Syria Today: Political "Chicken" and the Russian Missiles

Bashar al-Assad & Vladimir PutinInternational politics took over the headlines on Tuesday, with Russia putting out a response to the European Union's lifting of the arms embargo on the insurgency.

Moscow issued a statement that, defying Western pressure, it is sending "weapons systems" to Damascus to prevent "hotheads" taking over the conflict --- a reference to the European decision.

There was confusion, however, over whether Russia was declaring the provision of S-300 missile systems to Syria.

We look even wider in an analysis; has Moscow been unsettled and contained by Western pressure? Or, through deliberate ambiguity, is it successfully rebuffing the US-led demands that it step away from President Assad?

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Syrian National Coalition: No Part in Conference Without Assad Exit

The opposition Syrian National Coalition has officially confirmed that it will not participate in a proposed international "peace" conference in Geneva next month without a guarantee that President Assad will leave power.

The committee adopted a declaration amid a week-long meeting in Turkey, "The participation of the Syrians in any conference is tied to the presentation of a deadline for a solution and giving the necessary binding international guarantees."

Regime Admits Near-Complete Cut-Off of Oil Production

Minister of Oil Suleiman Abbas has told Parliament that production has fallen almost 95% since the start of the conflict.

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Abbas said daily oil production was now 20,000 barrels, compared to 380,000 barrels in March 2011.

Insurgents have captured most of the country's oilfields, mainly in the north and east.

More on "White House Asks for Plans for No-Fly Zones"

The Obama Administration is damping down the story, put out by two of its officials via reporter Josh Rogin --- see earlier entry --- that it has called on agencies to draw up plans for a no-fly zone inside Syria.

There “is no new military planning effort underway with regard to Syria,” Pentagon press secretary George Little said.

National Security Council spokeswoman Caitlin Hayden neither confirmed nor denied the initial story: “I’m not going to discuss our internal deliberations, but we have said for many months that the administration is prepared for a variety of contingencies in Syria and all options are on the table."

"White House Asks for Plans for No-Fly Zones"

Syrian State media claim that regime forces have taken an airbase in Dabaa village near the besieged insurgent-held town of Qusayr, near the Lebanese border.

State news agency SANA declared, "The Army is currently searching for any remaining terrorists hiding in [the airbase] and pursuing fleeing terrorists after eliminating most of the gunmen who were in it and injuring others."

President Assad's forces, aided by Hezbollah fighters, already surround Qusayr on three sides. Control of Dabaa, on the northern side of Qusayr, would cut off the town --- 18 miles from Homs, Syria's third-largest city --- completely.

"White House Asks for Plans for No-Fly Zones"

Two Obama Administration officials have told the on-line newspaper The Daily Beast that the White House has asked the Pentagon to draw up plans for a no-fly zone inside Syria.

The request was made just before Secretary of State John Kerry toured the Middle East last week, promoting an international "peace" conference in Geneva next month.

The officials said, while the dual-track approach was developing, no decisions on use of force have been made:

The White House is still in contemplation mode but the planning is moving forward and it’s more advanced than it’s ever been. All this effort to pressure the regime is part of the overall effort to find a political solution, but what happens if Geneva fails? It’s only prudent to plan for other options.

On 8 May, the National Security Council Principals Committee --- the second-highest body in the Administration for foreing policy --- told several agencies to consider the pros and cons of arming "vetted and moderate elements" of the insurgency, and formal recognition of the Syrian National Coalition as the government of Syria.

Pentagon spokesman Dave Lapan subsequently told The Daily Beast: “There is no new planning effort underway. The Joint Staff, along with the relevant combatant commanders, continue to conduct prudent planning for a range of possible military options.”

Opposition Groups Denounce National Coalition

Amid the failure of the Syrian National Coalition to agree on an expanded leadership in a week-long meeting in Turkey, other opposition groups have put out a bitter denunciation of the umbrella organisation.

Four groups --- the Syrian Revolution General Commission, the Local Coordination Committees in Syria, the Syrian Revolution Coordinators’ Union, and the Supreme Council for the Leadership of the Syrian Revolution --- declared:

We have waited in vain for many months for the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (SC) to take concrete steps, and offered its leadership multiple chances to do so. However, the reality is that there is no doubt that the SC’s leadership has failed to fulfill its responsibility to represent the great Syrian people’s revolution at the organizational, political, and humanitarian levels.

The SC’s continued failure, particularly in the General Assembly, during the last week of meetings in Istanbul, deepens our conviction that the SC, in its current form, is unable to fulfill its obligations due to the ongoing discord among the different parties represented. This negativity has led to the blatant interference of international and regional parties without respect to the national will....

Given the SC’s dysfunction, we feel compelled to re-state our national responsibility as a revolutionary force, to honor the sacrifices of our people, and to fulfill their revolutionary aspirations, particularly in light of the challenges posed by the [proposed international] Geneva 2 conference and the decision-making process regarding the future of our nation and the region.

The four groups rejected the proposed expansion of the Coalition as "no more than a feeble attempt to add persons and groups that have no real impact on the revolution".

They concluded, "We consider this statement to be a final warning to the SC, for the Syrian people have spoken."

Casualties

The Local Coordination Committees claims that 112 people were killed on Tuesday, including 35 in Damascus and its suburbs and 22 in Aleppo Province.

The Violations Documentation Center reports that 61,842 people have been killed in the Syrian conflict since March 2011, an increase of 77 from Tuesday. Of the deaths, 48,049 were civilians, a rise of 38 from yesterday.