Syria Live Coverage: Fighting on the Lebanon Border

Residents flee Sheikh Maqsoud district of Aleppo as fighting spreads

See also Today's Israel, Turkey (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A New Israeli-Turkish Relationship?
Wednesday's Syria Live Coverage: A Snapshot of the Cost of War in Aleppo

---

1840 GMT: Rebels attack Bases Near Ma'arrat al Nouman. Why are the rebels moving so slowly? Perhaps the absolute best answer to this question is found by looking at the Ma'arrat Al Nouman, in Idlib province.

The city, a rebel stronghold, is flanked by two Assad bases, one to the south and the other to the east. These bases have been surrounded, isolated, pounded by mortars and rockets, and raked by snipers. But months have gone by, and the bases are still in regime control. Even with captured firepower, the rebels have been unable to crack the bases' outer defenses. Until the bases can be breached, a significant amount of rebel fighters and firepower is tied down. Furthermore, the bases still have the ability to launch attacks, especially artillery attacks, and the bases have been given significant air support by the Assad regime.

Here's some video reportedly taken near the Wadi Deif base, east of the city (map).

#Syria #Idlib Rebels shelling Wadi Deif Army Base with field cannonyoutube.com/watch?v=xEtWy-…wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=3…

— Mark (@markito0171) April 4, 2013

1753 GMT: Rebels Push Regime Back in Aleppo. Yesterday's news in Aleppo revolved around a Syrian Army offensive in the southern districts (see update 1347 and 1316). Even as we wrote our reports there was news that the rebels were counterattacking. According to the Local Coordination Committees, the rebels have now retaken several key areas near the Aleppo International Airport:

Aleppo: FSA control over Aziza and Ghassan Bridge districts after fierce clashes in between FSA and regime forces, and the withdrawal of regime forces was reported towards Neirab village near by Aleppo International Airport.

1623 GMT: Air Workers In Syria. When I speak to people inside Syria, the humanitarian crisis is a reality - the primary headline that runs through their entire narratives. However, constant misery and slowly worsening conditions don't really make a flashy headlines.

The International Committee of the Red Cross reports that its been given more access to Syria in the last few weeks, and what they have found is not a surprise - a gradually worsening nightmare:

Peter Maurer, president of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), said aid workers had been able to do make more trips into opposition-held areas in the past two weeks, indicating Damascus may be softening its stance on convoys into such territory.

He said the workers were "not pleasantly surprised" by what they found in areas accessible for the first time, with the need for food, sanitation, water and medicine increasing.

"We saw devastation and destruction," he said.

1612 GMT: Death Toll Rises. According to the Local Coordination Committees, 88 people were killed so far today:

31 martyrs were reported in Aleppo; 21 in Damascus and its Suburbs; 11 in Idlib; 10 in Deir Ezzor; 6 in Homs; 6 in Daraa; and 3 in Hama.

See our note on the casualty figures published by the LCC.

1445 GMT: Rebels Gain Ground in Daraa Province. Last week, the Syrian rebels captured Dael (map), a key crossroad north of the provincial capital (see our separate analysis of the significance of the battle).

In the last several days, the rebels appear to have completed their capture of the home of the regime's 49th Brigade, between Dael and Al Harak - effectively a base that was behind rebel lines (map).

Every base the falls provides the Syrian rebels with more supplies, including ammunition and new weapons. This base was also part of the regime's radar network that would protect the southern regions of the country from enemy aircraft. Perhaps this rebel victory is most significant because for the last two weeks the regime's number one priority appears to have been to reach and defend this base, and those efforts have failed. The rebels will now be able to move their equipment and fighters south to Daraa city, north towards Damascus, or west towards the rest of Daraa province.

These videos show the rebel fighters inside the base, as well as some of the videos of the attack itself. A few things to note - those are surface-to-air missiles, note the radar dishes, and also note that one of the videos shows rebel spokesman Abu Jamal showing off a Croatian Rak-12 rocket launcher used to attack the base:

1347 GMT: Aleppo - Slight Correction. A Syrian watcher provides a slight tweak to the information we posted in the last entry:

@jmiller_ea In sheikh said there was a repulsed, not successful,attempt of invasion of regime forces from the factory area

— stApexf (@stApexf) April 4, 2013

Allow me to properly qualify our previous post - the battle lines in all of those places appear to be in flux, and also the map locations are general, not specific. We have tweaked the location of the position to the southeast, as it does appear that the fighting was in the more rural areas, but the exact location of the fighting in the south should still be treated as unconfirmed.

1316 GMT: Aleppo - Tale of Two Cities. Recent headlines in Aleppo tell two completely different stories. Earlier in the week, rebels captured a significant amount of territory in the northeastern districts of the city, but the fighting since then in the northeast has intensified. Kurdish forces have allowed rebels to enter Kurdish areas, and neighborhoods like Sheikh Maqsoud that have been relatively quiet are now places of heavy fighting. Videos show Kurdish and rebel fighters moving together through the streets. Videos also show the regime's response:

The spread of fighting in these areas indicates that the northern and eastern areas of city are one step closer towards falling completely into rebel hands. It also indicates that the few areas of the city that have been a relative refuge may now be plunged into the heart of the conflict.

Then there is yesterday's news of regime victories in the south, both near the airport and to the west of it.

This is a video re: FSA setback in southern Aleppo suburbs: tanks shell FSA positions while fighters retreat youtube.com/watch?v=AJBVEw… #Syria

— Nuff Silence (@NuffSilence) April 3, 2013

Another video taken near the airport highway-probably today. You can hear frantic exchanges on the FSA walkie-talkies youtube.com/watch?v=OIhrQs…

— Nuff Silence (@NuffSilence) April 3, 2013

There are new reports today that the rebels have counterattacked, retaking some of the area on the road to the airport in the southeast:

However, the FSA is reportedly back in control of Assan bridge over the airport road... Not sure how solid their control is. #Syria

— Nuff Silence (@NuffSilence) April 4, 2013

There's also reports that the regime attack into Sheikh Saeed was repulsed, though it's fair to say that the battle lines are very much in flux in these areas.

The map below shows the general locations of recent advances, with rebel wins in green and regime wins in red. Aleppo may be the tale of two cities this week, but it's not the book - nowhere in Aleppo is it the best of times.

View Syria - 2013 April 4 - EA Worldview in a larger map

1249 GMT: "Battle of Armageddon." In his latest assessment from Now Lebanon, Michael Weiss points out that the rebels have effectively isolated Damascus, and will draw closer and closer to the capital, but that they are not capable of capturing it, nor are they really trying. Without air support, no amount of Croatian anti-tank weapons or captured tanks will break Assad's fortresses soon. The rebel strategy is designed to wage psychological warfare against the Assad regime, emaciating its resources until it eventually breaks. As Weiss points out, this will have deadly consequences for Damascus, and there is a good reason why the campaign is being called the "Battle of Armageddon."

Rebels will thus act as both moving targets and guidance systems for the regime’s own war machine, raiding one base in the hopes that it will be cannibalistically powdered by the adjoining. Jahbat al-Nusra is well-poised to be the vanguard fighting force in Damascus since its militants have the fewest reservations about sacrificing themselves. Idriss’ Supreme Military Command, although it disclaims Nusra membership in its ranks, is not above partnering with the caliphate-minded jihadists for precisely this reason.

Exhausting the regime physically and psychologically will proceed apace with these attritional tactics. In addition to casting doubt about the survival of high command figures, the rebels will also try to infiltrate the inner sanctum using proxies (chauffeurs, cooks, aides-de-camp). In February, The New York Times quoted one Syrian Army soldier from a distant province who was assigned to manning a checkpoint near a railway station in Damascus where troops and tanks were being imported: “I didn’t see my family for more than a year. I am tired and haven’t slept well for a week. I have one wish – to see my family and have a long, long sleep. Then I don’t care if I die.” It’s this sense of defeatism the rebels are counting on.

1220 GMT: Syrian Militias Trained in Iran? According to Reuters, "irregular militias" are being sent to a secret base inside Iran to be trained in guerrilla warfare.

Reuters interviewed four fighters who said they were taken on the combat course in Iran, as well as opposition sources who said they had also been documenting such cases. Israel's intelligence chief and a Western diplomat have said Iran, Assad's main backer, is helping to train at least 50,000 militiamen and aims to increase the force to 100,000 - though they did not say where the training occurred.

No one at Iran's foreign ministry was available for comment, but Iranian officials have repeatedly denied military involvement in the Syrian conflict, saying they have only provided humanitarian aid and political support for Assad.

A source in the Syrian government told Reuters that the claim was untrue, but Reuters describes, with significant detail, how men from majority-Alawite areas were shipped to Iran to train alongside Hezbollah fighters from Lebanon.

The program was also described as an "open secret" in some pro-government areas of the country.

James Miller takes over today's live coverage. Thanks to Scott Lucas for getting us started today.

1100 GMT: Economy. Central Bank Governor Adeeb Mayaleh has announced steps to support the Syrian pound, which fell by nearly 25% last month against the US dollar.

Mayaleh said the central bank will "sell foreign currency to banks and exchange institutions ... in a way to guarantee a stable Syrian pound," starting at the beginning of next week.

Syria's foreign reserves were estimated by officials and independent economists at $17 billion before the uprising. Observers say they could be as low as $4 billion now.

1058 GMT: Damascus. Reuters profiles the exodus of residents from the capital, amid growing clashes:

Families once determined to remain in the city are packing up and leaving. Others are scrambling to pull together limited resources and, with a heavy heart, are planning an indefinite absence from the only home they have known.

“My wife barely likes to go away on holiday. And now, who would have thought we’d be packing to leave?” said Ibrahim, who owns a textile business that his family had run for generations in this ancient city. “God only knows when we’ll be back.”

1050 GMT: Insurgent Advance. Back from an academic break to find insurgents claiming success in Deir Ez Zor Province, capturing more than 100 pro-regime militia, weapons, and equipment at an oil station.

0620 GMT: Fighting on Lebanon Border. In a "normal" day in Syria --- the Local Coordination Committees claimed 130 deaths --- the stand-out news was of clashes on the Lebanese border.

The fighting between regime forces and insurgents has grown more intense over the last month, as they vie for control of towns in the area. On Wednesday,the focus was the border town of Arsal, with regime aircraft striking nearby. In one report, a Syrian helicopter flew 20 kilometres into Lebanon to fire two rockets.

Arsal hosts more than 20,000 Syrian refugees, almost half the half the town's population. Scores of Syrians injured in the violence have been brought to Arsal for medical treatment, and fighters and arms have reportedly entered.

Of the 130 deaths claimed by the LCC, 40 were in Damascus and its suburbs.

The Violations Documentation Center reports 55,103 people killed since the beginning of the conflict in March 2011, an increase of 197 on Wednesday. Of the dead, 43,990 are civilians, a rise of 110 from yesterday.