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Wednesday
Oct292008

Election Talk: 3rd Party Candidate Threatens McCain Chances

No, it's not the Libertarian Party's Bob Barr. And it's definitely not Ralph Nader. Meet Joad Cressbeckler, the independent candidate who makes John McCain look inexperienced and, well, moderate....

[youtube]http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=0iqktCdX0hs[/youtube]
Tuesday
Oct282008

Election Warning: The Socialists Are On Our Doorstep....

I thought John McCain's latest line on the danger of Barack Obama wanting to "spread the wealth" was just a bit of desperate rhetoric. This top-secret report has just come in from a contact in the United States, proving the evils of income redistribution are closer than we think:

Notice to All Employees


As of November 5, 2008, when President Obama is officially elected into office, our company will instill a few new policies which are in keeping with his new, inspiring issues of change and fairness:


1. All salespeople will be pooling their sales bonuses into a common pool that will be divided equally between all of you.  This will serve to give those of you who are underachieving a 'fair shake.'


2. All low level workers will be pooling their wages, including overtime, into a common pool, dividing it equally amongst yourselves.  This will help those who are 'too busy for overtime' to reap the rewards from those who have more spare time and can work extra hours.


3. All top management will now be referred to as 'the government.'  We will not participate in this 'pooling' experience because the law doesn't apply to us.


4. The 'government' will give eloquent speeches to all employees every week, encouraging its workers to continue to work hard 'for the good of all.'


5. The employees will be thrilled with these new policies because it's 'good to spread the wealth.'  Those of you who have underachieved will finally get an opportunity; those of you who have worked hard and had success will feel more 'patriotic.'


6. The last few people who were hired should clean out their desks.  Don't feel bad though, because President Obama will give you free healthcare, free handouts, free oil for heating your home, free food stamps, and he'll let you stay in your home for as long as you want even if you can't pay your mortgage.  If you appeal directly to our democratic congress, you might even get a free flat screen TV and a coupon for free haircuts (shouldn't all Americans be entitled to nice looking hair?) !!!


If for any reason you are not happy with the new policies, you may want to rethink your vote on November 4th.

Tuesday
Oct282008

Election Talk: The Campaign and The Races in the Senate

States of Play


To paraphrase Saturday Night Live’s classic 1970s sketch on General Francisco Franco, “The McCain-Palin campaign is stubbornly clinging to death.”


There are no significant shifts in likely state outcomes from Monday. RealClearPolitics has only two changes. New Hampshire is back in play, i.e., “leaning” rather than “solid” Democratics, primarily on the basis of two polls that have Obama only 4-5 points up vs. previous readings of 7-15 points. The problem here is that, in such a small state, polling samples can be quite volatile. Even if New Hampshire is now up for grabs, with 4 electoral votes, it’s not a key player despite all the “as New Hampshire goes, so goes the United States” clichés.


Much more fun is Arizona --- that’s right, Big John’s home patch --- moving into “leaning” rather than “solid” Republican. It’s a mirror image of New Hampshire , with a 21-point poll gap suddenly coming down to 5-8. Again, I don’t think the state will shift on 4 November although, as FiveThirtyEight shrewdly notes, the spillover effect from Obama’s rally in Arizona is that it bolsters his position in neighbouring New Mexico .


No changes on FiveThirtyEight, which keeps both Arizona and New Hampshire safe for the respective favourites. Reading the state polls, however, they now have McCain down to a 3% chance of triumphing on Election Day.


Just for Comparison


In case you’re suspicious of a pro-Obama bias here, Watching America is a bit more cautious on his prospects than either FiveThirtyEight or RealClearPolitics. Our 338-200 prediction matches up with 351-187 on FiveThirtyEight and an Obama landslide of 375-163 on RCP.


Turning to Congress


We’ll try and do a full run-down on both the Senate and House before next Tuesday, particularly as they have been largely overlooked by the British media (Anne Applebaum’s column in the Daily Telegraph is today’s exception).


Here’s a snapshot of a quite interesting year for Senate contests, which features a convicted felon (Republican Ted Stevens of Alaska, found guilty yesterday on seven counts of violating Federal ethics laws), a comedian/best-selling writer (Democrat Al Franken of Minnesota), former Cabinet member (Republican Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina), and several long-serving Republicans in the fights of their electoral lives.


The current Senate is balanced at 49-49 between the two parties, although the Independents Joseph Lieberman and Bernie Sanders are with the Democratic Caucus (in the case of Lieberman, very “technically” with the Democratic Caucus). However, with the “Bush effect” kicking in big-time, an Election Day bonanza for the Democrats is possible.


There are 35 races this year (because of the six-year term of Senators, only one-third come back to the voters in every two-year electoral cycle). The 2002 success of the Republicans now turns against them, as only 12 of the seats are held by Democrats. More importantly, all of those Democratic seats are safe.


In contrast, no less than eleven of the Republican seats are now vulnerable, including --- in a late turnaround at the polls --- that of the Republican leader in the Senate, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. In a country where an incumbent Senator used to be only at risk if he is found naked in a park, is outed by his mistress, or “does a Stevens” and gets jail time, this level of vulnerability is extraordinary.


This, however, is no ordinary year. In three of the Republican seats, the incumbent is not standing. Those can be handed to the Democrats (Mark Warner in Virginia, Mark Udall in Colorado , Tom Udall in New Mexico ) right now. In New Hampshire, incumbent Republican John Sununu has been trailing former Governor Jeanne Shaheen by about nine points In Oregon, incumbent Republican Gordon Smith is trying to claw back a four-point deficit to Jeff Merkley with a clever tactic: he’s claiming common ground with Barack Obama in the hope that Oregonians, who lead the nation in their disapproval of George W. Bush, will see him as a bridge-builder with the next President.


Three other seats should have been safe Republican holds but, in the last few weeks, have suddenly turned into real electoral races. Roger Wicker is down to a 1-2 point lead in some polls in Mississippi . Saxby Chambliss in Georgia , who got into the Senate in 2002 thanks to an atrocious smear campaign by Bush’s political spinners against the Vietnam veteran Max Cleland, is only two points up. And Republican Senate leader McConnell now finds he is only a couple of points ahead in Kentucky . It makes for interesting viewing (and, for partisan Democrats, hopes of a night comparable to the 1997 Labour thrashing of the Tories in Britain ), but all three races should stay with the Republicans.


That leaves three Senate races in the balance. In a race which, for politicos with no other life, has been fascinating train-wreck viewing, Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina has been tumbling against Kay Hagan --- she’s now two points down and can be marked as the underdog. In Alaska, Felon Ted Stevens is now one point behind Mark Begich --- FiveThirtyEight is confident that the Democrats will take the seat but Stevens now only has the look and morals but also the rising-from-the-dead quality of a vampire.


Last but definitely not least, in the race which may capture the essence of the last seven Bush years, Al Franken --- Saturday Night Live member and author of books such “Rush Limbaugh is a Big Fat Idiot” and “Lies and the Liars Who Tell Them” --- has come from way back to a realistic shot of unseating Republican Norm Coleman, best known for getting his political backside handed to him when he questioned George Galloway over Iraq. This seat was held by the Democrat Paul Wellstone, one of the finest persons ever to serve in Congress, until he died just before the 2002 election, so it has a special resonance for activists.


How do the numbers work out? At a maximum, the Democrats will be up 60-38 (with two Independents) in the new Senate but a more realistic “high hope” is a 57-41 split (if Hagan, Begich, and Franken triumph).


In practical terms, that isn’t an overwhelming turn of fortunes in the Congress. The media’s one grasp of this is that the Democrats get a “lock” on the Senate if they have 60 seats, as they can prevent another Republican filibuster to block legislation. That, however, is a relatively minor consideration, testimony less to political reality than to the fact that Jimmy Stewart and the movie Mr Smith Goes to Washington still defines the Congress for some onlookers. What is clear, however, is that the Democrats don’t need Joe Lieberman anymore to ensure a majority. So they solidify their hold on Committee chairmanships and key posts.


More importantly, a gain of eight seats for the Democrats will be a powerful symbol in its own right, complementing that of an Obama Change. After close to a generation of supposed defining of American values by the Republicans --- from Ronald Reagan to little Bush --- the other party has the chance to take responsibility. Whether it does, in a meaningful rather than rhetorical way, will do a lot to answer the question of “What is America ?” for those of us outside the United States .

Monday
Oct272008

Your State-by-State Snapshot of the 2008 Election

Eight mornings to go before Indecision Day, as the Daily Show would call it, and last week’s analysis (Watching America, 23 October) is holding up well. There might well be a party on 4 November but there won’t be much drama.


Surprisingly --- well, surprising to me because it seems to be a forlorn strategy --- the media line that McCain-Palin were going to gamble on turning Pennsylvania Republican seems to have borne out over the weekend. Unsurprisingly, the Democrats countered by upping their presence in the state, with Obama attending rallies in Pittsburgh and the Pennsylvania suburbs this week. Obama-Biden are still up between 11 and 13 points in the latest state polls.


The more important story, picked up by the New York Times this AM, is the desperate attempt of the Republicans to hold onto “their” states from 2004: “Mr. McCain and his running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, are planning to spend most of their time in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, and Indiana.” That’s significant because those are six of the 10 Republican-held swing states that we identified on Thursday. What’s even more significant is that even a Republican miracle in these states won’t be enough: there’s an indication here that the Republicans don’t have the resources to defend Colorado , New Mexico , and Nevada --- a Democratic victory in Colorado plus one of the other two means a President Obama (barring a surprise McCain win in Pennsylvania ).


The broader weekend spin was McCain’s Braveheart call to his troops, insisting, “We’re going to win” and claiming that Obama and Co. are already treating the election as won. It’s a shrewd if expected move, trying to win over floating voters with the impression of an overconfident, even arrogant Democratic campaign. However, in the equally shrewd and expected counter-move, the Democrats are putting out the message that “it ain’t over until it’s over” and no one should expect an easy walk to the White House.


My reading is that McCain will close the national gap slightly over the next week. Underdogs often do so in the last phase of a campaign (Ford v. Carter ’76, Bush v. Clinton ’92 as examples). That will be a token gain, however --- McCain may cling on to a couple of states where he’s slightly behind, but there is no way that he pulls out the “Hail Mary” of modern US politics and takes himself and the Hockey Mom to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.


I won’t be putting my final picks into the office pools until next Monday, but here’s a snapshot of the likely scenario. Remember that 270 electoral votes are needed for victory.


SAFE DEMOCRATIC STATES (20 and Washington D.C --- 259 electoral votes): I won’t list them all but this includes Michigan , Minnesota , and Wisconsin , where the Republicans had hopes of wins, and…


Pennsylvania (21 votes): Sorry, Big John. There’s not much hope in the appeal to that mythical working-class, white multitude in “western Pennsylvania ” to come out in force to stop Obama. Any bump in those areas will be more than offset by big Democratic margins in the urban areas.


SAFE REPUBLICAN STATES (19 --- 157 electoral votes): The fragment of good news for the GOP is that Georgia and West Virginia , which should never have been in doubt, have been shored up in recent days. The fun story, if it’s borne out in the next week, is that Obama is closing the gap in McCain’s home state of Arizona, but I think that’s just a bit of electoral froth and mischief.


THE 11 STATES IN PLAY (122 electoral votes): From largest to smallest…


Florida (27 votes): Obama’s up by just over two points here, a margin which could easily be overturned by the Republicans. Normally I would expect the diehard GOP folks to bring this back to McCain-Palin but memories of 2000 are a force here. The Democrats will want Florida big-time not only to lock down the election but as in-your-face statement to those they think took the Presidency from them eight years ago. A nail-biter but…


Obama-Biden


Ohio (20 votes): Obama’s up 4-6 points and the 2000/2004 “bump” is in play here as well. This was the decisive state four years ago and, discounting the theory that is still about that the Republicans stole the state, the Democrats think they should have made sure of the Buckeye State last time. This time…


Obama-Biden


North Carolina (15 votes): Obama’s up a point in the polls. This is one of those places where I expect a late Republican push to make a difference --- a big turnout in the rural areas may make a difference. Remember, this used to be the state of the late Jesse Helms, the spectre of parochial, xenophobic Republicanism.


McCain-Palin


Virginia (13 votes): Looking back on it, maybe the key state in this campaign. Republican for the last generation but, with its mix of rural areas and affluent suburbs, increasingly up for grabs --- in contrast to North Carolina to the south, not as definable in working-class, white terms. Swung early in the campaign towards the Democrats and Obama’s now up 6-7 points.


Obama-Biden


Missouri (11 votes): See North Carolina --- Obama’s up a point but McCain’s small bounce-back this week may take this one back into the Republican column. Still, I wouldn’t put the house --- or even my children --- on the outcome here.


McCain-Palin


Indiana (11 votes): The first vote to watch on Election Night, as it reports back just after 10 p.m. British time. If it goes for Obama, Democrat parties can already swing. Obama’s lead is whisker-thin, though. This state was such a Republican lock in 2000 and 2004 that, disappointing my colleague “Canuckistan”, have to call it…


McCain-Palin


Colorado (9 votes): Obama up 6-7 points. In a state balanced between big-city liberals, Christian fire-breathers, and rural whites, it’s the liberals who have been better-organised. No surprise that Obama made an appearance in Denver this week to get the party started.


Obama-Biden


New Mexico (5 votes): Obama has steadily gained in the last month, turning a toss-up into an 8-9 point lead. Somebody sometime is going to figure out the US Southwest has never been a die-hard “ Red State ” area, particularly with Hispanic voters drifting away from the Republicans.


Obama-Biden


Nevada (5 votes): The real surprise for those of us who have always lumped it with arch-conservative Utah . Enough swing voters --- by class and education, if not race --- to make this possible hunting ground for the Democrats. The local organization has converted the opportunity --- Obama’s up 2-3 points.


Obama-Biden


North Dakota and Montana (3 votes each): Should never have been in doubt. Even listing them here is a sign of how McCain-Palin have crumbled since early October.


McCain-Palin


YOUR ELECTION NIGHT OUTCOME (MAYBE)



Obama-Biden 338
McC
ain-Palin 230
Saturday
Oct252008

Grand Delusions: From McCain’s Defeat to “Victory” in Iraq 

Amidst this week’s rationalizations by numerous Republicans of John McCain’s forthcoming defeat, one in particular is especially tragic. Michael Gerson, who once wrote speeches for President George W. Bush, explains that McCain will lose the election because he --- and Gerson --- were right about the surge in Iraq whereas Barack Obama is completely wrong.


Forget, for the moment, that Gerson’s explanation ignores what happened in Iraq between 2003 and 2007 in the aftermath of the war he supported. Gerson is flat-out wrong on what is happening in Iraq, wrong not only in description but in what is likely to happen in Iraq in forthcoming months.



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