Syria Live Coverage: Britain and France to Lift Arms Embargo on Insurgents?

15 March 2011: Protest in Damascus

See also EA Video Analysis: Syria, 2 Years On --- The Kaleidoscope of Civil War
Syria Audio Analysis: Stories Beyond European Arms Embargo on the Insurgents --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24
Thursday's Syria Live Coverage: The Saudi Support of the Insurgency

---

1832 GMT: Massacre in Daraa. The Daraa Coordination Committee reports that at least 20 people have been found dead near a checkpoint in Daraa after they were arrested:

20 People from Daraa Mahata were martyred under torture at Hamida Taher checkpoint. Their bodies were moved to the national hospital; of which the following martyrs were identified: Sheik Walid al-Sari Abazeed, Mujahed Abazeed, Sheik Musleh Ayyash, Sheik Rabea al-Kakouni, Waseem Ali al-Falouji, Nassar Abu-Nabbout, Youssef al-Mefalani, Abu-Moayad Labash al-Abazeed.

At this point, 5 graphic videos posted to the Daraa Committee's Youtube channel show bodies of men that have some of the hallmark's of torture. Beatings, bruises, what may be burn marks or puncture wounds, black eyes, broken noses, gunshots to the head... the videos are ugly.

The Hamida Tahrir district is just north of Daraa Albalad, the southern half of Daraa that is still in rebel control (map). The checkpoint here, however, is under government control. It has reportedly been used to ensure that rebel spies, sympathizers, and defectors do not reach rebel territory or ferry information back and forth.

1822 GMT: US Exempts Rebels from Sanctions. A significant shift in the way the US Treasury Department deals with the Syrian rebels:

The US government said Friday it would allow American citizens, companies and banks to send money to Syrian opposition forces struggling to topple President Bashar al-Assad.

The Treasury Department move exempts Syrian rebels from broad US sanctions against aid to Syria imposed at the beginning of the 2-year-old government crackdown on opposition forces that has killed an estimated 70,000 people.

1700 GMT: Death Toll Rises. 99 people have been killed so far today nationwide, according to the activist network the Local Coordination Committees:

38 martyrs in Damascus and its Suburbs, 23 in Daraa most of them were torture at Hamida checkpoint; 13 in Homs, 12 in Aleppo,7 in Idlib, 3 in Hama; 1 in Latakia, and 1 in Deir Ezzor

See our note on the casualty figures published by the LCC.

1534 GMT: Assad Running Out of Troops. Michael Weiss has crunched the numbers, and based on his own estimates, the latest report from th Institute for the Study of War, and his (we think accurate) understanding of the progression of this conflict, he believes that Assad is nearly out of soldiers that he is willing to deploy and is massively outnumbered:

Because Assad’s fear of mass Sunni defections impelled him to selectively deploy only the most politically loyal troop contingents, he has had to rely on a third of the Syrian Army’s doctrinal order of battle, or 65,000-75,000 troops out of 220,000. Ad hoc or hodgepodge formations have thus emerged, often woven into the hardcore praetorian divisions. Holliday reckons that the 4th Armored Division and Republican Guard consist of around 26,000 soldiers collectively. The Syrian Special Forces are said to be operating at two-thirds capacity, making them around 12,000-strong. Deployable soldiers from the army’s other conventional divisions constitute about one brigade’s worth per division, or 27,000 troops. Roughly 9,300 soldiers have been killed or wounded by the opposition by June 2012, before the regime stopped reporting its own casualties. Opposition sources estimate that 7,000 more have been killed, and 30,000 more wounded, by end of November 2012. These figures, which don’t take into account impressive rebel victories since late last year, should therefore be subtracted from the estimate of deployable troops (65,000-75,000). The impact on the Syrian military is made more severe by the fact that most of these casualties surely came from the regime’s most relied-upon formations. At the far end of Holliday’s math, this leaves Assad with around 18,700-28,700 conventional troops with which to combat an insurgency that now exceeds 100,000.

But the report is not an optimistic one. Weiss writes that what these numbers hide is the rise in sectarian militias fighting for Assad. This trend will continue, and the conflict could degrade to a militia-on-militia crisis as the Assad regime crumbles.

Read the entire report at Now Lebanon.

There is an asterisk we'd add to Weiss's numbers, a "wild card" so to speak - some of Assad's disloyal troops have been confined to base, mostly bases near Damascus where his loyal troops could watch them. Those bases may come under fire soon. Will they defect? Desert? Join the revolution? Fight? The answer to that question may ore may not be relevant, and it's something to keep an eye one.

1512 GMT: Rebel General Speaks to World. This video was released today, and it shows an address, in English, by rebel General Salim Idriss on the occasion of the 2nd anniversary of the revolution. Idriss, for all practical purposes, is the commander in chief of a large bulk of the rebel fighters:

Free Syrian Army head @gen_idriss vows to fight on calling on fellow countrymen to join the fight @fsa youtube.com/watch?v=yEBHVC…

— ANA English (@ANA_Feed) March 15, 2013

1437 GMT: Rebel Strategy Shift. The Guardian's Mona Mahmood has spoken to a rebel leader in Damascus. He says that the rebels are focused on taking Assad's ports, not just taking Damascus. He also says that the rebels are now prepared to take and hold territory, both in the countryside and in the capital, a shift from rebel strategy just a month ago:

Our new strategy now is to hold the ground liberated from the regime and not to pull out except for life-and-death tactical reasons. Now, we are back in Darryia, and we won't leave it again as we did before, even though the regime is sending troops and tanks every day to take it back. Assad's army come to Darryia almost every day now; we let them come a little way forward so we can open fire against them from all sides. They always pull out at the end of the battle under the heavy fire of the resistance.

Before we did not have such good weapons so we were unable to hold the ground for long. Now, though, it is not perfect, regarding armaments, but it is much better. We have more powerful weapons that can keep us going.

His mention of "good weapons" is interesting. This suggests that the rebels are now confident that they have the manpower as well as the firepower to match the regime in locations that they've captured.

Just a month ago, the rebels began to attack the Jobar district in Damascus. At the time they did not think that they could hold it. Now, not only have they held the territory, but they have pushed deeper into the capital. It seems that no matter how hard the regime counterattacks, the rebel positions in eastern Damascus, and in Darayya, will not be erased.

1420 GMT: Death Toll Rises. According to the Local Coordination Committees, 65 people have now been killed nationwide so far today:

30 martyrs in Damascus and its Suburbs, 13 martyrs in Homs, 11 martyr in Aleppo,7 martyrs in Idlib, 3 martyrs in Hama and 1 martyr in Deir Ezzor

1356 GMT: European Union Won't Lift Arms Embargo. We started the day by noting France's recent comments that France and the UK will arm the Syrian rebels regardless of whether the EU lifts its arms embargo.

Now, the European Union has officially rejected the proposal to lift the arms embargo.

If any country is going to arm the Syrian rebels, it will have to be in defiance of the EU.

1336 GMT: Protests on 2nd Anniversary of Uprising. Two years is a long time to protest, and yet every Friday for exactly two years the Syrian people have taken to the streets to protest against the Assad government.

When those protests started, the people wanted reform. When they were dispersed by teargas, they wanted the removal of the president. After months of being beaten, gassed, arrested, tortured, and shot at, the people demanded the execution of the president. Two years later, with bombs falling, shells exploding, and with food and shelter scarce, the Syrian people are no less brave, and no less defiant.

Everyone who protests in Syria takes a tremendous risk. Once, the risk was that they would be targeted by Assad forces. That risk remains, but it is complemented by the risk that they will be caught in the crossfire, or killed in the indiscriminate explosions that rock the streets of Syria's cities every day.

Below, a few important examples of today's protests:

Al Bab, Aleppo:

The bravery of the Saleh el Din district in Aleppo helped spark Assad's military retribution that eventually dragged the city into the civil war (read a snapshot just before that happened). Today, with most of the neighborhood in ruins from heavy fighting, this video reportedly shows a protest in a small side street to protect the crowd from the weapons of war:

Albukamal, a fully-liberated city in eastern Syria:

Khan Sheikhoun, Idlib province:

Al Waer, not far from the front lines in Homs:

And then there's always Kafranbel, in Idlib province. Today"s messages:

World! Our Agony has revealed that your bragging about humanitarianism is exactly what you must be ashamed of."

"France and Britain! Your polished statements are unable to provent Russia from sending lethal weapons to kill us."

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=480872308645082&set=a.480872095311770.1073741828.404379792961001&type=3&theater

1248 GMT: Death Toll Rises. According to the Local Coordination Committees, 41 people have been killed so far today across Syria:

23 martyrs in Damascus and its Suburbs, 7 martyrs in Homs,5 in Idlib, 3 martyr in Aleppo,2 martyrs in Hama and 1 martyr in Deir Ezzor.

See our note on the casualty figures published by the LCC.

1230 GMT: Rebels Advance Southwest of Aleppo. One of the key areas to watch is southwest of Aleppo. A well-armed contingent of rebel fighters have been slowly dissolving Assad's bases and armor for many months. That group is now closer than ever to attacking Aleppo city directly, a potential catalyst for the breaking of Assad's back in the north. Assad's main bases are in the southern districts of the city, and they are the main focus for these rebel units.

Today, there is news that overnight the rebels have made noteworthy advances in Khan Toman (map). Al Jazeera English reports:

Rebels have reportedly seized army ammunition depots in Khan Toman, located southwest of Aleppo city, in an operation that started Thursday night. The depots reportedly contain 62 warehouses of ammunition.

Rebels say government forces have since shelled some of the depots.

AJE also posts a video showing the rebels in possession of some arms at the depot.

Today, EA's contacts in the Aleppo Media Centre reported that the rebels were in control of at least three Assad security buildings in Khan Toman. Rebels also destroyed at least one tank in the attack.

The AMC also reports that rebels have captured several villages on the outskirts of Al Safira, to the east of Aleppo (map). Readers may remember that Al Safira is home to one of the largest chemical weapons stockpiles in the region. The rebels were close to capturing the town (but not the base), but then a large Assad counterattack dislodged many of the rebel fighters. Over the last few days, however, we're receiving new reports that the rebels are on the advance again and are getting closer to the town.

The town of Al Safira is no more important than any other town. However, if the chemical weapons base falls, it could trigger direct military intervention to secure the weapons. Assad has already proven that he is willing to dedicate large amounts of resources to ensure that this won't happen, so it may be an important subplot in the weeks of fighting ahead.

1200 GMT: U.S. Trains 300 Rebels on Antitank Weapons. Reuters, citing unnamed high-ranking rebel commanders, says that the U.S. has trained a batch of 300 rebel fighters in Jordan on how to use new antitank weapons, and those fighters have now made it back into Syria:

[The High-ranking rebel commander] said, Washington had taken the decision to train the rebels "under the table".

The commander said U.S. officials contacted the opposition General Command and offered to help some months ago. The General Command then asked brigades operating under its leadership to nominate "good fighters" to be trained to use advanced weapons such as anti-tank and anti-aircraft rockets, in addition to learning intelligence-gathering techniques.

Most of the first contingent of 300 fighters came from Damascus, the surrounding countryside, and Deraa, close to the border, because it was easier for them to reach Jordan.

The report suggests that this is just the first group, and that there may be more to follow.

Keep something in mind - when these foreign weapons initially showed up in Daraa province in January, the rebels won a series of surprise victories that have changed the momentum in the south. In the last week, rebels, many using Croatian weapons, have won a string of victories in Daraa province, and are now within reach of surrounding Daraa city. Furthermore, just yesterday SANA released video of what they claim is a shipment of weapons siezed by the Assad government.

If the process to arm rebels ever stopped, it appears that the process may have restarted and is in full swing.

James Miller takes over today's live coverage. Thanks to Scott Lucas for getting us to the afternoon.

1134 GMT: Lebanon. Lebanon's National News Agency reports that gunmen in the northern Lebanese city of Tripoli have set fire to three fuel tankers with Syrian licence plates to stop them crossing into Syria.

Protesters have in the past closed roads to keep the tankers from moving, claiming the fuel is for President Assad's military.

1020 GMT: Lebanon. State news agency SANA has warned that Damascus may strike at insurgents in Lebanon if the Lebanese army does not act, as the regime's patience "is not unlimited".

SANA said the Foreign Ministry told its Lebanese counterpart that a "large number" of fighters had crossed Lebanon's northern border into the Syrian town of Tal Kalakh over the past two days: "Syria expects the Lebanese side to prevent these armed terrorist groups from using the borders as a crossing point, because they target Syrian people and are violating Syrian sovereignty."

Fighting near the border resulted in a large number of casualties, SANA said, before the gunmen retreated into Lebanon.

0849 GMT: Journalists. Syrian authorities have effectively forced Phil Sands, who has reported for The National from Damascus since 2008, out of the country:

t wasn't my choice to leave Syria. Still, I was not dramatically expelled by the authorities or chased out by threats and danger, in the Hollywood fashion of journalists in war zones.

Instead it was humdrum bureaucracy that forced my departure. Three months after I submitted my press credentials for renewal, the Syrian authorities still had not acted on them.

Without a press pass, I couldn't rent a flat, couldn't register at the interior ministry and couldn't move with a modicum of confidence through checkpoints. The lack of paperwork put me under de facto house arrest, leaving no other choice but to pack up my life in Syria.

Sands' difficulties did not end there --- he describes the challenge of getting to Lebanon.

0749 GMT: Detentions. Global Voices highlights the case of web developer Bassel Khartabil, imprisoned in Damascus a year ago today.

Khartabil was the Creative Commons lead for Syria and worked on open-source software projects such as Mozilla Firefox and Fabricatorz.

0619 GMT: Casualties. The Local Coordination Committees report that 132 people were killed on Thursday, including 13 children and six women.

Thirty-seven of the deaths were in Damascus and its suburbs and 18 in Daraa Province.

The Violations Documentation Center records 52,461 deaths since the start of the conflict in March 2011, an increase of 120 from Thursday. Of the dead, 42.251 were civilians, an increase of 97 from yesterday.

0607 GMT: European Arms to Insurgents? We begin by noting once more Thursday's statement by France's Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, initially calling for a lifting of the European Union's embargo on arms to the insurgency.

Because the EU --- with objections from countries like Germany --- is unlikly to take that public step, here is the key part of Fabius' statement:

If unanimous EU support for lifting the measure is lacking, the French and British governments will decide to deliver weapons, Fabius said. France "is a sovereign nation," he added...

You see, Britain and France --- as well as the US and Arab States --- are already involved in private arrangements for shipment of weapons, nominally funded and delivered by Saudi Arabia, to opposition fighters and for training of insurgents at a base in Jordan.

So the real thrust of Fabius' declaration is the gradual move by Paris and London to recognise publicly what they are already doing on the quiet.

We will have more in an Audio Analysis later this morning.