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Entries in National Unity Plan (12)

Monday
Oct192009

Latest Iran Video and Full English Text: Mousavi's First Post-Election Webcast (18 October)

Iran Snap Analysis: Mousavi’s Webcast Takes “National Unity” Beyond Politics
The Latest from Iran (19 October): Beyond Bombings, The Pressure on the Government
The Latest from Iran (18 October): Today’s Bombings

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UPDATE 1330 GMT: We have posted a snap analysis of the Webcast and Mousavi's political strategy.

An English-language translation, adapted from the Facebook site associated with Mir Hossein Mousavi, follows the video:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=miU0q1qLQVw[/youtube]

Explaining the “National Unity” plan

This phrase has been used in media in different ways and it is good to separate them from each other. In the meeting that I had with the members of the minority reformist faction of the parliament, I discussed the issue of “National Unity”. In that discussion my intention to use this phrase was in the sense of a public will that has been strengthened during the election campaign, based on our heritage,  civilization, common national interests, and the message of a better future, prosperity, and progress of our country. The issue of “National Unity” was important in that regards, and we all witnessed the enthusiasm that had been created in the country regarding this issue.

I believe that even after the post-election events, this asset should be preserved and we should try to strengthen it. National Unity is extremely important to all of us and we all must focus on it. In this case the interpretation of Unity is the unity among all people of all classes and unity between intellectuals, students, different ethnic and cultural groups.

During the election campaign the human chain that connected North of Tehran to South of Tehran was one of the best aspects of National Unity among all classes of people who had participated in that event, and this has created a wave all over the country, and with this picture the idea of “Green Path of Hope” was shaped.

However, besides this case “National Unity” has been used with different meanings. After the recent events that happened in the country, which we all are very well aware, a number of individuals with different intentions and some with good intentions have been trying to find a way to lower the tension between the political figures by dialogue and discussions. There is a proposal by Ayatollah Hashemi-Rafsanjani, also Ayatollah Mahdavi-Kani has ideas about this issue, and generally different individuals have been commenting regarding this. What is important is that I have not commented on this issue yet.

However, considering the rumors that are spreading regarding the discussions in this matter, I have a memory from Imam [Khomeini]. During the McFarlane story [Iran-Contra affair of the 1980s], which caused a crisis, people did not know if [then US National Security Advisor Robert] McFarlane had come to Iran, whether he had come to Iran secretly and had returned [to the US]. This issue was first reported by a Syrian newspaper, and in the debate among the heads of the three branches of the government, it had been mentioned given the sensitivity about the issue of relations to the US and talking with the US, it would have been apparent that it could have caused a crisis in the country.

So the heads of the three branches of the government and I went to Imam [Khomeini] and asked for his advice. When the case was explained to Imam Khomeini --- with what group this person [Macfarlane] had come and left, what was the outcome of his trip, and the fact that this case had been reported by a Lebanese or Syrian newspaper and would have been known inside the country as well --- the Imam said, “Go and let the people know about this issue, people should be informed” and also discussed this issue a bit. When we were leaving, Imam Khomeini added a sentence that I have always remembered in my mind as a golden and important sentence. He said, “Never act in such a way that you won’t be able to explain it to people,” and I have always remembered this.

Therefore, if there is going to be any talk, discussion, debate,  or issue, naturally as a companion of this great movement, I will share it with the people, and it won’t be such that I cannot defend it. It would be wise that regarding this matter or similar cases, given the incompetence of the domestic media and the fact that they are working against the Green Path of Hope, and that we don’t have a conventional media and all of our media have been restricted, people should be vigilant on which media is spreading these news by considering their direction and their party affiliation and their possible intensions. This can help us to move in a thoughtful atmosphere that is according to our own values.

Explaining whether you have been contacted or visited regarding this issue

No, there have been no such discussions. However, I am aware of Ayatollah Hashemi-Rafsanajani’s proposal that he had mentioned during the Friday Prayers as well as the suggestions that some of the members of the Expediency Council shared with him. Also through the media, I am aware of the remarks that are claimed to be made by Ayatollah Mahdavi-Kani and others. Also I sometimes have witnessed that others with good intentions have raised such issues, but there has been no direct contact with me regarding this and there has been no correspondence and no official talks. In general nothing has been done regarding this issue.

In the 13th statement you have mentioned that we must embed our socio-political achievements into our lives and into our struggle. You had a sentence: “we must live the green path of hope.” Although this is very elegant phrase, it may come across as ambiguous in some case, can you elaborate on that?

Our nation has started a massive movement and we are involved in it too. Hopefully [if God is willing] I will continue toward this very direction that people are marching on. If we look carefully, early on when these incidents happened in the country, there were discussion on how to move, and what should our response be so that we can benefit from big achievements of the elections and the Islamic Revolution and continue them. There were discussions on creation of parties or fronts or other groups, all within the frameworks of political campaigns inside the country or as they are defined internationally. We thought that none of these can fulfill our goals and purposes. We saw that none of these constructs were coherent with the experiences that we had prior to the election, and of course the [same] experiences that we had together.

In this election, we saw that families, political, religious, artistic, cultural groups, and in general anyone anywhere according to their own methodology and capability helped out and entered the movement. In fact this was a continuation of our discussions earlier that every citizen would "stand as a campaign headquarters". An action like that led to a national network. Actually, it was this very phenomenon that was the source of strength for this movement.

The movement did not get its power from a political party. This does not mean that parties were not influential, or will not have an affect. No. Parties would always maintain their own standing, and their position is of key importance and will remain a necessity. They must continue with their own activities. However, we thought to continue on this path, to achieve our goals and ideals under the banner of “advance Iran”, and to fulfill people’s demands, achieving the full realization of people’s rights, we must continue on under something much more inclusive and encompassing [from a single party], especially with the knowledge from the experiences [of unity] prior to the elections. And we did continue in such a manner and we announced it too.

In such a perspective, it is unimportant how much every person can contribute, or how they contribute. The important thing is that there will be a national will that would remain. From only one person in one family to large parties and political groups and fronts with experience, everyone would be able to send help to this massive movement in the framework of their own daily activities. I have always believed that a even a blind person, an old woman, old man, or someone who cannot possibly attend any of political activities, if from the corner of their own homes they send a prayer, we can consider it as an activity inside this network, let alone all the organized activism of large political groups.

Today we stand witness to a unique and exeptional blooming of creativity among our artistic groups. None of these belong to a movement of a party. Instead they belong to a large social network. We have numerous clips, and anthems were created, not to mention countless paintings, drawings and cartoons. The extent of the flow of this creativity is not comparable to any period of our history. These are the bulk and the essence of the movement. These are what create the content of dialogues of this huge wave and this massive movement. They guide it and push it forward. This does not happen in a framework of party or any one political front. At times, two or three artists come together, or in larger or smaller groups, on corners of our country and even outside of our country, they have come together to send their help. There are joined by religious groups, religious gatherings, charity organizations and other political groups.

In fact here, the struggle has become a way of life, a life that continues and is unstoppable. It is not the case that you can constrain it at a point. As a result this movement is a movement that cannot be harmed. In an environment of collective dialogue and discussion these movements would be ever more encouraged and push themselves forward. In this regards, the media are of key importance. The labor that people pull in our media is honorable and much appreciated. Here, I emphasize yet again that considering that we do not have any media at all, we must pay more attention to such means and tools [of communication], and benefit more from them. This is a miracle that we have seen during and after the elections, and considering our current situation we must take advantage of such tools. Naturally, we are connecting the individual and the social environments through the media and all the while we are creating a enormous movement with large span, and a long range.

The fact is that this movement does not belong to any one small group, party or political current, neither does it follow a specific detail oriented struggle nor is it a fully oppositional movement. This movement is one that is a current that is blended into dreams, ideals, and style of lives of our own people. That is why it is very sustainable.

We want to get our inspiration from readings of the Qu'ran that say: “Make your own homes a Kaaba”. [All Muslims around the world face the Kaaba during prayers, no matter where they are.] It must be that, in referring to this expansive social network, in their own large and small groups, each person contribute his/her own share to the movement, so that the movement can maintain shape and continue.

How can we find a solution to the crisis?

Until we accept that we have a problem and are in a crisis, until the larger group of majority of people is labeled as disturbance, until people are not counted in the equations [of power] and until the rights of people to determine their own destinies is not accepted, we can not find a universal solution to our problem.

For this reason our national unity, as I referred to it in the second meaning that I introduced earlier, contains the activities of the groups and crowds of people. Since these gatherings are with good intentions, I think it is necessary that in every movement people be respected, that the majority is not alienated. People are together, even those of them who have different views. It is we who analyze them and impose the differences, and unfortunately we separate the people from one another. The maxim here is that people should be respected. Their perspectives and ideas should be accepted. We must return to these fundamental rules. We must rely on the fundamental that we must return to the constitution and we must insist on the fundamental principle, "Governance of people over their own destinies." Only then we can easily find a solution to this problem.
Sunday
Oct182009

Iran Newsflash: National Unity Plan Submitted to Supreme Leader

NEW Iran: Khamenei, Bahari, Hajjarian, and the “Semi-Normal”
The Latest from Iran (18 October): Today’s Bombings

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IRAN GREENAccording to Habibollah Asgharowladi, the head of "traditional" right-wingers inside the Iranian Parliament, the National Unity Plan, "devised by some members of the Expediency Council", has been submitted to the Supreme Leader. He said all are waiting for Ayatollah Khamenei's critiques.

Details of the Plan will not be revealed at the present time because, as Asgharowladi puts it, "the enemy [Editor's Note: Who is the enemy?], who has superior listening capabilities, might be able to get hold of it soon" and possibly derail it.
Wednesday
Oct072009

The Latest from Iran (7 October): Drama in Parliament?

UPDATED Iran: Rafsanjani Makes A Public Move with "Friendship Principles"
UPDATED Iran: How a Non-Story about a Non-Jew Became Media Non-Sense
Video: 4 Clips from Tehran Azad University Protests (6 October)
The Latest from Iran (6 October): Loud Noises, Quiet Manoeuvres

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MAJLIS2130 GMT: A very depressing end to the day. The Committee on Human Rights Reporters has announced that Mohammad Reza Ali Zamani, a member of the The Association of Monarchists, is
to be executed by hanging for taking part in the demonstrations following the June elections. Zamani, who had no access to independent legal representation, was transferred on Monday from Section 29 of Evin Prison to Branch 15 of the Revolutionary Courts and his sentence was handed down by Judge Salavati.

To our knowledge, this is the first death sentence for a partipicant in post-election protest.

(http://chrr.us/spip.php?article6138)

1800 GMT: Disturbing article in Payvand that 10 of the 21 members of the "press court jury" have been replaced in elections. Out go Fatemeh Karoubi, wife of Etemade Melli party head Mehdi Karoubi, Masih Mohajeri, editor-in-chief of Jomhouri Eslami newspaper, and cleric Mohsen Doagu, all of whom have been critical of the Ahmadinejad administration. The news accompanies the closure of three more newspapers since Sunday.

1715 GMT: Report that 12 members of the Iran Teachers Union who were arrested on Tuesday (the day after World Teachers Day) have been released from detention.

1530 GMT: Let's Keep It Global, OK? Sure looks like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad wants to talk about matters other than domestic trifles. He appeared on Iran state television after a Cabinet meeting to confirm Tehran's willingness to consider "third-party enrichment" of its uranium, adding:
I think these negotiations were a step forward and I hope we proceed with the same trend so we will have constructive cooperation to resolve all outstanding global issues....In these negotiations we witnessed better behaviour than in the past from some countries and we noticed that the logic of respect and justice is being established gradually. These talks are good basis for continuation of the negotiations.

1319 GMT: Prompted by readers, we're investigating the story that the Obama Administration has cut funding to four Iran-centred human rights organisations. The only article so far, in Boston.com, considers the Iran Human Rights Documentation Center. The three other groups are not identified.

1315 GMT: Fereshteh Ghazi ("Iranbaan") has updated on the condition of a number of detainees, including the two of 18 students who were not released after University protests last week.

1105 GMT: And Now A Distraction. Press TV summarises the Supreme Leader's public address in the northern city of Chalous:
The enemy started to throw mud and spread rumors in order to undermine and downplay this big political victory....The enemy caused unrest in a part of the country. We see that it is worried about the 85 percent participation of the Iranian nation in the presidential election....Iran's foes are angry with progress and development of the nation.

And so on and so on....

0915 GMT: OK, So We Did Talk. Aladdin Boroujerdi, the Head of Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, has messed up the Government's "Maybe We Did, Maybe We Didn't" strategy by confirming that Iranian and American delegates did have bilateral discussions at the Geneva meeting on Iran's nuclear programme. Saeed Jalili, the lead Iranian negotiator, had denied that any 1-on-1 conversation took place.

0820 GMT: One source for the claim that Saeed Mortazavi is on the firing line for the Parliamentary report on post-election abuses (see 0740 GMT) is member of Parliament Ali Reza Zakani, who claims that documents will soon be produced for judicial authorities establishing Mortazavi's guilt.

0810 GMT: Ayatollah Dastgheib has written another letter criticising the handling of the post-election crisis, alleging that "military men" are the cause of "vices" in Iran.

0755 GMT: Is This A Confession of Fraud or An Attack on Larijani? In an interview, conservative member of Parliament Javad Karimi Ghadousi claims that Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani wants a National Unity Government so that he can replace Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as President. Ghadousi criticises Larijani for investigations of post election events, such as the raids on Tehran University dormitories and the abuses at Kahrizak Prison, "in defiance" of the Supreme Leader's statement that these were "side issues".

This, however, is the headline assertion: Larijani called Mir Hossein Mousavi on the night of the Presidential election to congratulate him on victory, and Deputy Speaker Mohammad Reza Bahonar wrote a letter to Ayatollah Khamenei that the regime has to accept and prepare for Mousavi as President.

0745 GMT: Back in Action (with a Great Headline). It looks like Mehdi Karroubi's Web presence has returned, with the repackaging of Tagheer on a different URL. It criticises proposed First Vice President Rahimi (see yesterday and 0530 GMT) with one of the best lines in the post-election crisis: "Fake Correspondence of Fake Minister in Fraudulent Government".

0740 GMT: News is coming out of the Iranian Parliament that while parts of the report on post-election abuses are classified, it does criticise --- as rumoured --- former Tehran Prosecutor General (now Iran Deputy Prosecutor General) Saeed Mortazavi and Tehran police chief Ahmad Reza Radan.

0550 GMT: Nothing to See Here. Not a word on Press TV's website about the internal political dynamics. Instead it goes for Iran in the World, with "the [Supreme] Leader...has said Iran's military advances are no a threat to any nation but instead are helping them progress 'without dependence' on the US."

Nothing in Fars News' headlines either; however, the Islamic Republic News Agency does feature a critique of "the archaeology of Hashemi Rafsanjani's National Unity Plan". The analyst, Mohammad Sajjad Nosrati, begins with an invocation of "the discourse of [French philosopher/sociologist] Michel Foucault" (somehow I can't see the same approach being applied to Barack Obama's health care plan in the US) before asserting that the Plan was put forth a few months before the Presidential election.

0530 GMT: After days of fencing and manoeuvring for position, we may see some interesting developments inside and around the Majlis today, as a Parliamentary committee is scheduled to present its report on post-election abuses.

Tensions between the President and conservative/principlist groups have been re-emerging, with hints that condemnation of episodes such as the crimes in Kahrizak Prison may have to name some names, pressing the Ahmadinejad Government to take the reprimand and offer up a scapegoat. That has been accompanied by a renewal of discontent over the President's choice of allies and cronies, with whispers becoming public grumbles about selections such as the First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi. And one should not overlook that the headline, "Supreme Leader Reshuffles Top Positions" at the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps and Basiji headquarters, sits on top of a continuing battle between the President and others to control the Ministry of Intelligence.

Still, the key word in the opening sentence above is "may". The Parliamentary report has already been delayed, and conservative/principlist critics may decide once again to put aside their differences with Ahmadinejad. For what we have yet to see in this crisis is a conservative/principlist decision to set aside their basic opposition to "reformists", allying with them at least temporarily to force changes from Ahmadinejad and the security forces.

And that in turn takes us to the heart of the confusion and tension over the "National Unity Plans", whether that is one Plan, two rival Plans, or even more. With a lot of attention on Hashemi Rafsanjani, the question has not been answered: is there any plan which has finally brought agreement between conservative/principlist groups and reformists to work together in a committee to bring signficant changes?
Tuesday
Oct062009

The Latest from Iran (6 October): Loud Noises, Quiet Manoeuvres

NEW Video: 4 Clips from Tehran Azad University Protests (6 October)
NEW Iran: Talks and Legitimacy - Takeyh and Marandi on CNN
The Latest from Iran (5 October): The Difficulty of Signals

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IRAN GREEN1940 GMT: Isn't It Ironic, Don't You Think? The Iranian Government has celebrated Teachers Day by arresting 12 teachers. (To clarify, in light of comments below, World Teachers Day is 5 October. Iran's Teachers Day is 2 May.)

1745 GMT: Rumours and Audits. Tomorrow could be a very interesting day in the Iranian Parliament. The hot whisper is that former Tehran Prosecutor General and now Iran Deputy Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi could be set up as the "fall guy" for abuses mentioned in a Parliamentary report.

More substantial --- at this point --- is another criticism of President Ahmadinejad, this time over Government expenditure. The National Audit Report to the Parliament claims mismanagement, embezzlement, and fraud and accuses the Government of 2005-2009 of harming the nation.

1725 GMT: The release of the editor-in-chief of Etemade Melli, Mohammad Ghoochani, has been delayed.

1635 GMT: Another Player on the Pitch. OK, the reformists are in play with their meeting with senior clerics (1555 GMT). Rafsanjani's gone public with his meeting with clerics (1608 GMT). And now Alireza Beheshti, Mir Hossein Mousavi's chief advisor, re-enters after his recent detention. He has written an open letter of scathing criticism of the Revolutionary Guard and its commander, Mohammad Ali Jafari.

1618 GMT: Larijani Win, Ahmadinejad Defeat? Mik Verbrugge adds vital information on Ali Larijani's re-election as head of the Principlist group in Parliament (1605 GMT). Despite days of reports that pro-Ahmadinejad MPs would try to unseat Larijani, their candidate received only seven votes.

1615 GMT: More Student Protests. Reports and videos are coming in of demonstrations at Shiraz/Sadra University and Azad University in Tehran.

1608 GMT: Another Rafsanjani Message? As some senior clerics meet reformist politicians (1555 GMT), others have met Hashemi Rafsanjani to express grave concern over the national crisis and ask Rafsanjani to take all steps towards resolution. Rafsanjani reportedly answered, "In order to exit this crisis, we need 2 identify the 'true culprits' of divisions and provocations and confront them decisively." He further explained that such culprits were those "who accuse, slander, float rumours, and those in the media who help them".

1605 GMT: Ali Larijani has been re-elected leader of the Principlist group in Parliament with 24 of 32 central committee votes.

1555 GMT: Now It Gets Interesting. Members of the Parliamentary reformist minority, the Imam Khomeini Line, will consult with marjas (senior clerics), including Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastgheib. The news comes 24 hours before a Parliamentary committee is due to report on its enquiry into alleged abuses of post-election detainees.

1545 GMT: No Sympathy Allowed. Back from academic seminars to find a rush of developments. Yet another sign that the ruling authorities are feeling some pressure. The Vice Governor of Tehran has ordered City Council members to refrain from meeting freed detainees and families.

1210 GMT: I Love You (Spell It with Tractors). Mowj-e-Sabz, the website of the Green movement, has a delightfully naughty article about the dubious background of Ahmadinejad's latest selection for First Vice President, Mohammad Reza Rahimi. There's little to support claims such as "allegations of stealing land from a University", but this allegation made up for lack of evidence with a sense of style:
He later assumed position as the governor of Kurdistan Province in the early 90s when Rafsanjani was in his second term as Iranian President. According to sources supporting the current coup government, during Rafsanjani’s visit to his province, Rahimi ordered farmers to place their tractors in a way that would read phrases in praise of Rafsanjani.

Meanwhile, three members of Parliament have filed a complaint, requesting investigation of claims that Rahimi forged his doctorate.

1155 GMT: Poke, Poke, Poke. You might think that the Ahmadinejad Government, having gotten agreement to a series of talks and averted the prospect of tougher sanctions, might want to take a quiet, steady line.

No chance. The latest jab of the stick comes from the head of Iran's nuclear programme, Ali Akhbar Salehi, who tells Kayhan that the second uranium enrichment plant at Fardoo will have the latest in high-technology centrifuges. In other words, the calmer narrative of Fardoo as a back-up to the main plant at Natanz will now be replaced, both by Tehran and by "Western" critics of engagement, with the portrayal of Fardoo as a front-line component in Iran's drive to nuclear energy (Iran version) or nuclear weapons ("Western" critics version).

1000 GMT: Former President Mohammad Khatami has visited the home of the recently-released reformist leader Saeed Hajjarian. No details of the discussion have been offered.

0945 GMT: Earlier we noted the closure of Farhange Ashti, a newspaper close to Hashemi Rafsanjani, and the pro-reformist Arman-e Ravabet-e Omoumi by the Press Supervisory Board (0715 GMT). It is now reported that a third newspaper, Tahlil Rooz, has been shut.

0830 GMT: News arrives of a new Web project to offer English translations of German media on the post-election crisis in Iran. Some interesting material is already on-line.

0745 GMT: We've posted a brief analysis and transcript of an interview of former Obama Administration official Ray Takeyh and University of Tehran academic Seyed Mohammad Marandi on CNN. It's a textbook example of how, as Washington pursues engagement, the Ahmadinejad Government will link the talks to international and internal legitimacy.

0715 GMT: A quiet Tuesday so far. The Ahmadinejad Government has been playing up its international profile, calling the Geneva talks on the nuclear programme a “national success” for “Iran's resistance” to foreign pressure and emphasising that the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohammad El Baradei “praised Iran's cooperation" in his Sunday press conference. (There was no reference to El Baradei's call for transparency from Tehran.) Ahmadinejad also proclaimed Iran's support for the Iraqi Government, framing it as an ally against unnamed opponents: "With fine qualities such as theirs, the Iraqi nation has a bright future ahead of it. It will undoubtedly stop its enemies in their tracks and take up its responsibilities with the understanding and foresight that it has."

Nothing further on the “National Unity Plan”. Nor has there been much from the Green movement or even from leading reformists since the weekend. So we are still stuck in trying to understand the politics behind a plan whose details are not known.

However, there was one very powerful signal on Monday of the internal battle between forces allied with Hashemi Rafsanjani and those who oppose his manoeuvres for “political reconciliation”. Farhange Ashti, a newspaper close to Rafsanjani, was closed on orders of the Press Supervisory Board. The pro-reformist Arman-e Ravabet-e Omoumi has also been shut.
Sunday
Oct042009

The Latest from Iran (4 October): Waiting for Developments

NEW Iran: Rafsanjani Makes A Public Move with “Friendship Principles”
NEW Video: Sharif Uni Protest Against Javad Larijani (4 October)
You Make the Call: Leaked IAEA Report on Iran Nuclear Programme
The Latest from Iran (3 October): Debating Mousavi’s Strategy

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IRAN GREEN

1705 GMT: Establishment Battles Resume? Parleman News is claiming that supporters of President Ahmadinejad have tried --- and failed --- to unseat Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani as the head of the Principlist majority group. If true, this could be a sign that the temporary reconciliation of conservative and principlist factions, prominent at the start of September with the approval of the Ahmadinejad Cabinet, may be breaking down.

And that in turn raises the question: is this split being fostered by the imminence of a National Unity Plan which may seek to marginalise Ahmadinejad?

1640 GMT: We think Hashemi Rafsanjani's statement, which we noted here earlier, is important enough to warrant a separate entry.

1625 GMT: The Unity Gesture? EA's Mr Smith predicted that this step would occur in the Supreme Leader's speech at the end of Ramadan on 20 September. Looks like he was only two weeks off: "Iran is to release on bail around 20 people accused of post-election violence, including top reformists and an Iranian-American scholar."

According to the Islamic Republic News Agency, citing a source inside Iran's judiciary, those who may be freed include former Vice President Mohammed Ali Abtahi, journalist Mohammad Atrianfar, reformist leaders Shahab Tabatabaei, Saeed Shariati and Abdollah Momeni, and Iranian-American academic Kian Tajbakhsh.

1430 GMT: Pointless Analysis of Day. A Jeffrey Kuhner, the declared President of the "Edmund Burke Institute", is allowed to take up space in The Washington Times with this: "War with Iran is now inevitable. The only question is: Will it happen sooner or later?"

1240 GMT: Good Cop, Bad Cop. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has provided the critical counterpoint to the positive signals from this morning's briefing by IAEA head Mohammad El-Baradei (0905-0920 GMT):
The [IAEA] is an international authority which should supervise all nuclear activities of states, but the agency's records indicate that it was not successful in this regard for political reasons. The agency acted successfully with regard to nuclear activities in certain places like Japan, but it bowed [to pressure] where it faced political barriers and proved unsuccessful.

The head of Iran's nuclear programme, Ali Akhbar Salehi, sounded a different tune after his press conference with El Baradei. Confirming the late October inspection date for the second enrichment plant and discusions on "third-party enrichment", he said, “As far as safeguards are concerned, Iran's nuclear issue has been fully resolved."

1200 GMT: Report that two members of the reformist student group Daftar-Tahkim-Vahdat (Unity Consolidation Bureau) are still in Evin Prison, with 16 released yesterday. Original reports were that there were 15 detainees, and all were freed.

0920 GMT: El Baradei calls for Iran to rejoin the Subsidiary Protocol (Code 3.1) of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which provides a stricter framework for inspection and monitoring. Iran left the Protocol in 2007 after a dispute with the IAEA over access to information on military programmes as well as the nuclear facilities.

0915 GMT: El Baradei says, "All in all, a positive development," but he reiterates, "I have been saying for a number of years we need transparency on the part of Iran and cooperation on the part of the international community." This is "the critical moment...shifting gears from confrontation into transparency and co-operation".

0910 GMT: El Baradei praises Iran "very positive" response on both the question of access to the second enrichment facility and "third-party enrichment" of low-grade uranium for radiomedicine use.

The date for inspections of the facility near Qom is 25 October.

0905 GMT: IAEA head El Baradei and the head of Iran's nuclear programme, Ali Akhbar Salehi, are now briefing the press on their discussions in Tehran.

0620 GMT: There is little information on the biggest story in Iran because talks on the draft National Unity Plan have gone very private. For example, little has been heard from Mehdi Karroubi, for a week, possibly because discretion is needed in this critical period of negotiations.

There is also little so far on the visit of International Atomic Energy Agency head Mohammad El Baradei to Tehran beyond the Iranian insistence that this has nothing to do with the Geneva talks and is instead aimed at the "continuation of cooperation to supply fuel for Tehran research reactor which produces radiomedicine".

We are left instead with overheated "revelations" on Iran's nuclear programme. Once again, it's David Sanger and William Sanger of The New York Times who are leading the rush with the headline, "Report Says Iran Has Data to Make a Nuclear Bomb", soon picked up by everyone from Reuters to Fox News. The report in question, a study by IAEA experts, says that "sufficient information to be able to design and produce a workable implosion nuclear device based upon HEU [highly-enriched uranium] as the fission fuel".

Now note that this does not mean that Iran has embarked on the process of putting highly-enriched uranium into a warhead. It does not indicate that Iran has embarked on the process of converted low-yield uranium into highly-enriched uranium. It does not establish that Iran has enough low-yield uranium to produce the HEU for a Bomb. It does not even say that Iran has a design for a nuclear weapon. It only says Iran has "sufficient information".

This, however, is enough for Broad and Sanger to pretend that this is a dramatic revelation of a super-secret plot, as the information "go[es] well beyond the public positions taken by several governments, including the United States". And it is the platform for them to take a swipe at El Baradei for refusing to make the study public.

Heck, the extracts from the study are not even "new". They were revealed in an Associated Press article by George Jahn on 17 September. What is significant is the timing of the Broad-Sanger piece, published less than 72 hours after the Geneva talks. If they really wanted to give us some meaningful information, they would reveal whether their Page 1 quest started with a reading of the Jahn piece, notice of a 2 October report by the Institute for Science and International Security (which mentioned Jahn's article and published extracts of the IAEA report, but which is only mentioned deep in The New York Times piece --- we've posted full text in a separate entry), or  a helpful pointer from an Administration source.

It's perfect fodder for bang-the-war-drum headcases like Elliott Abrams, the former Deputy National Security Advisor under George W. Bush and convicted criminal in the Iran-Contra scandal. Here's Abrams explaining that "most Iranians" would accept a military attack on their country:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLYujym5wNU&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]