The Latest on US Foreign Policy from Argentia

Our colleagues in the US Foreign Policy group of the British International Studies Association have published their latest issue of Argentia, featuring an article on why Barack Obama is unlikely to reduce the world's stockpile of nuclear weapons, a depressing look at US involvement in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and Obama's "Six Months of Living Cautiously". There is also a roundtable review of Joseph Nye's latest book, The Powers to Lead, with a response by Nye.

Palestine: Abbas Facing Pressure from His Own Party?

The Results of the Mitchell Israel-Palestine Trip: Nothing
Palestine: Palestinian Authority Scrambles to Regain Authority
Palestine Video: Gazans Throw Their Shoes at Abbas

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Tension between Fatah and Hamas increases. After Hamas's decision to postpone the reconciliation talks in Cairo, the Fatah Party's Central Committee has urged Fatah and Palestianian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas to issue a presidential decree on 25 October for presidential and parliamentary elections.

Fatah's counter-plan is more of a rescue operation for the party itself, rather than for Abbas himself. The problem is now far more than Hamas' declaration that they would not shake the hand of the "traitor". Within the last two weeks, the furour over Abbas' blocking of a UN vote on the Goldstone Report on Gaza has turned many in the West Bank against him. Faced  with renewed corruption allegations against Fatah and a weakening position, Fatah elites are looking for a way to re-take the initiative.

Meanwhile, Abbas tries to regain his position by resubmitting the proposal for a vote on the Goldstone Report. He said:

The council must reach a decision to judge anyone who committed crimes against the Palestinian nation... I respect the majority opinion, and in the wake of everything that has happened, I have decided that the matter should be turned over again to the Human Rights Council!" Then, he defended his previous decision at the Council: "The decision to postpone [the vote] was a result of a consensus among the different parties at the Human Rights Council ... and in order to secure the largest number of supporters for any resolution in the future.

Both sides continue to blame each other for political manipulation of the Gaza finding. Yasser Abed Rabbo, a senior PLO official and adviser to Abbas, accused Hamas of exploiting the Goldstone Report to "damage national unity." In return, Hamas warned the Palestinian Authority not to declare new elections unilaterally. Hamas spokesman Fawzi Barhoum said that polls in the West Bank alone would further divisions between Palestinians.

The Results of the Mitchell Israel-Palestine Trip: Nothing

On Sunday, U.S. special envoy George Mitchell went to Israel for a second set of talks with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Before the discussion, he told reporters: "It has been and remains an important objective of American policy and of President Obama and the secretary of state personally to achieve comprehensive peace in the Middle East." He added: "We understand that there are many difficulties, that there are many obstacles. But we are determined and committed to continue our efforts until that objective is reached."

After Mitchell's meeting, Netanyahu's office said the Prime Minister and Defense Minister Ehud Barak had continued the talks with Mitchell to advance the peace process. Lower-level Israeli officials are to travel to Washington this week for further discussions.

Mitchell has completed his 9th tour of the region and returned home. The commitment of the U.S. President Barack Obama continues, but the envoy has not been given any concessions by either party. And this could well be the situation when he submits his report to the President in mid-October.

The Latest from Iran (11 October): The Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting

NEW Iran: English Text of Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting (10 October)
NEW Iran: The Washington-Tehran Deal on Enriched Uranium?
NEW Iran: So Who Controls the Islamic Republic?
The Latest from Iran (10 October): Karroubi is Back

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1900 GMT: Former President Khatami has followed up his speech in Yazd Province (1445 GMT) with a strong challenge to the regime on his website: “Be sure that people will never back down. Today, we are living in a world in which no dictator could be imposed on people to force them to be absolute obedient to him. An acceptable government is a government born out of people.” An English summary is in the Los Angeles Times.)

1845 GMT: We've posted the full English-language summary of the Mousavi-Karroubi meeting in a separate entry.

1630 GMT: EA's Mr Smith checks in with a snap analysis of the Mousavi-Karroubi meeting (1430 GMT):

General mood appears to be to be firmness on opposition to government, but strictly within the parameters of the nezam (political system)....They both asked for airtime on national television to air their version of the post-election events. All in all, I think they are attempting to settle in for a more long-term strategy of opposition, one that implicitly relies on sporadic street protests, coinciding with the main "mobilisation" events of the regime. They will keep well within the boundaries of the political system to progressively claw away at Ahmadinejad's power.

I personally think they reached this conclusion after running out of other options, and frankly it is not quite clear whether it holds at all as a long-term strategy.

1445 GMT: Former President Mohammad Khatami has spoken with an audience in Yazd Province. Criticising violent and brutal acts against reformists and protestors, he warned the Government that, if they do not let critics express their opinions, then the movement will move toward radicalism. (English summary on Facebook page connected with Zahra Rahnavard)

1430 GMT: Green Talks. Tagheer, the website connected with Mehdi Karroubi, has a lengthy article on a meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi yesterday.

1420 GMT: An Iranian activist is reporting a fourth post-election detainee has been sentenced to death. Hamed Rouhinejad, like Mohammad Reza Ali Zamani and Arash Pour-Rahmani, is accused of belonging to a monarchist organisation carrying out crimes against the state.

1050 GMT: Fereshteh Ghazi is reporting the sentences handed out to 16 post-election protesters (according to state media, 18 were convicted in September and are now appealing the verdicts): "Alireza Eshraghi 5 years, Mohsen Jafari 4 years, Mehrdad Varshoie 3 years, Yaghoutil Shanoulian 2 years 6 months, Faramarz Abdollah Nezhad 2 years 4 months, Amir Hojjati 2 years 3 months, Mousa Shah Karami 2 years 3 months, Kamran Jahanbani 2 years, Hossein Bastani 2 years, Hossein Ezami 2 years, Mehdi Fatah Bakhsh 1 year 9 months, Majid Moghimi 1 year, Mohammad Farahani 10 months, Mohammad Rasouli 10 months, Meysam Ghorbani 6 months and 74 lashes, Reza Imanpour 6 months".

1030 GMT: Really? Someone needs to show Secretary of State Hillary Clinton our analysis of the story from The Washington Post. As the Obama Administration pursues a private deal with Tehran over uranium enrichment, she is blowing the public smoke of threat, telling reporters in London, the world "will not wait indefinitely" for Iran to meet international obligations.

1025 GMT: We've posted two important items this morning. Jerry Guo of Foreign Affairs, echoing analyses that our readers have discussed for weeks, considers the "control" of the Iranian Government by "the Revolutionary Guard and its allies". Glenn Kessler of The Washington Post, fed the information by Obama Administration officials, reveals the developing US-Iran deal for enrichment of Tehran's uranium.

1020 GMT: Our sharp-eyed, sharp-minded readers have been discussing a number of stories about Iran's difficult economic situation and the impact it might have upon the regime. This item stood out: "1700 employees of Wagon Pars Company in Arak have gone on a hunger strike to protest the company’s failure to pay their wages and pension....This is the ninth protest organized by the employees this year." Wagon Pars, which was recently privatised, is one of Iran's largest manufacturers of railway vehicles.

1000 GMT: The reaction to the Behnoud Shojai execution (see 0630 GMT) continues to dominate Interenet discussion. A reader alerts to a moving statement on the case, and Rosemary Church of CNN has picked up via Twitter on the developments (though there is still no reference on CNN's website).

0630 GMT: Little political movement so far today. Iranian state media is reinforcing the image of Government by highlighting the attendance of President Ahmadinejad at a conference on...Iranian state media. The Islamic Republic News Agency reports that the discussions of media operations included more than 800 experts from 21 Government agencies and units, with the Head of Cultural Commission of Parliament and the Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance also present.

One of those media operations is in Fars News. The newspaper features an Isfahan University professor declaring that the award of the Nobel Peace Prize to recipients such as Iranian human rights lawyer Shirin Ebadi and President Obama is a "green light" for the Green movement of post-election protest.

Meanwhile, after a day of tension and confusion over the death sentences handed down to three post-election detainees, activists have been occupied overnight with the execution of Behnoud Shojai. Shojai, whose case precedes the election, was 17 when convicted in 2005 of murder in a fight; the execution, which had been delayed four times, was carried out despite Shojai's claim of self-defence.

Nobel Peace Prize Shock: Ahmadinejad Wins!

Obama’s Nobel Prize: There’s Concerned…And Then There’s Stupid
Instant Reaction: Barack Obama Wins Nobel Peace Prize
Video/Transcript: Obama’s Reaction to the Nobel Peace Prize
The Latest from Iran (10 October): Karroubi is Back

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The Desperate Blogger at Salon breaks the real news of this year's prize:

Tehran, October 9 – In a rare appearance during Friday prayers, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, announced that Iran’s Supreme Council has officially declared Mahmoud Ahamadinejad the 2009 Winner of the Nobel Peace Prize.  The 18-member Council voted 26-2 (with 3 abstentions) to certify the election result in an emergency session called amid confusion resulting from the Nobel Committee’s announcement that U.S. President Barack Obama had won the prestigious award.

Saying he was both “humbled and honored” to be chosen, Ahmadinejad, who is only the third Holocaust denier to win the prize, told an adoring crowd estimated at 200,000, give or take a few “British-sponsored troublemakers”, that the announcement caught him “totally off guard”.

“I thank the members of the Nobel Committee for having the courage to overlook all the ‘death to this country, death to that country’ stuff, as well as the ‘wiping Israel off the map’ comments,” the Iranian President said to chants of "Death to Norway!"

“And I thank them for recognizing the modern Iran which, at least officially, has lived and thrived in peace with our neighbors for over 20 years, and further, has done so entirely without homosexuals.”

Ahmadinejad went on to comment about what he saw as the moment’s “most profound irony”, pertaining to the fact that Alfred Nobel, who left an endowment to fund the awards that bear his name, made his fortune as the inventor of T.N.T.  “In December, in Oslo, I will most humbly and gratefully accept, on behalf of the Islamic Republic, a medal bearing the likeness of a great man – a great man whose invention sounds like a kid cracking bubble gum compared to what we’ve got in the pipeline…”

When asked for his thoughts on the announcement that Ahmadinejad had received the most votes from the Nobel Committee, Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai told E! Network’s ‘The Soup’, “Not so fast.”

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