Election Update: Keeping the Horse Race Alive

It appears some hearts are a-flutterin' today at the prospect that the Presidential race on November 4 may not be over by bedtime on the East Coast of the US, let alone here in Britain. Four of the eight new national polls (Rasmussen, Gallup Traditional, IBD/TIPP, and GWU/Battleground), including two of the three with the largest samples, have Obama only up three points on McCain.

This quicker heartbeat isn't just the symptom of a broadcast media hoping for more drama (and ratings) approching that of 2000 and 2004. Some colleagues, both in Britain and the US, are thinking that the Democrats --- for all their spending and push for voter registration --- haven't solidified their voting base.

All the same, I have to be a bit of a party pooper. The issue is not that those "other" polls (including the Gallup Expanded, which is more likely than the Traditional to be relevant in a year of high voter turnout) have Obama with a steady 5-7 point lead. Let's even set aside that FiveThirtyEight.com, comprehensive and by far the shrewdest assessor of what polls can and can't indicate, has the gap still holding at just under 6 percent.

To paraphrase Brother Bill Clinton's folks, it's the states, stupid. And there is little movement towards McCain in the nine battleground states (Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada) that will decide this contest. Yes, he has closed to level-pegging with Obama in Missouri and he's only 1 1/2 points out in Indiana. It's a minor yes --- even with Missouri and Indiana in his column, which we projected on Monday, the Republicans are more than 130 electoral votes adrift.

If anything, the unexpected shifts today are away from the Republicans. RealClearPolitics, for example, has excitedly moved Georgia --- yep, the red-state Georgia where my relatives live --- into the toss-up column. I hasten to add that the other top sites, including FiveThirtyEight, still have the Peach State firmly Republican --- it appears that RCP has made its move because of one poll that has Obama down only a point and on the basis of strong early voting returns in Georgia in favour of the Democrats.

That last point is important, however, not necessarily for Georgia but for other states. FiveThirtyEight has noted an unprecedented early turnout. In the states of Louisiana, Georgia, and North Carolina, the early returns already exceed 2004 totals. And, just as important, that surge is favouring Obama.

The trend isn't just at state level. In key counties in Ohio, the pivot state of 2004, early returns are two to three times the entire 2004 turnout. If Obama is performing as well in those returns as in the state, his lead would be more than enough to wipe out the narrow deficit that defeated John Kerry in Ohio in 2004.

That's a big if, of course, as it assumes that all other things will be equal on Election Day. Of course, McCain could surprise me with an unexpected surge. Of course, there may be some truth to the legend of the "Bradley effect", with declared Democratic voters suddenly turning Republican as they enter the voting booth.

But "may" doesn't translate into likely. A friend sounded off earlier this evening that pollsters don't seem to be mentioning "margin of error" in their reporting of samples --- given that the margin for even a medium-sized poll is 3 percent either way, it could more than wipe out Obama's putative lead in key states. It's a fair point, but when you match up an accumulation of polls with readings of other factors from organisation to high voter registration for the Democrats to the early voting patterns, the case for an Obama victory --- and an early victory --- on 4 November continues to be close to open-and-shut.

Election Talk: Obama's Internet Advantage

An advance talking point for you to use with friends when they ask on 5 November, "Why did Barack Obama win the election?"

In the contest of Internet videos, here's an entry from the Obama camp which updates Budweiser's "Wassup?" marketing campaign of 2000. It's contemporary but appeals to those of you who still associate video literacy with the dot.com '90s. And it's got an inside joke, since John McCain owes much of his political and personal fortune to marriage to Ms Cindy, daughter of one of America's largest Budweiser distributors:

[youtube]http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=Qq8Uc5BFogE[/youtube]

Now, let's have a glance at an Internet contribution backing John McCain:

[viddler id=abf84280&w=437&h=333]

So if you get asked, in the next six days, "Wassup?" --- just answer, "The Democratic campaign".

Election Talk: 3rd Party Candidate Threatens McCain Chances

No, it's not the Libertarian Party's Bob Barr. And it's definitely not Ralph Nader. Meet Joad Cressbeckler, the independent candidate who makes John McCain look inexperienced and, well, moderate....

[youtube]http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=0iqktCdX0hs[/youtube]

Election Warning: The Socialists Are On Our Doorstep....

I thought John McCain's latest line on the danger of Barack Obama wanting to "spread the wealth" was just a bit of desperate rhetoric. This top-secret report has just come in from a contact in the United States, proving the evils of income redistribution are closer than we think:

Notice to All Employees

As of November 5, 2008, when President Obama is officially elected into office, our company will instill a few new policies which are in keeping with his new, inspiring issues of change and fairness:

1. All salespeople will be pooling their sales bonuses into a common pool that will be divided equally between all of you.  This will serve to give those of you who are underachieving a 'fair shake.'

2. All low level workers will be pooling their wages, including overtime, into a common pool, dividing it equally amongst yourselves.  This will help those who are 'too busy for overtime' to reap the rewards from those who have more spare time and can work extra hours.

3. All top management will now be referred to as 'the government.'  We will not participate in this 'pooling' experience because the law doesn't apply to us.

4. The 'government' will give eloquent speeches to all employees every week, encouraging its workers to continue to work hard 'for the good of all.'

5. The employees will be thrilled with these new policies because it's 'good to spread the wealth.'  Those of you who have underachieved will finally get an opportunity; those of you who have worked hard and had success will feel more 'patriotic.'

6. The last few people who were hired should clean out their desks.  Don't feel bad though, because President Obama will give you free healthcare, free handouts, free oil for heating your home, free food stamps, and he'll let you stay in your home for as long as you want even if you can't pay your mortgage.  If you appeal directly to our democratic congress, you might even get a free flat screen TV and a coupon for free haircuts (shouldn't all Americans be entitled to nice looking hair?) !!!

If for any reason you are not happy with the new policies, you may want to rethink your vote on November 4th.

Election Talk: The Campaign and The Races in the Senate

States of Play

To paraphrase Saturday Night Live’s classic 1970s sketch on General Francisco Franco, “The McCain-Palin campaign is stubbornly clinging to death.”

There are no significant shifts in likely state outcomes from Monday. RealClearPolitics has only two changes. New Hampshire is back in play, i.e., “leaning” rather than “solid” Democratics, primarily on the basis of two polls that have Obama only 4-5 points up vs. previous readings of 7-15 points. The problem here is that, in such a small state, polling samples can be quite volatile. Even if New Hampshire is now up for grabs, with 4 electoral votes, it’s not a key player despite all the “as New Hampshire goes, so goes the United States” clichés.

Much more fun is Arizona --- that’s right, Big John’s home patch --- moving into “leaning” rather than “solid” Republican. It’s a mirror image of New Hampshire , with a 21-point poll gap suddenly coming down to 5-8. Again, I don’t think the state will shift on 4 November although, as FiveThirtyEight shrewdly notes, the spillover effect from Obama’s rally in Arizona is that it bolsters his position in neighbouring New Mexico .

No changes on FiveThirtyEight, which keeps both Arizona and New Hampshire safe for the respective favourites. Reading the state polls, however, they now have McCain down to a 3% chance of triumphing on Election Day.

Just for Comparison

In case you’re suspicious of a pro-Obama bias here, Watching America is a bit more cautious on his prospects than either FiveThirtyEight or RealClearPolitics. Our 338-200 prediction matches up with 351-187 on FiveThirtyEight and an Obama landslide of 375-163 on RCP.

Turning to Congress

We’ll try and do a full run-down on both the Senate and House before next Tuesday, particularly as they have been largely overlooked by the British media (Anne Applebaum’s column in the Daily Telegraph is today’s exception).

Here’s a snapshot of a quite interesting year for Senate contests, which features a convicted felon (Republican Ted Stevens of Alaska, found guilty yesterday on seven counts of violating Federal ethics laws), a comedian/best-selling writer (Democrat Al Franken of Minnesota), former Cabinet member (Republican Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina), and several long-serving Republicans in the fights of their electoral lives.

The current Senate is balanced at 49-49 between the two parties, although the Independents Joseph Lieberman and Bernie Sanders are with the Democratic Caucus (in the case of Lieberman, very “technically” with the Democratic Caucus). However, with the “Bush effect” kicking in big-time, an Election Day bonanza for the Democrats is possible.

There are 35 races this year (because of the six-year term of Senators, only one-third come back to the voters in every two-year electoral cycle). The 2002 success of the Republicans now turns against them, as only 12 of the seats are held by Democrats. More importantly, all of those Democratic seats are safe.

In contrast, no less than eleven of the Republican seats are now vulnerable, including --- in a late turnaround at the polls --- that of the Republican leader in the Senate, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. In a country where an incumbent Senator used to be only at risk if he is found naked in a park, is outed by his mistress, or “does a Stevens” and gets jail time, this level of vulnerability is extraordinary.

This, however, is no ordinary year. In three of the Republican seats, the incumbent is not standing. Those can be handed to the Democrats (Mark Warner in Virginia, Mark Udall in Colorado , Tom Udall in New Mexico ) right now. In New Hampshire, incumbent Republican John Sununu has been trailing former Governor Jeanne Shaheen by about nine points In Oregon, incumbent Republican Gordon Smith is trying to claw back a four-point deficit to Jeff Merkley with a clever tactic: he’s claiming common ground with Barack Obama in the hope that Oregonians, who lead the nation in their disapproval of George W. Bush, will see him as a bridge-builder with the next President.

Three other seats should have been safe Republican holds but, in the last few weeks, have suddenly turned into real electoral races. Roger Wicker is down to a 1-2 point lead in some polls in Mississippi . Saxby Chambliss in Georgia , who got into the Senate in 2002 thanks to an atrocious smear campaign by Bush’s political spinners against the Vietnam veteran Max Cleland, is only two points up. And Republican Senate leader McConnell now finds he is only a couple of points ahead in Kentucky . It makes for interesting viewing (and, for partisan Democrats, hopes of a night comparable to the 1997 Labour thrashing of the Tories in Britain ), but all three races should stay with the Republicans.

That leaves three Senate races in the balance. In a race which, for politicos with no other life, has been fascinating train-wreck viewing, Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina has been tumbling against Kay Hagan --- she’s now two points down and can be marked as the underdog. In Alaska, Felon Ted Stevens is now one point behind Mark Begich --- FiveThirtyEight is confident that the Democrats will take the seat but Stevens now only has the look and morals but also the rising-from-the-dead quality of a vampire.

Last but definitely not least, in the race which may capture the essence of the last seven Bush years, Al Franken --- Saturday Night Live member and author of books such “Rush Limbaugh is a Big Fat Idiot” and “Lies and the Liars Who Tell Them” --- has come from way back to a realistic shot of unseating Republican Norm Coleman, best known for getting his political backside handed to him when he questioned George Galloway over Iraq. This seat was held by the Democrat Paul Wellstone, one of the finest persons ever to serve in Congress, until he died just before the 2002 election, so it has a special resonance for activists.

How do the numbers work out? At a maximum, the Democrats will be up 60-38 (with two Independents) in the new Senate but a more realistic “high hope” is a 57-41 split (if Hagan, Begich, and Franken triumph).

In practical terms, that isn’t an overwhelming turn of fortunes in the Congress. The media’s one grasp of this is that the Democrats get a “lock” on the Senate if they have 60 seats, as they can prevent another Republican filibuster to block legislation. That, however, is a relatively minor consideration, testimony less to political reality than to the fact that Jimmy Stewart and the movie Mr Smith Goes to Washington still defines the Congress for some onlookers. What is clear, however, is that the Democrats don’t need Joe Lieberman anymore to ensure a majority. So they solidify their hold on Committee chairmanships and key posts.

More importantly, a gain of eight seats for the Democrats will be a powerful symbol in its own right, complementing that of an Obama Change. After close to a generation of supposed defining of American values by the Republicans --- from Ronald Reagan to little Bush --- the other party has the chance to take responsibility. Whether it does, in a meaningful rather than rhetorical way, will do a lot to answer the question of “What is America ?” for those of us outside the United States .