Wednesday
Nov042009
13 Aban: The Day Goes On (New Thread for Comments)
Wednesday, November 4, 2009 at 22:02 
A bit thanks to all of you. I think it will take me some time to assess what has happened, but it has meant a lot, amidst the drama and moves between worry and hope, to have your support.And nothing ends at midnight. Contrary to what one news service said today, "The opposition did not resurface today after six weeks"; it never went away. And so we'll be back in several hours to see and assess what unfolds.
In the meantime, this is your space to discuss the day.
Reader Comments (71)
Where does power lie in Iran?
There are many players - some of which are common to other countries. ie Parliament, President, Army/Security. But others are not like anywhere else - "Supreme Leader", "Council of Guardians, "Assembly of Experts". To me, the "Constitution" is unlike any other. Which of these needs to "fall" for change to happen? All of them?
Can there be any real change to the current Iranian Constitution. Open democratic societies have an orderly, accepted method of implementing changes to their Constititions - is this even possible in Iran? Is the current Constitution even adhered to?
How can a Dictatorship change to an open, democratic society. Peacefully? By force? By intervention?
Barry
Dear friends, I'll maybe sound too optimistic but in my opinion 13 Aban was a success considering the fact that the Regime's security agents have gained a lot of experience to crush or prevent major gatherings. Judging today's footage I would say that there was a good turnout in many parts of Tehran. And what is far more impressive is the fact that there were obviously major demonstrations in many other cities as well. I canT remember any other post election demonstration with so much video footage from other cities. So we have witnessed a nationwide Green demonstration today, which is great!!!
Jashar
This is coming from twitter, it is unconfirmed but it is being tweeted that the next major protest will be 16 Azar or december 7th and this picture has been tweeted along with it.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_gmt92w_m2qk/SvHWj9JsHVI/AAAAAAAAAAs/Hr-amT-kYnM/s1600-h/%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86.jpg
I fear they might arrest Karroubi. He is crossed so many red lines.
It's understandable that many Green tweets are happy with small things. But what today's action does is mainly (and importantly) to tell the regime the opposition WILL NOT GO AWAY. What does need to be thought about is what "victory" would look like. 1) How would you set about getting the Rev Guard on the run? 2) Capturing the radio station won't cut it these days. 3) whom do *you* want for SL? For Prez? In US terms, you need to get beyond the "well, I hate Cheney" syndrome.
Imagine yourself close to power. What will you do? Wimp out? Party? Run? Clamp with all 4 feet? Now imagine the Guard retreating, Now imagine having to make the decisions instead of reacting to them.
Suggestion: Montazeri for SL.
I take back all of my prior pessimism about today. Protests are lasting into the night! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sn8U5XHSink
Any readers in Iran, keep the protests going tomorrow and indefinitely until Khamenei yields! We'll keep doing everything we can to keep publicizing it!
@Anthony:
They'll do just as you fear... IF THEY'RE EFFING MORONS! Which, come to think of it...
But, right now, that would blow the whole thing open. Powder keg.
If they arrest Karroubi, I think you'll see sit-ins, strikes, etc., and, if all else fails, riots all over Iran
The end for these thugs will come - just as it did for the Stazi - thanks to the bravery of the Iranian people. Let's hope that the West, Nokia-Siemens, and the other military-industrial complex club members do not interfere (although their immoral interests are threatened by change).
Some thoughts:
I think getting a true sense of how big the demos were will be, under current conditions, impossible. BUTT, seeing more and more videos come out tells me it was notably bigger than first feared.
Furthermore, whatever the numbers, the Green demonstrators grow bolder and bolder, angrier and angrier. The stomping of Khamenei's poster was the iconic image of this day (along with Samuel's Basij pals thuggishly beating young women for no reason) and points to this.
Finally, thoughts from Verbrugge:
http://mikverbrugge.tumblr.com/post/233140496/insider-opinion-a-13-aban-post-mortem-of-sorts" rel="nofollow">Part ONE
http://www.twitlonger.com/show/ra62" rel="nofollow">Part TWO
In other words, concilliation is dead. Scott noting the neutering of Rafsanjani (Sr., anyway. His kids, OTOH...) really prefaces this.
So concilliation is dead. What now?
Well, it seems that this stalemate of a situation is going to persist for as long as the current status quo renains. Josh Shahryar put it perfectly in that article when he pointed out that neither the governemnt nor the Green movement has the power to defeat each other. It will take a unexpected major event to act as a catalyst to shift the advantage to either side. Until that happens, we will be here for a while.
Oh my, it looks like these protests in Tehran were much much much bigger than we had thought. Scott, did you see this video from BBC Persian? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9eTniGxZLv8
Green Translation:
"Master Obama, Master Obama please, please, please help us against this nasty, old government. We are not same Iranians of 79. Seriously we are not."
These pathetic individuals actually think that the Americans care one bit about free and fair elections. This is the same Obama that just tried to sell Karzai's sham election in Afghanistan as a free and fair reflection of popular will. When the massive fraud became too obvious to ignore they tried to impose a runoff election. Of course the oppossition wouldn't play along so they simply cancelled the runoff and declared Karzai the winner.
Such people are going to care about the "democratic" nature of Iran's own election. If you believe such garbage I have two tickets to the next Michael Jackson concert which I'm trying to sell.
In 2006 when you had a truly free and fair election in Palestine won by Hamas what did the pro-free-election Americans do?
Why they tried to do everything to overthrow Hamas and empower Fatah.
I'm actually very happy that the pathetic greenies are reaching out to Master Obama. They've finally revealed themselves to be the Quislings we all knew them to be. How silly of me I REALLY, REALLY BELIEVED THEM when they told us that they were following the doctrine of Imam Khomeini the Reformer.
I love all the instant historical revisionism. THE PROTESTS TODAY were much bigger than we all imagined!!! They were huge!!! Maybe millions upon millions showed up in the streets. In fact the crowds in the video look bigger than the ones that greeted the Ayatollah Khomeini when he returned from France in 1979.
They all look even bigger than the crowds that greeted Master Obama in Germany last year. There is no reason to feel down at all!!! It is time to CELEBRATE THIS GREAT VICTORY!!!
What wonderful fantasies are created with the consumption of spirits. Please don't drink and drive.
And some wonder why Alcohol consumption is not halal.
http://www.depresident.com/gallery/overflow/Drunk_Jenna_Bush.jpg
Scott please block this guy Samuel he is just wasting space and everybody's time.
Sorry to disappoint you, Samuel, they're not supplicating Obama - they're warning him: don't throw your weight behind these losers in power, because you're going to have to deal with a Green victory, sooner or later.
Historical revisionism? haha! It's called changing one's opinion in the light of new evidence, something quite antithetical to the primitive Big Brother groupthink of the woman-bashing basiji hive.
What's really shocking me is how big the rallies outside Tehran have become. This is Mashad, Ahmadinejad's supposed base! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_hLDE0Wq-wk
Hey, Sam, ever thought of going through the process of being a politician yourself ? It takes years, and even then, the best.. how could you say it ? There is always an opposition. That's the world, that's human nature today, but to be a politicien, is not a dream world, it's a job that nobody wants.. except a few. DO IT.
Samuel,
I do not read your rant anymore. I see your name and immediately I have a few choice words for you. But out or respect for Scott, people on this blog, and myself I do not write them. It is not worth my time.
I wonder how much Islamic Republic pays for one's honor. You do not need to address that because I do not care to read it.
I try to be a realist, but when I see videos of protests this size as just a side protest and not even one of the bigger ones, I don't see how Khamenei can last much longer.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0D5izlUZXo
The greens need to change their tactic, this idea that change will come in a peacful way is just wishful thinking. I think Mousavi and Karoubi to some extend have underestimated the regime`s willingness to use violence. They need to realize that this is no longer a matter of change within the framework of the law. This is WAR, so they need to change their strategy and implement new tactics.
One reader here drew an analogy to a fotball match, arguing that the Government knew what was coming on 13 aban, and therefore they were extremly prepared. Although I don`t see 13 of aban as failure, I believe it could have been much more powerful if the right tactics where used.
I hate to say it, but it feels like a US military involvement could be the thing.
Ahmadinajad is a long term politician, he was there at the time of the embassy thing. But he hasn't studied enough, he isn't shrewd enough, although he tries. What he should have done is offer posts to all the opposition candidates, and listen to the people, that's what the best politicians do. They try to do the best for their country according to the context, they don't continue repressing opposition with brutal means that is spread around the world in seconds. Someone like that is not exactly inteliigent, not exactly the 'best', but not every country can have the 'best'. Obama is maybe not the 'best', we have to be fair and wait till the end of his mandate, that's what democracy is about. The people vote, and then they complain, this happens everywhere, but that is challenge to see if the person is up to it. Each politicitian is a human no more no less and has to deal with the mass of humanity that are mostly ignorant and only think about their own problems.
Cyrus, I think you're right, it's the context .. so many layers of politics there, how can anyone get through that within the law ? I'm sure that I don't know the answer.
pessimist: The barrier of fear is breaking. I was skeptical about non-violence earlier when I saw pictures of the beatings of young women by the Basij, but after seeing how big many demonstrations there were of thousands of people in every university and every city across the country, it is hard to question the method. 5 months into a violent crackdown by the regime and the demonstrations are huge and may start growing again. That would have been unimaginable in the past. Dictatorships have collapsed from much less.
If I would change anything though, I'd say that the leadership of the Green movement needs to be even more direct in condemning the crackdown and stop coating their statements in the regime's doublespeak. Further, the condemnations should be targeted directly at Khamenei. I think any facade that this was somehow just about Ahmadinejad and that Khamenei could be reasoned with is gone now.
Adam
Well, I agree, in fact a few of the videos viewed here I got goose pimples, (one called 'tehran' in 'set two') I felt the atmosphere, it was really far more violent and sort of more desperate like.
>Dictatorships have collapsed from much less.
Or more... I think that someone else, like myself has drawn parallels to the end of the cold war, the fall of the 'Berlin Wall' that (unfortunately) has taken over our medias at the moment, instead of focusing on precisely what could be the beginning of the end of the 'cold middle east war'.. Of course this anniversary of the Berlin wall is very important especially for our kids who (as many Iranians) weren't born or old enough to know about their 'revolutions'.
For your last paragraph, as I said to Samuel, obviously you need someone who is qualified, someone who has the 'something' more to get the movement focused and efficient. Quite frankly, as an outside observer, I really can't say. And I regret that the regime doesn't recognize, as you say, the force and determination behind these protests. For me, all I can say, is that it's bad politics, bad strategy, they will lose in the long run. They cannot win, even if it takes till the next elections. Too bad for them 'cos then their heads will roll.