Thursday
Feb282013
Syria Analysis: Washington Supports Arming of Insurgents So the Regime Will Negotiate
Thursday, February 28, 2013 at 13:38 | James Miller in EA Middle East and Turkey, Middle East and Iran, US Foreign Policy
Syrian military fires rockets from Mezzeh airport in Damascus on Wednesday.
See also Wednesday's Syria Live Coverage: The Fighting Near Aleppo's Historic Mosque
The US is sending a signal to the regime that the time to negotiate is now. That signal may be heard in Moscow louder than it will be heard in Damascus, but it could put Russia in a spot where they will either have to pressure President Assad or watch as Syria's insurgents are further strengthened.
This, however, is not a full American move to military backing of the opposition. Kerry is hardly a hawk for intervention, and Obama has never signaled that he supports arming the insurgency.
So the questions: what happens if the regime will not make the essential commitment --- the departure of President Assad --- for the negotiations?
Given that the new "non-lethal" military aid is not enough to secure an insurgent victory, what next?