Sunday
Jul122009
Iran Opposition Alert: Friday is the Day?
Sunday, July 12, 2009 at 23:59
The Latest from Iran (16 July): Waiting for Rafsanjani’s Prayers
NEW Iran: How Friday’s Prayers Might Develop
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UPDATE 14 July, 0605 GMT: Latest on plans for the march to Friday prayers. The newssite Sharaf says it is probable that Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi will participate, but spokesmen for both men say decisions will be announced in forthcoming days through “official channels”.
UPDATE 13 July, 0845 GMT: How serious could this challenge be? Rumours are being spread, possibly by pro-Ahmadinejad sources, that this Friday's prayers will be Rafsanjani's last. Rafsanjani's son has denied this, and Ali Asghari, the repesentative of the Expediency Council in Parliament, has reaffirmed that Rafsanjani remains a prayer leader in Tehran.
UPDATE: A reader offers the following clarification and comment, "On the Mousavi Facebook it says, "Until now there is no confirmed report of the presence of Mousavi, Khatami and [Presidential candidate Mehdi] Karroubi in the prayers". I also wished that you had given more credit to Karroubi in your analysis. I think that Karroubi was very active and organized in supporting the protesters, organizing ways for families of the protesters to get in touch with the arrested and taking personally taking on the regime regarding the state of the arrested people."
We began today's updates by noting, "For the second day in a row, there were no significant open demonstrations, and statements were limited," and wondering when the opposition would make its next big move.
It's come. Four hours ago, on his Facebook page, Mir Hossein Mousavi declared, part in English, part in Farsi:
"ANOTHER BIG EVENT IS GOING TO COME....
"Venue on 26th Tir (July 17th)"
"Rafsanjani to address the people for Friday's prayers at Tehran University"
"Arise, Green Wave!"
"The day we were awaiting is finally going to come"
"With the presence of Seyyed Mohammad Khatami and Mir Hossein Mousavi"
So the perfect storm of the opposition from "without", the public challenge symbolised by the leadership of the Presidential candidate Mousavi, and the opposition from "within", the private manoeuvring of former President Rafsanjani, may be imminent. Rafsanjani, having refused to lead prayers in recent weeks and limited his pulbic appearances, re-emerges dramatically on Friday, and a vast crowd of demonstrators marches to the University of Tehran to welcome and applaud him. It turns the regime's public displays --- an ayatollah, even the Supreme Leader, setting out the appropriate line to the acclaim of followers --- against it.
This plan also has the clever beauty of complicating the regime's response. Does it dare tell Rafsanjani that he cannot speak on Friday? Do security forces dare block marchers who, after all, are only trying to worship as "good" Muslims?
This, in short, could be the largest mass gathering since 15 June, complete with the presence of Rafsanjani, Mousavi, and Khatami. Start counting dowy the days....
(hat tip to readers who made this analysis possible)
NEW Iran: How Friday’s Prayers Might Develop
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS- SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
UPDATE 14 July, 0605 GMT: Latest on plans for the march to Friday prayers. The newssite Sharaf says it is probable that Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi will participate, but spokesmen for both men say decisions will be announced in forthcoming days through “official channels”.UPDATE 13 July, 0845 GMT: How serious could this challenge be? Rumours are being spread, possibly by pro-Ahmadinejad sources, that this Friday's prayers will be Rafsanjani's last. Rafsanjani's son has denied this, and Ali Asghari, the repesentative of the Expediency Council in Parliament, has reaffirmed that Rafsanjani remains a prayer leader in Tehran.
UPDATE: A reader offers the following clarification and comment, "On the Mousavi Facebook it says, "Until now there is no confirmed report of the presence of Mousavi, Khatami and [Presidential candidate Mehdi] Karroubi in the prayers". I also wished that you had given more credit to Karroubi in your analysis. I think that Karroubi was very active and organized in supporting the protesters, organizing ways for families of the protesters to get in touch with the arrested and taking personally taking on the regime regarding the state of the arrested people."
We began today's updates by noting, "For the second day in a row, there were no significant open demonstrations, and statements were limited," and wondering when the opposition would make its next big move.
It's come. Four hours ago, on his Facebook page, Mir Hossein Mousavi declared, part in English, part in Farsi:
"ANOTHER BIG EVENT IS GOING TO COME....
"Venue on 26th Tir (July 17th)"
"Rafsanjani to address the people for Friday's prayers at Tehran University"
"Arise, Green Wave!"
"The day we were awaiting is finally going to come"
"With the presence of Seyyed Mohammad Khatami and Mir Hossein Mousavi"
So the perfect storm of the opposition from "without", the public challenge symbolised by the leadership of the Presidential candidate Mousavi, and the opposition from "within", the private manoeuvring of former President Rafsanjani, may be imminent. Rafsanjani, having refused to lead prayers in recent weeks and limited his pulbic appearances, re-emerges dramatically on Friday, and a vast crowd of demonstrators marches to the University of Tehran to welcome and applaud him. It turns the regime's public displays --- an ayatollah, even the Supreme Leader, setting out the appropriate line to the acclaim of followers --- against it.
This plan also has the clever beauty of complicating the regime's response. Does it dare tell Rafsanjani that he cannot speak on Friday? Do security forces dare block marchers who, after all, are only trying to worship as "good" Muslims?
This, in short, could be the largest mass gathering since 15 June, complete with the presence of Rafsanjani, Mousavi, and Khatami. Start counting dowy the days....
(hat tip to readers who made this analysis possible)