Saturday
Sep192009
Iran After Qods Day: What Next for the Green Movement (The Sequel)?
Saturday, September 19, 2009 at 12:25
Iran: The Lessons of Qods Day (Parts 1 and 2)
The Latest from Iran: Challenge Renewed (19 September)
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Yesterday Mr Smith set out the questions for the Green Movement on Qods Day. Just over 24 hours later, this is his re-assessment of the prospects for the opposition, which intersects with Scott Lucas' appraisal of the long-term political challenges:
The Green Wave succeeded in its main objective yesterday. Ever since the start of Ramadan, the reformist opposition to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, led by Mehdi Karroubi, was striving to make Qods Day the focal point for anti-government demonstrations. The target was to "stand up and be counted", and to prove that the Green Wave rank and file have not been cowed into silence by the litany of violence unleashed against it by pro-government security forces.
The Quds Day events have set a precedent for the Green Wave. From now on, every public holiday, or event that includes a large public gathering, can now be exploited by the opposition as an opportunity. The demonstrators can fan out in the streets and highlight the government's main weakness, its behaviour like an administration that claims to have received 24 million votes in the "most free and fair elections ever". If nothing else, the reformists have and will succeed in causing serious embarrassment for the authorities, as the decision to air a football game in black-and-white and with muffled sound, hiding any reformist supporters in the stands - highlights.
The reformist leadership however, has failed to produce a structured, middle- to long-term strategy. Of its three main leaders, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami and Mehdi Karroubi, it is Karroubi who has been most active and vocal lately, producing several hard-hitting communiques detailing allegations of rape and rebuking indirect notices by the Supreme Leader to back down over his claims. Possibly out of concern for the well-being of their close associates that have yet to be jailed, Mousavi and Khatami have retreated from adopting the same tactic. Mousavi continues to profess allegiance to the institutional configuration of the regime and the Constitution, and somewhat romantically links the current crisis to a distorted view, by the current incumbents, of the prerogatives assigned to institutions such as the Guardian Council, the Presidency
and , indirectly, the Supreme Leadership, without questioning, at least so far, the validity of the institutional configuration described within the current constitution. This could well prove to be a conceptual Achilles Heel for Mousavi.
The situation on the ground in Iran hence appears to be that of a nervous stalemate. The government is entrenched and appears unwilling to concede any sort of concession to the opposition. The latter is defiant, has the remarkable capacity to send thousands of its supporters out in the streets and coordinate them effectively via the Internet (web-designed slogans were sung with amazing coordination across the cities of Iran yesterday). However, the Green Wave is not yet willing to embark on a new level of challenge, one that would presumably see Karroubi, Mousavi, and Khatami upping the ante by, amongst other things, sending open letters straight to the Supreme Leader.
Also unresolved is the fate of the dozens of journalists, top reformist officials, and civil society activists who have been regularly arrested in the past three months. The regime is therefore likely to keep up the pressure and continue to retaliate against the opposition leaders by harassing their immediate associates. Meanwhile, Mousavi, Khatami and Karroubi will have to go back to the drawing board to ponder othe next stage of their strategies. The imminent end of Ramadan might be auspicious in this regard: Mousavi has promised that the official launch of his new political initiative, the "Green Wave of Hope", will immediately follow Sunday's Eid al-Fitr.
The Latest from Iran: Challenge Renewed (19 September)
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
Yesterday Mr Smith set out the questions for the Green Movement on Qods Day. Just over 24 hours later, this is his re-assessment of the prospects for the opposition, which intersects with Scott Lucas' appraisal of the long-term political challenges:The Green Wave succeeded in its main objective yesterday. Ever since the start of Ramadan, the reformist opposition to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, led by Mehdi Karroubi, was striving to make Qods Day the focal point for anti-government demonstrations. The target was to "stand up and be counted", and to prove that the Green Wave rank and file have not been cowed into silence by the litany of violence unleashed against it by pro-government security forces.
The Quds Day events have set a precedent for the Green Wave. From now on, every public holiday, or event that includes a large public gathering, can now be exploited by the opposition as an opportunity. The demonstrators can fan out in the streets and highlight the government's main weakness, its behaviour like an administration that claims to have received 24 million votes in the "most free and fair elections ever". If nothing else, the reformists have and will succeed in causing serious embarrassment for the authorities, as the decision to air a football game in black-and-white and with muffled sound, hiding any reformist supporters in the stands - highlights.
The reformist leadership however, has failed to produce a structured, middle- to long-term strategy. Of its three main leaders, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami and Mehdi Karroubi, it is Karroubi who has been most active and vocal lately, producing several hard-hitting communiques detailing allegations of rape and rebuking indirect notices by the Supreme Leader to back down over his claims. Possibly out of concern for the well-being of their close associates that have yet to be jailed, Mousavi and Khatami have retreated from adopting the same tactic. Mousavi continues to profess allegiance to the institutional configuration of the regime and the Constitution, and somewhat romantically links the current crisis to a distorted view, by the current incumbents, of the prerogatives assigned to institutions such as the Guardian Council, the Presidency
and , indirectly, the Supreme Leadership, without questioning, at least so far, the validity of the institutional configuration described within the current constitution. This could well prove to be a conceptual Achilles Heel for Mousavi.
The situation on the ground in Iran hence appears to be that of a nervous stalemate. The government is entrenched and appears unwilling to concede any sort of concession to the opposition. The latter is defiant, has the remarkable capacity to send thousands of its supporters out in the streets and coordinate them effectively via the Internet (web-designed slogans were sung with amazing coordination across the cities of Iran yesterday). However, the Green Wave is not yet willing to embark on a new level of challenge, one that would presumably see Karroubi, Mousavi, and Khatami upping the ante by, amongst other things, sending open letters straight to the Supreme Leader.
Also unresolved is the fate of the dozens of journalists, top reformist officials, and civil society activists who have been regularly arrested in the past three months. The regime is therefore likely to keep up the pressure and continue to retaliate against the opposition leaders by harassing their immediate associates. Meanwhile, Mousavi, Khatami and Karroubi will have to go back to the drawing board to ponder othe next stage of their strategies. The imminent end of Ramadan might be auspicious in this regard: Mousavi has promised that the official launch of his new political initiative, the "Green Wave of Hope", will immediately follow Sunday's Eid al-Fitr.