Iraq Feature: The Critical Issue of Succession in Kurdistan (Van Wilgenburg)

Jalal Talabani & Massoud BarzaniIf you wish to understand the future of Kurdish politics and its significant role in the evolution of democracy in Iraq and the Kurdistan region, then an introduction to the question of succession is essential.

This week's case? Jalal Talabani is both the leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Iraqi President. According to Kurdistan Tribune, Talabani has been absent from Iraq when he left for a knee operation on 20 June, feeding speculation about his ill health.

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Turkey Analysis: Facing The Complications of Syria, Iraq, and Kurdistan

Prime Minister ErdoganAt the end of the day, whatever the fate of the Assad regime, Ankara has to face the Kurdistan reality and the importance of a solution of their own Kurdish problem. Given a stronger PKK and a more demanding opposition party BDP on the streets, the Erdogan Government will be pushed to the edge of its rule unless it recognizes this.

For now, apart from preparing his foreign minister to Iraqi Kurdistan, Erdogan is looking for every option to make the Turkish public forget the growing importance of the Kurdistan reality.

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Syria Analysis: Turkey Adjusts Its Strategy Amid Kurdish and Russian Complications

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu meets members of the opposition Syrian National Council on Monday

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Ankara is now heavily investing its political, economic, logistical, and public-relations capacity in the effort to boost the opposition agains the regime. In return, Turkey wants a guarantee that there will be no autonomous region in the new Syria.

That seems a logical strategy, but how it will work in practice ---- given that Kurds hold a significant amount of bargaining power for "democratic autonomy" --- is unclear. Given that the Syrian Kurds are already pursuing and obtaining self-governance in some areas as they fight regime forces, how can they be ignored in the transitional period? 

A conclusion? Ankara must face reality and talk to Syrian Kurds if it wants to finish Assad as soon as possible. 

But then another queston: how does Turkey talks to its own Kurds in these circumstances?

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Turkey Special: Ankara is Overtaken By Events in Syria's Kurdistan

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Last week's Moscow trip was supposed to resolve the Erdogan Government's position, both over Syria and over its domestic affairs. Five days later, it has become history, one that offers no resolution for the emerging difficulties for the Prime Minister and his party.

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Turkey Live Coverage (21 May): Regional and Global Dimensions of "Terrorism"

1630 GMT: After the Kurdistan Regional Government had announced a deal with Ankara that would allow them to export oil through Turkey and on to the international market, bypassing Baghdad; the central Iraqi government warned Arbil and said that the deals must abide by the constitution and laws that govern relations between Baghdad and the Kurdish north. 

1525 GMT: Turkish police detained three suspects for their suspected involvement in a plot to abduct a defected Syrian colonel who fled to Turkey.

1440 GMT: A special ops team officer was killed and five other security personnel were wounded in a clash with the terrorist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Kulp, a district of Diyarbakır province.

As known, PKK members had kidnapped the Justice and Development Party’s (AK Party) Kulp branch head Veysel Çelik earlier.

1120 GMT: The Turkish daily Radikal claims that President Obama, during the Chicago Summit, has ordered the handover of operational control of the early warning radar system to NATO.

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Turkey Analysis: Did US Intelligence Lead to Deaths of 34 Civilians (and Better Relations with Ankara)?

A Wall Street Journal investigation points to the role of US intelligence in the Uludere airstrikes

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The Wall Street Journal claims that the intelligence came from Washington. If this is true, we do not need to ask further about the reason for the Turkish Government's keeping of a secret. Both for general US-Turkish and for specific issues, such as co-operation over the Syrian issue, further enquiries into the Uludere incident would be inconvenient.

Could the deaths of 34 civilians have led to better relations between Ankara and Washington? After all, Turkey and the US are aligned in their policies towards Iraq's Maliki, Syria's Assad, Iran's Ahmadinejad, and Iraqi Kurdistan's Barzani --- so perhaps "collateral damage" in this case has been turned into "collateral benefit".

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Iraq Feature: Prime Minister Maliki Provokes the Kurds (Van Wilgenburg)

Photo: AFPRecently I mentioned the possibility that Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki would try to unsettle current good relations between his rivals in the Iraqiyya faction and the Iraqi Kurds, break down Iraqiyya’s base of support in Kirkuk.

Maliki’s recent decision to hold a Cabinet meeting in the city bore out the prediction, albeit not through an appeal to the Kurds. Instead, he played the Iraqi nationalist card, especially against Massoud Barzani, Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) leader and President of the Kurdistan Regional Government.

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Turkey Live Coverage (26 April): From the Kurdish Language to Iranian Banks

1615 GMT: Istanbul Governor Hüseyin Avni Mutlu has stated that if participants at this year's May Day celebrations cause any trouble in Taksim Square, a celebration will not be allowed next year .

1525 GMT: Today's Zaman claims that the military's April 27 (2007) e-memorandum will be the next case to be considered by the judiciary as it investigates claimed attempts at coups.

Shortly after the ruling AKP government announced that Abdullah Gul was their Presidential nominee five years ago, Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) issued a statement on its website, saying that the military was following the debate over secularism in the presidential election with “concern” and would “openly display its position and attitude when it becomes necessary.”

The statement concluded that "anyone opposing the 'how happy is he who can say I am a Turk' mentality of the founder of the Republic, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, he is the enemy of the Turkish Republic and he will stay as such".

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Turkey Live Coverage (22 March): Military Operations Continue Against Kurdish Group

1920 GMT: Following Israel's confiscation of a Palestinian plot in Valaja village in the West Bank and its plan to turn it into a park for Jewish settlers, a statement released by the Turkish Foreign Ministry said that Israel's settlement activities despite all warnings by the international community are unacceptable.

It is also stated that Israel is blocking the peace process by its negative position and deprive vision of two state solution by physical conditions it creates in the region. 

1725 GMT: Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan said that almost no one earns less than $2 a day in Turkey, and the number of those who earn less than $4 a day is only 3.6 percent.

1650 GMT: A speculation is going on in Ankara that the ruling AKP government has adopted a new policy on the Kurdish issue.

According to officials, the government is abandoning dialogue and negotiations with the leaders of the outlawed terrorist/separatist organisation, PKK. Instead, some believe that the government will hold negotiations with the pro-Kurdish party, BDP; whereas others think that the priority will be given specifically to the Turkish public opinion, in order to prevent increasing anger of Turks against Kurdish people.

Just hours ago, Prime Minister Erdogan called on Kurdish citizens to abandon BDP. If BDP and Ocalan (the imprisoned leader of PKK) are sidelined, then with whom AKP is going to talk? If BDP is wanted to be negotiated with, then the question is that how is it possible to convince the party to change its strategies while the party-Kurdish base alliance is anchored on a nationalistic platform where Ocalan and PKK militia are seen as the leader and "guerillas" of a "freedom-seeking" nation, respectively? 

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Turkey Live Coverage (19 March): New Year Celebrations, Clashes, and the Syria Crisis

See also Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Heavy Fighting in Damascus?

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1815 GMT: Publisher Ragıp Zarakolu and Professor Büşra Ersanlı are facing up to 10 and 15 years in jail respectively, due to charges of leading and aiding a "terrorist organization".

Zarakolu and Ersanli were arrested  in November on terrorism charges as part of an investigation into the Kurdish Communities Union (KCK), claimed as an umbrella group for the urban sections of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).

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