Palestine: Is the Third Intifada Possible?

Palestine: Hamas Rejects Elections in Gaza

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After mass protests and clashes this month between Israeli police and Palestinians in East Jerusalem, the prospect of a "Third Intifada" has re-emerged.

According to Israel Radio, after leaders had urged Palestinians and Israeli Muslims to defend Jerusalem against "Jewish conquest", a call which triggered a response for Israeli Jews to visit the Temple Mount, Israel's police stated that it will strengthen their forces around the Temple Mount on Sunday.

Haaretz's Zvi Bar'el write about the possibility of a Third Intifada, sharing the thoughts of Egyptian thinker Kamal Gabriel. According to Gabriel, Palestinians lack both a universally shared ideological authority and a leadership that is convinced of its ability to conduct another rising. Religious activism is not enough to trigger a new Intifada. Bar'el concludes that the deepening division between Hamas and Fatah and the increasing tension in the East Jerusalem makes the Intifada an event which is always "possible" but never occurs.

Meanwhile, Haaretz, passing on areport in the London-based Al-Quds al-Arabi, says Sultan Abu al-Ghneim, who represents Fatah in the refugee camps of Lebanon, gave a speech last week at a Ramallah rally calling on Fatah to resume suicide bombings against Israel. Given the assessment that an Intifada is not imminent, the question arises: what purpose does Ghneim's statement serve?

Palestine: Hamas Rejects Elections in Gaza

Palestine: Abbas Gambles on January Elections
Israel-Palestine: Clinton to Obama “Little Progress”

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Hamas has responded harshly to Friday's decree by Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas that general elections for the Presidency and Parliament will be held in the West Bank and Gaza Strip on 24 January.

Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri declared that no vote can be held in Gaza, "This announcement means that elections will take place only in the West Bank, cementing the Palestinian split instead of fixing the problem."

Palestine: Abbas Gambles on January Elections

Israel-Palestine: Clinton to Obama “Little Progress”
Israel-Palestine: Space for a US-Brokered Solution Narrows
Bring It On: Israel Counter-attacks UN over Gaza Enquiry

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Despite Hamas' objections and warnings, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas said Tuesday that he will set 24 January as the date for presidential and legislative elections. At the time, appearing with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, Abbas claimed, "Fatah completely supported the Egyptian proposal [for Palestinian reconciliation]...but then Hamas put down obstacles."

Abbas, who has faced difficulties not only with Hamas but also with Palestinians in the West Bank and with Israel, has now used his two cards: The threat of a third intifada and the a re-submitted proposal endorsing the Goldstone Report on the Gaza War. Now, it is Hamas' turn, as it ponders whether to warn Washington that the tension may increase in Palestine or to enter the electoral process in the expectation that it can defeat Abbas.

The question is: can Abbas, looking for an exit strategy from the pressure on many fronts, really make the declaration of elections come true, especially in the wake of the recent failed initiative for renewed talks between Israel and Palestine? Or is he bluffing?

Palestine: Will Hamas Return to Cairo Talks Bring Agreement?

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Although Egypt said on Saturday that a reconciliation agreement between Hamas and Fatah had been postponed due to "inappropriate condition", it appears the U.S. reaction has prodded Hamas to return to the negotiation table. On Sunday, in an interview with Palestine Note, Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal confirmed that the Islamist group will send a delegation to Cairo.



The parties were supposed to meet in Cairo last Thursday, but  only Fatah showed up to sign the reconciliation agreement without any reservations. If appears that, after Hamas asked for a few days to wait and see, Meshaal has changed his mind; however, Hamas has not given a guarantee that they will accept the dcoument. Hamas' deputy political leader, Abu Marzouk, has reiterated the reservations of Hamas over the US demand for recognition of the principles of the Quartet (US, European Union, UN, Russia). Marzouk also insisted on international recognition if Hamas wins Palestinian elections and on the re-opening of the Gaza-Egypt border crossing at Rafah.

Hamas delegates are going to Cairo and gives the message to Washington: "We are in," but will they arrive there with an "uncompromising" position towards the US as well as Fatah?

Israel-Palestine: UN Council Endorses Goldstone Report --- What Now?

Israel-Palestine: No UN Progress on Goldstone Report on Gaza
Transcript: The Palestinian Authority Draft to UN Human Rights Council (15 October)

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On Friday the United Nations Human Rights Council endorsed the Goldstone Report, which found evidence of war crimes by both Hamas and Israel in the Gaza War. The vote was 25-6 with 16 abstentions. The US opposed the resolution while Britain and France did not vote. (The full list is at the bottom of the entry.)

The five-page resolution was remarkable for two reasons. First, it not only condemned Israeli crimes during Operation Cast Lead but also, beyond the war, denounced Israeli human rights violations in east Jerusalem, the West Bank, and Gaza. Second, although Goldstone Report cites both Hamas and Israel, the resolution explicitly names only Israel as a violator of international law. Goldstone criticized the UN decision to condemn only Israel, saying that the wording of the resolution was unfortunate.

Israel's Foreign Ministry rejected the resolution and called the decision "unjust":

Israel will continue to exercise its right to self-defense and to preserve the security of its citizens.

Israel believes that the decision harms efforts to protect human rights in accordance with international law and hinders efforts to promote the peace process as well as encouraging terror organizations around the world.

Israel thanks the countries that supported our position, and those who, with their vote, voiced their opposition to the unjust decision which ignores the murderous Hamas attacks against Israeli citizens... The decision ignores the fact that the Israel Defense Forces took unprecedented measures to avoid harming innocent civilians, and the fact that terror organizations used civilians as human shields in Gaza.

In contrast, Hamas welcomed the decision and said that they hoped that it would lead to "the beginning of the prosecution of the leaders of the occupation". The Palestinian Authority said that a follow-up on implementation of the recommandations in the report, "to protect the Palestinian people from Israeli aggression", was needed.

This may be the end of the line, however, for the report. The resolution asks that the Security Council forward the findings to the International Criminal Court, but the US, France, and Britain are unlikely to support the move. Indeed, with substantive action unlikely, the resolution may be an unexpected victory for Israel, with the United Nations proving its "one-sided position".

FOR the resolution: Argentina, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, China, Cuba, Djbouti, Egypt, Ghana, India, Indonesia, Jordan, Mauritius, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, South Africa and Zambia

AGAINST the resolution: United States, Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, Slovakia and Ukraine

ABSTAINING: Belgium, Bosnia, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Gabon, Japan, Mexico, Norway, Korea, Slovenia, Uruguay, Britain, France, Madagascar, Kyrgyzstan and Angola