Middle East Inside Line: Arab League & Israel-Palestine, British PM on Gaza "Prison Camp", Separation Fence Scandal

Thorny Road to Direct Israel-Palestine Talks: Arab League Foreign Ministers are meeting today in Cairo.

Talking to Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Moratinos in Jerusalem on Wednesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that continuing the construction freeze on West Bank settlements would be impossible politically and would bring down the coalition.

A Palestinian official told Reuters, "Abbas will tell [the Arab League] that, until this moment, there is nothing to convince us to go to direct talks.”

Israel-Palestine: Abbas’ Conditions, Netanyahu’s “Eastern Front” Response

Haaretz claims from Palestinian sources that Abbas will seek unequivocal clarifications from the US that the framework for direct talks will include a declaration that the Palestinian state will be based on the borders of 4 June 1967, with adjustments will be based on agreed exchanges of territory. The PA also wants an Israeli declaration that the construction freeze on settlements will continue and that building in East Jerusalem will stop.

Israeli cabinet minister Isaac Herzog (Labor Party) summarizes the dilemma of a "chicken-and-egg" situation. Talking to Israel Radio, he said:

Abu Mazen (Abbas) says: "I don't want to enter direct negotiations until I know what the final result will be."

Netanyahu says: "Enter direct negatiations and I will also tell you what the final result will be."

Each one looks at it opposite, and we are in a sort of political trap.

Britain's Cameron in Turkey, Comments on Gaza: British Prime Minister David Cameron made his first official visit to Turkey, warning European countries about anti-Muslim prejudice and the slow pace of accession talks with Turkey. He told Turkish businessmen:

When I think about what Turkey has done to defend Europe as a NATO ally and what Turkey is doing now in Afghanistan alongside European allies, it makes me angry that your progress towards EU membership can be frustrated in the way it has been. I believe it's just wrong to say Turkey can guard the camp but not be allowed to sit inside the tent.

Cameron's counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan called Israel’s raid on the Freedom Flotilla an act of “piracy” and compared Israeli officials to Somali pirates. Cameron said that the incident was “completely unacceptable” and called for a speedy and transparent Israeli inquiry into the incident. Cameron also sharpened his tone on Gaza:

The situation in Gaza has to change. Humanitarian goods and people must flow in both directions. Gaza cannot and must not be allowed to remain a prison camp.

The Israeli embassy in the U.K. responded to Cameron quickly:

The people of Gaza are the prisoners of the terrorist organization Hamas. The situation in Gaza is the direct result of Hamas’ rule and priorities.

We know that the Prime Minister would also share our grave concerns about our own prisoner in the Gaza Strip, Gilad Shalit, who has been held hostage there for over four years, without receiving a single Red Cross visit.

Separation Fence Scandal: EA has already reported that Walajeh, a village in the Bethlehem Governorate 8.5 kilometres (5.3 miles) to the southwest of Jerusalem, is in danger of being cut off from the rest of Palestinian lands, leaving 2,000 villagers encircled by Israeli settlements, roads, and security barriers.

In a court hearing on Sunday, it emerged that the order to expropriate village lands for the fence, which enabled the work to begin, had expired a year ago. However, instead of ordering a halt to the work, the court issued an injunction requiring the state to explain within 45 days why construction should not be stopped.

The Society for the Protection of Nature in Israel and Palestinian villagers say that since the injunction was issued, the Defense Ministry and the contractors have been working much faster than before.

The Cost of an Eye: Emily Henochowicz, an Israeli-American studying at the Bezalel Academy of Art in Jerusalem, lost her left eye when Border Guards fired a tear gas canister during a demonstration following the raid on Freedom Flotilla.

According to Henochowicz, one policeman shot a canister directly at her face. Haaretz says that one of its reporter also witnessed the incident.

Following her treatment in Jerusalem, her father was handed a bill for NIS 14,000 (around $3,600). The Ministry of Defense refused to pay, claiming the tear gas was not fired directly at Henochowicz. The statement accused Henochowicz of putting herself at risk by voluntarily participating in a breach of the peace and accused:

From our reports, we know that the Border Police acted in accordance with the law at the violent demonstration at Qalandia, and that the shooting of tear gas canisters at demonstrators was justified. Of course, we regret that Emily Henochowicz was wounded in her eye. But under such circumstances, the Defense Ministry does not cover the expenses of medical treatment.

Israel-Palestine: Abbas' Conditions, Netanyahu's "Eastern Front" Response

On Sunday the leader of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, said that he was under pressure from the international community to start direct talks but added that negotiations would collapse from the first minute if there were no "clear and specific references".

Ahead of Thursday's Arab League foreign ministers' summit in Cairo, these references should be seen as a future Palestinian state based on pre-1967 borders and a construction freeze both in the West Bank and in East Jerusalem.

To Lift The Spirits (Sequel): Dancing with Matt…in Gaza

In response, speaking at the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu blamed the PA for "stalling direct talks and relying on the Arab League for support." He said that first "they [Palestinians] said it was the [settlement] freeze, now it's the borders issue."

On the security front, Netanyahu put a double-edged agenda: First he said, "We won't compromise security and that's why the U.S. administration has been notified of our security needs." The he asserted, "Arrangements reached with the Palestinians must be such as to withstand any changes in the political and security Middle East map," and he went further, "The Palestinians must hold firm even if an eastern front develops, as was the case, for example, before the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime."

What was meant by the "eastern front"? Any guesses?

No Israeli politician is likely stop with only an "eastern front". Israel's Defense Minister Ehud Barak added a "north front". In an interview with The Washington Post, he said that the IDF will attack Lebanese government institutions if Israel is again subjected to rocket attacks and continued:

We will not run after each Hezbullah terrorist or launcher....We will see it as legitimate to hit any target that belongs to the Lebanese state, not just to Hezbullah.

And Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman was back on West Bank settlements, calling for new building to resume once the moratorium ends September 26:

From September we must resume normal life here. We do not have any intention to change the demographic situation or to create a provocation, but only to provide a normal life for the people that came here under the policies of [past] government[s].

A day before Lieberman's visit, Netanyahu had said he had not intention to extend the 10-month moratorium, saying "the slowdown was limited in time: It has not changed and that's how it will be."

So Netanyahu's "eastern front" complements the demands elsewhere on "security" and on settlements. All of this puts up a formidable wall to Abbas' conditions for agreement to direct talks.

Middle East Inside Line: US Reaction to House Demolitions, Netanyahu-Mubarak Meeting Deferred and More...

US Criticises Demolition of Palestinian Houses: On Wednesday, State Department spokesman Philip Crowley criticized Israel's recent demolition of Palestinian houses in East Jerusalem: "It is the very kind of action that poses a potential obstacle to direct negotiations. Any steps that the Israelis, Palestinians or other parties take that change the facts on the ground, we think are unhelpful."

Netanyahu Not Going to Cairo: Egypt deferred "the planned meeting between President Hosni Mubarak and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Israeli sources claim that the underlying reason of the postponement is Mubarak's deteriorating health situation (see separate EA entry with further information). However, speaking with Al-Shorouq on Wednesday, a senior Egyptian official denied reports of Mubarak's ailing health, saying the meeting was pushed back due to "provocative moves made by Israel".

Turkey Insists on International Probe of Flotilla Attack: After Maj.-Gen. Giora Eiland announced that a military commission's findings that the Israeli Navy had made "operational mistakes" in the 31 May operation against the Freedom Flotilla to Gaza, Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told reporters Tuesday that he welcomed the acknowledgement of "mistakes". However, he said the Israeli commandos had committed "a crime" and said Turkey wants an international enquiry.

Israel Radar System Successfully Tested: Israel tested the Iron Dome's advanced radar system successfully on Wednesday, moving a step closer to deploying both radars and interceptor missiles along the Gaza and Lebanon borders.

Hezbollah's "List of Targets": In an interview with AFP, Naim Kassem, the leader of Hezbollah, said that the group has "large and precise" list of Israeli targets to attack if a third Lebanon war breaks out. He continued:

We now hold a large and precise bank of Israeli targets, and Israel will have to pay the price for any step it takes.

Hezbollah has worked to develop its readiness to rise to the challenge should it arise, and we can safely say that in the past four years we have prepared ourselves far more than Israel has.

Palestine Analysis: What is Ramallah's Strategy on Israel Talks? (Yenidunya)

Although some Palestinian Authority officials do not rule out the possibility of moving to direct talks as long as Israel give certain pledges regarding the agenda and the timetable, chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat is not seeing eye-to-eye with them.

Speaking to the Turkish state television channel TRT on Tuesday, Erekat said:

Our option is a two-state solution. We have recognized the state of Israel and its right to exist on the 1967 borders. Now it's up to the international community to stand firm and recognize Palestine on the 1967 lines with Jerusalem as its capital.

Our position is that the key to direct negotiations is in the hand of Mr. Netanyahu. The minute he stops settlement activities including natural growth in Jerusalem, the minute he agrees to go to permanent status talks, where we left them in December 2008, we'll have direct talks.

The Israelis have a choice, settlements or peace. They can't have both.

Erekat also added that a unilateral declaration of a Palestinian state is "not on the agenda".

In contrast, pointing to a possible consensus on the transfer of security in some West Bank cities to Palestinian forces as a confidence-building measure, Haaretz reports that Shin Bet security service head Yuval Diskin recently spent a day in the West Bank city of Jenin as a guest of Palestinian Authority counterparts.

Shin Bet chose not to respond to the report. Senior Palestinian officials, however, confirmed yesterday that Diskin had visited last week.

So, given that some Palestinian officials like Erekat are putting conditions on talks but others like Yasser Abed Rabbo are hinting at a possible deal to get to the negotiating table, what is Ramallah's strategy?

It had been reported, following President Obama's telephone call to the PA leader Mahmoud Abbas, that Abbas rejected direct talks before a settlement freeze in both the West Bank and in East Jerusalem. However, Haaretz adds this crucial paragraph:

According to knowledgeable sources in Ramallah, the day after meeting with Netanyahu, US President Barack Obama promised PA President Mahmoud Abbas that if, by this coming winter, [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu doesn't place a reasonable map on the negotiating table, which includes the division of Jerusalem, Obama will place his own map on the table.

Thus, the answer to the Palestinian riddle tseems to lie in Washington.

Israel-Palestine Analysis: What Can Netanyahu Offer the Palestinians?

On Monday the Jerusalem municipal planning committee approved construction of 32 new apartments in a Jewish neighborhood in the Pisgat Ze'ev across the Green Line.

Elisha Peleg, a member of the Jerusalem Municipal Planning and Construction Committee, said: "We will continue to plan and build in every neighborhood in this city and we will not allow external forces to intervene."

The development comes days before US special envoy George Mitchell arrives for talks with Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas, who in turn meets Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak before the weekend.

While some argue that Ramallah will not go to direct talks when the four-month proximity discussions end in September --- since Israelis have not agreed to continue the December 2008 negotiations and to halt construction both in East Jerusalem and in the West Bank --- Yasser Abed Rabbo, a Palestine Liberation Organization official, hinted a possible deal. He said:

We don't know that the proximity talks have stopped. Mitchell is coming next week, and the context and the core of the talks are more important to us than the way they are being held.

If the Palestinians move from proximity talks to direct talks, I believe that the negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians will be similar to the type of negotiations between the two sides before it stopped in December 2008.

PA officials in Ramallah on Monday did not rule out the possibility. “We don’t rule out direct talks,” said one official. “But before we move to these talks, we want to have a clear agenda and timetable.”

Ramallah will not make a decision without the Arab League's confirmation but the advance towards direct talks can only come with Israel's clear pledges for the continuation of discussions stopped in December 2008. Even then, it is not going to be easy for the Palestinian Authority to sit on the table when construction is continuing in East Jerusalem, let alone when the freeze on building in the West Bank end in September.

The Palestinians are likely going to ask for a public declaration of intent to make East Jerusalem the capital of a future Palestinian state. Whether that is enough to swallow the Israeli refusal, in advance of talks, to curb settlements is unknown.

Even so, given the various interests of a broad Israeli coalition, can Netanyahu even go this far to fulfil his claim that he is ready for direct exchanges with his Palestinian counterparts?