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Friday
Nov272009

UPDATED Iran's Nukes: IAEA Non-Resolution on Enrichment Means Talks Still Alive

IRAN NUKES2UPDATE 1830 GMT: We've got the latest on the public framing of the resolution on our updates page. In brief: 1) the Western media are spectacularly missing the political game of this move by the "5+1" powers (US, UK, France, Germany, China, Russia) behind the IAEA; 2) the aim of that game is to get Iran to put away its counter-offer and accept a "third-party enrichment" deal.

Reuters has just posted the news of the resolution adopted by members of the International Atomic Energy Agency on Iran's nuclear programme:
The U.N. nuclear watchdog's governing body voted overwhelmingly on Friday to censure Iran for developing a uranium enrichment site in secret, and demanded it freeze the project immediately.

The resolution, passed by a 25-3 margin with six abstentions, was the first by the 35-nation governing board in almost four years. With rare Russian and Chinese backing, it sent a message of international exasperation with Iran's nuclear secrecy and defiance.

Iran Nuclear Special: What Tehran’s Latest Offer Means (and Why the West Should Consider It)
The Latest from Iran (27 November): Where Now?

Cut through the hyperbole --- "overwhelmingly", "exasperation", "secrecy and defiance" --- and you'll find there is not much here.

The resolution on the second enrichment plant, at Fordoo near Qom, is a slap on the wrist for past "crimes". The facility ceased to be secret when Iran declared it to the IAEA on 21 September. There are no operating centrifuges in the plant, which was inspected by the IAEA earlier this month. As part of the discussions over uranium enrichment, Iran has said that it will accept IAEA supervision of the site.

At most, therefore, the resolution is a demand on Iran that, if further development of Fordoo occurs, it should be declared and the plant should be open to inspection.

But the real story is what is not in the resolution. There is no reference to the discussions on "third-party enrichment", no take-it-or-leave-it demand on Tehran, no mention of sanctions.

In other words, for all the media heat playing up Mohammad El Baradei's statement on Thursday as the sign of the breakdown of engagement with Iran (and possibly for all the stories in the next 24 hours distracted by rhetoric and thus missing the substance of the non-resolution)....

Nothing has broken down at all.

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