Democrat's exit poll results leaked

John Snow says he's received the official Democratic exit poll numbers from a mole in the DNC. He's tipping Obama's 54 to McCain's 44 nationally, and wonders whether he should be using the word "landslide" or "blizzard". They're calling it for Obama 54-45 in Ohio, 52-44 in Florida, and 52-48 in Indiana, amongst others.

Election Morning: Revised Projection --- Obama 338, McCain 200

More than a dozen overnight polls have settled in a remarkably narrow range of a lead of about 7 points for Obama-Biden. If they are on the mark, Obama has not only checked McCain's fight-back of the last week but has slightly widened his advantage.

In light of this national trend and --- more importantly --- early voting patterns and state polls, Enduring America is now putting Florida back in the Democratic camp. The Obama lead in trend-adjusted polls is 2 percent. How much those polls draw from voters who have already cast their ballots rather than those who will show up today is unknown, but we think the combination of a consistent if slight Democratic lead and the mobilisation of Democratic-registered voters will give Obama-Biden the edge.

Beyond Florida, the two states most in doubt are Missouri (the closest of all races at this point) and North Carolina (Republican lead of about 1 point). That, however, is the extent of a glimmer of hope for McCain:

1. Pennsylvania, the one state that the GOP hoped to pull back from the Democrats, seems well beyond reach. Obama is up around 8 points across the polls.

2. These states held by the Republicans in 2004, and thus the margin of victory for George W. Bush, are now likely to fall to the Democrats: Virginia (Democrats up 5-6), New Mexico (Democrats up more than 10), Colorado (Democrats up 6-7), and Nevada (Democrats up 5). Even Ohio, where the Republicans were closing to within toss-up range, appears beyond reach --- Democrats are up 4.

We'll have a full run-down of the states later in preparation for Election Night live blog (from 9 p.m. British time), as well as a break-down of the key contests in Congress. We might have even a couple of "The Worst of Election 2008" stories.

Election Update: Projections from "Canuckistan"

This just in from "Canuckistan":

1. Barack Obama will win 326 to 212 over McCain in the electoral college votes. The election will be declared for him by 5 a.m. at the latest and more likely between 4 and 4:30 a.m. when the polls in 4 states (Hawaii, California, Washington, and Oregon) that Obama will easily win and which are worth 77 electoral college votes close.

2. Conventional wisdom turned out to be correct. All of the forecasts had this as a Democratic year because of the end of 8 years of Republican domination, the unpopularity of the Iraq War, and the decline in the U.S. economy. The breakdown of the economy in October only reinforced this and trumped concern that some voters had about Obama being untested. A sign that it is a Democratic year is that the Dems will also do well in the House and Senate elections. They've been gearing up for this election and the hotly contested battle between Clinton and Obama for the nomination aided in this result becauase it led to the signing up of many new voters and organizations on the ground right across the U.S.

3. Expect radical change in appearance but less in substance in that Obama is planning on committing more troops to Afghanistan and will not be quickly able to pull out of Iraq. The economic downturn in the U.S. leaves him with little wiggle room at home.

4. Win or lose, the candidacy of Barack Obama is a remarkable achievement and demonstrates how far the United States has come in terms of race relations. He will almost certainly win Virginia, once home to the capital of the confederacy. The seriousness of his candidacy also offers a challenge to western democracies who often look rather smugly toward the United States when it comes to racism: where is the British Barack Obama? Where is the French Barack Obama? Where is the Canadian Barack Obama? Where is the German Barack Obama?

A Guide to Watching the Election in Britain

"Canuckistan" offers this helpful guide to combining election-watching and partying on Tuesday night. Remember, we'll be live blogging on Enduring America from 10 p.m. UK time:

"The first significant state to watch is the first one where the polls close: the state of Indiana---the results from here will be available just after 11 p.m. UK time. Indiana has not gone for a Democratic candidate since 1964. George Bush won the state easily in 2000 and 2004. If the state is quickly declared for John McCain then it is a signal of trouble for Obama. On the other hand, if the result takes a while to be declared, even if in the end it goes to McCain, that is a very good sign for Obama as it is an indication that his supporters are turning out. It was Indiana, by the way, that effectively finished the chances of Hillary Clinton against Obama for the Democratic nomination when she barely won the primary there.

The next key result comes in at 12:30 a.m. UK time when polls close in Ohio. No Republican candidate has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio. If Obama wins here, and polls show him ahead, then that will be a strong indication he is going to have a very good night. Remember that if John Kerry had won Ohio in 2004 he would be president.

Then comes 1 a.m. UK time and the polls closing in Pennsylvania. McCain has staked his entire campaign on winning this state which has not gone for a Republican candidate since 1988. Pennsylvania is the only Democratic state from 2004 that McCain is targetting in a semi-realistic fashion. If Obama wins here, then it will only be a matter of time until he is declared the victor.

I predict that the election will be called for Obama between 4 and 4:30 a.m. when the 77 electoral college votes from California, Washington, Oregon and Hawaii are added to his column."