The Latest from Iran (22 June): Waiting for the Next Move

The Latest from Iran (23 June): Preparing for Thursday

Iran: 2+2 = A Breakthrough? (Mousavi and the Clerics)
Iran: Detained Iranian Politicians and Journalists
Iran: Who was "Neda"?
Iran: The “Mousavi Revolutionary Manifesto” for Change (Gary Sick)
The Latest from Iran (21 June): Does the Fight Continue?
LATEST Video: The “Neda” Protests (20-21 June)

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2300 GMT: It's on....Mir Hossein Mousavi's Facebook site put out the news this evening, "There will be another peaceful demonstration in Tehran to honor the martyrs on Thursday. Please Update us with your 'Solidarity' Events around the globe on Thursday."

There will now be a 60-hour cat-and-mouse game between the protest movement and the Government. Iran State-run media had already spread the message from the Revolutionary Guards, warning demonstrators not to take to the streets Tuesday. That is now superseded by preparations for Thursday, as we predicted in a separate entry earlier today: Mousavi is declaring that he will announce the march route for Thursday much closer to the time, thus limiting the Government's ability to react.

The latest news overtakes the Government's pseudo-concession earlier in the evening. Press TV repeated the news that Guardian Council and Ministry of the Interior would conduct a box-by-box vote recount, but those same bodies added that no one should expect that this would change the results.

2100 GMT: Mousavi supporters say a general strike is to take place in Iran on Tuesday.

1920 GMT: We have now posted a special snap analysis of today's possibly significant breakthrough from talks between Mir Hossein Mousavi and senior clerics.

1910 GMT: State-run media is reporting that the Ministry of the Interior will carry out a box-by-box vote recount.

Lara Setrakian of ABC News (US) reports that demos continue across Tehran. Paramilitary Basiji are stopping any group of 2 or more people and shooting at "suspects" with paintballs to identify who has been in protests. "God is great" is ringing out from the rooftops of Tehran. Tehran Bureau adds that Basiji are stopping cars and confiscating any cameras, taking the ID cards of the owners.

1810 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi has now posted his appeal to the Guardian Council.

1720 GMT: Claims on Twitter that Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi will address a "silent, civil rally" in Tehran on Thursday. Karroubi has also reportedly urged the Guardian Council to annul the Presidential vote instead of wasting time.

1520 GMT: Al Jazeera English's Alireza Ronaghi reports "small gatherings" in a small park near 7 Tir Square with "far too many" security personnel for an ordinary afternoon. "On every important crossroad and...traffic bridges, we saw security forces and special units of the police standing by....Many of these people are just wearing normal clothes with helmets and shields."

Ronaghi also spoke with a key Ahmadinejad advisor, Alireza Zaker-Esfahani, who said, "I don't think the unrest will last. Iran's history is proof of that....Failure [of Mousavi campaign] always brings dissatisfaction. The emotional conditions will not last." The current problem is "the weakness in Mir Hossein Mousavi's political behaviour, which could help calm public opinion by giving it the right information. Unfortunately he did the opposite."

And the reason for President Ahmadinejad's near-disappearance since last Sunday? Zaker-Esfahani asserted, "If he enters the scene now, he may expose himself to the accusation that he --- as Mousavi might said --- is an accomplice in possible irregularity."

1515 GMT: Neda Agha Soltan's fiancee has confirmed to BBC Persian TV what we reported this morning in a short profile of the woman killed on Saturday by paramilitary Basiji: she was buried quickly yesterday and Iranian authorities prevented any memorial service.

1450 GMT: AP reports that the British government is going to evacuate families of British diplomatic personnel in Iran.

1408 GMT: CNN close to helpless now. They are insisting on calling the quick burial of Neda Agha Soltan and the cancelled memorial service "rumours". (We received verified information on this early this morning.)

1402 GMT: Press TV also headlining, "Iran Confirms First Swine Flu Case". Just waiting for this to be blamed on "Western interference". (The patient is a 16-year-old Iranian resident of the US who was visiting Iran.)

1400 GMT: Reports that Iranian security forces have used tear gas and fired gunshots into the air to disperse the protesters at 7 Tir Square. Press TV continues to lag behind events with the headline that the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) "is ready to crush new riots". The IRGC also hailed the Presidential election as "an epic that disappointed the enemies".

1330 GMT: BNO News now reports clashes in Tehran. The AFP wire now says there are 1000 protesters (the figure of 200 appears to have been an error).

1315 GMT: Twitter's BNO News, citing AFP, report that there are 200 people at the rally in Tehran- not the 1000+ reported by Reuters.

1255 GMT: A new rally appears to be taking place in Tehran, possibly in memory of Neda Soltan. CNN's David Clinch reports on Twitter, "Hundreds of protestors have gathered at Haft-e Tir square in Tehran. Hundreds of Basijis + riot police confronting the crowd". A smaller demonstration is also due to take place at the Iranian embassy in London.


1230 GMT: Reuters reports that the Italian embassy in Tehran is open to wounded protesters.

1150 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi has urged supporters to stage more protests against Ahmadinejad's reelection. Iran has meanwhile accused the BBC and Voice of America of engineering post-election unrest in Iran.

1105 GMT: We have just posted a video which appears to show Neda Soltan minutes before her death.

1055 GMT: Associated Press are reporting that Iran's Revolutionary Guard are threatening to "crush" any further protests. Iranian activists say roadblocks from the north to south of Tehran have been set up to prevent congregation of protesters. The Iranian Parliament (Majlis) is under heavy guard, and all roads and alleyways around the Ministry of the Interior are closed with concrete blocks and guards.

1045 GMT: Has "Neda" become the symbolic key to the movement's next steps? Mir Houssein Mousavi and advisors are making a concerted effort to link image and protest, both on Mousavi's Facebook site and on a special page devoted to Neda Agha Soltan.

1015 GMT: Twitter users report that there will be a candlelit vigil for Neda Soltan this evening from 5  to 7 p.m. in 7 Tir Square, Tehran.

1005 GMT: Press TV's website and TV channel are both currently leading with Iran's condemnation of "foreign interference by certain Western states in the country's internal affairs." Significantly, however, Press TV have also announced that results in the 50 cities where the number of votes cast exceeded the number of eligible voters would not have had an impact on the outcome of the election.


1000 GMT: Press TV has confirmed that the daughter and four other relatives of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani have been released from detention.

1010 GMT: Twitter's PersianKiwi, previously a reliable source of information, believes that Mehdi Karroubi is to publish an announcement today.

0935 GMT: Reuters reports that Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu has said that a change of leadership in Iran could lead to peaceful relations between the two states. "There is no conflict between the Iranian people and the people of Israel and under a different regime the friendly relations that prevailed in the past could be restored," he told the German newspaper Bild. "What we have seen in Iran is a powerful desire on the part of the Iranian people to be free."

0900 GMT: On the BBC's flagship radio programme Today, Jeremy Bowen offered a similar line to that in our Morning Update (0500 GMT): "The opposition has to decide what its next move will be."

0645 GMT: I'm off on academic duties until mid-afternoon. Mike Dunn will keep an eye on the latest news and update. Meanwhile, please keep sending in your information and comments.

0640 GMT: A far-from incidental detail that was lost over the weekend. The spokesman for the Guardian Council admitted to state-run IRIB television that the number of votes collected in 50 cities was more than the number of eligible voters. The total vote concerned is about 3 million.

0630 GMT: The latest phase of the Iranian Government's attack against "Western interference" was just launched by Foreign Ministry spokesman Hassan Qashqavi in his weekly press conference. He was expansive and at times almost agitated in his denuncation, claiming at one point that CNN was posting material on how to conduct "cyber-warfare" against Iran.

The strategy was far from subtle and far from unexpected. What was more interesting was that some of the questions to Qashqavi were challenging, preferring to focus on the details of the Presidential vote rather than American, British, or French meddling. Qashqavi was uneasy at these points, avoiding the questions and returning to his main theme, arguing that there was no interference when the US had its own disputed Presidential election in 2000.

Morning Update 0500 GMT: There is still an uneasy lull in political developments and widespread protests. Press TV is eagerly reporting, "Calm has returned to the streets of the Iranian capital Tehran," with film showing cars moving freely and pedestrians strolling in shopping districts. The violence of Saturday is blamed on protestors "who attacked security forces who tried to disrupt" their march, with "hundreds" arrested (other Iranian state media put the number at 457).

Iranian authorities are trying to choke off the political challenge. They have arrested not only many advisors of Presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi but also five members of former President Rafsanjani's family (although they were later reported to have been released). A large but unknown number of activists and opposition party members have also been detained. Media coverage has been closed off, not only through denial of movement to reporters but arrests of about two dozen journalists.

Mousavi is responding through statements posted on his Facebook site and webpage. Yesterday he declared,""Protesting against lies and fraud (in the election) is your right...In your protests, continue to show restraint. I am expecting armed forces to avoid irreversible damage."

However, to maintain momentum, the challenge to the Government and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad awaits movement on two fronts. Within the higher reaches of the system, Rafsanjani's challenge appears to have been blunted, with senior clerics unwilling to come out openly against the Supreme Council. The Guardian Council is holding the line on the legitimacy of the Presidential vote, and Ali Larijani's call for reforms, which we covered in detail yesterday, will have only limited if any effects.

The second front of mass pressure is also uncertain. There has been talk of a candlelight march this afternoon and of a general strike, but nothing firm has crystallised. At this point, it is more likely that there will be scattered demonstrations today.

This does not mean that the battle is over, only slowed. The symbol of "Neda", the 27-year-old student killed by paramilitary Basiji on Saturday, has spread beyond Iran and around the world. Symbols, however, can only represent change rather than bringing it about. Whether Neda Agha Soltan's death will accompany a long-term movement in Iranian politics and society or will become one of many tragic footnotes to this crisis remains to be seen.

The Latest from Iran (19 June): Speeches and Rallies

Iran: The 7 Lessons of the Supreme Leader’s Address
Iran: Live Blog of Supreme Leader's Address (19 June)
NEW Transcript: Ayatollah Khamenei’s Speech at Prayers (19 June)
NEW Video: Obama Statement on Iran (19 June)
Latest Video: The Protests in and Beyond Tehran
Iran Eyewitness: The Wednesday and Thursday Demonstrations in Tehran
Iran Eyewitness: More Audio from “Alive in Tehran”
Text: Mousavi Speech to Tehran Rally (18 June)

The Latest from Iran (18 June): From Green to "A Sea of Black"

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2003 GMT: From former President Mohammad Khatami's Facebook page: "Please join Mousavi, Khatami and Karoubi tomorrow at 4pm from Enghelab Sq. to Azadi Sq. in Tehran for a crucial green protest."

2000 GMT: We've posted the video of President Obama's latest statement on Iran.

1955 GMT: The US Senate has followed the House of Representatives in a resolution supporting Iranian citizens espousing "the values of freedom".

1940 GMT: Reports that residents in Tehran again took to their rooftops tonight to shout, "God is Great" and "Death to the Dictator", despite the warning in Ayatollah Khamenei's address at Friday prayers.

1845 GMT: The US House Representatives has passed, by a 405-1 vote, the following resolution:

Expressing support for all Iranian citizens who embrace the values of freedom, human rights, civil liberties, and rule of law, and for other purposes.

Resolved, That the House of Representatives—

(1) expresses its support for all Iranian citizens who embrace the values of freedom, human rights, civil liberties, and rule of law;

(2) condemns the ongoing violence against demonstrators by the Government of Iran and pro-government militias, as well as the ongoing government suppression of independent electronic communication through interference with the Internet and cellphones; and

(3) affirms the universality of individual rights and the importance of democratic and fair elections.

Representative Ron Paul of Texas cast the lone No vote.

1725 GMT: We've just posted a rough English-translation transcript of the Supreme Leader's speech.

1525 GMT: We've just posted Chris Emery's snap analysis of the Supreme Leader's speech, "7 Lessons".

1330 GMT: The Ministry of the Interior has turned down the application for a permit for Saturday's 4 p.m. march at Enqelab Square.

1300 GMT: Press TV English is focusing on the Supreme Leader's criticism of "Western countries" and "Western media" in his speech today calling for an end to "illegal rallies".This includes Khameini's misrepresentation of President Obama's statement this week: "The US President [said] Washington had been waiting for people to take to the streets."

Press TV English is also reproting on a "massive rally" by worshipers denouncing the West and expressing "their readiness to defend the achievements of the Islamic revolution".

1240 GMT: The Clerical Challenge? Today's Washington Times offers further details on Hashemi Rafsanjani's attempt to rally clerics against the electoral outcome: "Three grand ayatollahs have responded, but they are the same three who have gone on the record in the past denouncing government policies to little effect." They are Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, who at one time was the designated successor to Ayatollah Khomeini but is now under effective house arrest, Ayatollah Yusef al-Sa'nei, and Ayatollah Mousavi Ardabili. According to the paper, "The dozen or so other senior clerics in Qom are doing little."

The report relies on Mehdi Khalaji, who is with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and has been a strident critic of the Iranian Government, but it does correspond with other information we have received.

1200 GMT: The opposition campaign has made an immediate response to Ayatollah Khamenei's challenge. According to reliable Twitter sources, there will be a rally at 4 p.m. local time in Enqelab Square. Presidential candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi and former President Mohammad Khatami will attend.

1005 GMT: And not too difficult to read the next critical step. Do the opposition campaigns and their supporters, given the Supreme Leader's threats against any new marches, stand down their plans to demonstrate tomorrow?

That decision will be made not only in response to today's speech but in response to the Guardian Council's meeting with representatives of Presidential campaigns tomorrow.

0953 GMT: Not too difficult to give an immediate reading of the Supreme Leader's address: he laid down the line to those challenging last Friday's election results. He declared that the outcome was final, indicating that any adjustment of "mistakes" would be far less than the 11-million vote lead of President Ahmadinejad. While not blaming the leader of opposition campaigns for violence, he said they would be "responsible" for "terrorist plots" carried out under cover of the demonstrations.

Khamenei's attacks on "Western interference" had a dual purpose. He was warning off other countries, especially the US (note the direct reference to President Obama's relatively mild statements about the demonstrations), from any intervention. At the same, he was using that pretext of "intervention" to mobilise support for the re-election of President Ahmadinejad.

And there was also a challenge to former President Rafsanjani to cease and desist in his own attempts to challenge Ahmadinejad and, by implication, the Supreme Leader. I may have immediately mis-heard/mis-interpreted Khamenei's references to Rafsanjani and "corruption" --- analysts are saying that the Supreme Leader was not targeting Rafsanjani's allegations of corruption against Ahmadinejad; instead, Khamenei was offering a conciliatory hand by chiding the President's allegations against Rafsanjani --- the final statement was definitive: "I am closer to the President's views."

0945 GMT: We've moved the live blog of Supreme Leader's address to a separate entry.

0815 GMT: In Britain, Al Jazeera is giving a English translation of the Supreme Leader's address. CNN is carrying out a commentary, while Sky News is taking the Press TV English feed.

0810 GMT: The Supreme Leader has now appeared in the square, which is opposite Tehran University.

0805 GMT: Press TV English is providing live coverage of Friday prayers, with a large crowd awaiting the Supreme Leader. Their current commentary is defending the recent silence of President Ahmadinejad and his advisors, as the "powerful bodies" of the Assembly of Experts, Expediency Council, and Ministry of the Interior are making the necessary statements. Their analyst, Nader Mokhtari, is praising "a tribute to the strength of Iranian democracy that allows people to go out and voice their opinions and voice their grievances on the streets. It shows a great degree of tolerance in the face of destruction that has been wrought on Tehran by certain elements."

0710 GMT: Tehran Bureau has posted an interesting overview of the political battle between former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, "Rafsanjani's Next Move".

0700 GMT: It is 1130 GMT and almost everyone, including news reports, are awaiting the Supreme Leader's appearance. An Iranian witness has told "Alive in Tehran" (see separate post) that, rather than marching to prayers, the opposition protestors will demonstrate on Saturday.

We have also posted eyewitness testimony from Thursday's demonstration and the text of Mir Hossein Mousavi's speech to the rally.

Morning Update (0530 GMT): The Known: the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khameini, will address those attending Friday prayers in Tehran. It will be his first public appearance since the election, and his first statement since his call for "calm" and "unity" earlier this week after meeting with representatives of the Presidential campaigns. The event will be shown live by State media, including Press TV English.

The Unknown: it is unclear whether opposition campaigns, notably that of Mir Hossein Mousavi, will organise a march to today's prayers or whether they will hold a demonstration on Saturday, when the Guardian Council will be meeting with representatives of all four Presidential candidates.

It is even more uncertain what is happening in political and religious gatherings behind the scenes. In particular, there is speculation about the latest initiatives of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, who has been trying to organise clerical protest and even a formal position of the Assembly of Experts and Expediency Council against the electoral outcome. We have gathered some interesting analysis about Rafsanjani's position and will be posting later today.

Press TV continues to give prominence to the "official" Government line, featuring not only the Supreme Leader's Friday speech and the Guardian Council's Saturday meeting with the campaigns but also an extended report on protests in London against the BBC's coverage of the crisis. However, the broadcaster is also referring (briefly) to Thursday's demonstration in Tehran and noting Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei's appeal for details of the vote recount (he was turned down sharply). CNN's correspondent in Tehran says he is now restricted to one report per day --- today, it will be the Supreme Leader at Friday prayers, the images of which can be broadcast --- and CNN crew's requests for extensions of visas are being turned down.