On Friday, Reuters published a significant article by Tabassum Zakaria and Mark Hosenball, "Intel Shows Iran Nuclear Threat Not Imminent".
The significance, however, is not in the "Intel": the information in the article is far from new. What is significant is that, in the battle amongst US officials to set the agenda over Iran, that information has not only resurfaced but has gained the upper hand.
The media spin has shifted. Iran is no longer an imminent threat. Although it should still be watched, Tehran is not approaching the Obama "red line" --- the pursuit of the Bomb --- which would bring Washington's endorsement of a strike on Iranian facilities.
Special Report: Intel Shows Iran Nuclear Threat Not Imminent
Tabassum Zakaria and Mark Hosenball
The United States, European allies and even Israel generally agree on three things about Iran's nuclear program: Tehran does not have a bomb, has not decided to build one, and is probably years away from having a deliverable nuclear warhead.
For months, the analysis that "Tehran does not have a bomb, has not decided to build one, and is probably years away from having a deliverable nuclear warhead", put forward in the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate, had been pushed aside. Instead --- partly because of pressure from Congress, partly because of its own drive for tough sanctions --- the Administration had used compliant reporters to put out the spectre of an imminent Iranian threat.
This was just a spectre: there has little if any information since 2007 pointing to a resumption of a militarised Iranian programme. However, politics ruled the day in the presentation of the nuclear issue.
And that is still the case. What changed, with respect to Zakaria and Hosenball, was not some breakthrough of investigative journalism. Rather, key members in the Obama Adminisration, including the President, began to worry that an Israeli attack might become a reality rather than a perpetual warning. And some officials are also seeking a deal with Tehran over the nuclear issue, or at least accepting the resumption of talks.
So the media spin has shifted. Iran is no longer an imminent threat. Although it should still be watched, Tehran is not approaching the Obama "red line" --- the pursuit of the Bomb --- which would bring Washington's endorsement of a strike on Iranian facilities.
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Thursday, August 30, 2012 at 13:51
