Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Wearing Down the Regime?

Insurgents in Talbiseh, north of Homs, take control of a captured T-62 tank

---

2207 GMT: Syria. Today has been one of the bloodiest days in weeks, according to the Local Coordinating Committees. They report that 205 people have been killed today by Assad forces:

90 martyrs were reported in Aleppo (most in Izzaz), 42 in Damascus and its Suburbs (including 6 who were executed in Douma, 6 in Qaboun neighborhood and 11 who were executed in Razi Orchids), 26 martyrs in Idlib, 29 in Homs (among them 6 martyrs from one family in Deir Baalbeh neighborhood), 7 in Daraa, 8 in Deir Ezzor, 2 in Hama and 1 in Quneitra.

This death toll includes insurgents and civilians, but does not include regime security forces or "shabiha," pro-Assad paramilitary militia. Syrian State media has long since stopped recording the regime's own deathtoll.

What is striking may be the high death toll from Azaz, which was hit by massive air raids earlier today, butthe deaths were widespread, with four provinces reporting deaths in double digits.

2145 GMT: Syria. The video claim of the day:

FSA capture a MANPAD, 4 anti-aircraft guns and hundreds of boxes of ammunition in Dumair, #Damascus youtube.com/watch?v=ADBqZb… #Syria

—   (@HamaEcho) August 15, 2012

For the uninitiated, a "MANPAD" is a "Man-portable air-defense system" --- a weapon system capable of knocking helicopters and planes, possibly even Assad jet fighters, out of the sky. There has been another video of such a weapon in FSA possession, but that was an isolated case in Homs. This video claims to show a weapons depot in Dumair (map), a location east of Damascus where the Free Syrian Army is strong and is growing stronger. The capital city is most vulnerable from the east, and the southwest, so a weapons cache this large, especially one containing this kind of ordinance, could pose a significant threat.

The anti-aircraft guns are also valuable to the FSA. A lesser weapon was apparently responsible for shooting a MIG 23 out of the sky in Deir Ez Zor, so these weapons have proven to be effective. These guns would be even more effective at destroying the feared helicopters that Assad's military has so effectively used against FSA positions in the last several weeks. But these guns can also be used against ground targets, and even light armour.

Beyond this, the fact that the Free Syrian Army is capturing more and more ordnance from regime bases and arms depots is another sign that the FSA is growing stronger, and in many areas has the upper hand. Even if one MANPAD, 4 AA guns, many RPGs, dozens of small arms, and thousands of rounds of ammunition is not enough to fuel a whole war, it is enough to help resupply an insurgent fighting force whose largest limitation may be logistics. It is also enough to serve as a morale boost for the FSA, and serve the opposite purpose for the Assad military.

Click to read more ...

Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A No-Fly Zone?

1924 GMT: Syria. According to the Local Coordinating Committees of Syria, 100 people have been killed today by regime forces:

56 were reported in Damascus and its Suburbs; 17 in Homs; 14 in Daraa; 7 in Deir Ezzor (6 of them were martyred yesterday and their bodies were discovered today); 3 in Idlib; 2 in Hama; and 1 in Lattakia.

That number does not differentiate between civilians and insurgents, and does not include regime casualties. Syrian State media has also stopped reporting number of security forces killed in this conflict.

1900 GMT: Syria. This afternoon there are reports of unusually high levels of regime shelling in Daraa province. So far, there are reliable reports from Busra al Sham to the east of Daraa, (map), Al Harak to the north east (map), Tafas to the north (map, see update below), and perhaps most interesting Ghabagheb, between Daraa and Damascus (map). Furthermore, the LCC reports extremely intense shelling in Darayya, a town southwest of Damascus on the road to Daraa (map). As is probably obvious from looking at these locations, nearly the entire road from Daraa to Darayya is reportedly being shelled. As we see from the reports from Tafas (below), that may not be a coincidence, but may be a response to the Free Syrian Army being increasingly active.

Click to read more ...