Syria Today: Damascus Warns Israel of "All Possibilities"

See also Syria Snap Analysis: What Did Israel Bomb, and Why?
Syria Audio Analysis: The Significance of the Israeli Airstrikes --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24
Middle East Today: Bahrain --- Cabinet Approves Bill to Stop US "Interference"
Sunday's Syria Today: Israel Airstrikes "Hit Military Research Centre"

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2016 GMT: Massacre in Baniyas.

Though it was lost in the news of a massive Israeli airstrike in the capital, and lots of buzz about chemical weapons, this weekend there was a disturbing development on the coast of Syria, in Baniyas. The area is primarily populated by Alawites, however several some villages have a primarily Sunni population, and it appears that it is the Sunni villages that have been attacked. Perhaps more than 100 people have been killed in several villages. An activist has posted this summary, excerpted below, which has links to four graphic videos, though EA has not yet been able to verify the report:

The campaign of shelling and massacres in Banias and its villages stopped today; however, the fear of massacres still continues among the people. Security forces opened the road today to the neighborhood of Ras Al-Naba' and Batraya. The smell of the corpses of the martyrs has spread throughout the city. The Red Crescent accompanied some of the people to remove the bodies, which led to the discovery of more bodies of martyrs, who were field-executed and slaughtered with knives (especially children). There is a huge number of martyrs who have not yet been documented. Regime forces dug up a large hole on the outskirts of the city as a mass grave for the martyrs of Ras Al-Naba'.

The neighborhood of Ras Al-Naba'a and the village of Bayda are declared a disaster-zone and not suitable for further life whatsoever, after witnessing a campaign of ethnic cleansing of the Sunnis on the coast by Assad forces.

Bayda Village shows absolutely no traces of human life. All the homes were burned by security forces and the Syrian Army buried the bodies in mass graves. Activists, however, continue to discover many new bodies unburied in the jungles of the village.

The Syrian regime has recruited Alawite militias to maintain security over Baniyas and much of the countryside on the coast. One man who has been hired to lead this effort is Turkish, Mihraç Ural, the chief of the Alawite Syrian Resistance. A video, apparently leaked by his own supporters onto Youtube, shows him bragging about conducting ethnic cleansing in the area of these massacres, according to Now Lebanon:

“Banias must be soon besieged, liberated and cleansed,” Ural said in a video posted on YouTube on Sunday.

The Syrian-Turkish militant also stressed that “if required we will participate in the battles in Banias and fulfill our national duty.”

The pro-regime militant leader explained that “Banias is the only pathway for those traitors to the sea,” in reference to rebel Free Syrian Army fighters.

“Our job is to cleanse and liberate towns… for [regime] troops,” Ural added.

This video has English subtitles, though EA cannot vouch for its authenticity, except to say that this looks and sounds like other videos of Ural that we have seen:

2002 GMT: Syrian Electronic Hacks Comedy Account.

The Onion, the most informative website in the world (ok, so it's a parody of a newspaper), has had one of their twitter accounts hacked - by the pro-Assad Syrian Electronic Army. Having now reestablished control by changing their Twitter password, they report to have interviewed members of the hacker group, who say that they were just having fun before their impending deaths:

DAMASCUS, SYRIA—After hacking into The Onion’s Twitter account earlier today, members of the Syrian Electronic Army confirmed that the organization simply wanted to have a little fun before soon dying at the hands of rebel forces. “We figured that before they bust in here and execute every single one of us, we might as well have a good time and post some silly tweets about Israel from a major media outlet’s feed...”

A lot of media organizations have been hacked recently by the Syrian Electronic Army. When the AP account was hacked, it briefly crashed the economy. But really, who hacks a comedy Twitter account?

1935 GMT: Washington Says Rebels Did Not Use Chemical Weapons.

Earlier, the agency tasked with investigating claimed chemical weapons use in Syria distanced itself from the statements of UN Weapons Inspector Carla Del Ponte that, based on eyewitness testimony, there was evidence that Syrian rebels used chemical weapons (see update 1425 GMT). Now, White House spokesman Jay Carney has expressed doubts that the Syrian rebels have used chemical weapons:

"We are highly skeptical of suggestions that the opposition could have or did use chemical weapons," said White House spokesman Jay Carney. "We find it highly likely that any chemical weapon use that has taken place in Syria was done by the Assad regime. And that remains our position."

A senior US official separately said that Washington had no information to suggest Syrian rebels had "capability or the intent to deploy or use such weapons."

This statement could be dissected. For instance, Carney may actually be showing his cards here by admitting that the administration thinks Assad used chemical weapons. In previous statements, the administration admitted that there was evidence that chemical weapons were used, and it was concerned that Assad had used them, but they were slightly more ambiguously worded. That's probably reading too deeply into Jay Carney's statements here. The important thing is that the Independent International Commission of Inquiry and the White House surely have access to the same eyewitnesses that Del Ponte is citing, so the detail-less statement by a sole UN inspector doesn't look like it has changed the international community's thinking on the chemical weapons allegations.

1910 GMT: Rockets Hit the Golan Heights.

Israeli territorial sovereignty has been compromised by both rebel fighters and Syrian forces multiple times since the crisis began. Israel has fired back on several occasions, striking the offenders, as well as the airstrikes that Israel says are Hezbollah related.

Two rockets have reportedly landed in the Golan Heights today, according to the IDF, though they did not say whether rebels or the regime was ultimately responsible for their launch:

Two rockets fired from Syrian territory exploded on the Golan Heights on Monday, without causing casualties or damage, an IDF spokesperson said. The rockets exploded in a field near the ceasefire line in the southern Golan, the spokesperson added.

The rocket fire was "apparently connected to the situation inside Syria," she added, suggesting Israel was not targeted but that it was a spillover of fighting between the Syrian regime and rebels. "The Israeli army combed the sector the rockets fell in and informed the UN forces deployed in the Golan," the spokesperson said.

These skirmishes and incidents on Israel's border are likely helping to shape Israel's thinking about its response to the Syrian crisis. Historically, Israel has been more comfortable with a predictable threat than an unstable one. Stories like today's were once rare, but are becoming commonplace. Any analysis of Israeli actions needs to keep in mind the eroding security situation on Israel's border.

1455 GMT: Israeli Airstrike.

We're still analyzing the raw data that sheds light into the scale and scope of the Israeli airstrikes. However, the evidence shows that Israel has conducted a series of coordinated attacks over the course of 4 days. First, on Thursday night, Israel reportedly conducted airstrikes against a site that reportedly housed Iranian-made rockets headed to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Then there were massive airstrikes on early Sunday morning, which we've assessed in a separate feature:

See also Syria Snap Analysis: What Did Israel Bomb, and Why?

What we did not know is that there was a third airstrike, near the Damascus International Airport, according to US officials who spoke to the New York Times:

An American official said a more limited strike early Friday at Damascus International Airport was also meant to destroy weapons being sent from Iran to Hezbollah.

In our assessment we cast doubt on the claims that Iranian rockets were the target of Sunday's massive airstrikes against the heart of Assad's fortress in Damascus. However, this new piece of information also casts doubt against the theory that Iranian-made rockets are the only target here. Iran has used many airports and airbases across the country to supply Assad and his soldiers with arms, ammunition, money, food, and other supplies. However, the Damascus International Airport (DAM) is near the front lines of Assad's fight for the capital. It is occasionally under siege by advancing rebels. It is not the closest or safest way for Iran or the Syrian regime to transport anything to Lebanon. While arms headed towards Lebanon may have been the focus of other airstrikes, this airstrike, and Sunday's, appear to have targeted much more sensitive targets, resources that Assad was using to counter a revolution, not to smuggle to Hezbollah.

Why would Israel do this? One reason is clear - to send a message that if Assad is going to partner with Hezbollah, the price will be extremely high and will threaten the very survival of the regime.

There are other reasons as well, and we'll have a separate analysis up soon.

1425 GMT: Backtracking on Chemical Weapons.

Following the suggestion of an Italian UN arms inspector that rebels may have used chemical weapons (see update 0530 GMT) the commission tasked with investigating these claims has released a statement distancing itself from this suggestion.

The Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic wishes to clarify that it has not reached conclusive findingsas to the use of chemical weapons in Syria by any parties to the conflict. As a result,the Commission is not in a position to further comment on the allegations at this time.

The Chair of the Commission of Inquiry, Paulo Sergio Pinheiro, reminds all parties tothe conflict that the use of chemical weapons is prohibited in all circumstances undercustomary international humanitarian law

Meanwhile, Turkish doctors who have treated victims of a suspected chemical attack in Saraqib last week say that they have not found evidence that sarin was used at all. This matches our own assessment that a potent-but-unidentified weapon may have been used. We are continuing to follow those leads, and may be closer to a breakthrough, which we will publish when we have new confirmed information.

James Miller takes over today's live coverage. Thanks to Scott Lucas for getting us started this morning.

1220 GMT: Israeli Airstrikes

An advisor to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Tzachi Hanegbi,has declared that Israeli airstrikes inside Syria should not bring "an increase in tension with Syria" --- "If there is activity, it is only against Hezbollah, not against the Syrian regime".

Hanegbi said Israel had not formally acknowledged carrying out the raids in an effort to allow President Assad to save face, adding that Netanyahu began a scheduled visit to China on Sunday to signal the sense of business as usual.

The statement, however, is not at odds with our analysis

, "The Israelis are trying to degrade Assad's military capabilities, which just happens to help the insurgents if they decide to make a push on Damascus."

0820 GMT: Aid and Refugees

An investigation by London's Independent on Sunday -- of $1.5 billion pledged by 42 states in January --- indicates that Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Bahrain, and organisations have failed to deliver $650 million:

Saudi Arabia pledged $78m. As of 1 May, the kingdom was recorded as contributing $21.6m. The United Arab Emirates pledged $300m. It has given $18.4m. Qatar, which will spend tens of billions hosting the 2022 football World Cup, pledged $100m to the UN effort. It is recorded as delivering $2.7m. Bahrain, which last month hosted a Formula One grand prix at a recently built $2bn circuit, pledged $20m. There has been no recorded aid given since. Iraq pledged $10m in Kuwait; nothing has yet been recorded in aid delivered.

0540 GMT: Casualties

The Local Coordination Committees claims 116 people were killed on Sunday, including 16 women and 21 children.

Of the deaths, 29 were in Damascus and its suburbs, 21 in Banyas Province, and 19 in Homs Province.

The Violations Documentation Center puts the confirmed death toll at 59,554 since the conflict begin in March 2011, an increase of 171 from Sunday.

Of those killed, 46,766 were civilians, a rise of 139 from yesterday.

0530 GMT: UN Investigator: Suspicion that Insurgency Used Chemical Weapons

A United Nations human rights investigator, Carla Del Ponte, says testimony from the injured indicates that opposition fighters have used the nerve agent sarin.

Del Pontes said the UN independent commission of inquiry on Syria has not yet seen evidence of regime forces having used chemical weapons.

"Our investigators have been in neighboring countries interviewing victims, doctors and field hospitals and, according to their report of last week which I have seen, there are strong, concrete suspicions but not yet incontrovertible proof of the use of sarin gas, from the way the victims were treated," Del Ponte said in an interview with Swiss-Italian television.

She said, "This was use on the part of the opposition, the rebels, not by the government authorities."

0500 GMT: Damascus Warns Israel

Minister of Information Omran al-Zoubi has warned that Israeli airstrikes on weapons shipments and military facilities inside Syria leave "open the door to all possibilities".

On Sunday, the Syrian Cabinet met for three hours in emergency session.

Al-Zoubi did not indicate a specific course of action, but said it was Syria's duty to protect the state from any "domestic or foreign attack through all available means".

Repeating the words of the Deputy Foreign Minister earlier in the day, al-Zoubi claimed the Israeli attacks showed the country's links with "Islamic extremist groups" trying to the Syrian government.

Late Thursday Israeli warplanes struck a weapons shipment inside Syria while on Sunday it struck several targets, which likely included military installations, near Damascus.