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Entries by Scott Lucas (146)

Friday
Jun112010

China This Week: Pipelines to Myanmar, US Penalties, Google's Concession

New EA correspondent Shan Shan launches our China This Week feature:

China Starts Pipelines to Myanmar

China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), the country's largest oil and gas producer and supplier, has announced that work has started on construction of two oil and gas pipelines between China and Myanmar.

In a statement posted on its website, the CNPC said that the pipelines, each of 1100 kilometres, are expected to run from the Kyaukpyu port on Myanmar's west coast and enter China at Ruili in Yunnan Province. The oil pipeline has a designed transport capacity of 22 million tonnes per year, while the natural gas pipeline has capacity of 12 billion cubic meters annually.

The statement did not say when the project would be finished.

US Sets Penalties on Chinese Drill Pipe: The US Commerce Department Tuesday set preliminary duties on imports of $119.2 million drill pipe from China. The department said in a statement that it "determined that Chinese exporters of drill pipe have received countervailable subsidies of 15.72 percent”. Based on these rates, the department will instruct US Customs and Border Protection to collect a cash deposit or bond.

The department said that it will make its final determination in August.

Agricultural Bank of China's Share Plan Approved: Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) has been given the go-ahead by Chinese regulators for what could be the world's largest share flotation. China's securities regulators Wednesday approved the initial public offering as the lender finalized preparations for its dual listing in Shanghai and Hong Kong.

ABC plans to sell up to 22.24 billion A-shares on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and up to 25.41 billion shares in Hong Kong.

However, analysts cannot agree on the likely amount Agbank will raise. It is considered the weakest of China's "big four" banks because its main customer base is within China's poorer rural communities. The offer is also complicated by the continuing uncertainly in global financial markets.

Natural disasters kill 157 in China in May: Natural disasters in China in May left 157 people dead and 22 missing, and caused about 45.17 billion yuan ($6.61 billion) in direct economic losses, the Ministry of Civil Affairs said on Wednesday.

Disasters, including floods, storms, landslides, droughts, snowfalls, freezing temperatures, and earthquakes, caused the evacuation of 842,000 residents and affected the lives of more than 64.57 million people, the ministry said in a statement on its website. Natural disasters hit 5.17 million hectares of farmland in May, destroying about 956,000 hectares of crops.

The damage caused by natural disasters in May was much more severe than in previous years. Yunnan, Guizhou, Hunan, Jiangxi, Guangdong and Chongqing were the provincial-level regions worst hit.

Shenzhen to Raise Minimum Wage: The minimum wage in Shenzhen City in south China's Guangdong Province will increase in July by 10 percent to 1,100 yuan per month ($161.04), municipal authorities said Wednesday.

"The pay rise will increase costs for labor-intensive companies, but I hope those companies will take this as an opportunity to speed up their technological innovation and industrial upgrading to boost their competitiveness," said Wang Min, head of the city's Human Resources and Social Security Bureau.

Shenzhen's move comes after a series of pay rises in China. Beijing will increase its minimum wage by 20 percent to 960 yuan from July 1.

The most dramatic rise has been at Foxconn, an IT contract manufacturer which will raise salaries for assembly workers at its production base in Shenzhen by 66 percent to 2,000 yuan per month from October 1.

Google agrees not to collect Wi-Fi data in Hong Kong: Google has ceased operating its Street View cars in Hong Kong and undertaken that, when the cars recommence driving, they will not collect Wi-Fi data, Hong Kong's   Privacy Commissioner for Personal Data said on Tuesday.

Google has agreed to provide the Commissioner access to the payload data collected by the Street View cars and shall render such assistance as may be required to facilitate the Commissioner's understanding of the process of the collection and the interpretation of such data.

In the meantime, Google shall securely store the data, including any backup, archives, or copies and shall not tamper with same or allow anyone to have unauthorized use or access which may contravene the laws of Hong Kong. Google has also assured to completely delete the payload data at the direction of the Commissioner and to provide the Commissioner with an independent third party's verification of the deletion.
Thursday
Jun102010

Iran Urgent: Mousavi-Karroubi Statement on 12 June Protest (10 June)

From the Facebook page of Zahra Rahnavard, activist and Mir Hossein Mousavi's wife:

In the name of God, the Compassionate and the Merciful

The informed and vigilant people of Iran

The informed and conscientious presence and participation of you at polling stations of the 10th Presidential election last year, taking advantage of the right to vote..., was a great move and an everlasting epic.  It would have returned the country’s future path from the dreadful downhill, in which it was captive and today has become more obvious, to a bright future and the climax of prosperity that the great nation of Iran deserves.

Unfortunately tainted hands falsified your pure votes, and the results were announced in such a way that shocked everyone and initiated the unified protests of you informed people to get back your lost right. However, it was a sadness that your peaceful presence and rallies, instead of being heard and paid attention to, were suppressed and your forever glorious nation paid dearly over the past year to get back your stolen right.

Your great and unforgettable rally on 25 Khordaad (15 June) of last year is the evidence of the truth that even passage of time cannot reduce its value. The justified expectations of you dear people prompted us to request to have a rally for the anniversary of the unforgettable day of 22 Khordaad (12 June, the anniversary of the 2009 Presidential election)...to follow up on the justified demands of a prosperous nation that, despite all suppressions, did not wash its hands from peaceful ways and hopefully seeks a bright future for its county and the country of its children.

Based on Article 27 of the Islamic Republic’s Constitution that clearly states the unconditional right of the people to hold [peaceful] protests and demonstrations, and to prevent tension, while not giving any excuses to the repressors and providing safety and security of the people, we also handed in the letter of request for a permit to hold a demonstration on the anniversary of epic 22 Khordaad (12 June) from Imam Hossein Square to Azadi Square. [We gave this] to the office of the Governor of Tehran and the Interior Ministry in a timely manner but unfortunately, with endless made-up excuses, this request has remained unanswered.

Therefore a number of reformist parties and groups, to eliminate the made-up excuses, handed in a similar request to the Interior Ministry. The final answer of the Interior Ministry to this request has been stated in the latest letter of the representatives of reformist parties, who have announced that they have no hope to obtain any permit from this administration.

Now that there is only 48 hours left to the time planned for the demonstration, considering the report of the representatives of reformist parties and for the safety of the people, we are announcing that the planned demonstration will not be held. It is obvious that, with the dark history of the past year in repressing the protesters whose only crime was to demand their vote in a peaceful manner and with reportsindicating that once again hardliners and repressors are being organized to attack the defenceless and innocent people, we must ask the people and the protesters to follow up on their rightful demands and requests through less costly and more effective methods.

It is self-deceptive and naive to believe that in [the Government's] artillery with all the threats, insults, and lies, [it was] able to repress and subjugate people’s protest movement. Despite the deafening claims of the so-called national TV and Radio stations and the pro-government press giving the impression that the protesting forces of the Iranian people’s movement has diminished, the very same individuals involved in these claims --- as well as the policymakers --- more than anyone realise this fact that the movement is alive. The true honour belongs to those who, despite all the threats, dangers, and insecurities and knowing the potential life-threatening and financial consequences, still have not given up on their rightful protest. Even their simple announcement of demonstration makes the repressors shiver from fear with their wide-scale and comprehensive security and police mobilization. This is the tradition of an illegitimate government that does not give a permit to hold demonstrations to anyone but to their own supporters.

The path that you, the great nation of Iran, have chosen cannot be blocked, and you will brighten your role in this path with creativity.  We also in all aspects, until the emergence of the bright morning of tomorrow,=will be with you and will accompany you.

Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi

June 10, 2010
Thursday
Jun102010

The Latest from Iran (10 June): Mousavi-Karroubi Withdraw Request to March

1950 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Iran Focus reports that activist Mehdi Farahi Shandiz was detained on Wednesday.

1900 GMT: Tonight's Rooftop "Allahu Akbar" (God is Great) and "Marg Bar Dictator" (Death to the Dictator) Chants:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqqqbdY0Yso[/youtube]

NEW Iran Urgent: Mousavi-Karroubi Statement on 22 Khordaad Protest (10 June)
NEW Iran Interview: Ahmad Batebi “People’s Movement Will Stay Alive with Knowledge and Information”
NEW Iran Document: Karroubi “In the End, the Wiser Ones Will Take Over Iran” (9 June)
Latest Iran Video: Obama Statement on Sanctions…and Rights (9 June)
Iran Analysis: What’s Most Important Today? (Hint: Not Sanctions)
Iran Analysis: 4 June “The Day the Regime Will Regret” (Verde)
The Latest from Iran (9 June): Paying Attention


[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zj3IAX369J0&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

1450 GMT: We have posted the English text of the Mousavi-Karroubi statement.

Dissected News evaluates:

"One way to look at this move by Moussavi and Karroubi is that they did the only thing they could. Neither leader can risk being arrested and having no legitimate and legal means to pursue reform. As was alluded to in the official statement, if large numbers of protesters show up for a rally that has been called off, it will appear as though the Green Movement is larger than its public leadership (this is true, anyway). If few numbers show up, then the Green Movement will still be able to say that the absence of large numbers was due to the backing off of the leaders of the movement."

1355 GMT: 22 Khordaad. Agence France Presse have picked up on the Mousavi-Karroubi statement, "Iran opposition leaders call off demos for vote anniversary".

1340 GMT: It's Official: Green Movement Bigger Threat than Saddam. The head of the Revolutionary Guard, General Mohammad Ali Jafari has pronounced, "Although last year's sedition did not last more than around eight months, it was much more dangerous than the imposed war which Saddam began against us through the support of the international community."

Jafari continued, "Because of the grace of God and the prophet-like guidance of the supreme leader and people's vigilance, we put this bitter incident behind us and the enemies found out the revolution cannot be diverted through these methods."

1230 GMT: New Mousavi-Karroubi Statement. As we still await the final word from the Ministry of Interior on requests for permits to march on 12 June, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have issued another statement, via both Karrroubi's Saham News and Mousavi's Kalemeh. In view of the threat to people's safety, they are withdrawing their request to march; however, they note the turnout on 25 Khordaad (15 June) last year, which was also in an "undeclared" protest. They continue, "In the great nation of Iran, it is not possible to block people on the way they have chosen and their creative role in making this path will appear....It is simplistic to think you can suppress the opposition with lies, threats, and humiliation."

1000 GMT: 22 Khordaad MediaFail. Reuters puts in an early candidate for worst pre-12 June "analysis": "Iran's Reformers Discouraged a Year after Vote".

On the basis of interviews with four --- count 'em, four --- Iranians, the comment of a political scientist, and an absence of any consideration of the latest developments in the political situation, the article assures us, "A year after Iran's disputed presidential vote, hardliners are firmly back in charge of a country where economic challenges and the nuclear dispute with the West now loom larger than a once-vibrant reform movement."

0843 GMT: Labour Front. Peyke Iran claims Saeed Torabian, the spokesman for Tehran bus workers, has been assaulted at home and taken away by security forces.

0839 GMT: Blood Money Will Make It All Go Away. Fereshteh Ghazi, speaking with the families of those killed in the post-election crisis reports: "Rather than conducting investigations to identify those who ordered and carried out the murder of protesters, the Iranian government has been pressuring the families of murdered protesters to forego holding memorials for their loved ones. One family member was told that “because the murderer was not identified, the case has been sent to the implementation division for payment of blood money from the public budget.”

0835 GMT: The Detained Journalists. More information on the status of imprisoned reporters and editors: a new list from the Committee to Protect Journalists has 37 currently imprisoned, but Reporters and Human Rights Activists of Iran counts 47 in jail, e.g.. Sousan Mohammadkhani Ghiasvand from Kurdistan, who does not appear on the CPJ list.

0830 GMT: A Solution. Rah-e-Sabz posts a long analysis from the Council of National-Religious Activists and its suggestion of five ways out of the crisis: 1) a free and protected rally on 22 Khordaad/12 June; 2) release of political prisoners and an end to executions; 3) restoring the political freedoms laid down in Constitution to the Iranian people, especially freedom of assembly, speech, and media; 4) an end to restrictions on political parties, non-governmental organisations and human rights organisations; 5) correction of election laws and free elections under impartial supervision.

0820 GMT: Larijani v. Ahmadinejad. Despite the attempts by the Supreme Leader to referee the Parliament's dispute with the President, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani presses on. At a lecture, Larijani warned, "If legislative and judiciary branches become subordinated to executive branch, it might accelerate the process of following [the President's] plans. But it would lead to dictatorship." Larijani continued, playing up to Ayatollah Khamenei and putting down Ahmadinejad:
Centralization of the Supreme leader's power won't lead to corruption since the leader should possess special qualifications which are not taken into account when the parliament speaker and the president are elected. Therefore the executive branch must adhere to the laws defining its authority. The government is not allowed to interfere with the duties of the legislative branch and disagree what passed by the Majlis.

Khabar Online also features the statement of Larijani ally, MP Ahmad Tavakoli: "Although in observing the bills, the Majlis may not be flawless, the government is not authorized to disobey the laws ratified by the legislative branch. Even if the statesmen believe that a law can not be executed, they should formally request the Majlis to revoke that and help the lawmakers to ratify the bills with the least amount of mistakes."

0815 GMT: 4 June Follow-Up "The Shadow Man". Earlier this week, Mohammad Ali Ansari, the coordinator of the commemoration for Ayatollah Khomeini last Friday, wrote Seyed Hassan Khomeini about the disruption of the event with the heckling of Hassan Khomeini's speech. Ansari mentioned, amidst discussion of possible organisation of the sabotage, a "Commander Vahid".

Rooz Online does some investigating to find out who Commander Vahid is and how he might be connected to the Supreme Leader.

0733 GMT: 22 Khordaad. The number of cities around the world holding rallies on 12 June is now 79.

0723 GMT: Rafsanjani Trashes the Election (and Criticises the Supreme Leader)? Yesterday we passed on reports that the office of Hashemi Rafsanjani had put out a tough letter denouncing President Ahmadinejad's behaviour over the election and challenging Ayatollah Khamenei for remaining silent on the issue.

We've had a look at the letter on Rafsanjani's website and, despite the former President's normal caution, it seems quite challenging. Could it be that Rafsanjani, just before 22 Khordaad (12 June), is going to make a public stand against the President --- and ask the Supreme Leader to make a stand as well?

0720 GMT: Hanging Judges. Omid Memarian profiles "hardline" judges --- Abolghasem Salavati, Mohammad Moghiseh, and Pir-Abbasi --- of the Revolutionary Court.

0710 GMT: Winning With Information. We have posted an interview with activist Ahmad Batebi, "The People's Movement Will Stay Alive with Knowledge and Information".

0625 GMT: Larijani Strikes A Nuclear Pose. He may be at odds with President Ahmadinejad on political issues, but Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani is making sure he's alongside the Government in defiance of the latest UN sanctions on Iran's nuclear programme.

Larijani said at a press conference, "We are regretful that the US is playing a naive game in New York these days," adding that this game was being led by the "Zionist lobby".
0615 GMT: No More Nedas? Rumour of the day comes from The New York Times, citing a pro-Government website:
A factory in Iran has been closed down after trying to mass produce statuettes of people who were killed in the protests that followed last year’s disputed presidential election, among them, Neda Agha-Soltan....

The pro-government Aty News Web site, reported on Wednesday that the factory, located in the eastern province of Semnan, was shuttered after just one month, though officials denied the closure.

The Web site....also states that the factory’s 40 female employees were discovered working without hejabs...and that they were mixing freely with the male members of the staff.

0545 GMT: 22 Khordaad. Yet another invitation to show up on 12 June comes from the students of Azad University of Tehran.

0530 GMT: First, a reminder of Iran just over 48 hours before the anniversary of the elections --- last night's rooftop Allahu Akhbars (God is Great):

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B073FkNZdDQ&playnext_from=TL&videos=4udYKWS5xNc[/youtube]

We have also posted yet another interview by Mehdi Karroubi in the run-up to 12 June. He reviews the development of Iran from the Revolution to today and, despite much pessimism, asserts, "In The End, The Wiser Ones Will Take Over Iran".

Of course, the headline story in non-Iranian media is yesterday's UN Security Council resolution for a new set of sanctions on Tehran. Even that, however, could not completely escape the internal situation in Iran: we have posted the video of President Obama's comments, with his reference to the "repression" of the Iranian people, and a snap analysis in yesterday's updates.

Dave Siavashi of Iran News Now evaluates the developments and puts out this warning: "The sanctions lend an air of legitimacy to the regime’s claim that nefarious outside forces, or Doshman (the all encompassing enemy), as [Ayatollah] Khamenei likes to refer to them, have it in for Iran; thereby giving the hardcore Islamist radicals of the regime a pretext and excuse for continued harsh repression of the opposition."
Thursday
Jun102010

Gaza Latest: What Will Be Done About the Blockade? (Not Much. Care for an Israeli Snack Food?)

As the clash over the Freedom Flotilla recedes into the past, if not memory, the question arises: will anything be done about the Israeli blockade on Gaza?

Well, reading the signals, the provisional answer is...a shrug of the shoulders.

One possibility for a move forward might have been yesterday's meeting between President Barack Obama and Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas but --- at least publicly --- there was little of substance on Gaza.

Obama did lead with, "Not only is the status quo with respect to Gaza unsustainable," but that was only the set-up to slide to other areas: "The status quo with respect to the Middle East is unsustainable."

Gaza Flotilla Latest (8 June): The Battle over the Blockade


The President's priority? Not the blockade or even Gaza, but getting back to the Israel-Palestine (West Bank) talks: "It is time for us to go ahead, move forward on a two-state solution." He called for a limit on construction of Israeli settlements in the West Bank, and his announcement of $400 million in aid for Palestinians (of which only $70 million is "new" money) is also of no consequence for Gaza. Given the US ostracism of Hamas, the aid is effectively more support for the Palestinian Authority and the West Bank.

Back to the rhetoric: Obama continued his balancing act, offering sugar-coated words of care for Gazans but effectively saying there will be no immediate moves on the Israeli blockade:
We, and I think President Abbas agrees with this, recognize that Israel should not have missiles flying out of Gaza into its territories. And so there should be a means by which we are able to stop the flow of arms that could endanger Israel’s security.

At the same time we’re doing so in a way that allows the people in Gaza to live out their aspirations and their dreams both for themselves and their children. And that’s something that we’re going to spend a lot of time focusing on, and we’ve already begun some hardheaded discussions with the Israelis in achieving that.



Meanwhile, on the border, the public-relations effort over the blockade reached the level of the darkly humourous, with Israel announcing a relaxation of the blockade to permit "soda, juice, jam, spices, shaving cream, potato chips, cookies and candy" to pass.

This was in no way, however, to be construed as a concession in light of the Freedom Flotilla incident. Israeli defense officials maintained, “We will not allow everything in, since [detained soldier] Gilad Shalit is still held in Gaza and Hamas is still attacking us.”

(The "Fake Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs" offered the sharpest assessment of these developments with this announcement on Twitter: "Humanitarian Situation --- IDF [[Israel Defense Force] transferred 3 bags of potato chips, a diet coke and 6 cherry tomatoes through Keren Shalom crossing into Gaza.)

In Tel Aviv, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was defining the limits not only on imports to Gaza but on an investigation of the Flotilla attack: "Israeli commandos involved in the raid will face IDF  investigators only and will not be subject to any outside probe."
Thursday
Jun102010

Iran Interview: Ahmad Batebi "People’s Movement Will Stay Alive with Knowledge and Information"

A discussion with activist Ahmad Batebi in Washington DC:

Persian2English: To what extent has the Freedom movement in Iran been successful in attracting the Iranian population that supports the government and/or the regime?

Ahmad Batebi: In Iran, there are two groups of people with connections to the government: those who ideologically believe in the system and those who receive benefits and monetary compensation. The former group, who is either brainwashed or is a supporter through family ties, would not join the Green Movement even if they were dissatisfied with the government. They would rather opt for political apathy and inaction. The latter group, however, will join the movement, if their funding is cut. Albeit, they join only as a number. Their effect is minimal.

P2E: Leading to the 1979 Revolution, Iranians living in remote areas were informed of Ayatollah Khomeini’s speeches and revolutionary ideas, even though Internet and satellite did not exist back then. Clerics visited rural areas and preached similarly to the way we receive information via technology. However, today, a lack of independent media creates a gap that is controlled by the Iranian regime. What are the challenges associated with information-spreading and how do we overcome state censorship?



Batebi: The recent political history of other countries demonstrate that a social network is the most effective way to inform and educate. For example, four students can gather in a cafe and share news with each other who will share with the people around them (and then it is passed on to others). The clerics during the 1979 Revolution used these mechanisms of social networking. And yes, now, even though the media is much more abundant, it is censored.

We have to consider the censorship of the Iranian government as ineffective. Censorship exists through satellite (based mainly abroad) and domestic media and on the Internet. Inside Iran, not much can be done about censorship. It is impossible to run a newspaper without it being subject to state censorship. However, the Iranian expatriates can put pressure on foreign governments to facilitate the Iranian people’s access to the mediums of information (i.e., the Internet).

It does not mean each one of us has to set up a media and have people listen to or read it. We should provide people with proxies, anti-filtering software, and VPN so they can choose to access whatever they wish.





P2E: It appears that in the wake of the brutal and widespread crackdown of the June 2009 election protests, a wave of disappointment, pessimism, and lethargy has prevailed over the Iranian society. Persistence of this wave can result in missing a historical opportunity to be on the path to democracy. What approaches do you suggest for revitalizing the hope of society in addition to their drive and enthusiasm? What role can the Iranian Diaspora play in this regard?

Batebi: If any social movement does not achieve its goals in a limited period of time, then its government will become immune to the effects. Consider the student uprising in the summer of 1999. The city was in the hands of protesters for nearly a week. Then, [the regime] cracked down and the uprising cooled off. A few years passed and no action was possible, even on the anniversary of the uprising. This is the case for the Green Movement too: the protests did not blossom because the regime is immune.

Now, what can be done?

We have to consider three issues:

First, we should analyze the environment of the movement. What feeds it? What does its survival depend on? [The answer is] information and knowledge. For example, if the citizens of Tehran don’t realize that people in Tabriz protested the day before, or if Iranians don’t receive messages by leaders like Karroubi or Moussavi, or if they are not informed of the protests that occur outside the UN buildings against Ahmadinejad, then they will continue to go on with their daily lives. This is how the regime stifles the flow of information.

On the other hand, we should remember that the Iranian people are dealing with economic difficulties. They have to fight against the regime and put food on the table at the same time. That is a lot of pressure. Outside Iran, we go to work in the morning and come back in the afternoon to devote our time to the Iranian freedom movement. That is our main concern. However, in Iran, people need to fight against the regime and struggle to make ends meet. they are under much more pressure.

Second, we should create a ground so that the flow of information and knowledge remains constant in society. Second, we have to raise the price the government has to pay for committing human rights violations. In other words, the Islamic Republic should not dare to throw people into prison so easily. We have to establish a strong information network to spread the news of our compatriots from inside to the world.

Third, we have to take new measures such as boycotting any interests the coup d’état government has abroad, similar to the FAO [UN Food and Agricultural Organization] conference in Italy where Ahmadinejad and [Zimbabwe President Robert] Mugabe were not invited to the official dinner ceremony. We also need to stop Khatam-ol Anbia, an (engineering) firm controlled by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, from gaining their interests. This action needs to be taken by Iranians inside Iran.

We should have news regarding Iran in foreign media everyday and thereby influence foreign governments. We have to keep the people of our host countries updated on Iran’s main issues. When people are informed, they urge the media and politicians (to spread the news) and then governments are forced to react. That is how we can achieve a global consensus [in support of the movement].





P2E: In the wake of the election, many people became active in the process of information-spreading. What are your thoughts on this? Are activists doing enough work or should more be done?

Batebi: Spreading the news and informing is different from engaging in serious activities. Sometimes, you write a news piece or you translate it or you upload it on a website. On a scale of 1 to 100, these effort combined are worth 40. We have to achieve 100.





P2E: How?

Batebi: We should have someone in the media who we keep informed [about Iran's news] and who is invited to Iranian events and discussions. We have to force this person to listen. We need to provide this person with the most accurate news for publication. Informing and spreading the news is only part of the job. It is more complicated to oblige the media to cover the news and to take a stance.





P2E: The Iranian people’s opposition to the Islamic Republic is not new. However, after the 2009 election, more people got involved inside and outside Iran. Will you comment on the Green Movement? What is this movement after all? Do you agree with the term “green”? If so, what does Green mean to you?

Batebi: Traditionally, we have always had opposition outside Iran. This opposition was either monarchist, or leftist and socialist, Mujahedin (MKO), or it had ties with the National Front. This is the traditional composition of Iran’s opposition movement, and the nature of their operations is clear-cut.  However, from a logical point of view, our work is useful when it is effective. It is true that there has always been opposition to the regime, but how successful has it been? Has the (traditional) opposition been able to do anything in Iran?  They have not. Their work and conduct has not been right. Their efforts are acknowledged, because they have worked hard, but it has been ineffective. People see and understand this. Moreover, people who are in Iran have a different way of expressing their demands because they are limited, thus their ways of expression are different than the traditional opposition.

During the 1997 Iranian presidential election, many people voted for [Mohammad] Khatami. This vote did not mean that we accepted Khatami and his mode of thought and we believed in his clerical attire. I voted for Khatami. This does not  mean I defended his thoughts or even the reformist movement. The vote was to send a message to the ruling establishment that we want something different than them.

The people’s demands for a civil society that embodies freedom of expression, equality between genders, the rights of children, labour unions, and students was not realized. And with the arrival of Ahmadinejad, the situation deteriorated. Then came the 2009 election where [MIr Hossein] Mousavi (who has a revolutionary background and has worked closely with Ayatollah Khomeini) and [Mehdi] Karroubi (who is in the same boat) were candidates. People voted for them. Again, this did not mean that they accepted Mousavi’s statements and beliefs. People are saying that we do not want what the regime wants, we will go and vote for somebody who is saying something different.

Now, an opposition has formed that has a different structure than the traditional opposition. They are all opposition but they have different forms. And now the Green Movement opposition….

Let me talk about  "green” first.

During the electoral campaign, each candidate camp chose a colour. Yellow was for Ahmadinejad, red was for Karroubi,  and green was for Mousavi.  Since the supporters of Mousavi were greater in number, green became the colour of the opposition movement. We do not necessarily agree with everything, but the Green movement possesses distinct characteristics that is also supported by Khatami, Karroubi, and Mousavi, such as encompassing  all people under its umbrella.

You look and see people in the Green Movement who are secular and some who are religious. They all say, “We don’t want this regime, we want human rights, we want equality between men and women.” It is the first time such a thing has happened. All social movements gradually reach this point.

Now, there are distinguished personalities in the movement like Karroubi and Mousavi who have the ability to mobilize people. Some consider them the leaders, others don’t. I believe they are leaders but just as much as the people. For example, when Karroubi announces that  people should take part in the anniversary of the June 12th election, he is displaying leadership. However, people are taking the lead too.  For example, on Ashura (27 December), nobody called out for the people to come out, but they took to the streets and protested. Thus, everyone is a leader, because everyone is carrying out his or her duties.





P2E: If the Green Movement is defined through Mousavi and Karroubi, then does the Green movement want the Islamic Republic? Some activists oppose green for this reason and opt for the term “people’s movement” instead. Noticeably, the difference in name for the opposition has resulted in a divide within the opposition, even though the main goals seem to be similar. What can we do to eliminate this (divide)?

Batebi: People think that the “Green Movement” and the “People’s movement” are different, but they are the same. You have a democratic movement when a “Green” supporter and a “People’s movement” supporter are classified in the same group. The vitality of the movement depends on these people communicating and finding common ground.

I think if the Islamic Republic is removed, it will be disastrous because we have nothing to offer. Not Mousavi and Karroubi, nor the opposition outside Iran can form a government. They can argue and fight and try to find common ground.

We only have one movement and that is the People’s Movement. Some say they are green, some say they are leftists, and some are monarchists or Mujaheds. We cannot have a successful government without participation from all fractions. For example, the Greens should understand that they are not the only “Greens” since all people are included.

By the way, the Green debate mostly occurs outside Iran. When security forces shoot at crowds in Iran and everybody is running away, no one is thinking, “You’re Mujahedin, therefore I will not run away with you.” When someone is shot by a bullet and falls to the ground, people don’t say, “You’re a communist so we won’t help you.” These are the preoccupations of Iranians living outside the country.

We have to think like people inside Iran. For people there, it is not important what our fights are about. People who say we are Green and the movement belongs to “us” just want to distinguish themselves from the traditional opposition. This is wrong. In tomorrow`s Iran, everybody, including Hizbollah members, have the right to form political parties and run for election. If people vote for them, they will be elected. This is democracy!

In order to have a successful movement, it is important to remember that the colour green does not just belong to (the opposition leaders). Mousavi states that we are successful and the movement is alive only when all opposition (parties) are included in the movement.