Beyond the Election: Talking Turkey to Iran?

The Latest from Iran (14 July): Ripples on the Surface

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Colette Mazzucelli, who has written for Enduring America and our partner website Libertas, has a challenging article (co-written with Sebnam Udum) in Atlantic Community on the next steps regarding Tehran in the international community: "UN Security Council members and Germany must turn to Turkey to successfully negotiate with Iran."

Why the West Should Talk Turkey with Iran

As Presidents Obama and Medvedev met in Moscow to agree in reductions on their strategic nuclear arsenal, events inside Iran continued to evolve. An increasing segment of the Iranian population worries about the disappearance of "semi-democracy" in favor of totalitarian rule. Influential clerics have indicated their lack of support for the results of the June 12 elections, which led to a second term for the incumbent, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

In the weeks after the election, cell phone images and Twitter accounts of a brutal government crackdown on the reform movement were uploaded to the Internet. Billions of people around the world continue to witness a regime, and the authority of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, losing the legitimacy established with the Islamic Revolution three decades ago.

It is too soon to know the ultimate outcome of these events, which may take years to play out in domestic politics. The transatlantic allies must remain proactive in nuclear diplomacy within the P5+1. There must be a readiness to engage Iran with a unified negotiating line should the leadership in Tehran decide to respond to the package on the table. President Obama is prudent to expect a signal from the Iranians by September as to their interest, or lack thereof, for serious engagement. Iran shows no sign of halting its nuclear aspirations as time passes.

Even though the ball is now in Iran's court, the transatlantic allies should not play a waiting game. There is much work to do particularly in the bilateral talks US diplomats conduct with Russia and China. The Obama Administration's seriousness about non-proliferation with the Russians demonstrates leadership by the power of example. E3 diplomacy with Russian and Chinese counterparts must also aim to unify negotiating positions vis-à-vis Iran. This is complicated during an election year for the Germans, who have significant economic relations with Iran. The accent must be on a package that highlights Iran's inherent right to a civilian nuclear program with a nuclear-fuel-cycle capability of its own under intensive International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) control and verification.

There is another player to which the transatlantic allies must now increasingly turn in the overall relationship with Iran after the events of June 12: Turkey. The absence of conflict between Iran and Turkey is due to the rough strategic balance between the two countries despite mutual threat perceptions from their respective political regimes. Turkey is concerned about Iran's missile and nuclear programs. The Turkish leadership defines threat as a combination of motivations and capabilities, which is why maintaining good neighborly relations with Tehran is important for Ankara.

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Iran: Tehran's Immediate Response to the G8 Summit

After the warning of the G8 Summit to Tehran, Iran response came quickly. On Saturday, Manouchehr Mottaki, Iran's foreign minister, said that they had not received "a new message" and would propose a package "containing Iran's stances on political, security and international issues." Mottaki said: "We have not received any new message from the G8. But based on the news we have received, they had different views on different issues which did not lead to a unanimous agreement in some areas."

Mottaki is correct, in the sense that, except from a September deadline for negotiations, there were nothing new in the G8 declaration. However, despite Mottaki's declaration, "The package can be a good basis for talks with the West," there was nothing new in Iran's response, either. According to Al-Jazeera, it will not be beyond a new version of a May 2008 list of discussion points stating "the creation of an international consortium" to enrich uranium on its own soil as a way of defusing the tense standoff over its nuclear programme.

Britain's Foreign Office and the White House have avoided giving immediate responses so far. Instead, the "5+1" (the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and Germany) await Tehran's next step.

Iran: How Strong is the G8 Statement on the Nuclear Programme?

The Latest from Iran (10 July): What Next?

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After ""L’Aquila Statement on Non-Proliferation Declaration"": it's a long name for the G8's balancing act on the Iranian nuclear programme. This is a diplomatic document seeking common ground through careful language: "We reiterate our unanimous commitment to working for a comprehensive, peaceful and diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear issue and strongly support ongoing efforts to resolve it through negotiations."

The Statement continued:

We urge Iran to use the present window of opportunity for engagement with the international community in a spirit of mutual respect and to respond positively to the offers advanced, in order to find a negotiated solution which will address Iran’s interest as well as the international community concerns. While recognizing once again that Iran has the right to a civilian nuclear program under the NPT [Non-Proliferation Treaty], we stress that Iran has the responsibility, as reiterated by UNSC Resolutions, to restore confidence in the exclusively peaceful nature of its nuclear activities, allowing for the establishment of a fruitful and wide-ranging cooperation with the G8 and other countries.

The proliferation risks posed by Iran’s nuclear program continue to be a matter of serious concern. We urge Iran to comply with the relevant UNSC [United Nations Security Council] Resolutions and to fully cooperate with the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] by providing the Agency such access and information that it requests to resolve the issues raised in the IAEA Director General’s Reports.

President Obama offered a suitably-worded interpretation to wag a finger at Tehran:

Now, we face a real-time challenge on nuclear proliferation in Iran. And at this summit, the G8 nations came together to issue a strong statement calling on Iran to fulfill its responsibilities to the international community without further delay. We remain seriously concerned about the appalling events surrounding the presidential election. And we're deeply troubled by the proliferation risks Iran's nuclear program poses to the world.

Others in the Obama Administration were willing to be even starker in their portrayal of the threat. A day before the release of the Statement, the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mike Mullen, spoke to the Center for Strategic and International Studies:

I believe Iran is very focused on developing this capability, and I think when they get it, or should they get it, it will be very destabilizing.

The very same day, along with Mullen's self-confident speech, the Secretary of State Hillary Clinton reiterated that Tehran's acquisition of nuclear weapons would be a destabilizing factor in the region and said that the United States would call for "even stricter sanctions on Iran to try to change the behavior of the regime."

However, on Wednesday, a more careful message came from the French President Nicholas Sarkozy. On one hand, he warned Tel Aviv not to attack Tehran as this would be an "absolute catastrophe". On the other hand, he reassured, "Israel should know that it is not alone and look at all this calm. If I have fought so hard in the name of France to get people talking about Iran it's also a message to the Israelis that they are not alone," and delivered a deadline to Tehran: "If no progress is made, leaders will reach new decisions at a G20 economic summit in Pittsburgh in late September."

So it's not the statement of the G-8 Summit that poses the questions over future relations with Iran. Those are in the post-summit positions now being considered in Washington and Paris, not to mention Moscow and Beijing.