The Latest from Iran (29 October): Ahmadinejad Tries to Claim Legitimacy

NEW Iran: The Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting
Iran: The Supreme Leader’s Threat — Strength or Weakness?
Video: The Announcements for the 13 Aban Marches
Iran: Towards 13 Aban — The University Protests
Latest Iran Video: Families of Detainees Protest (28 October)
Iran: Are There Billions of Dollars Missing?
The Latest from Iran (28 October): The Supreme Leader Jumps In

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1940 GMT: Mondo Bizarro Analogy of the Day. A superficial Daily Telegraph report, "Iran accused of playing games on nuclear deal", is redeemed by this quote from "one diplomati close to the talks": "It's like playing chess with a monkey. You get them to checkmate, and then they swallow the king."

1920 GMT: Throughout yesterday and today (1210 GMT) we have been noting the significance of a meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi. We have posted an English translation, courtesy of Khordaad 88, of the account of the discussion from Mousavi's Kalemeh.

1645 GMT: Defiance of the Day. Mowj-e-Sabz features the story of a mathematics student at Sharif University who challenged the Supreme Leader on Wednesday with a series of points about politics, media, and the Iranian leadership.

1505 GMT: Iran has formally submitted its response to the International Atomic Energy. As expected, Tehran has accepted the "framework" of third-party enrichment but wants further discussions on details, such as the timing and amount of uranum stock to be sent to Russia for enrichment.

The IAEA press release says merely, "The Director General is engaged in consultations with the government of Iran as well as all relevant parties, with the hope that agreement on his proposal can be reached soon."



1210 GMT: Now to Make Your Head Spin. In the current context of Ahmadinejad's move, this quote from Mir Hossein Mousavi in his latest talk with Mehdi Karroubi takes on significance: "The discussions in Geneva were really surprising and if the promises given (to the West) are realised, then the hard work of thousands of scientists would be ruined. And if we cannot keep our promises then it would prepare the ground for harder sanctions against the country."

Got it? Mousavi is against the third-party enrichment deal, trying to outbid Ahmadinejad as the defender of Iran's interests and sovereignty.

1200 GMT: Spinning Ahmadinejad Out of Control. The "Western" misunderstanding of the President's manoeuvre, not seeing the internal dimension in Ahmadinejad's quest for legitimacy through the nuclear talks, is escalating. CNN reproduces some of the quotes we have highlighted but reduces them to a "rare conciliatory note" struck by Ahmadinejad.

1110 GMT: Another note on the Ahmadinejad Nuclear Play (0850 and 1040 GMT). It is also significant that the Iranian President emphasised responsibility for past contracts in his talk today, calling on other countries to "fulfill their previous obligations"

We have nuclear contracts. It has been 30 years. We have paid for them…such agreements must be fulfilled … for technical activities, for reactors and power plants. If we intend to cooperate, such contracts must be addressed and the previous commitments must be fulfilled.

As an EA reader shrewdly noted during the Vienna talks, when Iran tried to sideline France from any agreement, Tehran is determined to get either finanical or political advantage out of pre-1979 payments to Western countries for nuclear reactors that were never completed.

1105 GMT: An EA source claims that Iran's judiciary officials are refusing to allow the lawyer of Iranian-American scholar Kian Tajbakhsh to file an appeal against his 15-year prison sentence.

1040 GMT: Western media are buzzing about President Ahmadinejad's statement on the nuclear talks (see 0850 GMT), to the point of mis-reading it.

The Los Angeles Times has a lengthy snap analysis which declares, "Iran's president appears to back nuclear proposal". That's not quite right. Ahmadinejad did not refer to the specific deal on third-party enrichment which Iran is still considering (its reply is supposed to be presented by its Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency today). Instead he declared:

In the past ["the West"] said that we had to halt our nuclear activities. But today they say, 'Come consult about finding solutions for world problems,' and they want to cooperate for the exchange of fuel and development of nuclear technology and establishing a nuclear plant.

That is not an endorsement of a specific agreement but of the general process, and it is an endorsement based on the political advantage for the President rather than any benefit to Iran's nuclear position.

In other words, as we predicted and then debated in early October, Ahmadinejad is trying to use the Geneva and Vienna talks to establish an internal legitimacy that has been in question since 12 June. Whether that effort, which is largely going unnoticed by "Western" media succeeds, will be highlighted by the events up to and including the 13 Aban demonstrations.

0925 GMT: Human Rights Activists in Iran has issued its latest update on the status of post-election detainees, including the hunger strikes of Fariba Pajooh and Hengameh Shahidi.

0850 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Nuclear Play. The Iranian President has asserted, in a televised speech from Mashaad, that Iran will not retreat "one iota" on its nuclear rights, but it is ready to cooperate on uranium enrichment and nuclear technology. The proposed deal for third-party enrichment for Tehran's medical research reactor is Iran's opportunity to evaluate the "honesty" of world powers and the International Atomic Energy Agency.

The President's trip to Mashaad, which is to be the first in a series of visits around Iran, and Iranian press --- as opposed to colleagues in the "West" --- are noting his general references to various issues in housing, industry, agriculture, water and natural resources, and urban planning. However, I'll repeat: Ahmadinejad is clearly using the nuclear figure to strike the pose of confident leader defending Iran. However, focusing on the international front is risky, given the bubbling internal situation leading up to 13 Aban (4 November).

0830 GMT: Ayatollah Khamenei is not the only political figure making a headline statement. The reformist politician and cleric Abdollah Nouri, in an interview with Advar News (summary via Pedestrian), declared that the post-election detentions were a signs of the regime's "hopelessness":

Each of these prisoners is connected to a bigger network. And their family, their friends, the country, we all feel close to them. The establishment has kept them in prison, to keep this protest against the establishment alive? What kind of strategy is that? I am guessing that certain analysis are offered to the lord of the establishment, which predicts that if the prisoners are freed, the establishment’s problems will grow. This is an analysis made out of hopelessness and must not be the basis for decision making.

But Nouri's attack went much farther:

They consider the parts of the constitution which stresses the rights of the people to be worthless trash and other parts as a holy book. When people act on their legal rights, they consider it an act against national security and a step towards overthrowing the system. So who is not acting according to the constitution, the protesters or the establishment?

0815 GMT: The Supreme Leader also made a public statement in his meeting with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday, focusing in this case on Iran's regional position: "The Western prescription for solving problems in the [Middle East] is not justice-based and efficient and cannot solve the region's issues, including the issues of Palestine, Iraq and Afghanistan."

Khamenei praised Erdogan's policies, declaring, "Your stance in supporting the Palestinian people was rational and a right move in line with Islam. Adopting such stances will strengthen Turkey's position in the Muslim world."

0720 GMT: We begin today with an analysis of the Supreme Leader's threat to the opposition, handed down in a statement on Wednesday, which may surprise some readers.

Far from seeing it as a move of strength to break up the movement before 13 Aban (4 November), I am reading it as a speech coming out of regime uncertainty and worry over recent signs of protest, both from leaders and from the general public.

Meanwhile, the Government has flexed its muscles, albeit against another "foreign agent" with no connection to the Green movement. Hossein Rassam, an Iranian employee of the British employee, has been sentenced to four years in prison. Rassam was arrested soon after the 12 June election and paraded in the Tehran trials --- like Kian Tajbakhsh, the Iranian-American scholar recently given a 15-year jail term --- as a prime example of the "velvet revolution".

On the international front, a International Atomic Energy Agency team has returned from its three-day inspection of the second uranium enrichment plant at Fordoo near Qom. The head of the team called it a "good trip". Data from the plant will now be analysed and summarised in a report for the IAEA's Governing Board.

Israel and Syria: Can Turkey Be a Mediator?

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On earlier Wednesday, during a meeting with Croatian President Stipe Mesic, Syrian president Bashar Assad called on European Union countries to facilitate peace talks with Israel through Turkey's mediation:

As far as it concerns us in Syria, we have national support to continue talks with Israel. We call on European countries to also give their contribution, to help Turkey [and] also us to be able to resume from where we have stopped.

With Israeli-Turkish relations have been damaged following the Davos crisis in January, Israeli leaders reiterated that they are not seeking Turkey's mediation role yet are willing to discuss peace with Syria as long as there is no pre-conditions.

Meanwhile, Turkish-Syrian relations are strengthening. Both countries held a military drill in April. Syrian Defense Minister Ali Habib Mahmud said on 14 October that his country is to stage a second round of joint military exercises with Turkey. Turkey and Syria also signed political and economic agreements in September. Mutual visa requirements and taxes on trailer trucks operating between the two countries were lifted and "a strategic cooperation assembly" was established.

Finally, it seems that Ankara has got what it desired from Damascus: insistence on Turkey's mediation in the peace process. On 20 October 20, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan reportedly stressed that Syria would accept only their country as a mediator in peace talks with Israel.

On Wednesday, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak stated that Syria is pivotal in the path toward regional peace. Without mentioning Turkey, he said, "Peace with Syria is a major building block of any stable regional agreement. Israel has sought in the past, and will continue to seek ways to promote peace with Syria." However, he also put Tel Aviv's conditions: "Responsible behavior on behalf of the Syrians, as well as Hezbollah, is required in order to prevent the dangers of conflict in the region."

So the Israel-Syria talks won't be occurring soon. Will that matter for Turkey? Possibly not in the short-term: it is more than satisfied with how delays as well as progress strengthen its role as a participant in regional politics.

Iran: The Supreme Leader's Threat --- Strength or Weakness?

Iran: Towards 13 Aban — The University Protests
The Latest from Iran (29 October): Opposition Momentum?
The Latest from Iran (28 October): The Supreme Leader Jumps In

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I had just returned from a 2 1/2-hour roundtable on "Obama: The First 300 Days" when I read of Ayatollah Khamenei's Wednesday statement, via an activist on Twitter:

"Questioning the principles of the election is the biggest crime....The very next day after election without any proof or evidence some PPL called the election a lie....The enemy exploited this & those who from the beginning were not supporters of the state joined them....Within the first hours I sent a private message telling them what they R starting will be used by enemy....I told them what they are doing will be exploited by the enemy & this is exactly what has happened."

Getting the news via 140-character bursts heightens the impact, yet as I found the articles, inside and outside Iran, narrating the Supreme Leader's message, the initial reaction did not fade even as it evolved. Evolved from surprise to concern and then hope.

Surprise because I had not expected such a direct assault on the opposition leaders. This is the most pointed warning that the Supreme Leader has put out since his Friday Prayer address a week after the election. Since then, he has spoken more generally about the "foreign threat", letting others shake the fist against internal challengers.

And Khamenei's timing is intriguing. Why raise the stakes so publicly a week before the demonstrations on 13 Aban? Why not let the protest play out, expecting that, for all the efforts of the Green wave, the regime's restrictions on movement and communications would keep mass gatherings (or at least news of those gathering) below the numbers on 15 and 20 June? Of course, a threat may be intended to back down movement leaders keep people off the streets, but it can also have the opposite effect.

The concern is that the Supreme Leader's message is not rhetoric but the portent of action. It is more than the threat that "something will be done" if the protests materialise on 13 Aban; it is a signal that in the next six days moves will be taken to break up opposition.

Some Iranian activists are going even farther, claiming that the Supreme Leader is also intervening against the compromise of the National Unity Plan. The speculation is that Khamenei has decided there will be no reforms in the system; instead, former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, one of the architects of that Plan, has gotten the message and warned the opposition that the hammer blow is imminent.

Perhaps. But that is not my reading of the situation. Indeed, after the shock of those initial Twitter flashes had eased, I found concern giving way to an optimism. The Supreme Leader's message is not one coming out of the decision for a coordinating response to knock down the opposition before it can mobilise; it is one forced by the fragmentation and uncertainty within the regime.

First, a personal belief. It is no more than a belief because I cannot verify this assertion, but the more I look at Iranian decision-making over the last month, the more I suspect that the Supreme Leader has been quite ill. The twists and turns of the Iranian tactics in the nuclear talks; the muddled responses to the Sistan-Baluchestan bombings (remember, Khamenei did not issue a statement until days later, after the over-the-top reactions of the Revolutionary Guard and the more measured deliberation of the Ahmadinejad Cabinet); the lack of any evidence that there has been a critique of and response to the National Unity Plan, supposedly sent to the Supreme Leader weeks ago.

If (and I know it's a big if) that is true, this is not just a question of Ayatollah Khamenei reasserting the authority of the regime. It is an issue of reasserting his personal authority, showing strength not only to opponents but to allies.

Yet I return to the point that this was not just a general declaration of Khamenei's firm hand and mind, it was a specific challenge. And it is a challenge issued not after a period of relative calm in the political situation, but after days of resurgent opposition --- the Karroubi statements, the Media Fair episodes, the Mousavi-Karroubi meetings, the signals from senior clerics the university protests.

This, in short, was not a statement which had long been planned by the Supreme Leader to top off the political reality: I'm Back, All is Well. This was a speech which was quickly prepared because the regime is shaken.

Shaken does not mean crumbling. But I think the greater concern this morning is not with the Green movement but with Ayatollah Khamenei. Far from shutting down the movement on 13 Aban, the Supreme Leader may have just indicated that this movement is very, very alive.

It is six days to the demonstrations of 4 November.

The Iran-Turkey-Israel Triangle: Erdogan in Tehran

The Latest from Iran (28 October): No Lull

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On Tuesday, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad signed economic agreements and discussed regional politics.

Ahmadinejad praised Erdogan's stance against Israel, describing the country as a "threat to all nations":

When an illicit regime possesses nuclear arms, one cannot talk about depriving other nations of a peaceful nuclear program. Your clear stance toward the Zionist regime had a positive effect in the world, especially the Islamic world, and I am sure that everyone was satisfied.

The more regional countries expand their ties and get closer to each other, the more they can remove their problems and limit the ill-wishers that have plots against them.

Iran-Turkey cooperation would benefit both countries, the region and the whole Islamic world.

Ahmadinejad also praised Erdogan's stance on Tehran's nuclear programme, after the Turkish Prime Minister told The Guardian that "Iranians are working on nuclear power for the purposes of energy only".

Under the Iran-Turkey economic agreement, both countries commit themselves to trade through their own currencies instead of the dollar or euro. Turkey has signed similar accords with Russia and China.

Israel's Diplomatic Albatross? Avigdor Lieberman

Israel-Palestine: Clinton Tries to Help Abbas
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This week the meeting of foreign ministers of Mediterranean Union countries was postponed by France after efforts to bring Egypt to the table failed. Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit had stated that he would not attend if Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman was present. France is considering an invitation to prime ministers to rescue the summit.

Lieberman's effect is being felt elsewhere, however. In an interview given to The Guardian, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that Lieberman had threatened the region with the use of nuclear weapons in Gaza during the Operation Cast Lead. In contrast Erdogan, who will visit Tehran next week, said Iran is not pursuing nuclear weapons and "is Turkey's friend."