The Supreme Leader did not kill off negotiations yesterday. Even as he laid down some tough lines --- to his officials as well as the US --- he signalled that they are alive, if only to hold far more dangerous alternatives.
See also Iran Audio Analysis: The Downfall of Ahmadinejad, The Resumption of Nuclear Talks --- Scott Lucas with the BBC and Monocle 24
Tuesday's Iran Live Coverage: Humiliation of Ahmadinejad Continues --- Advisor Mortazavi Arrested
2119 GMT:The Battle Within. Hamidreza Taraghi, a senior member of the conservative Motalefeh Party, hsa said that "the nezam [system] can bear Ahamadinejad, but has no problem with his dismissal either --- the,decision re bearing with him is with the Supreme Leader".
1819 GMT:Sanctions Watch. The US Treasury has sanctioned State broadcasters such as IRIB for helping the Government censor opposition.
The Treasury alsn named IRIB director Ezzatollah Zarghami in measures blocking access to the US financial system.
See also Iran Feature: The Week in Civil Society --- Political Prisoners and Public Executions
Friday's Iran Live Coverage: Wishing Away The Economic Problems
1814 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Mehdi Mahmoudian, journalist and member of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front, has been released from prison on furlough.
Mahmoudian is serving a five-year sentence for assembly and collusion against the regime.
1744 GMT: Foreign Affairs Watch (Syrian Front). With the first NATO Patriot anti-missile systems operational on the Turkish border with Syria, Minister of Defense Ahmad Vahidi has renewed Tehran's criticism of Ankara, “We do not consider the presence of these Patriot systems as beneficial and believe that it will cause misunderstanding among the regional countries."
Last week, a couple of curious stories emerged about the proposed resumption of nuclear talks, suspended since a high-level meeting in June in Moscow, between Iran and the 5+1 Powers (US, Britain, Germany, Russia, France, and China).
Julian Borger of The Guardian declared, "Nuclear Talks with Iran Delayed" because of "internal wrangling" in Tehran. Laura Rozen echoed, "Iran Seen Stalling on Date for Nuclear Talks".
There had to be an explanation --- beyond the blame of Tehran for "internal wrangling" and the declarations of Western officials --- for the clash between Iran's public position welcoming new discussions and the line fed to Borger and Rozen.
1. THE US AND EUROPE WITHDRAW THE "SHUT" FROM "STOP, SHUT, AND SHIP"
Some key Iranian officials have not been that far removed from the "Stop" and "Ship" demands of Washington. President Ahmadinejad, for example, has repeatedly suggested that Iran suspend its enrichment of 20% uranium in exchange for a guaranteed supply from outside powers.
The US and the European 3, however, have maintained the insistence on the closure of the recently-opened Fordoo enrichment plant, located in a mountainside in central Iran. Their argument appears to be that Iran could accept a deal now but, at any point, could re-start 20% enrichment with the installed centrifuges at Fordoo.
That argument has always seemed curious to me. Resuming the enrichment process is not a simple process like turning on a tap. More importantly, an agreement can include provisions for inspection and oversight of Fordoo's development. So why not let the plant operate for enrichment of up to 5%?
If the resumption of talks is announced, watch for any indication from Washington, London, Paris, or Berlin --- possibly done discreetly --- that "Shut" is no longer a requirement.
See also Iran Feature: How a Political Prisoner Found Art for Her Activism
Friday's Iran Live Coverage: The Supreme Leader Tries to Bolster His Popularity
2025 GMT: Smog Watch. An official with the Environmental Protection Agency says 150 industrial units in Tehran Province have been shut because of the high levels of air pollution.
1855 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Detained senior reformist Mostafa Tajzadeh, who was taken to hospital earlier today because of a heart condition (see 1535 GMT), has now returned to prison.
1605 GMT: Smog Watch. An image of air pollution in Tehran --- the smog has forced the closure of schools and Government buildings today and tomorrow:
Jason Rezaian, the Tehran correspondent of The Washington Post, writes:
Level of #pollution in #Tehran today is truly shocking. Local radio got it right, saying going outside in the current conditions is suicide.
— Jason Rezaian (@jrezaian) January 5, 2013
@greenshivz Whatever the cause, no one deserves to have to breathe this.
— Jason Rezaian (@jrezaian) January 5, 2013
Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi speaks of "positive" talks with the International Atomic Energy Agency last week
See also The Latest from Iran (17 December): Seeking Influence on Syria
2053 GMT: Tough Talk of the Day. Back from an academic and media break --- including an appearance on BBC Persian --- to find the Supreme Leader's military advisor, Major General Yahya Rahim-Safavi, doing some chest-thumping: “Major powers and regional ones have no other option but to deal with Iran if they want to have a share of regional interests. The Persian Gulf region and the Strait of Hormuz are influential on economic, political, and cultural issues [of the world] and are very effective from various viewpoints in the world.”
Rahim Safavi declared that Iran "will have the first say" in the Persian Gulf for "many years to come".
See also Iran Report: Activists Fleeing the Assault on Civil Society
The Latest from Iran (15 December): Ahmadinejad Jabs at the Revolutionary Guards
2050 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Here is one way to make the regime mad --- give a prize for freedom of thought and human rights to political prisoners....
Foreign Minister Ramin Mehmanparast lashed out today at the European Parliament's award of the Sakharov Prize to imprisoned lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh and filmmaker Jafar Panahi, under threat of a six-year sentence: "Unfortunately, the European Union and its affiliated bodies have a selective approach to and objectify human rights matters, and pursue their political objectives by raising such issues."
Appearing to miss the point about the recognition of Sotoudeh, a prominent defender of accused activists, and Panahi, Mehmanparast continued, "Instead of offering awards on the basis of political goals, the European Parliament should deal with countless instances of rights violations in European countries such as the miserable conditions of asylum seekers and immigrants, discrimination against Muslims and the suppression of legitimate socio-economic demands of Europeans."
Press TV adds to the wayward criticism by failing to mention in its article that Sotoudeh is behind bars and Panahi is under effective house arrest.
Nuclear negotiators Catherine Ashton & Saeed JaliliWhat is not being made explicit is that the US does not expect reciprocity from Iran. It expects those unilateral concessions.
That offers a stark prospect for Tehran. The Islamic Republic has proclaimed loudly that it wants the renewed talks with the 5+1, accepts the January date, then it does so with the signal that it is willing to make those concessions.
Which is why I'm betting that next week, next month, and beyond January, we will be in a Groundhog's Day of this chatter --- and then the declared March "window" will close for the Iranian Presidential elections.
And then?
See also Iran 1st-Hand: As Sanctions Bite, Life-Saving Drugs Disappear
The Latest from Iran (10 November): Noticing the US-Iran Nuclear Talks
2034 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The young children of detained lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh have reportedly been denied a visit, as the attorney enters the fourth week of a hunger strike over prison restrictions.
Sotoudeh's husband Reza Khandan wrote:
At the visitation area, despite the fact that prisoners are normally granted face to face visits if they present a letter, we were told that we need to go to the prison’s main gate in order to visit with Nasrin.At the main gate, after presenting them with the letter allowing us to see Nasrin in person, we were forced to wait 3 hours. Nima who suffers from asthma started having a cough attack as a result of his cold and the poor air condition.
The prison’s administration office eventually closed and an hour after the official prison visitation hours and after such a long wait, we returned home extremely disappointed, never being able to see Nasrin.
The children were starring at that prison gate for 3 1/2 hours. Every time that gate opened and closed they waited patiently to hear their names so that they could see their mother.
Friday, February 8, 2013 at 10:55