Syria Live: The Back-and-Forth Battle in Aleppo

The scene of today's car bomb in central Damascus, which killed at least 15 people (see 1116 and 1151 GMT)

See also Egypt (and Beyond) Live: President Condemns Sectarian Violence
Sunday's Syria Live: Deadly Airstrike in Aleppo

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2150 GMT: Video of Al-Bouti's Assassination. Mohamed Said Ramadan Al-Bouti, often considered Syria's top Sunni cleric, was a staunch supporter of the regime and was killed on the 21st of March by a bomb in a mosque in Damascus. Now, a video, we believe originally posted to a Facebook page, reportedly shows his assassination. The video may be disturbing to some viewers.

Here's what we know. That is Mohamed al-Bouti, and that looks like the Eman Mosque. From this video, this event shows none of the marks of a car bomb, which matches our initial suggestion that the bomb looked like it went off inside the mosque. More interestingly, this may put to rest the question of whether Bouti was assassinated or whether he was collateral damage - he appears to be the target of this attack.

There are many questions about this bizarre video, however. For starters, we appear to be watching video of another screen, perhaps a cell phone or camera, that is playing the video. In other words, we're watching a video of a video. The camera inside the mosque may be hidden. When the explosion goes off, a hole can be seen, perhaps the hole through which the camera is taking the video. In fact, the camera appears to be pushed back and knocked slightly off angle by the explosion. But who filmed this and why was it kept secret? Where is this camera and why does the "hole" visible in the middle of the video then disappear. We have theories, but we're still analyzing the video.

Then there is the mystery of the people who respond to Bouti after the explosion. In particular, the "man in black" approaches Bouti, and then he slumps over. People have suggested that he is attacking Bouti. We're not convinced. Bouti is clearly alive during this incident, though very injured, and so the "man in black" may have been trying to help Bouti when he collapsed. Then the man went to the left side of this shot to see if he could help him, but Bouti was carried off the right side. That may be the same man seen in the end, but further analysis is required.

We'll reanalyze this video as best we can in the coming hours. We're pretty confident that this video is not faked, in the sense that we're confident that this is Bouti speaking, and the explosion seems to gravely injure him, and his injuries in the video seem to match the injuries to Bouti's body. As for the rest of this, we'll continue to analyze the video.

1851 GMT: Syria Rejects UN Chemical Weapons Team. Weeks ago,the Syrian regime sent a request to the United Nations to investigate a reported chemical weapons attack near Aleppo. At the time it was unclear whether the UN team would investigate the other claims as well, including the report that there was a near-simultaneous chemical weapons attack near Damascus.

Today, the Syrian regime has officially blocked the UN team from investigating chemical weapons claims entirely.

“The secretary general... has suggested a supplementary mission allowing the mission to deploy throughout Syrian territory, which is contrary to the demand Syria made to the United Nations,” a ministry official said, cited by state news agency SANA.

The reason appears to be a gripe over transparency. Ban Ki Moon has already assembled a team in Cyprus that is ready to leave for Syria at a moment's notice, but they want total access, a request that the Syrian government does not appear willing to accept:

“My position is clear -- all claims will be examined without delays, without conditions and without exception,” Ban said, adding that a list of 15 chemical experts of the OPCW had been provided and that the bulk of the team would come from the OPCW...

Ban has repeatedly demanded that the physics, chemical and health experts be given “unfettered access” in Syria to determine whether chemical weapons have been used in the two-year-old conflict.

1820 GMT: Bombing Near Heart of Regime. The Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank, and the General Commission for Taxes and Fees are all within 50-100 meters of today's explosion. The Ministry of Interior, at least a half-dozen other ministry headquarters, several major hospitals, and some of the most prominent hotels in the capital are also within 500-1000 meters of this explosion. A car bombing here would send a message to the regime, but if Roula Amin's report (see below) is true, then there may already be rebels inside this incredibly sensitive area of Damascus.

Below is a map of the bomb site, according to the CFDPC, an activist information network focused on Damascus. The site of the explosion is marked in red.

View Syria - 2013 April 8 - EA Worldview in a larger map

1800 GMT: Gunfire in Central Damascus. Roula Amin, a respected journalist, has told Al Jazeera English that there was gunfire that accompanied the car bombing today in Damascus.

"The rebels had been hiding in some of the buildings. When the security forces arrived after the explosion, they started firing at them, and that's when the gun battles erupted.

It's a major attack because despite the heavy security measures that the government had put in place to prevent such attacks, the rebels were able to penetrate it. In the past few days. the government had been launching its own pre-emptive attacks against rebel strongholds, and against what they consider strategic points around the capital.

The regime has denied that there was any gunfire.

If there was gunfire, this may have been a coordinated attack, which would rule out the suggestion that the regime may have been responsible for this blast.

However, it would also be a major development. A coordinated attack has not been seen this deep in the capital. This would suggest that some rebel groups already have a presence in the heart of Damascus.

1611 GMT: Fighting in Aleppo. Though the regime has launched an offensive in the last week to regain districts and suburbs in southeastern Aleppo, they have not made significant advances, and even when they have pushed through the rebel lines there are more reports of new rebel initiatives. In other words, despite a new push from the regime, the rebel fighters in the city appear to be taking the initiative.

We'ren ot the only ones who seem to have noticed. Jenan Moussaa is currently inside Aleppo, not far from the fighting:

I noticed something in #Aleppo this time. Rebels are taking initiative as I can hear regularly sound of outgoing mortars. @akhbar

— Jenan Moussa (@jenanmoussa) April 8, 2013

1607 GMT: Death Toll Rises. According to the Local Coordination Committees, 61 people have been killed so far today nationwide:

31 martyrs were reported in Damascys and its suburbs; 9 in Deir Ezzor; 6 in Daraa; 5 in Homs; 3 in Aleppo; 3 in Idlib; 3 in Hama; and 1 in Raqqa.

The death toll in Deir Ez Zor may have to do with the fact that many surface-to-surface rockets have reportedly landed in several areas there today.

The Local Coordination Committees (LCC) is an activist network operating both inside and outside of Syria. They claim to use stringent verification processes to ensure that a member of the LCC can vouch for any information posted either on their Facebook page or their website. The LCC also cooperates with an independent organization to populate database of those killed in the Syrian conflict, which can be seen at the website for the Center for Documentation of Violations in Syria.

The LCC's casualty figures are often a mix of insurgents and civilians, and never include regime casualties. Syrian State Media has stopped reporting regime casualty figures.

Also see our description of the Local Coordination Committees and how we utilize their reports in the Columbia Journalism Review.

1542 GMT: Fighting in Aleppo. Conflicting reports are emerging about the course of the fighting in southeast Aleppo. This report just came out of the LCC:

FSA gain control over the strategic buidings that face Aleppo sieged airport after fierce clashes with regime forces. The buildings were used as locations for the pro-regime thugs.

We're not able to confirm that at the moment, but it's interesting, perhaps indicating that while the regime is aking its own push, the rebels may be maneuvering near the airport, a development that could derail the Syrian military's plans.

We'll watch Aleppo closely, but reliable news from the front may be hard to come by, for reasons Jenan Moussa illustrated earlier today.

1412 GMT: Regime Offensive in Aleppo. Last week, both the regime and the rebels launched new offensives in Aleppo city. The rebels won several victories in the northern districts, while the regime pushed back the rebels in the south, though eventually they themselves failed to hold that new territory. Earlier, Jenan Moussa reported that the regime had indeed captured Al Azizeh, in the southeast of Aleppo, but now it seems that the situation is not as clear. The rebels appear to still control Marjeh, and battles are ongoing in Al Azizeh:

I was at Marjeh. Situation normal so far. Some civilians moved out last night. Fighting continues in Azizeh btwn rebels & regime. @akhbar

— Jenan Moussa (@jenanmoussa) April 8, 2013

As for Azizeh itself different activists told me that fierce fighting continues in it. We couldn't reach it. Too dangerous. #Aleppo @akhbar

— Jenan Moussa (@jenanmoussa) April 8, 2013

As you can see from the map above, Al Azizeh is west of the Aleppo International Airport, a key base. If it is captured by Assad forces then the regime military should be able to attack from there to Marjeh, potentially linking up with the Aleppo Citadel at the center of the city.

View Syria - 2013 April 8 - EA Worldview in a larger map

1356 GMT: Economy Update. It comes as no surprise that Syria's economy has fallen apart in the last two years, and has actually gotten exponentially worse as this conflict drags on. What may come as a surprise is that even the pro-regime media isn't trying to keep up the pretext that all is well. In the latest assessment of bad news coming out of an increasingly negative Syrian media, Al-Watan reports that due to infrastructure collapse and intense international sanctions, there was a steep decline in foreign trade in 2012, a continuation of a trend that started in 2011.

The study, published in pro-regime daily Al-Watan, showed "the dramatic impact caused by the current crisis" on foreign trade.

The value of Syria's exports registered in the year 2012 dropped to a mere $185 million, a decline of 97.4 percent on the $7.21 billion registered in 2011. In 2010 exports were valued at $11.35 billion.

Imports also suffered an unprecedented sharp decline of 78.4 percent in 2012, dropping to a value of just $3.58 billion from $16.57 billion a year earlier.

It's not just the Syrian media that is noticing. According to the Associated Press, oil production has likely been cut in half (at least) since the start of the uprising, and revenues which one made up a quarter of the regime's budget have likely fallen even further, the result of sanctions. These trends are likely to accelerate as more oil fields fall into rebel hands.

However, unlike in Libya, the Syrian rebels have yet to restart their captured oil fields in any significant way, and some experts predict that it will be unlikely that the rebels will sell a significant amount of oil any time soon.

"A number of challenges exist. In view of their lack of cohesion, the various strands of the armed opposition are unlikely to be able to mobilize in a unitary fashion to produce and export," said Anthony Skinner, Middle East-North Africa chief at the British risk analysis firm Maplecroft.

"Rebels also clearly lack the engineers and qualified workers to ensure uninterrupted production from the oil fields," Skinner added. "Even if they were to do so, the regime would seek to bomb identifiable vehicle tankers to prevent the armed opposition from earning revenue to buy heavy weaponry."

That may already be happening, as several oil fields have been lit on fire in Deir Ez Zor. While the regime has blamed "terrorists," many inside of prominent rebel organizations, from the Syrian Military Councils to the commanders of the Islamist Jabhat al Nusra, have identified oil sales as a key goal of the rebels, one that would help finance their war.

Two pieces of snap-analysis - first of all, the negativity in Al Watan is part of a new trend in the Syrian media. A year ago, State media broadcasts were overwhelmingly positive, as the regime tried to spread the message that they were winning a war on terrorists. Most of the negative press was designed to showcase the terrible actions that the regime accused the "terrorists" of taking part in, including the massacre of innocents. Lately, however, the tactic has shifted. State media sounds increasingly panicked, as it tries to encourage regime loyalists to join the fight in any way possible.

Secondly, neither of these articles addresses the regime's black market. Oil is constantly moving across the border with Lebanon, and shipments of goods, mostly from Iran, are regularly flown into Deir Ez Zor, Aleppo, and Damascus. If the regime did not have foreign lifelines, it may have already collapsed. As it is, even with the foreign support, it is foundering. But the regime's loss has not translated into the opposition's gain, and as the Syrian military already has plenty of equipment at its disposal, and a growing number of die-hard supporters in pro-regime militias, so it's harder to draw a conclusion that an economic collapse will ultimately kill the regime than it was a year ago when the loyalty of Assad's soldiers was very much in question.

1314 GMT: Damascus Bombing. According to Syrian State TV SANA, 15 people were killed and dozens injured in what they say was a car bombing.

SANA reporter said that terrorists detonated a car bomb in a crowded area near Salim Bukhari school, Buaeir Mosque and residential buildings, claiming the lives of at least fifteen people and injuring 53 others according to a preliminary toll.

SANA reporter denied that any clashes took place in the area, as some malicious TV channels alleged, pointing out that some authority personnel fired gunshots in the air to open streets for ambulances.

They have also posted many pictures, some of which are graphic. It's hard to get a clear picture of the bombing site, but the damage could be consistent with a car bomb.

Interestingly, SANA's description of the incident only makes mention of damage to the Buaeir Mosque (map), a nearby school, and adjacent residential buildings. It makes no mention of the Central Bank, which is literally across the street from the mosque, though we'll note that we're not sure where the exact location of the blast was, and it could have been down a nearby side street.

James Miller takes over today's live coverage. Thanks to Scott Lucas for getting us started today.

1151 GMT: Damascus Bomb. State TV's coverage of today's car bomb in central Daamscus (see 1116 GMT):

1136 GMT: Fighting in Homs Province. Activists are claiming clashes in Abil, a small but strategically-located village in southern Homs Province.

The activists claim regime forces are trying to enter Abil, close to the Homs-Damascus highway, by attacking from surrounding checkpoints with tanks and armoured BMPs under the cover of artillery and airstrikes.

On the frontline with insurgents:

1116 GMT: Damascus Bomb. Back from a break to find State TV claiming that a car bomb in central Damascus has killed at least 15 people and injured 47.

The explosion was near Sabaa Bahrat Square, one of the capital's biggest roundabouts. The Syrian Central Bank, a mosque, and a school are located nearby.

There has been no claim of responsibility.

The aftermath:

Smoke over the scene:

0739 GMT: Detained Journalists. The Italian Foreign Ministry has said that four Italian journalists have been detained.

The Foreign Ministry declined to release details, including who abducted the men, out of concern for their safety.

Italian media reported that the four are a reporter from State television RAI and three freelancers who entered Syria earlier this month, working inside the country during the day. They were first reported to have been detianed in northern Syria near the Turkish border on Friday.

0735 GMT: Protest. Photos have been posted of a demonstration in insurgent-controlled Raqqa, complaining that opposition fighters arrested two women for not wearing the veil.

Raqqa, Syria's sixth-largest city, was taken last month in an offensive led by fighters of the Islamist Jabhat al-Nusra.

0525 GMT: Casualties. The Local Coordination Committees in Syria claim 151 people were killed on Sunday, including 48 in Damascus and its suburbs, 39 in Aleppo Province, and 23 in Homs Province.

The Violations Documentation Center 55,752 people killed since the beginning of the conflict in March 2011, an increase of 166 on Sunday. Of the dead, 44,419 are civilians, a rise of 122 from yesterday.

0515 GMT: Aleppo. Attention continued to focus on Syria's largest city on Sunday, as regime forces continued shelling and took back territory in a battle which has now lasted 9 1/2 months.

Journalist Jenan Moussa, inside the city, reported that the Syrian military had taken the Azizeh section and were threatening to establish a line cutting the city. Meanwhile, the regime used airstrikes, which killed at least 15 people on Saturday, throughout the day to put pressure on insurgent-held areas.