Iran Analysis: 7 Things We Know --- And Do Not Know --- About the Nuclear Talks

Catherine Ashton, lead negotiator for the 5+1 Powers, and Iranian counterpart Saeed Jalili

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1. MORE HIGH-LEVEL TALKS ARE SCHEDULED FOR APRIL

Whatever the questions that follow in the rest of this analysis, whatever the cautions, this is the "positive" development that Iran's chief negotiator Saeed Jalili highlighted and that Western media are emphasising.

I did not expect the 5+1 Powers and Iran to schedule another round of discussions before Tehran's Presidential elections in June. I did not expect enough of a shift by the US and European countries in their demands --- or, alternatively, unilateral concessions by Iran --- to make these more than "holding" talks to stave off consideration of a military option against the Islamic Republic.

To my surprise, there was enough movement to justify not only investment in technical talks in Istanbul on 17-18 March but also the declaration of a high-level gathering on 5 April.

However....

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Iran Live Coverage: No News is Good or Bad News at the Nuclear Talks?

Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili speaks with Al Jazeera English

See also Iran Special: Taking Apart the "Iran's Plan B for a Nuclear Bomb" Scare Story

Iran Follow-Up Video: How Fars News Protected the Oscars from Michelle Obama's Shoulders
Tuesday's Iran Live Coverage: Today's Nuclear Talks in Kazakhstan

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1948 GMT:Oil Watch. Turkey maintained its current import level of three cargoes of Iranian crude oil in February.

Turkey has been importing three Suezmax tankers cargoes a month of Iranian crude oil since September, half of what Ankara used to purchase from Iran.

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Iran Live Coverage: Today's Nuclear Talks in Kazakhstan

Catherine Ashton, lead nuclear negotiator for the 5+1 Powers, and Iranian counterpart Saeed Jalili today

See also Monday's Iran Live Coverage: Ahmadinejad's Advisor Mortazavi Faces Trial

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2138 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Officials, showing corroborating documents, claim Iran is using old tankers --- saved from the scrapyard by foreign middlemen --- to ship oil to China and avoid Western sanctions.

Eight very large crude carriers (VLCCs), each of which can carry close to a day's worth of Tehran's exports, have loaded Iranian oil at sea.

The eight tankers, built up to 20 years ago, can carry about 16 million barrels of oil among them, shipping databases show.

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EA Video Analysis: Iran --- 7-Point Beginner's Guide to the Nuclear Talks

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With Iran and the 5+1 Powers (US, Britain, France, Germany, China, and Russia) meeting next Tuesday in Kazakhstan --- the first high-level discussion of Tehran's nuclear programme since last June --- a 7-Point Beginner's Guide to what is involved and what is likely to happen.

1. THE ISSUES
2. WHERE ARE WE RIGHT NOW?
3. SO WHAT ARE NEXT WEEK'S TALKS? AND WHAT WILL THEY BRING?
4. WILL THEY SUCCEED? (OF COURSE NOT.)
5. SO WHY ARE THEY BEING HELD?
6. WHAT'S NEXT?

7. SO EVERYTHING WILL BE SOLVED IN SEPTEMBER?

And be sure to stick around for the closing line....

Iran Live Coverage: A New --- and Genuine --- Offer in the Nuclear Talks?

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Wednesday's Iran Live Coverage: Detaining the Journalists

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2055 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Amid the inevitable political spin around the IAEA report on Iran's nuclear programme, Al Monitor hands over its summary to David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security.

Unsurprisingly, Albright, with a long-time pattern of hostility towards Tehran, is selective in trying to present an IAEA condemnation of the Islamic Republic. He introduces the new charge that the Tehran Research Reactor, known for its production of medical isotopes, is testing fuel for a heavy water reactor at Arak. Then he puts out the line that new centrifuges at the Natanz enrichment plant --- even though Tehran says they are for 5% uranium only --- are an ominous power play by Iran: “The depressing news is they think they’re strengthening their position by racing ahead with the installation of all these machines."

Al Monitor helps out Albright with the unsupported assessment, "Another possibility is that Iran — despite its frequent protestations to the contrary — is seeking to make nuclear weapons or at least become a “virtual” nuclear weapons state with the capacity to build bombs quickly." Somewhat confusingly, it has the later contradiction --- which is based on information from the IAEA report:

The good news in the report is that Iran in December resumed sending some of its 20%-enriched uranium for conversion into fuel for the TRR. While Iran has added to its stockpile of 20% uranium since the IAEA's last report in November, it is still below what is believed to be an Israeli red line for possible military action.

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Iran Live Coverage: Manoeuvres Over the Nuclear Talks

Iranian State TV on the rejection of the latest US-Europe proposal over Tehran's nuclear programme

See also Iran Interview: Daughters of Opposition Leader Mousavi Speak Out...and Take Risks Doing So
Iran Analysis: US-Europe Strategy --- Break Tehran's Economy for "Real" Nuclear Talks in Autumn
Monday's Iran Live Coverage: Ahmadinejad Refuses to Back Down

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1925 GMT: The Battle Within. The President's website has fired another shot at his rivals: "The judiciary should enforce justice for everyone without prejudice."

Digarban interprets this as an Ahmadinejad dig at the judiciary and Iran Prosecutor General Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei for not moving against corruption, as in the case of 300 "big" bank defrauders.

Ahmadinejad and Mohseni Ejei have been in an ongoing argument over the suspects. Mohseni Ejei has claimed that he sent a request to Ahmadinejad to provide the names of the 300 people, who --- according to Ahmadinejad --- "have put 60 percent of the country's money in their pockets and do not return it". The President claims he has not receive any request.

Mohseni Ejei said in his press conference this week that the judiciary alone follows cases of bank debtors.

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Iran Analysis: US-Europe Strategy --- Break Tehran's Economy for "Real" Nuclear Talks in Autumn

The US-European strategy is to continue with aggressive sanctions to force Iranian concessions --- the "stop, shut, and ship" of suspended 20% enrichment, transfer of 20% stock out of Iran, and closure of the Fordoo enrichment plant --- at the outset of any negotiations.

But when will that occur? Certainly not at the forthcoming talks on 26 February in Kazakhstan between Iran and the 5+1 Powers (US, Britain, France, Germany, China, and Russia)?

Western officials give the answer....

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Iran Document: Supreme Leader's Speech on "The Battle Within" & Talks With US

Over the last 48 hours, we have paid close attention to the Supreme Leader's speech to an audience from Tabriz, noting 1) its place in the "battle within"; especially the fight between President Ahmadinejad, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, and head of judiciary Sadegh Larijani; and 2) its intervention on the nuclear issues and the question of direct talks with the US.

The text of the speech, translated by the US Government's Open Source Center, and posted by Juan Cole on his website:

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Let me say this to you, the American Government officials are unreasonable people. Their words are unreasonable; their actions are unreasonable, and repressive. They expect others to surrender to their unreasonable actions. Well, some do surrender. Some governments, some political elite in some countries, surrender to their audacity and bullying behaviour.

But the Iranian nation, the Islamic Republic is not going to surrender.

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Iran Analysis: 4 Reasons Why Supreme Leader is Still Open to Direct Talks with the US

The Supreme Leader addresses Air Force officers, 7 February 2013

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So why is the Supreme Leader maintaining the opening for direct talks?

1. Khamenei may see the recent, serious political crisis as a distraction which allows him to slip in the possibility of negotiations with the US>
2. The international sanctions are starting to hurt.
3. The Syrian regime will not be able to survive the current crisis, and its fall will be a huge strategic blow to the Islamic Republic --- last week, the head of the Basij militia said Syria is more important to the regime than the province of Khuzestan, in defence of which many thousands of Iranians died during the war with Iraq in the 1980s.
4. The Islamic Republic had hoped that the Arab Spring would bring it new allies in the region. Indeed, the movements have isolated the regime even more.

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Iran Analysis: The US Makes a Non-Offer on the Nuclear Talks

Appearing alongside the European Union's foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, the lead negotiator for the 5+1 Powers in the nuclear talks with Iran, new US Secretary of State John Kerry met in Washington said he looked forward to Ashton's "critical effort" in high-level discussions with the Iranians on 26 February in Kazakhstan.

"We hope that the talks in Almaty in a few days can show some further progress, perhaps open some additional opportunities," Kerry said.

However, the Secretary of State's rhetoric was put in context by the revelation from "Western officials" of the offer to be made to Iran. In exchange for Tehran's steps to close its enrichment plant at Fordoo, which produces 20% uranium, the US and its allies will lift sanctions.

Well, not all sanctions. Not the sanctions levied in 2010, following the American rejection of the Iran-Brazil-Turkey offer in the Tehran Declaration. Not the sanctions levied in 2011 or 2012, including last July's European cut-off of oil imports from Iran and insurance for Iranian oil tankers anywhere in the world. Not the restrictions on Iran's financial and banking sectors, including international transactions via the SWIFT system and payments in Euros or dollars.

No, the only sanctions that may be removed --- in exchange for the "stop, ship, and shut" demand of the US and Europe over 20% uranium, --- are those imposed by Washington ten days ago.

Specifically, the US will lift the ban on transfer of gold and precious metals to Iran. The significance of that measure is that it chokes off alternative forms of payment for Iran's oil and gas, such as Turkey's transfer of gold to Tehran --- which increased 11,000% in 2012 --- for natural gas.

This is only a modified version of Washington's position since last June's stalemate in Moscow at the last high-level talks. First, Iran makes the major concessions on its nuclear programme, giving up 20% uranium enrichment, then there will be negotiations.

This is not the "reciprocity" proclaimed by former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton last autumn. It certainly is not the reciprocity that will be demanded by the Iran.

At best, then, the talks in Kazahstan in ten days are "holding" discussions to stave off military action while Iran endures another six months of economic pressure.

Then the discussions will resume in September, after Iran's Presidential elections. And Washington can then say it is making a genuine offer of "reciprocity": if Tehran will shut the Fordoo plant, the US will lift the sanctions imposed on 6 February 2013.