The Latest from Iran: Challenge Renewed (19 September)

NEW Iran After Qods Day: What Next for the Green Movement (The Sequel)?
NEW Iran: Another Qods Day Participant Writes
Latest Iran Video: More from Qods Day (18-19 September)
NEW Iran: The Five Lessons of Qods Day
Qods Day Video Special: The Black-and-White Soccer Game
Iran’s Qods Day: The Participants Speak
Qods Day: The Discussion Continues
Iran Qods Day: Snap Analysis and Summary Translation of Ahmadinejad Speech

The Latest from Iran (18 September): Qods Day
NEW Iran Video: Qods Day Protests (18 September)

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2200 GMT: We took a break tonight to recuperate from the drama of Friday. To be honest, almost all the chatter is a recycling of the events and images of Qods Day.

There are intriguing developments surrounding the clerical opposition to the Government. Mowj-e-Sabz reports that Grand Ayatollah Montazeri was forced to cancel an important annual prayer.

The Green Movement is highlighting the possibility that marjas, the highest-ranking senior clerics, will not declare that Ramadan has ended Sunday and can be celebrated with the feast of Eid al-Fitr. In particular, it is noted that the websites of Ayatollah Montazeri and of Ayatollah Sane'i have not yet declared that the Holy Month is over.

Ayatollahs Mousavi-Ardebili, Safi-Golpaygani, and Bayat-Zanjani are also declaring that they have not seen the crescent of the moon. And now Hojatoleslam Taghdiri, the head of the crescent observation committee of  Tehran Province, has said that there is no way that the crescent can be observed tonight, permitting Eid al-Fitr to proceed tomorrow.

The statements are significant because they defy the declaration of the Supreme Leader that Sunday is the end of Ramadan holiday.

1540 GMT: In his first statement after Qods Day, Mehdi Karroubi has told medical faculty of the great opportunity "to expose in court atrocities which would have made the Shah look good".

1250 GMT: The Quds Day Football Mystery (continued). Two readers continue the tireless effort to sort out what happened with last night's Iranian state TV broadcast of the Esteghlal-Estell Azin match (video in separate entry and see 0740 GMT). Both note that the game was re-broadcast, after the "problems" with live transmission. One notes, "It was in colour and not in black and white as reported. There were many Esteghlal fans in the stadium but almost all of them came in blue. You could see glimpses of green colour among them, but, as I said, about 95% of the came in blue. I also couldn't hear any opposition slogans during the game, to be honest."

The other reader has the possible answer: "They started over from the beginning of the match, in color, with the sound edited from another match (so Green chants could not be heard). Also they cut away several times to another camera on the sideline for showing reaction shots of the bench/coaches, even though they said there was only one camera in Azadi Stadium."

1240 GMT: Maryam at Keeping the Change has taken on the task of sifting through the information to establish "whether Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, Ali-Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, and Mohammad Khatami...took part in the Qods Day demonstrations". Her thoughtful but provocative assessment:

Mousavi and Rafsanjani could have been forced to appear in the protests against their wills or may have been given the choice to either stay away from the demonstrations or attend the government-sponsored rallies. The men may have calculated that failing to appear at the marches would be more damaging than participating in the pro-government demonstrations....The utilitarian calculations of the two men and the propaganda potential of these images aside, the presence of Mousavi, in particular, at the pro-government rally may prove to have undermined his "Opposition"-credentials, giving the impression (whether true or misleading) that he has become less assertive, more prone to succumb to government pressure, and/or is in a weakened position vis vis the government. As for Rafsanjani, a similar analysis may be appropriate, though his historical tendency to walk a fine line between competing interest groups militates against rushing to judgment on his motivations.

1130 GMT: Definitely a lull after the storm of events. We've now completed and posted the analyses of Mr Smith, "What Next for the Green Movement (The Sequel)?", and of Scott Lucas, "Iran: The Five Lessons of Qods Day". We've also got a new account from a participant in the demonstration and a new video thread as well as yesterday's video collection.

0830 GMT: Contrary to our fears at the end of yesterday, it appears that the regime's restrictions on the Internet were more to stifle the Qods Day protests than as a forerunner of an even more intense crackdown of arrests. Some Internet services have been restored in Iran.

0820 GMT: Three of the grandchildren of Ayatollah Montazeri, arrested yesterday, have been released. Three of his grandchildren remain in detention.

0740 GMT: The Qods Day Football Match. Our quirkiest story of the day, complete with video, gets even better. The latest account is that state television's coverage was delayed and limited to one black-and-white camera not because of the fears of Green symbols and chants but because the regime's efforts to limit communications hindered IRIB's technical systems. (I think the Blue team won 2-0 but I can't tell which one was Blue.)

0600 GMT: To be honest, this is a holding entry. For the first time in 24 hours, it is possible to draw breath and take a reflective step back, as the news from Iran is slow this morning, in part because of the Government's attempts to close down information on the scale of its setback yesterday, more because everyone is trying to take in exactly what happened on Qods Day.

The regime will try to regain its balance today. Press TV has a lovely example. Its story just before I went to bed was "Iran's Opposition Marches on Qods Day", a recognition that "supporters of Iran's opposition movement...joined the major annual commemorative rally showing their loyalty to their leaders". This morning the website is back on the proper line: "Iranians March in Solidary with Palestinians".

But, barring a swift crackdown by the Government, with a wave of high-profile arrests, the question of initiative will be with the opposition. What can the leaders and the Green Wave do with the opportunity offered by the tens of thousands who, after all that has been thrown at protest to make it go away, "won" with their defiance --- in anger, sadness, hope, and more than a bit of humour --- yesterday?

That's what EA staff will work on now. The first part of our opening analysis is now posted.

Comments

[Afshin]

After the analyses of the War being fought (at each level/Battlefield), The analyses of Hashemi's Arsenal of Weapons and finally the weapon arsenal of the S.L I was hoping to do the same for the Guards today. Instead I want to make another analyses, of which the opening might raise a few eyebrows.

Qods day was great victory for the Supreme Leader.

Yes it absolutly was. Yes you are reading this right, Supreme leader was the absolute Victor yesterday and no Samuel has not managed to hack my computer and is not writing this in my place.

Well offcourse there is BIG unless. Qods day was great victory for the Supreme Leader UNLESS either the Guards, Hashemi/ Reformists or the Public is willing to go all the way.

If none of these parties is willing to take this to the next level then we are just replaying the moves ending things in a draw and in that case the S.L is the only winner. Let me explain more;

We have called this great battle the 4 sided chess match before. Actually there are 6 sides but 1 we left out and the other we united with the reformists. For today though I would like to look at aal sides and specially what it is they are fighting for;

1) the Guards,
Well I guess it is clear what they want, they want a coup, they have been working hard at it for years and are more or less on target, getting there bit by bit. They want the old establishment out. I have said this before something is making them increase spead causing them issues. It's like they are on a race against the clock. The only thing I could think off was the S.L being more ill then we all think. Hashemi being the Head of Assembly of experts would pose a serious threat and would need to be dealt with before that day comes.

Results Qods day : Not great, they saw their enemies take over Qods day, regain legitimacy and strenght.

2) Hashemi,
Hashemi is and represents the old establishment. The Clerical regime, the Marja's, the ayatollahs, Qom and to a great extent Mashhad. They not only want their piece of the pie but also are forced to act, to unite, to fight back as the guards have opend a full attack on them. They are almost forced in to this war.

Results Qods day : Not bad, People did shout for Montazeri, Sanei and even Hashemi. Could have been better but it was a good start.

3) Reformist,
The leaders of the reformist are pretty much all old establishment them selves. And it is here that the most important question rises; do they just want back in and are claiming their piece of the pie OR are they really wanting change? Perhaps even both but if so then which of the two has their priority? If they want real change then they infact represent the people and we were right to exclude them as a player on the chess board since they are being represented by the reformist. If they are fighting for them selves first and foremost then people should be considerd a player as well.

Results Qods day : A good win, They were pushedm they were shoved, they were threatend, arrested, hospitalised, even attacked on the day (khatami) but stood their ground and the people answered. The turnup was not in the millions but beyond the expectation of many.

4) the People,
We left them out before as they are represented by the reformists. People want change, Religious, not religious, Pro Revolution, anti revolution, does not really matter, even parts of the guards want change.

Results Qods day : Small win, we did not see the millions but still a huge crowed. A small victory, yet one has to mention that the police and the guards seemed to have been ordered to keep quit. It would have been a great victory if the people had some more resistance on their way and would have come on top still.

5) Foreign powers
Well this is another one we have left out and I guess they are participating in the war amongst them selves.

- Russia and China on one side (lost yesterday)
- Europe, they have also many interests in Iran and want to protect them, they have remaind out of the danger zone so far
- USA, well they also want theit piece of pie back. I guess who they get it from is not really important.

Results Qods day : Loss for China and Russia, Europe hard to say, Usa Hard to say as I do not know what their interests are at the moment.

6) Supreme Leader
Supreme leader is very much the representative of the Conservatives and the principlists. Allthough he has seen some conservatives flirt with hashemi and some priciplist flirt with the guards he is still the main man and the only one who wants a status quo. He need a balans of power which he has managed so badly that it may tip over now. He can not afford to let the Reformists back in to much as they represent the people, are backed by the clerics and also represent everything he loaths, he cant let them be ousted to much as the balans of power is gone, once the reformists and the Clerics are gone his role becomes obsolete and he is the next to go in the hunger for power of the guards. He needs to keep the balans, a somewhat weak but alive opposition vs the Guards and him in the middle.

If what i claim above is correct then the S.L is indeed the winner of Qods day. Cause right now we are still very much in a position of runing in circles repeating the moves. Looking at the same groups one can say ok we know what they want but what will they settle for. In some cases its hard to say but lets have a try;

1) the Guards,
I think they want it all, they will not settle with anything less then full control. They fear something, perhaps Hashemi and the clerics (assembly of Expert incase the leader dies) they need this to end now. Specially now that more and more clerics are seeing the ploth

2) Hashemi
He is is a position of power, Status quo for now suits him fine. He is on the defence and he can play the ropes. Let the guards come. I think he is very capable of accepting a bargain.

3) Reformist,
Unless they want to go all the way which I doubt they would, their faith seems very much in the hands of Hashemi for now. Ithink they are all capable of making a deal.

4) The People
I doubt that people will settle for anything else then Change, the question is will they accept gradual change or can they be fooled with the illusion of change yet again (8 years of Khatami) ?

5) The West
Well they all want their piece of the pie and they are not crazy about sharing
China and Russia - Status Quo just suits them fine
Europe - Same here
USA - Well they are the big losers of the revolution, left or right give us our piece. How they want to achieve this I am not sure, regime change, Deal with S.L ??

6) S.L
well status Qua fits him just fine. Perhaps bye off some reformistsm give them some symbolic victories and stay in power till the end. His problem however is the other players are out of control and as I stated in the S.L analyses his guns are not working good.

Will anybody take this to the next level? if so then the S.L may end up being the biggest loser, will they smell danger and settle Supreme leader would be the great victor.

Personally I seriously doubt this match will end up in a tie but how will they take it to the next level. Arresting of Karoubi and Mousavi, the assembly of expert meeting are things to watch for now.

[Amy]

Incredible analysis, Afshin. I've wondered about SL playing the sides off against one another, If either side goes down, SL is toast. It may partially explain why Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karoubi & Mohammed Khatami have not been arrested. SL needs them.

Looking forward to reading today's other analyses, but will have to wait till later in the day.

re. building on yesterday's march, any thoughts or rumors of action on Eid ul-Fitr?

[Marjan]

Internet Traffic in Iran for 9/19/09, Current Index 60 (with 73 as average for Asia), with a Response Rate of 304ms. They seem to have Internet:
http://www.internettrafficreport.com/history/308.htm

[Doug]

There's one other player in the political maneuvering. He has returned to Iran from distant tea houses of the middle east. Though not always reliable, he seems worth considering. It is the somewhat obscure Mullah Nasrudin, sometimes wise, although he has never actually seen a soccer match.

Mullah Nasrudin has done a careful analysis and was able to find all the missing votes. He confided only in his wife and made no public announcement. We managed to record a private conversation between the Mullah and his wife. Ref: http://wp.me/soSaJ-t3turban A transcript follows:

( Mullah Nasrudin couldn't wait to tell his wife about his good luck at the Bazaar.)

"But you were gone a long time and you've brought nothing back," she said.

"I discovered a new game at the Bazaar called 'Three Turban Dinejad' "

"What happened," she said, "you have nothing.What's this game?"

Mullah Nasrudin said, "One guesses. There are three turbans. Under one is 40 million ballots."

"You saw this? How is it possible to fit 40 million ballots under one turban?"

"Well," said Nasrudin, "they've been shrunk into mica and quartz chips -- looks like sand."

"You have to guess under which turban is a pile of sand?" Nasrudin's wife said.

"Yes," said Mullah Nasrudin, "and I guessed correctly and won a prize."

Mullah Nasrudin's wife was excited, "What's the prize?"

"It's a camel," said Mullah Nasrudin.

The Mullah's wife was puzzled. "Where is it?"

Mullah Nasrudin said, "It's under my turban."

[Samuel]

“to expose in court atrocities which would have made the Shah look good”.

"made the Shah look good"???

This is the kind of insane, crazy, garbage quality comment that makes one wonder whether Karroubi is presently consuming copious quantities of Heroin. Honestly, I'll be the first to denounce crazy comments about Holocaust denial (from AN or anyone else) but Karroubi has actually won the prize.

[Afshin]

@Amy

I doubt much would happen. Perhaps some kids who's start some small protests on their own but I would not expect anything big as it is not managed bu the Opposition leaders same as Qods was.

Howevere there is a clear danger in it. A.N and the S.L do not really want any casualties at this moment and these sorta unplanned actions could lead to unplanned Basiji reaction and people could die. But I dont expect much to happen. It is the Guards turn to make a move, lets see what they do.

[Samuel]

Very interesting analysis by Afshin but I have a question regarding the Guards.

Is it just the leader Mohammad Ali Jafari that you refer to? is it an elite group of Generals around him? Who are they, what are their identities and backgrounds? If it is a collective leadership and not just a one man show (Jafari) then there are questions of intra-group interests and disputes.

I guess my point is that if we are talking about a Guard coup scenario we have to understand the personalities involved, we have to understand that most coups historically eventually focuses on one individual: Hafez al Assad in Syria, Pinochet in Chile, Franco in Spain, Suharto in Indonesia, Colonel Nasser in Egypt, Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq in Pakistan, Musharraf later in Pakistan.

Who is this strongman waiting in the wings ready to take charge in Iran?

Again history tells us that collective leadership in coups don't work. One man, a Nasser for example, assumes the mantle of power.

I myself do not believe that the Guards are working to sideline the SL and we should all note that the SL looked healthy during last week's Friday Prayers. http://www.shiatv.net/view_video.php?viewkey=ee6179bfc4bcb64bbbfb

[Peter]

While I generally disagree with Samuel philosophically regarding the reformists, I haven't really seen any evidence to back up a lot of the speculation I'm seeing regarding potential conflict between the SL and the Guards. So I tend to agree with him on this one given that I don't see any evidence of the current Guard leadership working against the SL. The Guards have the power that they do because the SL gave it to them despite Khomeini's injunction that they should stay out of politics. Khamenei did this so they would act just as they are doing now, as a bulwark of support against the reformists who he fears will end up turning Iran into a paradise for atheists, homosexuals, pornographers & zionists should they achieve sufficient power. (I'm not saying that's what would happen, only that I believe he thinks that will be the result.) Giving the Guards political power is thus seen as a lesser evil by him. Even if he does recognize the theoretical possibility of a threat from the Guard, it probably pales in comparison to the threat presented by the reformists in his eyes.

Now that said, just because I don't think the guard is a threat to the current SL at the moment doesn't mean I think it won't be a threat to the next SL. I see a showdown looming between the Ahmadi government and the Mesbah-Yazdi faction of extremist clerics which seem to think they're above the law on the one hand, and the principle-ists and the rest of Qom defending the law on the other after Khamenei passes away. The Pasdaran leadership may well stick their nose into the election within the Assembly of Experts in order to obtain the decision they desire and/or refuse to acknowledge a winner its leadership doesn't like and back a loser instead. Should they throw their support behind Mesbah-Yazdi as some now fear, then that may well spell the end of the republic in name as well as deed unless the people were to start rising up in significantly larger numbers then they are currently doing.

[Afshin]

@ Peter

Perhaps you are not paying enough attention, some examples;

1) S. Larrijani (The Guards fought against it, the Leader for it)
2) The Fight over Vice President
3) The Fight within the Intelligence ministery
4) A.N saying literally to the Majlis that the country os to be run by him, the cabinet and the Majlis and that the S.L should not be busy with the running of the country

Some things to be aware of;

A) Just because S.L allowed the Guards to come to power does not mean the dog is not grwoing out of control.

B) Same as the S.L allowed the Guards to grow, so is he prepring a balance of power. Allowing the Reformist just enough to be present, investing in conservatives such as the Larrijanis and hence forming a new force

Weather the S.L is ill or not the Guards need to win this battle BEFORE he passes away, Even if his health is good now he is a old man with many health issues. They dont have forever and if the S.L was to passaway Hashemi would as head of Assembly of Experts pose a serious threat to them.

[Peter]

@Afshin

I grant that Ahmadinejad is guilty of all those things, but I'm not yet convinced that Ahmadinejad=The Current Republican Guard Leadership. Certainly AN has no room for those who disagree with him like the Larijani brothers and rewards loyalty over competence. He's packing his cabinet and the Intel ministry with former Guard officers like himself with a mindset similar to his own, but that doesn't necessarily equate to the current Guard leadership being a weapon he can play against the SL. Furthermore on 4) above, the SL specifically told a resistant Majlis to let AN have his way on the cabinet nominees, saving AN from some serious humiliation.

I don't doubt that the SL is having second thoughts about his annointing of AN as God's choice. But the SL values both the appearance of unity and the reputation of the government above nearly everything else. If a few innocents have to be victimized a second time by a government silencing their pleas for justice then so be it. The crimes committed against them were unfortunate, but life is filled with imperfect choices and as supreme leader the well-being of the country as a whole (as he defines it) comes first. This is where he is getting into trouble with those Marjas who believe that in his attempts to cement Islam even more firmly into Iran's structure, the SL is destroying the very foundation of what he is fighting to save. And AN's continued abuses of the law are just making the SL look worse and worse.

I certainly agree that the "dog is growing out of control". When the SL passes away the RG will likely attempt to obtain veto power over his replacement at a minimum. For example, I doubt very heavily that the RG would accept Rafsanjani were he to be selected by the Assembly of Experts as the next SL.

Were the SL to die tomorrow I suspect we'd see a serious shift in the positions of many principle-ists who respect the reformists as fellow revolutionaries and a loyal opposition in an islamic republic but fear the dark path of total dictatorship down which the AN/Mesbah-Yazdi group would drag the country. It is only the SL that holds the conservatives together. Without him they'd fracture and Hashemi would likely come out on top unless the RG intervened. If the Guard intervenes Hashemi will need the support of the Greens to call up the masses so he cannot allow them to be knocked out as a political force.

[The villages will hear the gre]

[...] از ترس( دلقک بازی خیابانی )!‬‎ lol, just saw this on Enduring America: 0740 GMT: The Qods Day Football Match. Our quirkiest story of the day, complete with video, gets [...]

[Samuel]

New Public Opinion Poll in Iran shows Strong support for Iranian Govt. and Leaders.

http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/articles/brmiddleeastnafricara/639.php?nid=&id=&pnt=639&lb=

No this poll was not conducted by the Iranian govt. ("A project managed by the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland")

"On Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the survey finds that eight in 10 Iranians say they consider him to be the country's legitimate president."

[Samuel]

More on the survey:

WorldPublicOpinion.org (WPO) conducted the poll of 1,003 Iranians across Iran between Aug. 27 and Sept. 10, 2009. Interviewing was conducted by a professional survey organization located outside Iran which used native Farsi speakers who telephoned into Iran (8 in 10 Iranian households have a telephone line). The margin of error is 3.1 percent. WPO, a collaborative project involving research centers from around the world, is managed by the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland.

[Samuel]

More from the survey:

"Most Iranians express acceptance of the outcome of the Presidential election. Eighty-one percent say they consider Ahmadinejad to be Iran's legitimate president, and 62 percent say they have a lot of confidence in the declared election results, while 21 percent say they have some confidence. Just 13 percent say they do not have much confidence or no confidence in the results. In general, eight in 10 (81%) say they are satisfied with the process by which authorities are elected, but only half that number (40%) say they are very satisfied."

Mmmmm. 62 Percent sounds kind of familiar.

[Samuel]

More good stuff:

"Eight in 10 say Ahmadinejad is honest but slightly less than half - 48 percent -- say he is very honest. Asked about the institutions that make up the government of the Islamic republic, large majorities express at least some confidence in major institutions. The president is viewed most favorably, with 84 percent of respondents expressing a lot (64%) of or some (20%) confidence.

Overall most Iranians express support for their current system of government. Nine in ten say they are satisfied with Iran's system of government, though only 41 percent say they are very satisfied. Six in ten approve of the system by which a body of religious scholars has the capacity to overturn laws they deem contrary to the Koran, while one in four express opposition. A modest majority (55%) says that the way the Supreme Leader is selected is consistent with the principles of democracy, though three-fifths say they are comfortable with the extent of his power."

But, but, but, the govt. in Iran is made up of demons who roast young children alive every other wednesday. I know the websites run by Iranian Emigres tell me so. The Shah on the other hand was the most wonderful of leaders, a combination of the Dalai Lama, Mother Theresa, Ghandi, Churchill and Albert Einstein.

[Samuel]

Trying to find something negative about the govt. the authors say the following:

"The extremely high number of people refusing to answer questions about their voting preference--something not found in response to any other questions--suggests that people have some discomfort with this topic," says WPO's Kull. "Thus these findings on voting preference are not a solid basis for estimating the actual vote."

In other words the people may feel a bit intimidated. But of course the reformists always tell us how brave they an their supporters are.
Why if you belive them 90% of the population is on the rooftops every night. And I believe them, sure I do, I've seen it on You Tube. You tube clips don't distort, of course they don't.

And people in this survey did not seem to mind differing with the govt. when it came to relations with the U.S.:

"A new WorldPublicOpinion.org poll of Iranians finds that six in 10 favor restoration of diplomatic relations between their country and the United States, a stance that is directly at odds with the position the Iranian government has held for three decades. A similar number favor direct talks."

[Samuel]

So what have we learned? It seems that the bloody, demonic, tyrannical, cannibalistic, hitlerite govt. of Iran has once again distorted a western poll so that it reflects positively on them.

How evil are their magical powers, the same powers which resulted in a similar approval level for the govt. shown in the last official poll before the election. We all know in our brains, our hearts, our guts and points south of there that no more than 5% of the population (on a good day) support the blood stained, sadists who run the most evil regime on earth today or any other time in the history of mankind. The most evil regime ever to torment this planet (or any other planet) today or in the future.

Were it not for the SL, AN, the Mafia that runs Pasdaran, the Basij, and their relatives plus the other blind, ignorant, brainwashed 5% (make that 3%) of the population Iran would be a peaceful, sublime, exquisite, prosperous, enchanting paradise.

I urge everyone to follow my example and do the following:

Print the full report on recycled (if possible) paper and then run to your rooftop with friends and neighbors as soon as possible and set said report on fire as you shout insults at the dictator. (Note it is not advisable to consume alcohol or drugs while playing with fire and it is a good idea to have a fire extinguisher ready just in case)

[Ramadan not over yet? - Why We]

[...] declaration of the Supreme Leader that Sunday is the end of Ramadan holiday." continues here:http://enduringamerica.com/2009/09/1...er/#more-17654 Obviously, I am not used to the customs of the Islam (which made me wondering about the [...]

[Paleene]

LOL

Dear Samuel,

thank you very much for the good work. It meets the expectations - would we have learnt about the outcome of the survey if it wasn't in favour of the gov ???

And, working in the field of social science for quite a time , I would never ever trust the outcome of a survey, which doesn't give full information of how the data is generated. Eg. you say, 8 out of 10 Iranian households have a telefon. Alright.
*** But what was the calling time and whom could one expect to have answered the calls? ***

[Afshin]

@ Peter
"I’m not yet convinced that Ahmadinejad=The Current Republican Guard Leadership. But that doesn’t necessarily equate to the current Guard leadership being a weapon he can play against the SL. "

Think for your self can he stand infront of the S.L disobey him for more then a WEEK, during the last days OPENLY even !!!!!! and still get away with it. He ridiculed the S.L infront of a country and then eventually did not fire his Vice president and only had him resign himself. Then fired 2 of the S.L closest allies in a show of force. DO YOU FOR A SECOND BELIEVE IN A COUNTRY LIKE IRAN ONE CAN DO THAT AND GET AWAY WITHOUT THAT MUCH MUSCLE BEHIND HIM !!!!??? specially a unelected, unpopular president under that much pressure !!!!? dont be naive

---

@ Peter Wrote : Furthermore the SL specifically told a resistant Majlis to let AN have his way on the cabinet nominees, saving AN from some serious humiliation.

Think again, to save who's face? A.N or himself ? Infact When did my analyses on that I mentioned the S.L and A.N playing poker, outbluffing each other and I forecasted the S.L losing. A.N is a great poker player and knew there was no way in Hell S.L would allow new elections now. People would hit the street again knowing they had won even in bigger numbers. He could nbever allow new elections. A.N knew that and played that game so well. S.L had to do that. He would lose face after backing A.N so intensly and openly (over Hashemi for example).

---

Peter Wrote: I don’t doubt that the SL is having second thoughts about his annointing of AN as God’s choice.

Now you are confusing S.L with Mesbah Yazdi. He is nit Gods choice for the S.L and Its not a matter of Regret anymore, its a matter of survival.

---

@ Peter Wrote
But the SL values both the appearance of unity and the reputation of the government above nearly everything else.

Hence the Multi Million people protests, ALL THE MARJA against him, The Ols stablishment against him !!!?? A illegitimate Goverment !!! Now you are just not making sense !!!

----

Peter Wrote : I certainly agree that the “dog is growing out of control”......

During the last part, basically you are just agreeing with the fact that the Guards are infact preparing a coup which people like "Where is my vote" and I have been saying all along. The only thing you are saying is that they would do it after the S.L death. which again is one of the scenarios we have said many times before. The only addition to that is that the Guards just tolerate the S.L and do their thing. They openly disobey him allready.

PS. Hashemi is to smart to put his faith in the hands of justthe People.

A) he has the Marjas and the rest of the clerics
B) he is openly flirting with conservatives (both Larrijanis, and they belong to the fielth of the republis, such opputunists, with A.N atleast there is a ideology, how idiotic it is atleast one can respect that he fights for something, with larrijanis same as Karoubi told Ali, I hope you wont sell your self and your reliogion for a little more power like your brother)
C) he has guns, lots of guns. He is no idiot he knows you can fight bullits with just slogans

I advise you to read my analyses of the S.L arsenal of weapons and invite to tell me if I have missed any weapons or underestimate any, when you analyse things at a detailed level like that it becomes easier to understand, assume and even predict things.

[Afshin]

@ Samuel
PHONED INTO IRAN.... In a time of fear I doubt anyone dare say a word of being against A.N. So the results are not surprising at all.

You want solid proof I suggest you look at the pictures of the MULTI MILLION PEOPLE Marches. They dont lie... Just in Tehran half the city participated. nOW THATS solid proof....

If you disagree, ok. If you are pro A.N ok. If you condone Murder and rape in the name of religion and god. Ok. BUT Stay honest and realistic.

[Samuel]

Dear Paleene,

Here is the methodology:

METHODOLOGY
Overview
This study was designed, managed, and analyzed by WorldPublicOpinion.org, a project managed by the Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) at the University of Maryland. Staff from this organization have carried previous studies in Iran using face-to-face interviewing and have also conducted focus groups in Iran. This organization is responsible for all of the survey questions and the interpretation of the findings.

The survey was executed by means of computer-assisted-telephone interviewing by a professional research agency outside Iran. All interviewers were native Farsi speakers. Telephone interviewing and an outside agency were chosen for this study so that there would be no political constraints on questions asked or speculation about the influence of Iranian authorities on the data collection process. In the past, when we have examined clearly documented studies of the Iranian public, such as those by Terror-Free-Tomorrow and WorldPublicOpinion.org, we have found that telephone methods and face-to-face methods have produced very similar findings with comparable questions.

Telephone Sample
Interviewing was conducted August 27-September 10, 2009 among a national sample of 1,003 Iranian adults aged 18 and older. The margin of error for a sample of this size is no larger than +/- 3.1 percentage points.

The sample was stratified by Iranian provinces using area codes and telephone exchanges for landline telephones in Iran. Numbers were randomly selected and the last four digits of actual telephone numbers were randomly varied. Academic and commercial research organizations in Iran use very similar telephone methods for surveys. When a residence
was reached, an adult was selected randomly using the next birthday technique. An initial attempt and three callbacks were made in an effort to complete an interview. A total of 1,003 interviews were completed; the interview refusal rate was 52 percent.
The household penetration of telephone landlines in Iran is reported to be over 80 percent by Iran’s telecommunication company. WorldPublicOpinion.org conducted an in home survey with a national probability sample of Iranians in January-February, 2008 and found that 84 percent of Iranians reported having a landline telephone in their household.

All thirty Iranian provinces were represented in the completed sample in proportions similar to their actual populations, as were rural and urban areas and females and males. A post-weighting procedure was employed using gender, age, province, and urban-rural residence as factors. Demographic targets were based upon 2005 data from the Statistical Center of Iran. In general, the weighting effect was quite small; however, respondents 55 years and older had to be up-weighted and those 35-44 down-weighted somewhat.

[Samuel]

"PHONED INTO IRAN…. In a time of fear I doubt anyone dare say a word of being against A.N. So the results are not surprising at all."

Wait a second people are not afraid to march but they are afraid of a phone call?

"If you condone Murder and rape in the name of religion and god."

Again with this? I condone the right of the Revolution to defend itself against those (Khatami in his own words) trying to overthrow it.. No govt. is suicidal. On June 20th you stay home and you can have all the sweet tea and pastries in the world followed by a nice long nap. No one will bother even one hair on your head.

[Afshin]

@ Samuel

YES when they call u at home then they know where u live, who you are.

Oh ok I get it now.. if you do as you are told or jus mind your own business we wont kill u, but if u speak ur mind and on june 20 do go to the street and say where is my vote then we are obliged to rape and kill you.

Now what a fine muslim you are...

SO YES AGAIN WITH THAT... I know you dont like that part because you do in your heart know its wrong and feel ashamed for it, you are to smart to belive that is right and just so you rather just not think about it, hear it or in any way be refrenced to it.... Wake up man it really happened, people said where is my vote and they got raped and killed fot it, while khatami is still free and walking in Qods day...

[Paleene]

Dear Samuel,

again, many thanks for your contribution.

Could you possibly provide any URL to the study? Love to check the full account.