Saturday
Jun122010
Iran Analysis: 22 Khordaad --- What Happened and What It Means (Shahryar)
Saturday, June 12, 2010 at 20:23 
The people of Iran today yet again proved that intimidation, imprisonment, torture, rapes, shootings and deaths were not going to deter them from continuing to oppose the Islamic Republic’s brutality and unjust policies. In that sense, it was a clear victory for the Green Movement. They managed to land people on the streets on the day that they wanted and the government –-- even though it employed thousands of security forces –-- was unable to stop them. This is despite the fact that opposition leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi had cancelled the plans for the protest.The reason for the success? It is likely that the protesters caught the government off-guard and showed incredible resillience. Instead of publicizing their intentions of protesting or declaring their routes of procession beforehand, they quietly let the government feel like they were not going to show up. Then they did.
Latest Iran Video: Protests of 22 Khordaad (12 June)
The Latest from Iran (12 June): 22 Khordaad
Through my sources, I can fully confirm protests in the city of Tehran. I have partial confirmation of protests in Shiraz, Mashaad, Isfahan, and Zahedan. Reports of protests have come in for Tabriz, Sari, Kerman, Sanandaj, Ahvaz and Aryashahr, but I have not been able to confirm any of them yet.
What is clear is that in Tehran people took to streets after 4 p.m. for protests in different parts of the city. The students of Tehran University staged a gathering with anti-government chants and the popular slogan, “The student dies but does not accept humiliation!”
Security forces clashed with the protesters and arrested at least six students. Tear gas was fired at protesters. There were also unconfirmed reports of shots, though no claims of injuries from gunfire. Students were injured, though, when they were beaten with batons, kicked, and punched by riot police and plainclothesmen who had surrounded the campus.
A second group of protesters tried to converge from different parts of Tehran upon the university to try and break the siege, but security forces managed to hold them back by blocking major streets with thousands of policemen, riot police, and plainclothesmen.
Other groups formed at Vali-e Asr Square where at least three were arrested and several were injured in clashes with security forces. Tear gas was used, as well as at Vanak Square where more protesters gathered and chanted “Death to the Dictator” and “Death to Khamenei”. (no reports of arrests confirmed as of yet from there). At the same time, students at Sharif University gathered inside their campus and chanted “Ya Hossein; Mir Hossein” and “Allah o Akbar” but were prevented from coming out by security forces.
By far the bloodiest clashes took place in Enghelab Square, which --- with adjoining streets --- was filled by at least 5,000 members of Iran’s security forces. At least 12 protesters were detained.
People also managed to gather in Taleghani Square, Palestine Square, Ferdowsi Square, Hafez Bridge, Laleh Park, Argentine Park and other areas. So far, the confirmed number of arrests stands at 21, but the actual number is almost certainly higher.
Due to the small numbers of videos available, the estimated number of protesters is anyone’s guess. However, it looks like today the streets had at least 10,000 security forces patrolling them, though I cannot confirm this number I can confirm.
There were two unconfirmed reports that merit a mention. The first one claimed that shots were heard from the government-owned broadcasting agency IRIB and that several of its staff members were held hostage by security forces inside the building. The second report claimed that some protesters had managed to break into security forces’ vehicles and managed to take their helmets and other equipment.
As for other cities, reports are few and far between. There are no videos of protests in these cities so far, although in the next few hours --- given the pattern from Tehran --- there probably will be.
Considering the fact that the Iranian government had amassed an army of security personnel to stop protesters from gathering, today’s events are a clear sign that the government is failing, as it has failed in the past, to quell the uprising. Whether the future holds more victories for the government or the Green Movement is as yet uncertain, but protesters returning from gatherings in Tehran were very optimistic and cheerful. Some indicated on blogs that it was a “great day” while others called it “the day we learned that we really are countless.”
So although a lot is still not certain today, there is one certainty. The successful protests, despite the government’s pressure, is going to give a strong morale boost to the Green Movement and is likely to make another dent in the cracking walls of the Islamic Republic.
Reader Comments (16)
[...] Josh Shahryar’s analysis and Enduring America’s videos. [...]
[...] Mehr Veröffentlicht in News, Vor Ort. Kommentar schreiben » [...]
[...] What Happened and What it Means Iran Analysis: 22 Khordaad — What Happened and What It Means (Shahryar) | Enduring America [...]
Josh,
I heard an eyewitness account of an elderly man being shot in Hafez Square in Tehran. He was taken away, no report on his condition. The eyewitness also stated that the man appeared to be a passerby.
This was truly a victory for people that showed they did not need any Islamic Republic old guard to tell them and lead them to stand against tyranny. People showed they need no permission or permit to demand their rights.
This was also a shout to Mousavi and Karroubi reminding them of this simple chant that echoed across streets of Tehran on the day of bloody Ashora; “Mousavi Bahanas, Kole Nezam Neshanes” meaning Mousavi is an excuse, our target is regime.
No matter what happens, there is always a Green analyst who says, "it was a clear victory for the Green Movement. "
[...] Iran Analysis: 22 Khordaad — What Happened and What It Means … [...]
The protesters MUST stop protesting on either previously announced days - or days when they would be expected to protest ( like this Anniversary day). They should select an insignificant day - spread the word silently and strike when the Regime does not expect it. Guerilla tactics have always worked better against a regular Force.
Barry
Actually, I'd thought by withdrawing their request, - whether intended or not - was a feigning move.
Also, learning from the mistakes of broadcasting the plans.
There can be NO accounting of events, and the relative success thereof, without factoring in security forces. - Something our Basiji friends seem to take absolute GLEE in.
[...] Und natürlich Enduring America, unter anderem hier: http://enduringamerica.com/2010/06/12/iran-analysis-22-khordaad-what-happened-and-what-it-means-shah... [...]
Read the detailedaccount of a professor at a university in Tehran who, responding to a request by Prof. Sahimi of Tehran Bureau, followed the original route of the cancelled protest march and observed everything she could from shortly after lunchtime until arriving home at 8.15 pm.
Scroll down the page to 'My Day in Tehran on the Anniversary of the Election'
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2010/06/selected-headlines-180.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranb...
RE your earlier comments about wishing the GM would change tactics, Karim Sadjadpour said this in an inteview with NPR:
" ... there is an adage from American politics that candidates campaign in poetry and they must govern in prose. And I think this is the challenge that the opposition faces. They need to start agitating in prose rather than poetry. So I think the opposition leadership of the green movement is going to have to do a better job articulating to working-class Iranians - you know, again to borrow from the 2008 U.S. presidential elections - they're going to have to start talking to Mohammed the plumber in Tehran and making it clear to Mohammed the plumber why a green Iran would be in his interest.
So I think what the green movement has to do is then to start targeting the major arteries of the Iranian economy, whether it's major labor unions, transportation unions, bazaar merchants. And in order to do that, I think they have to do a better job articulating to them why they would be better off in a green Iran".
We probably have to learn much of what really happened. Today we heard that as many as 900 were arrested, that beatings were very violent. Yesterday we got the impression that government forces reacted relatively mildly, without shooting & killing. The clear news was that this time many returning protesters were had a good feeling about the day. But was this due to government making mistakes, or protesters having adapted to avoid clashes? The big question is if the movement is growing, making use of other tactics than protest, spreading nationwide in Iran.
With news coming out of Iran so slowly, it will be worthwhile to revisit these analyses in a week or so, while the next special days are coming up to distract us from what happened today.
I wish Iran all the best, but it looks like from outside we can neither influence much, nor really help, and even getting out the actual facts is really difficult. We can keep trying though, and give our moral support.
We CAN influence from abroad! By simply showing our support and making it clear for the Green Movement inside of Iran that there are plenty of people outside the country that support their ambition, we can give them strength and confidence to continue their struggle! This fact should not be underestimated! So many people that recently left Iran has confirmed this, saying that the support from abroad strengthened their will to go on during the most intense days of resistance! By attacking the regime from both sides this movement can gain success. For example, the event that took place in the EU-parliament during Mottakis visit is a great way to approach this as a non-Iranian. If these acts continue the world leaders will realize that they can't go on ignoring the fact that this regime are brutal killers and a threat to democracy and Human Rights! Do everything you can (big or small! to support the Iranian people because in the end EVERY effort will count!
[...] to my associate Josh Shahryar, “People also managed to gather in Taleghani Square, Palestine Square, Ferdowsi Square, Hafez [...]
Ali, to me this was a truely meaningless comment!
1. Of course there will always be one/several analyst(s) who says the above mentioned, simply because there are many people interested in what's happening in Iran and naturally they tend to have different views on the situation.
2. In difficult times like the one the people of Iran are going through today, specially when they're not receiving any help from outside, the kind of comment you made here only serves to discourage people.
Let's move together towards a brighter future, free from this oppresive regime.
Best Regards,
Ali