenge Government".

(I swear that I wrote this seven minutes before reading this from the National Iranian American  Council, "The NYT editors need some help today. Their coverage shouldn’t be entitled, 'Amid Large Protests, Iran Leader Calls Holocaust a Lie'. The real headline should be 'Thousands Protest at Rallies Despite Threats'.")

1950 GMT: A Good Mystery to End the Night: Why Did Ali Larijani Meet the Clerics?

Tehran Bureau, drawing from Tabnak, has part but only part of the story: "Majlis [Parliament] speaker Ali Larijani has secretly met with Grand Ayatollah Naser Makarem-Shirazi at his residence in Qom." The full story is that Larijani met not only Makarem-Shirazi but also Ayatollahs Nouri-Hamedani and Safi-Golpaygani to "discuss current important issues of the country".

So why has Larijani sat down with three clerics who have criticised the Government to varying degrees, including one (Safi-Golpaygani) who was castigated by the Supreme Leader for sending a letter criticising the Cabinet? Try this: just as Larijani, acting for Ayatollah Khamenei, called in Mehdi Karroubi at the start of this week to ask him to quiet down, now he is carrying the Supreme Leader's message that it would be best for all concerned if everyone stepped back from public criticism.

The problem for Larijani and Khamenei is that today's demonstrations are likely to embolden the senior clerics, making it more difficult to bring them in line.

1845 GMT: Two New Entries. Because of all the great discussion amongst the readers, we've started a new thread for debate.

And, thanks to an excellent EA source, we've got first-hand observations from participants in marches in five different locations across Tehran. The Best Rumour of the Day about the Football Match (1745 GMT)? It's true. The heckling of Ahmadinejad when he was talking with IRIB Channel 2 after his speech ("Ahmadi, Ahmadi, Resign, Resign!")? Also very true.

1745 GMT: Best Rumour of Day. "Only parts of today's soccer match were televised [by state media], in black and white without sound, hiding green effects and chants."

And it gets better: "State TV sports commentator says we only have one camera at the soccer match and it is not functioning."

1738 GMT: Picture. (Tens of) Thousand(s of) Words. How big were the rallies? Well, going through the visual evidence including this entry's photo, taken in Azadi Square, we will now say that "tens of thousands" were marching and demonstrating today.

1733 GMT: Another Arrest. Fatemeh Dardkeshan, daughter of the reformist activist (and student of Ayatollah Montazeri) Mahmoud Dardkeshan, has been detained.

1732 GMT: The Jostling of Khatami. This photo of the former President being bumped into retreat (reminiscent of Mehdi Karroubi being jostled at the 17 July Friday Prayers of Hashemi Rafsanjani) has emerged.



1730 GMT: Reports that SMS is being reconnected in Tehran.

1700 GMT: The buzz is still about whether or not Mir Hoseein Mousavi showed up today, with the claim of a second photograph and a new report from "a witness" claiming that "supporters rushed Mousavi into his car when the hard-liners approached". To be honest with you (and foreshadowing our Saturday analysis), however, the issue is not as much about the authenticity of the pictures as it is the legitimacy of Mousavi's leadership.

"Everyone" knows that Mehdi Karroubi made a stand by appearing at the rallies today. "Everyone" knows that Mohammad Khatami went to the rally and was jostled into retreat. But not everyone knows that Mousavi made a public stand. They are not certain if he participated and, if he did so, whether he was with the protestors or "pro-Government" crowds.

In other words, Mousavi has done a lot with written statements since July but writing in this case is cheap. What is at issue here is whether Mousavi (as he did early in the crisis) is a public face as well as an author for "The Green Path of Hope".

1530 GMT: Radio Farda says 800 protesters have gathered in front of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting buildings in north Tehran.

1450 GMT: Internet is still buzzing with reports of clashes inside and outside Tehran. One that has received press support is of a crackdown by security forces in Isfahan.

1420 GMT: Josh Shahryar has written concisely and effectively about the issues surrounding the claimed picture of Mir Hossein Mousavi at today's rally (see 1335 GMT).

1415 GMT: More Cyber-Wars. Rah-e-Sabz reports that it, like other sites such as Mowj-e-Sabz, has been under attack. The site claims that much of the Internet in Iran was cut off or restricted in anticipation of today's rallies.

1400 GMT: A Journalist's Ponderings. Hard on the heels of her interview with President Ahmadinejad, NBC's Ann Curry offers this exclusive insight, "Ahmadinejad on Twitter: 'I don't have a problem with it. But it should not be used for wrong purposes.'"

So has this posted because Ms Curry is in agreement with her interviewee, considering Twitter to be a dangerous inconvenience to proper politics and journalism? Or could she, after the follies of NBC's excursion to Iran, be reflecting that the President sees Twitter as more of a threat --- opening avenues of information and analysis --- than the woman who just interviewed him?

1335 GMT: Mousavi Mystery. As Afshin has noted in comments below, there is a photograph which claims to be of Mir Hossein Mousavi at the Qods Day rally today. There is a great deal of confusion, as the photograph has been posted by the Facebook site run by supporters of Mousavi and by Mehr News, which claims it shows Mousavi supporting a pro-Government rally.

For now, we're treating the picture as suspect and a possible weapon in a war of information/disinformation, as there has been no other indication that Mousavi made it to the rally today.

1315 GMT: More Arrests of Clerics' Relatives? Mowj-e-Sabz reports, "In the protests today, Hamed, Naser and Hajar Montazeri - grandchildren of Ay Montazeri were arrested. Marzia Elahinia, Hamed Montazeri's wife, and Sara Azizi, Naser Montazeri's wife, were also arrested. Ayatollah Rabbani's daughter Loya Rabbani and her daughter Zahra Dostmohammadi and Mohammad Hossein Rabbani another of his grandchildren were also arrested."

Some confusion here as three of Montazeri's grandchildren were reported to have been arrested earlier this week and it is unclear if there are more grandchildren being arrested, the same grandchildren being detained again, or a mix of two reports. In any case, the regime's pressure on the senior clerics who are challeging it is now very apparent.

1250 GMT: And Yes, Virginia, There is a Khatami. Mohammad Khatami was at the Qods Day rally today, if only briefly. Parleman News posts a set of pictures, two of which we've reproduced. The first is Khatami's arrival; the second may be an indication of the security forces' response that forced Khatami to leave.



1155

1155 GMT: We've moved Mr Smith's outstanding near-live translation of the Ahmadinejad speech from our updates to a separate entry, together with his snap analysis of the President's language and strategy.

I've only seen the headlines on "mainstream" coverage of the speech, but I'll put down a marker. Any news service that frames this as "Ahmadinejad Revives Holocaust Myth" (oh, look, The New York Times has just fulfilled our prediction) or "Ahmadinejad Bashes Israel" is missing the big picture. The real story is that Ahmadinejad avoided comment on the challenge to him within Iran, so the Israel angle is simply a high-profile diversion (and one that I suspect will work with most "Western" journalists).

The second smokescreen, thanks to NBC's supposed masterpiece of coverage, will be incessant recycling of Ahmadinejad's comments on talks with the US over Iran's nuclear programme, ignoring what should have been today's focus on the Qods Day rallies.

1120 GMT: Cyber-Attacks. After Parleman News reported last night that it is being filtered by the Government, preventing access inside Iran, the Green movement's site Mowj-e-Sabz is now down.

1100 GMT: Yes, Virginia, There is a Mehdi. Confirmation that Mehdi Karroubi was at the Qods Day rally today comes in a video posted on the Facebook pages of Mir Hossein Mousavi. We're now posting it in our video section.

1045 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz posts an overview of protests, arrests, and clashes in "Bushehr, Rasht, Tabriz, Isfahan, Shiraz, Isfahan, Ahvaz, Mashhad...."

1030 GMT: How Big? As you can appreciate, we are erring on side of caution in making projections on size of rally. But, looking across video evidence (some of it posted in our separate entry), I would now go beyond "several thousand" protesting in Tehran. Does the question go beyond, "Ten Thousand?" to "How many tens of thousands?"

1015 GMT: Oh, Yeah, The Friday Prayer. Apparently Ahmad Khatami said, "There are two basic reasons for our support for Palestine and Quds, first because Muslims are a single nation and second because we support the oppressed....The Zionists have tried to make this Quds Day a failure but they will not succeed". And so on.

1010 GMT: So "Where Is Mir Hossein Mousavi?" Here's the answer from the Islamic Republic News Agency: "Strong protests of people to Khatami, Mousavi and Karroubi's presence at Qods demonstration". The newspaper reports, "Mousavi showed up at Vali-Asr intersection at 12 noon with a few bodyguards, and was forced to retreat after confronted with people shouting "Death to Mousavi the hypocrite, Mousavi, Mousavi Shameless". It adds that Khatami and Karroubi were also forced away.

Al Jazeera is now reporting this although "it cannot verify".

0935 GMT: Catching Our Breath for Questions. The news that Mohammad Khatami was "attacked" and forced away from the rally seems solid (0809 GMT). But did Mehdi Karroubi appear and speak to the marchers (0633 GMT).

And where is Mir Hossein Mousavi?

0930 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz is now reporting clashes and "violent situation" in Isfahan and clashes and arrests in Tabriz.

0915 GMT: Classic (and Accurate) Quote of Day. It's from Josh Shahryar, "Get yer cokes and pizzas folks. It's gonna be a long day."

0910 GMT:More on Rallies. Al Jazeera is already bumping the President aside for the marches, as their footage indicates there may be more than the "several thousand" we just projected. CNN's Reza Sayah on Twitter claims, "3-4 kilometre stretch between Vali Asr Square & Laleh Park packed with tens of thousands of opposition supporters".

0845 GMT: How Big Are the Rallies? Images on Al Jazeera television show masses of people on the move, and Agence France Presse is claiming "tens of thousands" from witnesses.

A source inside Iranian media has told EA that the internal broadcast feed is showing 3000-3500 demonstrators. Based on the reports, we now feel comfortable saying “several thousand” Green Wave supporters are marching, wearing green wristbands, with the largest confirmed rally at the Vali-e Asr intersection, near Tehran University on Enghelab Street.

(We think that the AFP report of "tens of thousands" may include not only Green Wave supporters but also onlookers and some Ahmadinejad supporters who are also present or are on way to Tehran University.)

0809 GMT: Parleman News claims confirmation of reports, which we have been followed, that former President Mohammad Khatami was "attacked" and forced to leave the Qods Day rally. The newspaper claims this was done at the behest of the son of the editor of Kayhan newspaper, Hossein Shariatmadari.

0745 GMT: President Ahmadinejad starting his speech introducing Friday Prayers. See our separate summary translation.

0740 GMT: Excuse of Day (So Far). Iranian state TV says, “Unfortunately we can't covered Qods Days rallies with helicopter because security forces have prevented us.”

0730 GMT: Reports coming in of preparation for Friday Prayers in Tehran. Government figures such as Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki in crowd, President Ahmadinejad arriving.

0715 GMT: EA correspondent confirms following Twitter claim, "Iranian State TV broadcasting the protests without sound and saying people are chanting for Palestine". He adds, "Footage is very sanitised."

0710 GMT: Counter-claim. Well-placed source in Iranian media tells EA correspondent that "few hundred" have gathered in Tehran squares. No mention of Karroubi or Khatami amongst protestors. Source says this is from "internal (and thus unseen) broadcast feeds", not what is actually being aired on State TV.

0705 GMT: Reported chanting of "Long Live Montazeri!! Viva Sane'i" (praising two Grand Ayatollahs who have criticised the Government) at Karim-Khan Bridge.

0700 GMT: Reports that tear gas has been used in 7 Tir Square to disperse crowds.

0633 GMT: And The Plan Rolls Out. Mehdi Karroubi is speaking in 7 Tir Square, shouting "Death to Oppression!". Mohammad Khatami is also reported to be present.

0630 GMT: Reports of clashes in Isfahan's Enghelab Square.

If the plan laid out by Mehdi Karroubi's office yesterday is being followed, he should be marching to and possibly arriving in 7 Tir Square now.

0615 GMT: An Important Caution. We are being very careful about reports of numbers and intensity of protests. While those passing information are well-intentioned, the claims are always prone to exaggeration or distortion as they are passed along.

That said, there are signs that these will be the largest gatherings since June. One report from a source in Tehran: "There's too many people [at 7 Tir Square]. The [security] forces are just watching in awe."

0610 GMT: Unconfirmed reports that marchers gathering in Qom.

CNN, after days ignoring Iran, has now decided this is a Very Important Story, previewing Ahmadinejad's speech with "Tense in Tehran" and "High Alert".

0555 GMT: Reports from numerous sources of chanting from protestors, including "God is Great", "Yah Hossein! Mir Hossein!", and "Death to the Dictator". Also people are gathering under Karim Khan Bridge chanting "No Gaza, No Lebanon --- My Life for Iran".

0535 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz, the website of the Green movement, is filled with reports of Revolutionary Guard warnings. Thursday's statements are reported as "IRGC Preparing for Bloodbath", and then there is this claim: "According to an informed source, the security forces, based on prior plans, intend to arrest Mir-Hossein Moussavi and Mehdi Karroubi following the Quds Day Marches.""

0515 GMT: It is now 9:45 a.m. in Tehran. There are reported gatherings in Tehran at 7 Tir, Vanak, and Mirdamak Squares. Uniformed security forces are gathering in Enghelab Square near Tehran University. Claims also of gatherings in Tabriz, Isfahan, and Shiraz.

From ePersian Radio via Twitter source: "Big crowd [latest report of 1000+] in 7 Tir square, most are wearing green, lots of basijis/soldiers." Another source claims, from ePersian Radio, that Grand Ayatollahs Montazeri and Sane'i have said they will join the rally.