Latest from Iran (7 January): Radio Silence?

2155 GMT: Hmm.... Looks like the homepage of Iran's Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance has been visited by a hacker.

2150 GMT: Are You Listening in Tel Aviv? The Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, has pretty much slapped a public restraining order on an Israeli attack on Iran. He told the Washington Institute of Near East Policy that Iran was "on a path that has strategic intent to develop nuclear weapons and have been for some time" and "that outcome is potentially a very, very destabilizing outcome"; however, he continued:

On the other hand, when asked about striking Iran, specifically, that also has a very, very destabilizing outcome....That part of the world could become much more unstable, which is a dangerous global outcome.

(Here's a surprise: Iran's Press TV is already featuring Mullen's words.)

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The Latest from Iran (6 January): Distractions

2125 GMT: An Iranian blog has published pictures of those trying to attack Mehdi Karroubi in Qazvin tonight (see 2025 GMT).

An Iranian activist has posted a summary on Facebook, claiming about 200 plainclothes "thugs" gathered outside the house where Karroubi was staying. The police tried to prevent a confrontation as about 500 people looked on; however, according to the activist, there were Revolutionary Guard commanders amongst the would-be attackers. When Karroubi was leaving, his car was pelted with eggs and broken bricks.

2120 GMT: Deutsche Welle publishes a story mentioned by one of our readers earlier today. The Iranian Government has declared that "defaced" banknotes will not be considered as legal currency as of 16 January. The announcement is clearly aimed at the widespread movement of protest by putting Green slogans on the currency.

In response, the opposition has declared that 17 January will be a day of protest with massive circulation of the "Green" banknotes.

2039 GMT: 99% Support is Not Enough. Peyke Iran reports that Hojatoleslam Ruhollah Hosseinian has resigned as a member of Parliament because there has not been "100% support for Ayatollah Khamenei". Hosseinian is considered a fervent supporter of President Ahmadinejad, whom he has served as security advisor. He is also a former Deputy Minister of Intelligence.

2025 GMT: Karroubi Visit and Qazvin Clashes. A lot of chatter about Mehdi Karroubi's trip to Qazvin, 165 miles northwest of Tehran. Saham News reports that there were clashes when  the home of Hojetoleslam Ghavami, where Karroubi was staying, was attacked.

2000 GMT: Iranian human rights groups report that student leader Majid Tavakoli, detained after his speech at the 16 Azar (7 December) protests, has been tried and sentenced in Revolutionary Court.

Tavakoli, given permission to contact his family for the first time since his arrest, said he was charged with insulting the Supreme Leader, insulting the President, and gathering and spreading propaganda against the regime. The trial was held behind closed doors, and Tavakoli remains in solitary confinement in Evin Prison.

Iranian authorities attempted to humiliate Tavakoli by distributing his photograph in woman's hejab, prompting the protest "We Are All Majid".

1950 GMT: Fasih Yasamani was hanged on Wednesday.

Yasamani, in prison since 2007, was accused of belonging to the opposition party Pajvak,
an armed Kurdish group. The evidence against Yasamani were his confessions, which he claimed were obtained by torture.

The 28-year-old Yasamani is the second Kurdish citizen executed since the June election. Ehsan Fattahian was killed on 11 November.

Iranian human rights groups claim that there are 17 other political prisoners on death row in Kurdistan.

1945 GMT:Ashura "Mohareb" Trials? Islamic Republic News Agency reports that five of the protesters on Ashura (27 December) will be tried in Revolutionary Court.

There has already reportedly been a trial of demonstrators. The distinction in this report is these five will be charged with "mohareb" (a war against God), a crime which can be punished by death.

1730 GMT: Radio Silence Indeed. Because of complications of site outage and my commitments in Beirut, we've been limited in updates today. I'll be here about 1930 GMT to go through the day's events.

1005 GMT: Missing. The husband of student activist Bahareh Hedayat, has told Rooz Online, "We have no information about her." Hedayat was detained at the end of December.

1000 GMT: A Petition with Caution.
An interesting story out of Australia....

After the resignation of an Iranian diplomat in Norway in protest over the Government's handling of the post-election conflict, Iran Solidarity in Melbourne has posted a petition asking Iran's Ambassador to Australia to give up his post.

There's a note on the petition, however, which points to fear as well as activism: "***READ BEFORE SIGNING*** UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES SHOULD ANYBODY USE THEIR REAL NAME WHEN SIGNING THIS PETITION."

0625 GMT: Tantalising --- but True? One claim, and it is only a claim at this point, to note: Maziar Bahari writes in Newsweek: "Sources close to conservatives say that some leading figures are now pressing [Supreme Leader] Khamenei to dump [President] Ahmadinejad in order to preserve his own position."

0620 GMT: Possibly the quietest period in Iranian politics since June, even in chatter amongst our Internet sources.

Speaking of those sources, we have two special analyses this morning. Josh Shahryar offers a detailed response to a recent article ridiculing the role of social media in the post-election events in Iran. And I flash back to late June with "A Tale of Two Twitterers".

We'll be on limited service today because of conference duties. Please keep sending in news and comment, especially if situation picks up later today.

The Path to Gaza: Death and Injuries for Aid!

Following a call from Hamas rulers regarding the protest over the delay of an international aid convoy on Wednesday, an Egyptian cop was shot dead by a Hamas sniper from the Gaza side. On Tuesday night, the clash between international activists and Egyptian forces resulted in injuries to more than 50 activists.

The first incident took place at the nearby Mediterranean port of El-Arish when Egypt refused to allow part of the convoy to enter its territory and move on to Gaza.  British MP George Galloway stated that Egyptian authorities had asked for the transfer of the route of 25 percent of the convoy towards Israel.

Al-Sakka, the Jordanian activist, said six activists were detained, including Americans and British citizens.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XSESXmrqxYY[/youtube]

Meanwhile Egypt has stated that the permitted time to stay inside Gaza has been changed from 48 hours to 24 hours.

Israel-Palestine Analysis: Change" in the Air Over Peace Talks?

Following claims that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is close to finalizing an agreement with the Obama Administration for peace talks with the Palestinian Authority, the PA gave its approval for such talks this weekend.

One PA official stated that Netanyahu was now apparently ready to recognize the pre-1967 borders as the basis for future talks and was ready to swap territory between the two countries. He added, "We're beginning to hear new things from Israel. For the first time an Israeli government is willing to negotiate with us on the basis of the 1967 borders, and this is an encouraging move."

"Peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians could be relaunched as early as February," added another PA official in Ramallah.

Meanwhile, Egyptian sources told the Cairo-based daily Al-Ahram on Monday that Barack Obama's administration will put forward a plan whereby Israel would commit itself to the establishment of a Palestinian state within two years of the launch of peace talks with the Palestinian Authority.

On Monday, at the press conference following her meeting with Qatar Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad Bin Jassim Bin Jabr Al-Thani, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton promised greater commitment to achieving a settlement between the PA and Israel:

We know that the Palestinians deserve a state to fulfill their aspirations. The Israelis deserve security to live peacefully side by side with their Palestinian neighbors. The Arab nations have made a very positive contribution in the peace initiative of the Arab League and others. So we’re going to be even more committed this year, and we’re starting this new year with that level of commitment and we’re going to follow through and hopefully we can see this as a positive year in this long process.

On the same day, while addressing lawmakers from his Likud party, Netanyahu said that he sensed "a change in the air":

In recent weeks I have felt that there is a certain change in the air, and I hope that this will mature, allowing the start of the diplomatic process.

We are serious in our intentions to reach a peace agreement.

Israel is ready for a peace process with the Palestinian Authority, without preconditions.

Netanyahu, however, added the caution, "Diplomatic plans said to be in my name that have appeared in the media have no truth."

There is also the standing obstacle of the declaration by PA leader Mahmoud Abbas that there will be no peace talks unless there is a complete freeze on Israeli settlements, both in East Jerusalem and the West Bank. Following his meeting with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, Abbas repeated,

We have said and are still saying that at the time when settlement construction is stopped and the international legitimacy is recognized, we will be ready to resume the negotiations."

Our stance is known from the past and our stance remains the same - and in agreement with our brothers in Egypt - which is that we have no objections to negotiations or meetings in principle and we do not set conditions.

And then there was the complication of Israel's foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman. Lieberman hosted Quartet peace envoy Tony Blair and stated that reaching a final-status agreement within two years were unrealistic:

It is important to hold an honest, open dialogue with the Palestinians without sowing delusions that are disconnected with reality and that will only lead to violence and frustration. It is not possible to reach a full agreement within two years.

This is not a realistic goal. We need to begin direct talks without committing to any timeframe.

On Monday, U.S. State Department spokesman Ian Kelly was on the 'silent side' but, at least, was "hopeful":

QUESTION: There’s an unsourced report in the Israeli Hebrew language daily Ma’ariv, and there are a bunch of other reports out there elsewhere, talking about the possibility of an imminent resumption of peace talks between Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Abbas under an American plan.

MR. KELLY: I certainly hope so. I hope it’s before that. But whether it’s realistic or not, I can’t say.

MR. KELLY: Mm-hmm.

QUESTION: True?

MR. KELLY: Well, first of all, we’re not going to discuss any of the private correspondence or private discussions we have had with either side, including with the Israelis. I mean, you know what our goal is. Our goal is to get the two sides to agree to sit down and resume the talks, and so all of our efforts really are really directed toward that. And it wouldn't – I mean, it’s not appropriate for me to talk about what may or may not have been in any kind of private correspondence.

QUESTION: But are you on the verge of re-launching the resumption of talks?

MR. KELLY: I hope so. But I don’t have any information to announce on that.

QUESTION: I think we’re talking about the same report here, which says that the U.S.’s latest proposal envisions a Palestinian state within two years. The Israelis say that’s unrealistic. Is this a real report? I mean, is it coming from you guys?

MR. KELLY: I don’t really have any information about the specifics of that particular report.

QUESTION: Is it realistic, though, to think that the Palestinians could have a state within a couple of years?

Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit was also still "hopeful" about the future. He told reporter following the meeting between Mubarak and Abbas:

Our position is that the [Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's] ideas are taking the Israeli position forward.

This is a protracted process and needs patience, clarity and prudence so that the Palestinians do not find themselves in a difficult position.

Gheit and intelligence chief Omar Suleiman are going to be in Washington and the U.S. Mideast special envoy George Mitchell is going to be in the Middle East next week. Abbas' last words were that he would postpone any decision on whether or not to restart the talks until he sees what happens during Friday's visit to Washington by the two senior Egyptian officials.

The story continues without a conclusion: is there any "change" except in rhetoric?

Israel: Sharon and Netanyahu --- Compare and Contrast

An article by The Jerusalem Post's Gil Hoffman questions Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's desire for peace and accuses him of being a student of the "Sharon school of thought".

It is a curious accusation. Netanyahu was critical of former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's 2004 Engagement Plan. He not only vetoed the Gaza pull-out plan in the Israeli Parliament, the Knesset, but also submitted his resignation prior to the approval of the plan by the Parliament.

Recent events, however, have forced a reassessment. Sharon's spokesman Ra'anan Gissin has no doubts. He states that Netanyahu, like Sharon, moved to the center of the political map after becoming prime minister, formed a national-unity government, and is expected to approve a prisoner exchange with the Palestinians. He continues:

Those who claimed to be Sharon's successor failed because the tsunami waves that came after his disappearance were too much for them. The tragedy is that his fiercest critics such as Netanyahu turned out to be his real successors. Netanyahu hasn't formed a Kadima [Party], but he has realigned his own party in the Center to allow himself to make the decisions he has to make regarding the fate of the Palestinians.

Other Sharon advisers, however, have snubbed Netanyahu and do not put the two leaders in the same category. For instance, former Sharon strategist Lior Chorev says:

Netanyahu is now facing the same poison from extremist elements in his party that Sharon did from him, but without the leadership and courage that Sharon had.

The question is whether Netanyahu has the courage to understand that leadership has a price and will 'walk the walk' and not just 'talk the talk.' Bibi hasn't proven yet that he will do what he says. We are waiting to see if he will be a leader or a slave of his Likud.

Sharon's legislative adviser Oren Magnezy sees eye-to-eye with Chorev:

We will only see if [Netanyahu] has really changed if he takes on the settlers and his political base. When I believe he has made the leap into compromise, he will have to apologize to Sharon, but I don't think he has made that leap yet.

Israel Concerned over the U.S. Arms Deals with "Moderate" Arabs?

According to Haaretz, major arms deals signed between U.S.A and Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates have caused concern among Israeli officials; although Israel had already been informed about the scope and content of these agreements.

On the other hand, a report submitted to Congress by Pentagon states that none of the deals would "alter the military balance in the region." It is claimed that officials in Washington defended the arms deals on the basis that they will boost the moderate axis in the Middle East, deter Iran and in particular strengthen Saudi Arabia's military capabilities in its war against al-Qaeda in Yemen.

These are the contents of deals:

To Egypt:

• Four batteries of Harpoon Block II anti-ship cruise missiles (20 missiles).


• Four fast missile boats.


• 450 Hellfire antitank missiles.


• 156 jet engines for F-16 jets in the wake of a deal in October for the sale of 24 F-16 C/D fighter aircraft equipped with electronic warfare suites. It is stated that the F-16s supplied to Egypt are less advanced than the aircraft of similar type in Israel's arsenal.

To Saudi Arabia:

• 2,742 TOW-2 antitank missiles.

To Jordan:

• 1,808 Javelin antitank missiles with 162 launchers in the wake of a deal in September for more than 80 advanced rocket launchers, of types that have been sold to Israel in the past.

To UAE:

• Ordnance at a value of $290 million.


• 1,600 laser-guided "smart" bombs


• 800 one-ton bombs


• 400 bunker buster bombs.

It is also stated by the newspaper that although the UAE does not pose a threat to Israel and is not considered an enemy state, officials in Tel Aviv are concerned about this deal.

In the same report submitted to Congress, it is mentioned that there have been no arms deals since Barack Obama took office. So, what is really behind Israeli officials' concerns? Is it the fact that its neighbours are going to be armed with better high-tech devices, no matter how "moderate" they are? Or is it a subtle "protest"/"complaint" in order to use the argument that the 'balance of power' may tilt away from additional military aid to Israel from Washington following the 2007 Memorandum of Understanding, which promisws $30 billion to Tel Aviv over the following 10 years?