Syria Analysis: Could Hezbollah Involvement Spark Sectarian Violence?

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Could increased involvement by Hezbollah transform the civil war between regime troops and the insurgency into a open Sunni-Shia/Alawite sectarian conflict, at least in the al-Qusair region?

Sectarianism has played a relatively small role in the Syrian civil war to date. Support for the insurgency, like support for Assad, is ethnically diverse. However, Hezbollah's incursions into the border region, and increasing lawlessness along the Lebanese border area, may be major catalysts for greater sectarian violence, at least between Al Qusayr and the border with Lebanon.

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Syria Live: A Fight Against Hezbollah

2045 GMT: Fighting In Al Qusayr. This video reportedly shows rebels firing a Zu-23-2 anti-aircraft gun at Assad fighters near Al Qusayr today:

The feeling in Homs is grim. Contacts we've spoken to reiterate that they have resisted simplifying this conflict along sectarian lines, but that the regime has forced their hand by utilizing sectarian militias, including Hezbollah, to not only attack rebels but also to attack Sunni civilians. Other people who have told us they have contacts in Homs are saying similar things.

By morning, we may see the violence in central Syria explode in the most clearly sectarian fashion since the start of the conflict.

On the other hand, most opposition members have resisted sectarianism so far. Alawite, Druze, and Christian groups fight inside and alongside elements of the Free Syrian Army. While we've never been this pessimistic about sectarian violence in Syria, we're not without hope that the fighting will be limited to the groups that are already involved.

2000 GMT: Regime Kills its Own? This promises to be the most controversial video of the day:

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Iran Special: How To Create an "Iranian Threat in Iraq" Story (Hat Tip: Washington Post)

"Iran Threat" stories are far from rare. The articles on Tehran and the Bomb have the highest profile, but those on Iranian subversion and support of terrorism are also prominent.

But what happens if you dig into these headline stories? Are they real or do they become "real" because of the narratives and beliefs --- reporters, editors, unnamed current and former officials, and "experts" --- of those creating them?

On 18 January, The Washington Post prominently featured a story with the eye-catching headline, "Iranian-backed Militant Group in Iraq is Recasting Itself as a Political Player".

The opening paragraph was no less sensational...

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Syria Live Coverage: Multiple Bombings in Damascus

1930 GMT: Death Toll Nearing 200. According to the Local Coordination Committees, 189 people have been killed so far today:

96 martyrs were reported in Damascus and its suburbs most of them in the bombing that targeted Al-Hayat Bridge in the capital, 32 in Daraa, 32 in Aleppo, 11 in Homs, 9 in Idlib, 4 in Hama, 3 in Deir Ezzor, and 2 in Raqqa.

"Most of them" in Damascus does not mean all of them. So far the death toll would be a high average amount even if it were not from the car bombs, and the day is not over yet.

1621 GMT: Football Player Killed in Rebel Mortar Attack. Yesterday we reported that rebel mortar attacks hit several locations in the Tishreen district of Damascus, including one of the Presidential palaces. However, the Tishreen neighborhood also contains the most important stadium in Damascus, annd mortars also fell in a front of a hotel housing football players, killing one player, 19 year old Youssef Suleiman of the Homs-based al-Wathbah club, and wounding several others.

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Syria Live Coverage: A "Humanitarian Tragedy"

2120 GMT: Jet Shot Down in Damascus? All day we've been tracking reports of a jet shot down in Damascus. The only problem is that it's unclear a jet ever crashed. However, a reader, Amir, finds this video. Much of it is a collection of videos from today that we have seen. The clip we had not seen is at about the 2:30 mark, when an explosion on the horizon, followed my a smoke cloud, reportedly shows the moment the jet crashed.

We're still not 100% sure what happened, though there are plenty of rumors that the pilot, a Russian, has been captured. We'd treat this as straight rumor until a video is released.

2105 GMT: Battle for Ashrafiyeh District of Aleppo. The rebels have set their sights on another district in norther-central in Aleppo, the Ashrafiyeh District. A microblogger finds several videos, including the one below which appear to show rebels firing mortars at Assad positions from the nearby railway (map):

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Syria Live Coverage: Regime Fires SCUD Missiles on Aleppo?

1934 GMT: Explosions - a Universal Experience. From western Damascus to the eastern suburbs, as well as in the southern districts of the capital, heavy shelling is reported in every corner of Damascus. Across Daraa and Idlib provinces, similar patterns can be seen. It's anecdotal evidence, but it seems that the amount of firepower pounding Syria's cities is even more brutal than on a typical day.

The death toll, which is still rising, reflects this. The LCC now reports that 142 people have been killed nationwide. Even though some of these people were killed last night in Aleppo, this still marks an escalated death toll, and when the total number of those killed in the reported Scud missile attack are counted, the full fury of this violence is evident. Here is the distribution of casualties according to the latest report from the LCC:

fifty one martyrs in Aleppo, most of them were uncovered from the Badrou district masscare yesterday, fifty eight martyrs in Damascus and its suburbs, eleven martyrs in Idlib most of them in Shaghar town, nine martyrs in Homs, five martyrs in Hama, three martyrs in Deir Ezzor, three martyrs in Raqqa, and two martyrs in Daraa.

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Lebanon (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The US Goes After Hezbollah

Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah addresses a Beirut crowd via video link on Ssturday (Photo: Bilal Hussein/AP)

See also Syria Live Coverage: Hezbollah Emerges in the Conflict
Sunday's Bahrain (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Thousands March as Clashes Continue

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1503 GMT: Libya. Police chief Abdel-Salam el-Barghathi has said four detained foreigners have been accused of espionage in addition to proselytising Christianity.

The group --- a Swedish-American, a South Korean, a South African, and an Egyptian --- was arrested last week in the eastern city of Benghazi with tens of thousands of copies of literature about Christianity in their possession.

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Syria Live Coverage: Hezbollah Emerges in the Conflict

2336 GMT: Scud Strikes - Aleppo City. This video, one of several similar, reportedly shows part of one of the buildings that collapsed in the Jabal Badro district of Aleppo, reportedly after the fall of at least one SCUD missile:

2315 GMT: Scud Strikes. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights has released a statement about tonight's alleged SCUD attacks:

8 civilians, including a child, were killed by the bombardment on Jabal Badro, in the Tariq al-Bab neighbourhood of Aleppo. It is thought that the bombs were a surface-to-surface missile. the number of dead is likely to rise due to the large amount of casualties and that there are several people still under the rubble of destroyed buildings. An SOHR activist in the Tariq al-Bab neighbourhood witnessed the desperate cries of a man who had 15 of his family members under the rubble of their house; he also reported witnessing the body of a child being pulled out of a building, the head was detached from the body. Violent clashes are taking place by the police branch in the Zebdiya neighbourhood, also clashes in Bustan al-Qasr. The Jazmatiya neighbourhood was bombarded by the airforce.

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Syria Live Coverage: Insurgents Take Another Major Airbase Near Aleppo

Video from Thursday showing insurgents firing RPGs on the as-Safira airbase in Aleppo Province

See also Bahrain (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Thousands March as Clashes Continue
Saturday's Syria Live Coverage: "Assad Must Be Held Accountable for His Crimes"

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1731 GMT: Defections? An opposition activist tells Al Jazeera that 650 regime soldiers, including 50 officers, have defected in Damascus Province.

1725 GMT: Hezbollah v. Insurgents? At least one Hezbollah fighter and five Syrian insurgents have been killed in clashes in Syrian territory on the border with Lebanon.

Hadi al-Abdallah of the Syrian Revolution General Commission said fighting broke out on Saturday after Hezbollah, in control of eight Syrian border villages, tried to expand into three adjacent Sunni villages held by the Free Syrian Army.

"The Hezbollah force moved on foot and was supported by multiple rocket launchers. The Free Syrian Army had to call in two tanks that had been captured from the Assad army to repel the attack," Abdallah said.

Earlier today a Hezbollah official said two Lebanese men had been killed and 14 wounded while acting in "self-defence" against Syrian insurgents.

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Syria Analysis: Dissecting The Washington Post's Scary "Iran-Hezbollah 50,000 Militiamen in Syria " Story

Head of Iran's Revolutionary Guards Mohammad Ali Jafari announces Tehran's military support for Assad regime, 16 September 2012

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The real question beyond "50,000 militiamen": why is the US Government, backed by an Arab ally, feeding this story to the Post now?

Is this laying the ground for the revelation that the Obama Administration --- contrary to its recent denials --- has been involved in provision of arms to the insurgency, supposedly ensuring that it can block any rise of an Iran-Hezbollah-Assad force after the fall of the regime? Is it another volley in the campaign to separate "good" insurgents from "bad" insurgents such as Jabhat al-Nusra? Is it justification for the ever-increasing US sanctions on Iran, including the measures put in place last Wednesday? All three?

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