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Entries in Monocle 24 (58)

Tuesday
Jan082013

Iran Audio Feature: How Serious is the Oil Crisis? --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

Following the Iranian Minister of Oil's admission that oil exports fell 40% between March and December, I spoke with Monocle 24's The Briefing about the economic situation and the political consequences: could this crisis lead to the fall of the regime?

The discussion starts at the 11:16 mark.

Friday
Jan042013

Bahrain Audio Feature: Why the Detention of Photojournalist Ahmed Humaidan Matters --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

See also Bahrain Photo Special: The Life, Work, and Detention of Photojournalist Ahmed Humaidan


I spoke with Monocle 24's The Briefing on Thursday about last week's abduction of award-winning photojournalist Ahmed Humaidan by 15 plainclothes agents and his detention, now in Dry Dock Prison.

But why does the imprisonment of yet another journalist, following the jailings and deaths of others? I spoke about that in the context of continuing protests, repression, and the regime's claims of "reform".

The discussion begins at the 13:05 mark.

Thursday
Dec202012

EA Audio Feature: War in 2013 --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

Al Jazeera English's report from the Democratic Republic of Congo, 2 December


I spoke with Monocle 24's The Daily on Tuesday about the prospects of "War in 2013". We spoke about the likely locations --- Syria, of course, and also Mali --- and the wars already underway but escaping notice, such as the conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Perhaps just as significantly, we talked about the change in how wars are fought, as the US pursues a strategy of "low-cost" intervention through drone attacks, supported by special forces and the attempted use of local armies. And there's a question: in the world of 2013, what place is there for an older institution such as NATO?

The discussion begins at the 1:04.15 mark.

Wednesday
Dec052012

Iran Audio Feature: Downing a US Drone? --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

I spoke with Monocle 24's The Briefing on Tuesday afternoon about Iran's claimed downing of a US ScanEagle drone. We talked about the recent history of US surveillance operations over Iran and discussed the latest incident, assessing the story and the political and military implications.

The discussion begins at the 6:56 mark.

Friday
Nov232012

Syria Audio Analysis: The Latest Insurgent Advances --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

Celebrating insurgents after Thursday's capture of the regime military base near Mayadeen in Deir Ez Zor Province

See also EA Video Analysis: Syria --- Is Assad's Military Crumbling?


I spoke with Monocle 24's The Daily last night about the series of insurgent victories this month, assessing their political as well as military significance.

The discussion, which complementing our new EA Video Analysis, begins at the 17:33 mark.

Monday
Nov122012

Syria Audio Analysis: Evaluating the New Opposition Coalition --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

I spoke with The Globalist this morning about yesterday's announcement of a "Syrian National Coalition" to lead the opposition, including the election of Damascus cleric Moaz al-Khatib as President with prominent dissident Riad Seif and Suhair al-Atassi, one of the few women prominent in the opposiiton, as deputies.

We discussed the manoeuvres that led to the Coalition, its aims, and the likelihood that it can achieve them. Take-away line: the opposition is hoping to establish a "provisional government" in northern Syria, with the backing of the international community for a protected zone --- but can the factions within the Coalition work together to reach that goal?

There is also discussion of the weekend's escalation in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, with Israel firing a "warning missile" after Syrian mortars hit the area.

The conversation starts at the 1:34.45 mark.

Friday
Nov092012

Syria Audio Special: Regime's Leadership Defiant as Opposition's Disintegrates --- James Miller and Scott Lucas with Monocle 24


See Also Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Opposition Still Seeking Leadership

Syria Video and Transcript: President Assad's Interview with Russia Today
Thursday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: What Next for the Opposition?


http://bitly.com/Tu6hNeJames Miller speaks to Monocle 24 about two subjects that made waves this week. The first, an interview that Syrian President Bashar al Assad gave to Russia Today (see our separate feature for the video and the transcript. The bottom line - Assad says he's not leaving Syria after statements by UK's Prime Minister that suggested he could flee to the British Isles if it would end the crisis. Assad is closing his own doors, decreasing the probability of a negotiated settlement to this crisis.

The second story that made waves was the meeting in Doha, Qatar, of the Syrian National Initiative, a new leadership group that was set ti replace (but incorporate some of the leaders from) the Syrian National Council. By late yesterday that initiative had crumbled - the Syrian National Council, the "old guard" of the Syrian opposition leadership, blocked the organization from appointing new leaders, leading to the resignation of many, including Riad Seif whom the new plan was named after. Meanwhile, in a parallel meeting in Doha, the SNC changed its own leadership - increasing the presence of radicals and Muslim Brotherhood members, and eliminating women from the leadership team entirely. By the end of the day, dozens of moderates and liberals (and women) had resigned from the SNC, and the entire delegation from the Local Coordination Committees was drafting a resignation letter.

The direct link to the show can be found here. The conversation starts at 1:07:30.

Scott Lucas also talked with Monocle's "Globalist" program. He points out that Assad, speaking to the world in English, timed this statement to come out during the opposition's talks in Doha. Scott also echoes that the "new leadership" is designed to confront the minority of insurgents who are radical, but it is unclear whether this group will actually gain any traction with elements inside Syria.

There's also a discussion about Turkey's role, and the potential for a no-fly zone in northern Syria.

The conversation can be found here, and starts after 11:30.

Wednesday
Nov072012

US Elections 2012 Audio: Obama's Victory and "What's Next for Foreign Policy" --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

This is one of the most challenging and thus productive interviews I have had on radio and television this year. Jeffrey Kaufman of ABC News and I spoke with Monocle 24's The Globalist around the range of foreign policy challenges facing President Obama even as he celebrated his victory late Tuesday night.

Topics range from the US presence in Afghanistan to the relationship with China to the global economic situation.

To get to the discussion, go to the 1:02.30 mark.

Friday
Oct262012

Syria Audio Feature: Why Insurgent Advance Is More Important Than The Ceasefire --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

Insurgent Sniper in AleppoI spoke early this morning with Monocle 24's The Globalist about the four-day ceasefire for Eid al-Adha and the latest events on the ground in Syria.

My take-away is that the insurgent advances in Aleppo and elsewhere present the Assad regime with a dilemma: either concede the political and military ground and look towards a longer-term ceasefire and a settlement for a transitional government, or regroup and renew the assault in the hope of pushing the opposition back.

My prediction was that the latter will occur, and developments today reinforce that view.

To get to the discussion, open The Globalist's homepage, click on the programme for 26/10, and go to the 12:13 mark.

Tuesday
Oct232012

Iran Audio Feature: The Real Story about the "US-Iran Nuclear Talks" --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

I spoke with Monocle 24's The Daily last night about The New York Times' dramatic but misleading story on Sunday about possible US-Iran "back-channel" discussions leading to high-level talks on Tehran's nuclear programme after the re-election of President Obama.

Offering the "real" details, such as the Iranian quest to get renewed negotiations on its proposal to swap enrichment of 20% uranium for sanctions, I came back to the starting point --- until the US and Europe withdraw their demand for unilateral concessions by Tehran ahead of talks, there is no prospect for an agreement in November or in any other month.

To listen to the discussion, open The Daily's homepage, click on the programme on 22/10, and go to the (1):01.52 mark.

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