Mr Obama's War: Pakistan Military, Prime Minister Act Against Zardari

Related Post: The Spin is…It’s Not Afghanistan. It’s Pakistan.

Hours after we asked, "[Is] Washington envisaging a Pakistani military running Islamabad’s policy, either behind the scenes or quite openly after toppling President Zardari?", the Asia Times offers a short-term answer:

Chief of Army Staff, General Ashfaq Parvez Kiani (pictured with US General David Petraeus)....met President Asif Ali Zardari for the first time this week --- actually twice --- after returning from Washington, where he had met with senior officials. As a result, a planned crackdown against opposition parties has been shelved.

The newspaper reports that the Punjab Assembly will be reopened; it had been closed after the disqualification of the Chief Minister, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's brother Shahbaz. And, after pressure from Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gillani, Zardari has given up on a plan for mobile law courts. Opposition parties feared these could be used to punish their activists during protests in forthcoming weeks.

The article continues:

On Thursday, Kiani discussed the situation at a meeting with the corps commanders - the heads of the regional army groups - and shared Washington's concerns about governance in Pakistan....This military intervention - and Gillani getting closer to the army - coincides with a drop in Zardari's popularity within his own Pakistan People's Party, the lead party in the ruling coalition.

So, does this mean Zardari is a dead President walking? This is the provocative conclusion of the report:

Although Kiani has become more active, neither the Americans nor the Pakistan army actually wants to change horses in mid-stream. Yet the country is becoming less and less governable under the present arrangement, and quick action is required.

This does not necessarily mean getting rid of Zardari, but he could well be forced to make further concessions to his political rival, former premier and opposition leader Nawaz Sharif, by giving him a share of power. If Zardari does not do this, the military's hand could be forced.

Mr Obama's War: Pakistan Insurgency "Unites" (You Heard It Here First)

Related Post: Mr Obama’s Doctrine - Josh Mull on US Grand Strategy in Pakistan and Beyond

Enduring America, 23 February: "The Asia Times reports, in the aftermath of the local cease-fire between the Pakistani Governments and groups in the Northwest Frontier Provice, 'A mujahideen shura (Shura Ittehad al-Mujahideen) council was formed this weekend due to the personal efforts of Sirajuddin Haqqani.'"

The Guardian, 3 March: "Three rival Pakistani Taliban groups have agreed to form a united front against international forces in Afghanistan in a move likely to intensify the insurgency just as thousands of extra US soldiers begin pouring into the country as part of Barack Obama's surge plan. The Guardian has learned that three of the most powerful warlords in the region have settled their differences and come together under a grouping calling itself Shura Ittihad-ul-Mujahideen, or Council of United Holy Warriors."

The Guardian may be getting to the story a bit late but at least, unlike most media in the "West", it has noted a significant development.

And, to give reporter Saeed Shah further credit, the article picks up on the equally important "other half" of the story: "The unity among the militants comes after a call by Mullah Omar, the cleric who leads the Afghan Taliban, telling Pakistani militants to stop fighting at home in order to join the battle to 'liberate Afghanistan from the occupation forces'."

No doubt Josh Mull, who has posted essential blogs for Enduring America on the Pakistani insurgency, can go a bit further than the simple call-and-response narrative. As he has noted, the "Taliban" is now a coalition of forces, some of whom have moved beyond Mullah Omar, and Pakistani local insurgents have their own motives for offering to hold fire at home and fighting abroad.

Still the essential question is now put: are the manoeuvres between the insurgent groups and the Pakistani Government for cease-fires and local deals going to free up these forces to wage an even more intense campaign against the US and its "Obama Doctrine" not just in Pakistan but across the border?