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Saturday
Jul112009

The Latest from Iran (11 July): Drawing Breath

LATEST Video: The 18 Tir Protests (9 July)
NEW Iran: Rebellion of the Clerics? Not So Fast
Iran Video: Mr Ahmadinejad and His Wonderful, Brightly-Coloured Charts
The Latest from Iran (10 July): What Next?

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IRAN GREEN1800 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi's letter to the head of the Iranian judiciary, Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi, has been published on a Facebook page of Mohammad Khatami: "All protesting the election results agree with the original system, but its defenders have confiscated the electoral process."

1455 GMT: The mysterious of the "Basiji" audio tape (0825 and 1130 GMT): A very helpful reader has listened to four hours of the tapes and offers the following: "Each [of the four] segments is about an hour and on different aspect of protests and how to understand and neutralize it. The audio seems to be from the Revolutionary Guard who criticize the Basiji for ineffectiveness and lack of training. The 4th segment in the audio is creepy and openly talks about why ppeople are talking about a coup, psychological operations, ideology, etc."

Another reader adds, "This seems leaked audio from immediately after 1999 raids [on the 18 Tir] demonstrations. Still, given ranking figures supposedly in recordings, worth examining." The first reader, however, points us to a document, "Mechanisms for Suppression of Mobilization", which seems to correspond to aspect of the audio discussion.

(Again, our gratitude to both sources for assistance above and beyond the call of duty.)

1445 GMT: Citing a "security source", Lara Setrakian of ABC News (US) says that President Ahmadinejad's national broadcast on Tuesday was hindered by blackouts, caused by deliberate power surges from protestors' use of electrical appliances.

1430 GMT: Ayatollah Montazeri, the one-time successor to Ayatollah Khomeini, has issued another fatwa condemning the violence used against protestors. Any Government sanctioning such violence is "un-Islamic".

1230 GMT: Al Arabiya is reporting that Tehran's police chief has declared half of the city a "crisis zone".

1130 GMT: Correction. Our latest information is that the leaked audio of Basiji conversation (0825 GMT) is analysis and training in security methods.

1025 GMT: Election Past, Engagement Present. In the first clear sign that the post-election conflict is pushing the regime towards discussions with the "West" on Iran's nuclear programme and other matters of concern, Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has told a news conference that Iran will present a package of "political, security, and international issues" for consideration: ""The package can be a good basis for talks with the West. The package will contain Iran's stances on political, security and international issues."

0935 GMT: The Silence is Broken. Mehdi Karroubi has issued a strong statement this morning, calling on the head of the Iranian judiciary, Ayatollah Shahroudi, to release detained protesters: "Constitutionalism and sovereignty of the people are opposed to tyranny."

0825 GMT: A lot of chatter this morning about a leaked audio, allegedly of Basiji discussing plans to raid university dormitories.

0800 GMT: More on the arrest of Iranian-American scholar Kian Tajbakhsh (see yesterday's updates). The important link: Tajbakhsh was one of four US citizens detained in 2007 by the Iranian Government, the most prominent of whom was Haleh Esfiandiari. He was released after four months.

So the Iranian regime is still pursuing --- for public consumption, from their suspicions, or both --- the idea of a "velvet revolution" backed by US groups and possibly the American government.

0715 GMT: A reader tips us off to a development which we missed yesterday: according to the German news service Deutsche Welle, the 27-nation European Union has suspended all visas or visa extensions for Iranian diplomats and their families.

0630 GMT: A very quiet start to the day, with no breaking news.

The question we raised yesterday, "What next?", after the 18 Tir protests on Thursday, still hangs in the air. The only visible protests were small gatherings of the families of detainees in several locations in Tehran. Not a public word from figures such as Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani maintaining a mysterious silence. And the regime took a breather as well: beyond Ayatollah Kashani's relatively low-key address at Tehran prayers, the headline pronouncement was "a 50,000-strong special constable-like force called 'honorary police officers' to provide assistance to police support units".

There was one statement of note. Ayatollah Hashim Hashim-Zadeh Hareesi, a member of the Assembly of Experts, declared that people had started to distrust the system because of the election process. The government needed to restore people’s trust to prevent more serious problems. In itself, that statement could complement, rather than challenge, Ayatollah Kashani's request to the Iranian Parliament to review the electoral law and the Guardian Council's promise of a report on the election.

Press TV takes a look outside, "Obama ends G8 with warning to Iran". BBC English, whose coverage of Iran has almost collapsed, also devotes its limited attention to the G8 summit. CNN briefly refers to the arrest of academic Kian Tajbakhsh, primarily because he has American citizenship.

References (2)

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    EA WorldView - Archives: July 2009 - The Latest from Iran (11 July): Drawing Breath
  • Response
    EA WorldView - Archives: July 2009 - The Latest from Iran (11 July): Drawing Breath

Reader Comments (11)

Arabiya TV is reporting that Tehran's police chief has declared "half the city" a "crisis (disaster) zone." I don't see the news anywhere else. Have you heard about it. It's on Arabiya TV's website, but in Arabic, and it's the very first item. Unfortunately, you can't cut and paste from their websiter (www.alarabiya.net)/
Edward Yeranian/ Voice of America, Cairo

July 11, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterEdward Yeranian

In the leaked basiji audio, one of the speakers (file #5) quotes from a meeting they had when the russian foreign minister and the russiuan security officials was in tehran. He says he asked the russian security official how do you control the crowds in russia, and they replied that in russia there is one security officer for controlling every 3000 people.

It is interesting how russia is so obviously keen to support the iranian regime.

July 11, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAM

In another part of the audio (file #5), one of the speakers talks about how they managed to stop a damaging document to surface a couple of months ago. He says if it had leaked out, it would have looked as if it (what???) was arranged centrally (meaning some ministry??), but in actual fact he says it was something (dodgy?) that was done by an individual in a province.

July 11, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAM

Edward,

Thank you. Have not seen anything to this effect. Will post update and see if we can stir a response.

July 11, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterScott Lucas

A speaker spends a lot of time discussing what he calls a new term in Iraninan politics (Kohdi and gheire khodi), which basically means those who are "in" the circle of trust and those who are "out". then he goes on defining who is "in" and who is "out" and draws very blurry lines between the two.

Previously I had heard "revolutionaries"(those in favour of 1979 revolution, and "anti-revolutionaries" or the "monarchists". There was no ambiguity then.

Now it seems they are facing the problem of defining the divisions in the country.

they seem all too aware of suttle but serious divisions within the fabric of the regime.

July 11, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAM

Im a Canadian Non-Muslim who is concerned with the response of the West and other Nations who neighbour Iran. I understand that the Religous Leaders are running that Beautiful Nation just like the Taliban. Is the Supreme Liar of Iran actually a Shia Taliban? It seems their level of tolerence is much higher, but the beliefs of power and control are the same. The tatics may of worked in the past, in the New World you can not get away with it. Unless there are higher powers (do not mean God) that are acctually allowing this to happen.
I enjoy that finally a deadline has been announced for those Liars to get their lies together or they will face (oooh) sanctions. That only hurt the people of Iran not the suprem liar, how about sending in some Israeli Camando's to free the prisoners, convert these Basiji from evil to good and arm as many neighbourhoods to protect the demonstrators.
I think that the west is not doing enough to support and Friday/Saturday proved that the demonstrations are slowing down as they are breaking up families and hurting the moral family fabric of the average citizen of Iran. A change of sorts is inevitable, just a matter of when, however in the mean time, Im sure the west and Europe CAN NOT RECOGNIZE THE FRAUDULENT PRESIDENT as the voice of the people, cause we see that the people do not want this dictator and his facist communist beliefs they want to return to the Glory and Respect Persia had in the World.
Thank you for reporting to the best of your abilities and let us not take the death of Neda lightly and Glorify Her more, she actually brought tears to my eyes watching her die on camera, my God bless and accept her and punish her murder and those who supported the murderer, like the suprem liar and his son whose now in control of the Basij.

July 11, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterTommy

Edward,

Still cannot find any reference in sources from Iran to Tehran police chief's supposed statement.

S.

July 11, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterScott Lucas

[...] The Latest from Iran (11 July): Drawing Breath( | Enduring America 1455 GMT: The mysterious of the “Basiji” audio tape (0825 and 1130 GMT): A very helpful reader [...]

An excellent update. I say to all those out there, the IT peopke help open a door to those who are fighting for freedom. Volunteer bandwith help get the stories out to the Free Presss so the World Leaders need to step in. Time for sanctions. Keep up the good work and God bless.

July 11, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterBob Bordonaro

Edward,

The statement "half the city a crisis (disaster) zone” was made by Ahmadi-Moghaddam and you can see the statement on Aftabnews, one of the news agencies in Iran.

Here is the link.

http://www.aftabnews.ir/vdcfved1.w6dxjagiiw.html

Mazdak

July 11, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterMazdak

Mazdak,

Thank you so much. We will follow this up in 1st update on Sunday.

S.

July 11, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterScott Lucas

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