Five minutes to take apart Wednesday's Israeli airstrikes inside and to draw two lessons:
1. "The less important is that the Israelis are not going to alter the course of the Syrian conflict --- that is between the Assad regime and the insurgents, and the President is still on his way out."
2. "The significance of the Israeli attack is its impact on the regional situation beyond Syria, and specifically on Lebanon."
Defense Research Facility Hit by Airstrike on WednesdayI joined BBC Radio Scotland this morning to assess the aftermath of Wednesday's Israeli air attacks on Syrian targets.
The take-away line: the primary effect of Israel's airstrikes will not be on the Syrian conflict --- that outcome still turns on the battle between the Assad regime and the insurgency --- and it will not be "retaliation" by Iran and Syria against Israeli territory.
Instead, the likely impact will be on the region beyond Syria. Watch in particular for an escalation of tension between Israel and Hezollah on the Israeli-Lebanese border.
Mass funeral prayer for some of the 80 executed men pulled from the Quweig River near Aleppo on Tuesday
2059 GMT:The Israeli Attack. The White House has given implicit support to the Israeli airstrikes by shifting responsibility to Damascus and invoking the chemical weapons threat.
"We've been very clear that Syria should not further destabilize the region by transferring, for instance, weaponry to Hezbollah," said Deputy US National Security Advisor Ben Rhodes.
"We also, of course, have been very clear beyond that that we're closely monitoring Syria's chemical weapons as well."
Supporters and opponents of Egypt's President Morsi clash in front of the Judges Club, where the judiciary condemned Morsi's decrees, on Saturday (Photo: Hassan Ibrahim/Daily News Egypt)
2113 GMT:Syria. James Miller reports, from several opposition sources, about rumours that a major helicopter base east of Damascus, Marj al Sultan (map), has fallen to the Free Syrian Army.
Blogs and microbloggers have posted claimed video of the FSA attacking the base at night, with tanks:
The FSA controls a nearby early warning radar (which Markito suggests is north of the base), part of the air base, and the FSA is taking the fight to the other half of the base.
If true, this would be another significant victory for the FSA, just 15 kilometres outside the capital. It would indicate that, if the regime has been sacrificing bases in the rest of the country to focus on Damascus, the strategy is not working.
1540 GMT: Former Israeli Ambassador to UN, Gabriella Shalev, says in an interview with the Israeli daily Haaretz that she is “more Zionist, feminist and critical” after her return to Israel.
To summarize, Shalev strongly criticizes Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s “unilateral” Iranian policy, his “support” to the US President Barack Obama’s Republican rival Mitt Romney; all of which Shalev says make Israel “become a burden instead of an asset” in the eyes of the “great, important and true friend”, the United States.
After framing the complicated relations at the UN, Shalev says that the reason of Israel’s delegitimization is the “failure to recognize the right of the Jewish people to exist in Zion” and adds that “without the United States Israel would be denounced and isolated”. On the other hand, Shalev recognizes the “importance of the Iranian threat”, calls Iran as a "terrible country" that "will not sit by quietly."
The "need" for Israel's dependence on Washington on the traditional values of Zionism can be clearly seen in Shalev’s sentence: “The State of Israel cannot exist as an independent state here, in this small and pathetic territory that we received.”
1400 GMT: In a statement, the Palestinian Front for the Liberation of Palestine says Free Syrian Army rebels shot dead its leader Adel Hasan in Deraa refugee camp.
1945 GMT: The State Attirney's Office announced that it is appealing the acquittals of former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in the Jerusalem District Court corruption case to the Supreme Court. At a time when Olmert was mulling a political comeback, he could go to jail if the appeal is rejected.
1900 GMT: Israel Defense Forces have confirmed that a Strela (SA-7) anti-aircraft missile was fired at an Israeli helicopter over the Gaza Strip for the first time last week.
1825 GMT: A rocket fired from Gaza hits Hof Ashkelon Regional Council in southern Israel. No injuries reported.
1730 GMT: The Palestinian Authority's public workers union has called for full strike Wednesday, Thursday and again next week in protest of the government's failure to pay salaries.
1650 GMT: The leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, says the elected government of Gaza in 2006 was "the first model which led to the breakout of a sweeping Arab revolution in the Islamic region."
1645 GMT: After Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah' acknowledged that the group sent the downed drone into Israeli airspace, the Gaza-based Palestinian groups praised Hezbollah.
Al-Mujahideen Brigades described Hezbollah's operation as "unprecedented", whilst Salah al-din Brigades, the military wing of the Popular Resistance Committees, said Hezbollah's improved capabilities would strengthen the resolve of the Palestinian people and deter Israel from attacking them and their holy places.
1430 GMT: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denies that he agreed on Israel giving up the Golan Heights in return of a peace deal in the US-mediated secret talks with the Assad regime.
1045 GMT: Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth reports that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Defense Minister Ehud Barak had secret talks with the Assad Bashar government in the late 2010. It is claimed that Israeli leaders agreed to a full Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights in exchange for a peace agreement.
In September 2010, it was Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan who publicly asked the Netanyahu government to restart indirect talks between Israel and Syria, through the Turkish mediation. However, the Israeli government denied such reports.
2104 GMT:Syria. Parallel to the fighting between the Free Syrian Army and the regime is the relentless campaign of gunfire, shelling, and bombing that the citizens of Syria are subjected to on a daily basis by Assad forces. 140 people were killed today, according to the latest tally by the LCC, but that number will almost assuredly rise, as intense violence is reported in southern Damascus, and elsewhere across the country:
61 martyrs in Damascus and its suburbs, including 25 unidentified martyrs found between Daraya and Qadam and 10 martyrs slaughtered by knives in Deir Asafeer; 24 in Aleppo; 14 in Deir Ezzor; 13 in Homs, 11 in Idlib; 10 martyrs in Hama; 5 martyrs in Daraa; and 2 martyrs in Lattakia.
2056 GMT:Syria. How significant was the FSA victory in Ma'arrat al Nouman? Significant enough that they held a victory parade with their newly captured Syrian Army vehicles:
The latest clashes in Tripoli are being seen as a message related directly to the disturbances in Syria, but into which not too much should be read. They are not about to expand further, despite the heavy casualties, nor is this the last round in a long series. In context, they can be viewed as part of an expected, even normal, course of developments.
There is an obsession with Iran. A settler leader and aspiring right-wing Israeli politician (and former senior aide to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu) was explaining why a peace agreement giving the West Bank --- sorry, “Judea and Samaria” --- to the Palestinians would be militarily unacceptable. He took us to a settlement on the edge of the Samaritan hills and pointed to the towers of Tel Aviv on the horizon. “Imagine,” he said, “if Iran were here!” ”Iran!” I blurted out, my resolve to keep my mouth shut overwhelmed by surprise. “What’s Iran got to do with it?” He looked at me as if I was a child.
Saturday, February 2, 2013 at 8:01 | 
